Alejandro Manzano
P
Stockton Ports
Age 24
RHP
6'2" / 165 lbs
A
peak 0.1 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION34 act + 67 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136127vR 118
ERA5.20
FIP5.20
K%14.8%
BB%10.8%
K-BB%4.0%
ROS IP67
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 101 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | DSL Athletics | 10 | 7 | 37 | 175 | 38 | 12 | 4 | 70% | 3.7 | 14.8% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 6.57 | 5.12 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | DSL Athletics | 10 | 7 | 37 | 175 | 38 | 12 | 4 | 70% | 3.7 | 21.7% | 6.9% | 14.9% | 2.3% | 6.57 | 3.42 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 9 | 56 | 253 | 50 | 14 | 8 | 69% | 4.3 | 13.8% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 5.79 | 5.30 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 9 | 56 | 253 | 50 | 14 | 8 | 69% | 4.3 | 19.8% | 5.5% | 14.2% | 3.2% | 5.79 | 3.92 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 9 | 78 | 359 | 84 | 33 | 11 | 41% | 3.5 | 17.2% | 11.1% | 6.2% | 3.1% | 6.00 | 4.72 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 9 | 78 | 359 | 84 | 33 | 11 | 41% | 3.5 | 23.4% | 9.2% | 14.2% | 3.1% | 6.00 | 4.05 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A | Stockton Ports | 41 | 0 | 67 | 288 | 60 | 22 | 6 | 0% | 1.6 | 15.4% | 9.0% | 6.4% | 2.2% | 3.37 | 4.15 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A | Stockton Ports | 41 | 0 | 67 | 288 | 60 | 22 | 6 | 0% | 1.6 | 20.8% | 7.6% | 13.2% | 2.1% | 3.37 | 3.46 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A | Stockton Ports | 15 | 2 | 34 | 169 | 32 | 14 | 9 | 13% | 2.2 | 14.0% | 9.8% | 4.2% | 6.9% | 10.16 | 6.95 | -0.9 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | OAK | 64 | 0 | 67 | 284 | 42 | 31 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.8% | 10.8% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 5.20 | 5.20 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 14.8% | 10.8% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 5.20 | 5.20 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 101 | 453 | 74 | 45 | 17 | — | — | 16.3% | 9.8% | 6.5% | 3.8% | 6.85 | 5.79 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | OAK | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 47 | 30 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.4% | 10.4% | 6.1% | 2.9% | 5.05 | 5.00 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | OAK | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 50 | 29 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.4% | 10.2% | 7.1% | 2.9% | 4.95 | 4.92 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | OAK | 64 | 0 | 67 | 283 | 50 | 29 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.6% | 10.2% | 7.4% | 3.0% | 4.92 | 4.92 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | OAK | 28 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 20 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.4% | 10.4% | 6.1% | 2.9% | 5.05 | 5.00 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | OAK | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 33 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.4% | 10.2% | 7.1% | 2.9% | 4.95 | 4.92 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | OAK | 50 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 39 | 23 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.6% | 10.2% | 7.4% | 3.0% | 4.92 | 4.92 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 120 | 0 | 126 | 532 | 92 | 55 | 16 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.3% | 10.3% | 7.0% | 2.9% | 4.96 | 4.56 | +1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 146 | 87 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.3% | 10.3% | 7.0% | 2.9% | 4.96 | 4.56 | +2.0 | ||
| Career | — | 101 | 27 | 271 | 1244 | 191 | 114 | 48 | 27% | 2.7 | 15.3% | 9.2% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 5.90 | 5.07 | +1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 74 | 20 | 200 | 917 | 141 | 84 | 35 | 27% | 2.7 | 15.3% | 9.2% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 5.90 | 5.07 | +0.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alejandro Manzano (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.20 | 14.8% | 10.8% | 2.9% | — | 4.95 | 17.2% | 6.9% | 203 | -0.25 | — | — | — |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.50 | 13.6% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .286 | 4.16 | 16.1% | 7.8% | 91 | -0.34 | 3.28 | 252 | 89 |
| Dylan Cumming R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.25 | 16.0% | 10.7% | 2.1% | .311 | 4.09 | 18.9% | 10.2% | 274 | -0.16 | 3.69 | 366 | 89 |
| Tyler Barnette R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.53 | 13.0% | 10.0% | 2.3% | .333 | 3.99 | 10.7% | -3.5% | 13 | -0.54 | 3.53 | 173 | 87 |
| Scott Burke R 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.84 | 14.2% | 7.7% | 3.6% | .316 | 5.01 | 14.9% | 6.7% | 61 | +0.17 | 4.84 | 119 | 87 |
| Conor Steinbaugh R 2027 · 4.77 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.77 | 16.0% | 9.9% | 3.2% | .281 | 6.87 | 14.3% | 0.8% | 39 | +2.10 | 4.77 | 107 | 87 |
| Cooper Adams R 2026 · 5.35 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.35 | 13.0% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .275 | 3.92 | 22.5% | 11.6% | 118 | -1.43 | 2.99 | 197 | 87 |
| Kevin Johnson R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.59 | 11.0% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .302 | 5.48 | 9.9% | -2.0% | 26 | +0.89 | 4.59 | 106 | 87 |
| Brad Deppermann R 2027 · 4.65 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.65 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 3.2% | .289 | 3.44 | 20.0% | 7.8% | 45 | -1.21 | 1.94 | 143 | 85 |
| Reece Karalus R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.81 | 15.4% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.74 | 149 | 84 |
| Devin Burke R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.61 | 11.7% | 7.0% | 3.0% | .275 | 3.97 | 13.7% | 8.8% | 87 | -0.64 | 3.97 | 149 | 84 |
| Daniel Concepcion R 2024 · 5.38 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.38 | 13.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 110 | 83 |
| Daniel Blair R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.20 | 16.6% | 10.0% | 2.2% | .284 | 4.38 | 17.0% | 7.8% | 78 | +0.18 | 4.20 | 171 | 83 |
| David Reid-Foley R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.89 | 13.8% | 8.8% | 3.4% | .308 | 6.53 | 16.2% | 7.6% | 33 | +1.64 | 4.89 | 110 | 83 |
| Cullen Kafka R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.88 | 14.2% | 12.1% | 2.6% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 148 | 83 |
| Nick Hull R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.79 | 19.0% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .296 | 4.83 | 18.7% | 8.3% | 87 | +0.04 | 3.93 | 268 | 83 |
| Dakota Hawkins R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.02 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 2.1% | .277 | 3.65 | 19.4% | 11.4% | 83 | -0.37 | 3.43 | 167 | 83 |
| Raymar Navarro R 2027 · 4.12 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.12 | 13.1% | 11.7% | 1.2% | .332 | 4.29 | 11.8% | 1.0% | 41 | +0.17 | 4.12 | 108 | 83 |
| Taylor Grover R 2026 · 5.40 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.40 | 15.1% | 12.9% | 3.5% | .229 | 4.26 | 18.7% | 9.1% | 150 | -1.14 | 3.63 | 239 | 82 |
| Dylan Spacke R 2026 · 5.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.23 | 16.1% | 13.9% | 3.2% | .297 | 4.74 | 13.6% | 0.2% | 52 | -0.49 | 2.08 | 205 | 82 |
| Emmanuel Chapman R 2027 · 4.19 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.19 | 19.7% | 10.6% | 2.6% | .256 | 4.43 | 18.4% | 2.3% | 111 | +0.24 | 3.87 | 192 | 82 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 68 | 16.6% | 10.4% | 1.14 | 5.03 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |