Luis Cohen
P
Greenville Drive
+0.0
WAR
Age 23
RHP
6'0" / 172 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 1.3 · 2029
ERA4.74
FIP4.74
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%18.8%
BB%9.5%
K-BB%9.3%
IP91
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.3peak
2029
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | DSL BOS Blue | 13 | 12 | 47 | 191 | 42 | 14 | 0 | 15.0% | 9.2% | 0.0% | 2.89 | 3.00 | +1.0 |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | FCL Red Sox | 10 | 7 | 39 | 154 | 39 | 14 | 2 | 17.2% | 11.4% | 1.9% | 3.46 | 4.12 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Salem Red Sox | 23 | 22 | 98 | 399 | 77 | 34 | 7 | 14.3% | 10.1% | 2.4% | 3.40 | 4.48 | +0.9 |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 23 | 14 | 91 | 390 | 68 | 33 | 9 | 13.0% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 4.25 | 4.90 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 2 | 2 | 8 | 34 | 6 | 1 | 3 | — | — | — | 9.39 | — | — |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | BOS | 17 | 17 | 91 | 384 | 72 | 37 | 12 | 18.8% | 9.5% | 3.0% | 4.74 | 4.74 | +0.5 |
| 2026 Total | 23 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 99 | 418 | 78 | 38 | 15 | 18.7% | 9.0% | 3.5% | 5.10 | 4.37 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | BOS | 20 | 20 | 109 | 461 | 92 | 41 | 14 | 20.0% | 9.0% | 3.0% | 4.61 | 4.55 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | BOS | 22 | 22 | 123 | 518 | 107 | 45 | 15 | 20.7% | 8.7% | 3.0% | 4.51 | 4.45 | +1.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | BOS | 24 | 24 | 130 | 548 | 115 | 47 | 16 | 21.0% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 4.45 | 4.42 | +1.3 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | BOS | 24 | 24 | 133 | 560 | 118 | 48 | 17 | 21.1% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.42 | +1.3 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 24 | 24 | 133 | 560 | 118 | 48 | 17 | 21.0% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 4.44 | 4.45 | +1.3 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 24 | 24 | 130 | 548 | 114 | 48 | 17 | 20.9% | 8.7% | 3.0% | 4.47 | 4.49 | +1.2 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 23 | 23 | 126 | 531 | 110 | 47 | 17 | 20.7% | 8.8% | 3.1% | 4.52 | 4.56 | +1.1 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 22 | 22 | 121 | 513 | 105 | 46 | 16 | 20.4% | 8.9% | 3.2% | 4.59 | 4.63 | +0.9 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 21 | 21 | 116 | 492 | 99 | 45 | 16 | 20.2% | 9.1% | 3.3% | 4.67 | 4.72 | +0.8 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | BOS | 20 | 20 | 111 | 470 | 93 | 44 | 16 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.3% | 4.76 | 4.81 | +0.6 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | BOS | 19 | 19 | 106 | 446 | 87 | 42 | 15 | 19.5% | 9.5% | 3.4% | 4.86 | 4.92 | +0.5 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | BOS | 18 | 18 | 100 | 421 | 80 | 41 | 15 | 19.1% | 9.7% | 3.6% | 4.97 | 5.05 | +0.3 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | BOS | 17 | 17 | 93 | 393 | 73 | 39 | 14 | 18.7% | 9.9% | 3.7% | 5.10 | 5.18 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 71 | 57 | 282 | 1168 | 169 | 115 | 27 | 14.5% | 9.8% | 2.3% | 3.76 | 4.40 | +2.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 40 | 200 | 827 | 120 | 81 | 19 | 14.5% | 9.8% | 2.3% | 3.76 | 4.40 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luis Cohen (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.74 | 18.8% | 9.5% | 3.0% | — | 4.47 | 20.6% | 11.9% | 362 | -0.27 | — | — | — |
| Houston Roth R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.62 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .263 | 4.85 | 20.8% | 8.3% | 228 | +0.23 | 3.77 | 350 | 94 |
| Erich Uelmen R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.63 | 15.3% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .299 | 4.56 | 19.8% | 8.8% | 159 | -0.07 | 3.48 | 383 | 92 |
| Riley Thompson R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.66 | 16.5% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .288 | 5.32 | 21.7% | 7.0% | 57 | +0.66 | 4.63 | 340 | 92 |
| Wil Crowe R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.65 | 15.0% | 10.9% | 2.6% | .278 | 4.65 | 18.9% | 9.7% | 266 | +0.00 | 4.00 | 518 | 91 |
| Linder Castro R 2027 · 4.63 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.63 | 15.3% | 11.5% | 2.5% | .327 | 4.38 | 16.4% | 6.5% | 111 | -0.25 | 4.25 | 279 | 91 |
| Jason Savacool R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.29 | 16.6% | 11.6% | 2.1% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 199 | 91 |
| Daniel Blair R 2027 · 4.09 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.09 | 16.6% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .284 | 4.39 | 17.0% | 7.8% | 78 | +0.30 | 4.09 | 171 | 90 |
| Tyler Wehrle R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.08 | 15.8% | 10.5% | 1.8% | .300 | 5.43 | 15.1% | 3.4% | 60 | +1.35 | 4.08 | 141 | 90 |
| Nick Hull R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.27 | 17.2% | 12.1% | 2.0% | .251 | 4.78 | 18.8% | 6.8% | 146 | +0.51 | 4.27 | 238 | 90 |
| Baron Stuart R 2027 · 5.27 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.27 | 14.5% | 12.2% | 3.4% | .266 | 4.02 | 16.6% | 3.9% | 169 | -1.25 | 3.56 | 269 | 90 |
| Tommy Mace R 2026 · 5.53 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.53 | 16.0% | 12.1% | 4.1% | .261 | 5.07 | 14.7% | 2.7% | 376 | -0.46 | 4.89 | 461 | 90 |
| Jeff Thompson R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.51 | 15.2% | 10.9% | 2.4% | .306 | 4.40 | 15.8% | 1.0% | 202 | -0.11 | 3.67 | 321 | 90 |
| Carlos Sano R 2028 · 4.88 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.88 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 3.4% | .282 | 9.12 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 18 | +4.24 | 4.88 | 105 | 90 |
| Hunter Adkins R 2028 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.71 | 16.2% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .290 | 4.81 | 11.8% | 0.5% | 58 | +0.10 | 4.71 | 160 | 90 |
| Jake Christianson R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.99 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.72 | 16.4% | 6.1% | 105 | +0.73 | 3.99 | 188 | 90 |
| Dylan Cumming R 2027 · 4.08 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.08 | 16.0% | 10.7% | 1.8% | .311 | 3.86 | 20.2% | 11.2% | 203 | -0.22 | 3.77 | 295 | 90 |
| Shelby Lackey R 2025 · 4.45 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.45 | 18.2% | 10.0% | 2.9% | .323 | 3.96 | 20.6% | 5.7% | 65 | -0.49 | 2.91 | 175 | 89 |
| Levi Thomas R 2026 · 5.33 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.33 | 18.1% | 11.9% | 4.1% | .328 | 5.16 | 20.8% | 3.3% | 31 | -0.17 | 5.16 | 116 | 89 |
| Jarred Cosart R 2028 · 5.09 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.09 | 15.2% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .274 | 4.93 | 13.1% | -0.5% | 132 | -0.16 | 4.10 | 218 | 89 |
| Jacob Meador R 2026 · 5.35 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.35 | 15.6% | 14.0% | 3.3% | .301 | 6.74 | 14.7% | -6.6% | 50 | +1.39 | 5.35 | 139 | 89 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.3 | $12M | +$11M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.3 | $12M | +$11M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +1.2 | $11M | +$11M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +1.1 | $11M | +$10M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.9 | $5M | +$3M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.8 | $4M | +$3M |
| Totals | $7M | $55M | +$48M | ||