Alejandro Manzano

P Stockton Ports

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 165 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	22	9	78	6.00	4.05	23.4%	9.2%	—	K 17.2% · BB 11.1% · FIP 4.96
2025	23	AOAK	41	0	67	3.37	3.46	20.8%	7.6%	—	K 15.4% · BB 9.0% · FIP 4.28
2026	24	AOAK	19	2	38	10.04	5.70	18.4%	8.9%	—	K 13.6% · BB 10.6% · FIP 6.67
2027PROJ	25	MLBOAK	—	—	0	5.50	5.50	13.9%	11.1%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBOAK	18	0	19	5.34	5.31	15.6%	10.9%	-0.2
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBOAK	23	0	24	5.27	5.28	16.2%	10.8%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control45Command40

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsCooper Adams (age 24) · Tyler Yates (age 26) · Brad Deppermann (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 138129vR 121

ERA5.50

FIP5.50

K%13.9%

BB%11.1%

K-BB%2.8%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	20	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	10	7	37	175	38	12	4	70%	3.7	14.8%	8.6%	6.2%	3.5%	6.57	4.89	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	DSL Athletics	10	7	37	175	38	12	4	70%	3.7	21.7%	6.9%	14.9%	2.3%	6.57	3.42	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	9	56	253	50	14	8	69%	4.3	13.8%	6.8%	7.0%	4.4%	5.79	5.23	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	9	56	253	50	14	8	69%	4.3	19.8%	5.5%	14.2%	3.2%	5.79	3.92	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	9	78	359	84	33	11	41%	3.5	17.2%	11.1%	6.2%	3.5%	6.00	4.96	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	9	78	359	84	33	11	41%	3.5	17.2%	11.1%	6.2%	3.5%	6.00	4.96	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	9	78	359	84	33	11	41%	3.5	23.4%	9.2%	14.2%	3.1%	6.00	4.05	—
2025	23	A MLE	Stockton Ports	41	0	67	288	60	22	6	0%	1.6	15.4%	9.0%	6.4%	2.4%	3.37	4.28	—
2025	23	A MLE	Stockton Ports	41	0	67	288	60	22	6	0%	1.6	15.4%	9.0%	6.4%	2.4%	3.37	4.28	—
2025	23	A RAW	Stockton Ports	41	0	67	288	60	22	6	0%	1.6	20.8%	7.6%	13.2%	2.1%	3.37	3.46	—
2026	24	A MLE	Stockton Ports	19	2	38	190	35	17	9	11%	2.0	13.6%	10.6%	3.1%	6.2%	10.04	6.67	—
2026	24	A MLE	Stockton Ports	19	2	38	190	35	17	9	11%	2.0	13.6%	10.6%	3.1%	6.2%	10.04	6.67	—
2026	24	A RAW	Stockton Ports	19	2	38	190	35	17	9	11%	2.0	18.4%	8.9%	9.5%	4.7%	10.04	5.70	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	OAK	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	13.9%	11.1%	2.8%	3.3%	5.50	5.50	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	OAK	42	0	44	185	29	20	6	0%	1.0	15.6%	10.9%	4.7%	3.2%	5.34	5.31	-0.4
2029	27	MLB MLE	OAK	36	0	38	158	26	17	5	0%	1.0	16.2%	10.8%	5.4%	3.3%	5.27	5.28	-0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	OAK	18	0	19	80	13	9	3	0%	1.1	15.6%	10.9%	4.7%	3.2%	5.34	5.31	-0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	OAK	23	0	24	101	16	11	3	0%	1.0	16.2%	10.8%	5.4%	3.3%	5.27	5.28	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		40	0	42	178	28	19	6	0%	1.1	15.9%	10.9%	5.1%	3.2%	5.30	4.91	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	133	90	28	0%	1.1	15.9%	10.9%	5.1%	3.2%	5.30	4.91	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		105	27	275	1265	193	118	49	26%	2.6	15.3%	9.3%	5.9%	3.8%	5.95	5.10	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		76	20	200	919	140	86	35	26%	2.6	15.3%	9.3%	5.9%	3.8%	5.95	5.10	-1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AStockton Ports · 38 IPFIP 5.28 → 6.67 (+1.39)K% 18.4% → 13.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.42%	—	×0.740	13.63%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.95%	—	×1.180	10.56%
HR / BF /BF	4.74%	÷1.000	×1.300	6.16%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.28 → 6.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AStockton Ports · 67 IPFIP 3.45 → 4.28 (+0.82)K% 20.8% → 15.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.83%	—	×0.740	15.42%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.64%	—	×1.180	9.01%
HR / BF /BF	2.08%	÷1.113	×1.300	2.43%

Result: FIP 3.45 → 4.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AStockton Ports · 76 IPFIP 4.04 → 4.96 (+0.93)K% 23.3% → 17.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.30%	—	×0.740	17.24%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.38%	—	×1.180	11.06%
HR / BF /BF	3.12%	÷1.164	×1.300	3.49%

Result: FIP 4.04 → 4.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL Athletics · 41 IPFIP 3.76 → 5.12 (+1.36)K% 19.5% → 13.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.54%	—	×0.680	13.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.75%	—	×1.250	7.18%
HR / BF /BF	2.87%	÷0.989	×1.400	4.07%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 98).

Result: FIP 3.76 → 5.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AStockton Ports · 15 IPFIP 4.12 → 5.46 (+1.34)K% 20.3% → 15.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.25%	—	×0.740	14.99%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.06%	—	×1.180	5.97%
HR / BF /BF	3.80%	÷0.945	×1.300	5.23%

Result: FIP 4.12 → 5.46, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKDSL Athletics · 37 IPFIP 3.39 → 4.89 (+1.50)K% 21.7% → 14.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.71%	—	×0.680	14.77%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.86%	—	×1.250	8.57%
HR / BF /BF	2.29%	÷0.902	×1.400	3.55%

Result: FIP 3.39 → 4.89, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alejandro Manzano (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.50	13.9%	11.1%	3.3%	—	5.30	15.9%	5.0%	81	-0.20	—	—	—
Cooper Adams R 2024 · 5.42 FIP	24	SW	5.42	13.0%	12.2%	3.4%	.275	4.32	21.7%	10.4%	141	-1.10	3.05	221	88
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	86
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	86
Aaron Northcraft R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	25	SW	4.37	13.6%	10.2%	2.1%	.286	4.19	16.1%	7.8%	91	-0.18	3.32	252	85
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	84
Ross Ohlendorf R 2008 · 4.73 FIP	25	SW	4.73	16.3%	9.3%	3.3%	.357	4.63	15.4%	7.7%	324	-0.10	3.30	617	84
Conor Steinbaugh R 2024 · 4.74 FIP	25	SU	4.74	16.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.281	6.29	15.0%	2.1%	44	+1.55	4.74	111	84
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	84
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	83
Cullen Kafka R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	24	SW	4.95	14.2%	12.1%	2.8%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	148	83
Ryan Vogelsong R 2001 · 5.34 FIP	24	SU	5.34	14.6%	11.6%	3.7%	.287	4.78	14.9%	5.7%	155	-0.56	3.14	1,184	83
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	83
Robbie Peto R 2023 · 5.75 FIP	25	SW	5.75	15.3%	13.4%	4.1%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	5.39	232	83
Paulshawn Pasqualotto R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	15.6%	9.5%	3.4%	.354	3.77	20.2%	10.8%	111	-1.07	3.73	186	82
Tyler Santana R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	25	SW	4.43	15.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.306	5.01	15.0%	4.8%	193	+0.58	3.37	401	82
Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 4.31 FIP	24	SW	4.31	16.3%	8.9%	2.7%	.277	4.32	19.4%	10.4%	102	+0.01	3.50	186	82
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	82
Donovan Hand R 2013 · 4.72 FIP	27	SW	4.72	12.9%	7.0%	3.3%	.279	4.30	11.1%	6.8%	97	-0.42	4.30	305	81
Lance Cormier R 2006 · 4.55 FIP	25	SW	4.55	12.9%	9.6%	2.4%	.328	4.73	12.7%	4.2%	195	+0.18	3.80	469	80
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	47	15.0%	11.0%	1.26	5.39
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Rodney Myers ('04)	1.2	60	15.0%	10.3%	1.05	5.07
Tom Martin ('07)	1.6	53	15.8%	10.1%	1.02	4.92
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*