Ysaias Escalona — OGILVIE

Ysaias Escalona P DSL Reds

Age 19 RHP 6'0" / 154 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 1.3 · 2032

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 15 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.31

FIP5.31

K%20.6%

BB%15.6%

K-BB%5.0%

ROS IP15

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 15 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$29M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2035	Arb-1	$2M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.4M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$5M		$6M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	10	4	26	117	25	17	0	40%	2.6	14.5%	18.2%	-3.6%	0.0%	5.26	4.17	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	10	4	26	117	25	17	0	40%	2.6	14.5%	18.2%	-3.6%	0.0%	5.26	4.17	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	10	4	26	117	25	17	0	40%	2.6	21.4%	14.5%	6.8%	0.0%	5.26	3.14	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	14	11	63	240	59	18	1	79%	4.5	16.7%	9.4%	7.3%	0.6%	0.99	3.20	—
YTD	19	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	14	11	63	240	59	18	1	79%	4.5	16.7%	9.4%	7.3%	0.6%	0.99	3.20	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	19	ROK RAW	CIN	14	11	63	240	59	18	1	79%	4.5	24.6%	7.5%	17.1%	0.4%	0.99	2.20	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	CIN	11	11	65	275	58	37	8	100%	5.9	21.3%	13.6%	7.7%	2.9%	5.06	4.97	-0.1
2028	21	MLB MLE	CIN	12	12	68	289	63	35	8	100%	5.7	21.8%	12.2%	9.6%	2.8%	4.84	4.72	+0.1
2029	22	MLB MLE	CIN	12	12	72	303	69	33	8	100%	6.0	22.8%	11.0%	11.8%	2.8%	4.60	4.46	+0.4
2030	23	MLB MLE	CIN	13	13	74	315	74	32	9	100%	5.7	23.6%	10.2%	13.4%	2.7%	4.40	4.27	+0.6
2031	24	MLB MLE	CIN	13	13	76	323	78	31	9	100%	5.9	24.1%	9.7%	14.4%	2.7%	4.25	4.14	+0.7
2032	25	MLB MLE	CIN	13	13	77	327	80	31	9	100%	6.0	24.5%	9.3%	15.2%	2.7%	4.14	4.06	+0.8
2033	26	MLB MLE	CIN	13	13	77	327	81	30	9	100%	6.0	24.7%	9.3%	15.4%	2.7%	4.08	4.04	+0.8
2034	27	MLB MLE	CIN	13	13	76	322	79	30	9	100%	5.9	24.7%	9.4%	15.3%	2.7%	4.08	4.08	+0.7
2035	28	MLB MLE	CIN	12	12	74	312	77	30	9	100%	6.2	24.6%	9.5%	15.0%	2.8%	4.13	4.16	+0.6
2036	29	MLB MLE	CIN	12	12	71	298	72	29	9	100%	5.9	24.3%	9.8%	14.6%	3.0%	4.23	4.29	+0.5
2037	30	MLB MLE	CIN	11	11	66	280	67	28	9	100%	6.0	24.0%	10.1%	13.9%	3.2%	4.37	4.47	+0.3
2038	31	MLB MLE	CIN	10	10	62	261	62	27	9	100%	6.2	23.6%	10.4%	13.2%	3.4%	4.55	4.67	+0.2
2027	20	MLB CTX	CIN	5	5	32	135	29	18	4	100%	6.4	21.3%	13.6%	7.7%	3.1%	5.19	5.10	-0.0
2028	21	MLB CTX	CIN	8	8	50	211	46	26	6	100%	6.2	21.8%	12.2%	9.6%	3.0%	4.96	4.84	+0.1
2029	22	MLB CTX	CIN	10	10	61	258	59	28	8	100%	6.1	22.8%	11.0%	11.8%	3.0%	4.72	4.58	+0.3
2030	23	MLB CTX	CIN	11	11	67	283	67	29	8	100%	6.1	23.6%	10.2%	13.4%	2.9%	4.52	4.39	+0.5
2031	24	MLB CTX	CIN	12	12	70	296	71	29	9	100%	5.8	24.1%	9.7%	14.4%	2.9%	4.37	4.26	+0.6
2032	25	MLB CTX	CIN	12	12	72	304	74	28	9	100%	6.0	24.5%	9.3%	15.2%	2.9%	4.26	4.18	+0.7
2033	26	MLB CTX	CIN	12	12	74	312	77	29	9	100%	6.2	24.7%	9.3%	15.4%	2.9%	4.20	4.16	+0.8
2034	27	MLB CTX	CIN	12	12	72	304	75	29	9	100%	6.0	24.7%	9.4%	15.3%	2.9%	4.20	4.20	+0.7
2035	28	MLB CTX	CIN	12	12	70	296	73	28	9	100%	5.8	24.6%	9.5%	15.0%	3.0%	4.25	4.28	+0.6
2036	29	MLB CTX	CIN	11	11	67	283	69	28	9	100%	6.1	24.3%	9.8%	14.6%	3.2%	4.36	4.42	+0.5
2037	30	MLB CTX	CIN	10	10	63	266	64	27	9	100%	6.3	24.0%	10.1%	13.9%	3.4%	4.51	4.61	+0.3
2038	31	MLB CTX	CIN	10	10	59	249	59	26	9	100%	5.9	23.6%	10.4%	13.2%	3.7%	4.70	4.82	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		127	127	757	3197	762	324	98	100%	6.0	23.8%	10.1%	13.7%	3.1%	4.47	4.06	+7.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	201	86	26	100%	5.9	23.8%	10.1%	13.7%	3.1%	4.47	4.06	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		24	15	89	357	57	44	1	62%	3.7	16.0%	12.3%	3.7%	0.4%	2.22	3.52	+5.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	34	200	802	128	98	3	62%	3.7	16.0%	12.3%	3.7%	0.4%	2.22	3.52	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ysaias Escalona (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.31	20.6%	15.6%	2.9%	—	4.71	22.0%	9.8%	205	-0.60	—	—	—
Bryan Polanco R 2022 · 5.18 FIP	20	SP-	5.18	18.2%	14.3%	3.3%	.248	5.58	13.0%	1.2%	243	+0.40	5.18	374	86
Daniel Corniel R 2023 · 5.15 FIP	19	SP-	5.15	20.3%	17.1%	2.9%	.364	4.37	15.7%	3.2%	140	-0.78	3.50	218	84
Reibyn Corona R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	19	SP-	5.02	17.0%	13.1%	3.1%	.290	5.53	14.5%	1.7%	63	+0.51	4.48	190	83
Gage Stanifer R 2023 · 4.78 FIP	19	SP-	4.78	16.6%	14.9%	2.2%	.342	4.35	24.2%	7.9%	259	-0.43	2.85	301	83
Junior Mieses R 2019 · 4.87 FIP	19	SP-	4.87	19.9%	19.2%	1.9%	.296	6.10	18.9%	-1.2%	134	+1.23	4.87	236	83
Janser Lara R 2016 · 5.61 FIP	19	SP-	5.61	20.1%	17.3%	3.7%	.354	5.04	17.9%	4.8%	118	-0.57	2.84	220	80
Alex Santos II R 2021 · 4.57 FIP	19	SP-	4.57	19.4%	19.3%	1.2%	.282	6.11	18.9%	4.2%	189	+1.54	3.51	313	80
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	79
Edgar Isea R 2022 · 5.51 FIP	19	SP-	5.51	19.3%	20.3%	2.7%	.371	5.19	21.4%	-4.1%	98	-0.32	4.50	162	79
Starlyn Castillo R 2021 · 4.17 FIP	19	SP-	4.17	16.4%	13.1%	1.5%	.271	4.76	15.3%	0.9%	117	+0.59	4.17	138	79
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	79
Christian Fernandez R 2018 · 4.50 FIP	18	SP-	4.50	17.0%	12.6%	2.3%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	324	79
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.16	23.1%	9.1%	200	-1.68	3.51	223	79
Lisandro Almonte R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	19	SP-	4.89	16.3%	16.4%	2.0%	.298	4.93	19.6%	4.9%	78	+0.04	3.81	128	78
Kobe Robinson R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SW	4.49	23.2%	14.3%	2.8%	.296	3.44	18.8%	4.9%	84	-1.05	2.98	107	78
Luis Victorino R 2022 · 4.26 FIP	19	SP-	4.26	18.9%	12.8%	2.1%	.301	4.98	15.9%	-5.0%	84	+0.72	4.26	149	78
Nolberto Henriquez R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	21	SP-	4.99	16.0%	13.4%	2.8%	.305	5.60	11.3%	-3.1%	52	+0.61	4.99	108	78
Dylan Bice R 2017 · 4.64 FIP	19	SP-	4.64	16.3%	15.7%	1.7%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	201	78
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	78
Dariel Francia R 2023 · 5.09 FIP	17	SW	5.09	19.8%	17.4%	2.7%	.322	5.13	19.9%	-0.4%	98	+0.04	3.84	134	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.4	67	23.6%	10.4%	1.10	4.40
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04