Alejandro Manzano

Alejandro Manzano P Stockton Ports

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 165 lbs A

2026 ROS PROJECTION38 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.22

FIP5.22

K%14.8%

BB%10.6%

K-BB%4.2%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 43 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	20	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	10	7	37	175	38	12	4	70%	3.7	14.8%	8.6%	6.2%	3.5%	6.57	4.89	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	DSL Athletics	10	7	37	175	38	12	4	70%	3.7	21.7%	6.9%	14.9%	2.3%	6.57	3.42	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	9	56	253	50	14	8	69%	4.3	13.8%	6.8%	7.0%	4.4%	5.79	5.23	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	9	56	253	50	14	8	69%	4.3	13.8%	6.8%	7.0%	4.4%	5.79	5.23	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	9	56	253	50	14	8	69%	4.3	19.8%	5.5%	14.2%	3.2%	5.79	3.92	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	9	78	359	84	33	11	41%	3.5	17.2%	11.1%	6.2%	3.5%	6.00	4.96	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	9	78	359	84	33	11	41%	3.5	17.2%	11.1%	6.2%	3.5%	6.00	4.96	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	9	78	359	84	33	11	41%	3.5	23.4%	9.2%	14.2%	3.1%	6.00	4.05	—
2025	23	A MLE	Stockton Ports	41	0	67	288	60	22	6	0%	1.6	15.4%	9.0%	6.4%	2.4%	3.37	4.28	—
2025	23	A MLE	Stockton Ports	41	0	67	288	60	22	6	0%	1.6	15.4%	9.0%	6.4%	2.4%	3.37	4.28	—
2025	23	A RAW	Stockton Ports	41	0	67	288	60	22	6	0%	1.6	20.8%	7.6%	13.2%	2.1%	3.37	3.46	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A MLE	Stockton Ports	19	2	38	190	35	17	9	11%	2.0	13.6%	10.6%	3.1%	6.2%	10.04	6.67	—
YTD	24	A MLE	Stockton Ports	19	2	38	190	35	17	9	11%	2.0	13.6%	10.6%	3.1%	6.2%	10.04	6.67	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A RAW	OAK	19	2	38	190	35	17	9	11%	2.0	18.4%	8.9%	9.5%	4.7%	10.04	5.28	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	OAK	5	0	6	24	4	3	1	0%	1.1	14.8%	10.6%	4.2%	3.0%	5.22	5.22	-0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	OAK	—	—	43	214	39	20	10	—	—	18.0%	9.1%	8.9%	4.5%	9.41	6.48	-0.9
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	OAK	68	0	71	300	49	31	9	0%	1.0	16.4%	10.3%	6.2%	3.0%	5.06	5.02	-0.4
2028	26	MLB MLE	OAK	68	0	71	300	52	30	9	0%	1.0	17.4%	10.2%	7.2%	3.0%	4.96	4.93	-0.3
2029	27	MLB MLE	OAK	67	0	70	296	52	30	9	0%	1.0	17.6%	10.2%	7.5%	3.0%	4.94	4.94	-0.3
2030	28	MLB MLE	OAK	65	0	68	287	51	30	9	0%	1.0	17.7%	10.3%	7.4%	3.1%	4.97	5.01	-0.4
2031	29	MLB MLE	OAK	62	0	65	274	48	29	9	0%	1.0	17.4%	10.5%	6.9%	3.3%	5.07	5.14	-0.4
2027	25	MLB CTX	OAK	29	0	30	127	21	13	4	0%	1.0	16.4%	10.3%	6.2%	3.0%	5.06	5.02	-0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	OAK	45	0	47	198	34	20	6	0%	1.0	17.4%	10.2%	7.2%	3.0%	4.96	4.93	-0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	OAK	51	0	54	228	40	23	7	0%	1.1	17.6%	10.2%	7.5%	3.0%	4.94	4.94	-0.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	OAK	54	0	57	241	43	25	8	0%	1.1	17.7%	10.3%	7.4%	3.1%	4.97	5.01	-0.3
2031	29	MLB CTX	OAK	54	0	57	241	42	25	8	0%	1.1	17.4%	10.5%	6.9%	3.3%	5.07	5.14	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		234	0	245	1036	180	107	32	0%	1.0	17.4%	10.3%	7.1%	3.1%	5.00	4.63	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	147	87	26	0%	1.1	17.4%	10.3%	7.1%	3.1%	5.00	4.63	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		105	27	275	1265	193	118	49	26%	2.6	15.3%	9.3%	5.9%	3.8%	5.95	5.10	-1.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		76	20	200	919	140	86	35	26%	2.6	15.3%	9.3%	5.9%	3.8%	5.95	5.10	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alejandro Manzano (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.22	14.8%	10.6%	3.0%	—	4.96	17.2%	7.0%	212	-0.26	—	—	—
Aaron Northcraft R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	25	SW	4.37	13.6%	10.2%	2.1%	.286	4.19	16.1%	7.8%	91	-0.18	3.32	252	89
Scott Burke R 2018 · 4.55 FIP	24	SW	4.55	14.2%	7.7%	3.0%	.316	5.27	14.9%	6.7%	61	+0.72	4.55	119	88
Dylan Cumming R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	24	SW	4.11	16.0%	10.7%	1.8%	.311	4.31	18.4%	9.4%	314	+0.20	3.75	406	87
Tyler Barnette R 2016 · 4.46 FIP	24	SW	4.46	13.0%	10.0%	2.2%	.333	3.99	10.7%	-3.5%	13	-0.47	3.57	173	87
Kevin Johnson R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	24	SW	4.69	11.0%	8.5%	2.6%	.302	5.52	9.9%	-2.0%	26	+0.83	4.69	106	87
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	85
Reece Karalus R 2018 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.73	149	85
David Reid-Foley R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	24	SU	4.68	13.8%	8.8%	3.0%	.308	6.54	16.2%	7.6%	33	+1.86	4.68	110	85
Hunter Hayes R 2023 · 4.53 FIP	22	SW	4.53	13.3%	9.7%	2.4%	.307	4.49	16.5%	4.0%	155	-0.04	3.34	216	85
Devin Burke R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	24	SU	4.27	11.7%	7.0%	2.3%	.275	4.20	13.7%	8.8%	87	-0.07	4.20	149	84
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.16	16.5%	8.7%	206	+0.96	4.20	275	84
Tyler Wehrle R 2023 · 4.06 FIP	23	SU	4.06	15.8%	10.5%	1.8%	.300	5.42	15.1%	3.4%	60	+1.36	4.06	141	84
Raymar Navarro R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	25	SW	4.30	13.1%	11.7%	1.5%	.332	4.29	11.8%	1.0%	41	-0.01	4.29	108	84
Taylor Grover R 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SU	5.03	15.1%	12.9%	2.9%	.229	4.30	18.7%	9.1%	150	-0.73	3.68	239	83
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	83
Mark Peterson R 2015 · 4.89 FIP	24	SU	4.89	11.5%	8.5%	3.1%	.277	4.71	15.9%	5.6%	112	-0.18	4.65	185	83
John Matthews R 2022 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	16.5%	13.0%	2.1%	.264	5.00	14.5%	-0.5%	70	+0.49	4.51	213	83
Juan Paniagua R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	15.7%	11.9%	2.6%	.262	4.63	16.2%	1.8%	93	-0.06	4.57	151	83
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	83
Dylan Spacke R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	24	SU	5.24	16.1%	13.9%	3.2%	.297	4.79	13.6%	0.2%	52	-0.45	2.08	205	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	69	16.9%	10.3%	1.18	5.04
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99