Ysaias Escalona

P DSL Reds

Age 20 RHP 6'0" / 154 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038 peak 0.9 · 2033

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1036ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	18	ROKCIN	10	4	26	5.26	3.14	21.4%	14.5%	—	K 14.5% · BB 18.2% · FIP 4.17
2026	19	ROKCIN	14	11	63	0.99	2.29	24.6%	7.5%	—	K 16.7% · BB 9.4% · FIP 3.20
2027PROJ	20	MLBCIN	—	—	0	4.85	4.85	18.3%	10.8%	—
2028PROJ35% MLB	21	MLBCIN	3	3	17	4.81	4.74	19.6%	10.1%	0.2
2029PROJ57% MLB	22	MLBCIN	5	5	28	4.62	4.50	21.0%	9.3%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsLuis Cohen (age 20) · Jairo Garcia (age 20) · Henry Valencio (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.85

FIP4.85

K%18.3%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%7.5%

Proj IP36

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$31M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.9M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	10	4	26	117	25	17	0	40%	2.6	14.5%	18.2%	-3.6%	0.0%	5.26	4.17	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	10	4	26	117	25	17	0	40%	2.6	14.5%	18.2%	-3.6%	0.0%	5.26	4.17	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	10	4	26	117	25	17	0	40%	2.6	21.4%	14.5%	6.8%	0.0%	5.26	3.14	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	14	11	63	240	59	18	1	79%	4.5	16.7%	9.4%	7.3%	0.6%	0.99	3.20	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	14	11	63	240	59	18	1	79%	4.5	16.7%	9.4%	7.3%	0.6%	0.99	3.20	—
2026	19	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	14	11	63	240	59	18	1	79%	4.5	24.6%	7.5%	17.1%	0.4%	0.99	2.29	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	CIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.3%	10.8%	7.5%	2.8%	4.85	4.85	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	CIN	8	8	49	208	41	21	6	100%	6.2	19.6%	10.1%	9.5%	2.8%	4.69	4.62	+0.4
2029	22	MLB MLE	CIN	8	8	49	209	44	19	6	100%	6.2	21.0%	9.3%	11.7%	2.7%	4.50	4.38	+0.6
2030	23	MLB MLE	CIN	8	8	50	211	46	19	6	100%	6.2	21.8%	8.9%	13.0%	2.7%	4.34	4.24	+0.7
2031	24	MLB MLE	CIN	8	8	50	211	47	18	6	100%	6.2	22.4%	8.6%	13.8%	2.7%	4.22	4.14	+0.7
2032	25	MLB MLE	CIN	8	8	49	206	47	17	5	100%	6.1	22.8%	8.4%	14.4%	2.7%	4.14	4.08	+0.8
2033	26	MLB MLE	CIN	8	8	49	208	48	17	6	100%	6.2	23.0%	8.4%	14.6%	2.7%	4.09	4.06	+0.8
2034	27	MLB MLE	CIN	8	8	48	203	47	17	5	100%	6.0	23.0%	8.5%	14.5%	2.7%	4.09	4.09	+0.7
2035	28	MLB MLE	CIN	8	8	46	193	44	17	5	100%	5.7	22.9%	8.6%	14.3%	2.8%	4.14	4.18	+0.7
2028	21	MLB CTX	CIN	3	3	17	72	14	7	2	100%	5.7	19.6%	10.1%	9.5%	3.0%	4.81	4.74	+0.2
2029	22	MLB CTX	CIN	5	5	28	118	25	11	3	100%	5.6	21.0%	9.3%	11.7%	2.9%	4.62	4.50	+0.3
2030	23	MLB CTX	CIN	6	6	35	148	32	13	4	100%	5.8	21.8%	8.9%	13.0%	2.9%	4.46	4.36	+0.5
2031	24	MLB CTX	CIN	7	7	39	165	37	14	5	100%	5.6	22.4%	8.6%	13.8%	2.9%	4.34	4.26	+0.6
2032	25	MLB CTX	CIN	7	7	41	173	39	15	5	100%	5.9	22.8%	8.4%	14.4%	2.9%	4.26	4.20	+0.6
2033	26	MLB CTX	CIN	7	7	43	182	42	15	5	100%	6.1	23.0%	8.4%	14.6%	2.9%	4.21	4.18	+0.7
2034	27	MLB CTX	CIN	7	7	43	182	42	15	5	100%	6.1	23.0%	8.5%	14.5%	2.9%	4.21	4.21	+0.7
2035	28	MLB CTX	CIN	7	7	42	177	41	15	5	100%	6.0	22.9%	8.6%	14.3%	3.0%	4.26	4.30	+0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		49	49	289	1220	272	106	36	100%	5.9	22.3%	8.7%	13.6%	2.9%	4.35	3.92	+5.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	188	73	25	100%	5.9	22.3%	8.7%	13.6%	2.9%	4.35	3.92	+3.5
Career	—	MLE		24	15	89	357	57	44	1	62%	3.7	16.0%	12.3%	3.7%	0.4%	2.22	3.52	+5.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	34	200	802	128	98	3	62%	3.7	16.0%	12.3%	3.7%	0.4%	2.22	3.52	+2.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKDSL Reds · 63 IPFIP 2.20 → 3.20 (+0.99)K% 24.6% → 16.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.58%	—	×0.680	16.72%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.50%	—	×1.250	9.38%
HR / BF /BF	0.42%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.58%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.20 → 3.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKDSL Reds · 26 IPFIP 3.14 → 4.17 (+1.04)K% 21.4% → 14.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.37%	—	×0.680	14.53%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.53%	—	×1.250	18.16%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.994	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.14 → 4.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ysaias Escalona (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.8%	—	4.41	20.8%	11.4%	148	-0.44	—	—	—
Luis Cohen R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	20	SP-	4.11	17.2%	11.4%	1.9%	.263	4.98	14.1%	3.9%	247	+0.87	3.00	333	88
Jairo Garcia R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	20	SP-	4.47	16.4%	11.3%	2.4%	.298	5.25	10.1%	-1.9%	96	+0.78	3.88	148	88
Henry Valencio R 2019 · 4.15 FIP	20	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.6%	2.0%	.293	5.11	11.9%	-11.9%	14	+0.96	3.48	136	87
Joshua Quezada R 2024 · 4.46 FIP	20	SP-	4.46	18.3%	11.7%	2.6%	.293	4.03	19.6%	10.8%	80	-0.43	3.61	161	87
Robert Colina R 2021 · 4.42 FIP	20	SP-	4.42	19.0%	9.8%	3.1%	.312	3.69	21.5%	12.7%	111	-0.73	3.25	266	86
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	86
Moises Castillo R 2024 · 4.58 FIP	19	SP-	4.58	18.1%	11.7%	2.8%	.269	4.06	19.4%	4.9%	67	-0.52	3.76	104	86
Alejandro Manzano R 2022 · 4.89 FIP	20	SP-	4.89	14.8%	8.6%	3.5%	.347	4.81	15.6%	6.5%	199	-0.08	4.28	273	85
Bryan Polanco R 2022 · 5.18 FIP	20	SP-	5.18	18.2%	14.3%	3.3%	.248	5.58	13.0%	1.2%	243	+0.40	5.18	374	85
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	85
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	84
Reibyn Corona R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	19	SP-	5.02	17.0%	13.1%	3.1%	.290	5.53	14.5%	1.7%	63	+0.51	4.48	190	84
Christian Fernandez R 2018 · 4.50 FIP	18	SP-	4.50	17.0%	12.6%	2.3%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	324	84
Porter Hodge R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	20	SP-	4.20	19.3%	8.8%	2.9%	.336	3.39	24.3%	10.6%	249	-0.81	2.95	349	84
Ulices Campos R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	20	SP-	4.58	17.9%	11.5%	2.8%	.253	5.32	12.0%	1.0%	65	+0.74	4.11	153	84
Gilberto Batista R 2024 · 4.00 FIP	19	SP-	4.00	16.9%	11.4%	1.6%	.308	5.86	14.7%	4.9%	172	+1.86	3.63	250	83
Nolberto Henriquez R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	21	SP-	4.99	16.0%	13.4%	2.8%	.305	5.60	11.3%	-3.1%	52	+0.61	4.99	108	83
Saul Gonzalez R 2021 · 3.66 FIP	21	SP-	3.66	16.1%	8.4%	1.6%	.320	3.24	19.8%	9.6%	70	-0.42	2.94	110	83
Jordany Ventura R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP	4.08	16.8%	8.9%	2.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	219	83
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.2%	265	+0.44	3.20	411	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	47	21.7%	9.0%	1.05	4.33
Jacob Barnes ('25)	1.7	48	22.0%	9.2%	1.15	4.79
Joe Borowski ('08)	2.3	57	18.9%	9.0%	1.05	4.18
Shane Greene ('23)	2.4	59	21.7%	8.6%	1.12	4.50
Tony Fossas ('88-'99, 2 WAR*)	2.1	42	21.9%*	9.3%*	0.99*	3.88*
Ken Dayley ('82-'93, 4 WAR*)	2.9	64	21.8%*	9.1%*	0.97*	4.10*
Ed Vosberg ('86-'02, 1 WAR*)	1.2	47	21.0%*	9.6%*	0.86*	4.06*