CJ Gray

P ACL Angels

Age 20 RHP ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.3 · 2028

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

Scout OFP40ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	19	MIX2 levels	11	8	34	5.24	3.07	28.1%	13.1%	—	K 21.9% · BB 13.8% · FIP 3.65
2027PROJ	20	MLBLAA	15	15	68	4.77	4.77	24.2%	13.6%	0.1
2028PROJ49% MLB	21	MLBLAA	11	11	52	4.77	4.78	23.1%	12.9%	0.1
2029PROJ73% MLB	22	MLBLAA	21	21	107	4.59	4.49	24.0%	11.5%	0.6

Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff55Control40Command45FB velo59

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 6, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 90%

CompsJake Lyons (age 22) · Michael Forret (age 20) · Brandon Young (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.77

FIP4.77

K%24.2%

BB%13.6%

K-BB%10.6%

Proj IP68

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 68 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5055

CTRL—40

CMD2045

K†6060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	8	34	160	45	21	2	73%	3.1	21.9%	13.8%	8.1%	1.2%	5.24	3.65	—
2026	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	8	34	160	45	21	2	73%	3.1	21.9%	13.8%	8.1%	1.2%	5.24	3.65	—
2026	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	8	34	160	45	21	2	73%	3.1	28.1%	13.1%	15.0%	1.2%	5.24	3.07	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	LAA	15	15	68	287	70	39	8	100%	4.5	24.2%	13.6%	10.6%	2.9%	4.77	4.77	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	LAA	22	22	106	446	103	57	13	100%	4.8	23.1%	12.9%	10.2%	2.9%	4.74	4.75	+0.2
2029	22	MLB MLE	LAA	29	29	147	620	149	71	18	100%	5.1	24.0%	11.5%	12.6%	2.8%	4.56	4.46	+0.8
2030	23	MLB MLE	LAA	33	33	175	739	182	78	21	100%	5.3	24.7%	10.6%	14.1%	2.8%	4.39	4.28	+1.3
2031	24	MLB MLE	LAA	32	32	179	757	191	76	21	100%	5.6	25.2%	10.1%	15.1%	2.8%	4.25	4.15	+1.6
2032	25	MLB MLE	LAA	31	31	180	760	194	75	21	100%	5.8	25.6%	9.8%	15.8%	2.8%	4.15	4.08	+1.7
2033	26	MLB MLE	LAA	30	30	180	760	196	74	21	100%	6.0	25.8%	9.8%	16.0%	2.8%	4.09	4.05	+1.8
2034	27	MLB MLE	LAA	30	30	177	749	193	74	21	100%	5.9	25.8%	9.8%	15.9%	2.8%	4.09	4.09	+1.7
2035	28	MLB MLE	LAA	29	29	172	726	186	73	21	100%	5.9	25.7%	10.0%	15.7%	2.9%	4.14	4.18	+1.5
2036	29	MLB MLE	LAA	27	27	164	694	176	71	21	100%	6.1	25.4%	10.2%	15.2%	3.1%	4.24	4.31	+1.1
2037	30	MLB MLE	LAA	26	26	154	652	163	69	21	100%	5.9	25.1%	10.5%	14.5%	3.3%	4.39	4.48	+0.8
2038	31	MLB MLE	LAA	24	24	144	608	150	66	21	100%	6.0	24.7%	10.9%	13.8%	3.5%	4.57	4.69	+0.4
2039	32	MLB MLE	LAA	22	22	133	562	136	63	21	100%	6.1	24.2%	11.3%	13.0%	3.7%	4.77	4.91	-0.0
2040	33	MLB MLE	LAA	20	20	122	516	122	60	21	100%	6.1	23.7%	11.7%	12.0%	4.0%	5.00	5.16	-0.4
2028	21	MLB CTX	LAA	11	11	52	220	51	28	6	100%	4.7	23.1%	12.9%	10.2%	2.9%	4.77	4.78	+0.1
2029	22	MLB CTX	LAA	21	21	107	452	109	52	13	100%	5.1	24.0%	11.5%	12.6%	2.9%	4.59	4.49	+0.6
2030	23	MLB CTX	LAA	28	28	148	625	154	66	18	100%	5.3	24.7%	10.6%	14.1%	2.9%	4.42	4.31	+1.1
2031	24	MLB CTX	LAA	29	29	160	676	170	68	19	100%	5.5	25.2%	10.1%	15.1%	2.8%	4.28	4.18	+1.4
2032	25	MLB CTX	LAA	28	28	165	697	178	68	20	100%	5.9	25.6%	9.8%	15.8%	2.8%	4.18	4.11	+1.6
2033	26	MLB CTX	LAA	28	28	168	709	183	69	20	100%	6.0	25.8%	9.8%	16.0%	2.8%	4.12	4.08	+1.7
2034	27	MLB CTX	LAA	28	28	168	709	183	70	20	100%	6.0	25.8%	9.8%	15.9%	2.9%	4.12	4.12	+1.6
2035	28	MLB CTX	LAA	27	27	163	688	177	69	20	100%	6.0	25.7%	10.0%	15.7%	3.0%	4.17	4.21	+1.4
2036	29	MLB CTX	LAA	26	26	156	659	167	67	21	100%	6.0	25.4%	10.2%	15.2%	3.1%	4.27	4.34	+1.1
2037	30	MLB CTX	LAA	24	24	147	621	156	65	21	100%	6.1	25.1%	10.5%	14.5%	3.3%	4.43	4.52	+0.7
2038	31	MLB CTX	LAA	23	23	137	578	143	63	21	100%	6.0	24.7%	10.9%	13.8%	3.6%	4.61	4.73	+0.3
2039	32	MLB CTX	LAA	21	21	127	536	130	60	20	100%	6.0	24.2%	11.3%	13.0%	3.8%	4.81	4.95	-0.0
2040	33	MLB CTX	LAA	19	19	116	490	116	57	20	100%	6.1	23.7%	11.7%	12.0%	4.1%	5.04	5.20	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		313	313	1813	7657	1916	804	239	100%	5.8	25.0%	10.5%	14.5%	3.1%	4.40	4.03	+18.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	211	89	26	100%	5.8	25.0%	10.5%	14.5%	3.1%	4.40	4.03	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		11	8	34	160	35	22	2	73%	3.1	21.9%	13.8%	8.1%	1.2%	5.24	3.65	+12.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		64	47	200	932	204	128	11	73%	3.1	21.9%	13.8%	8.1%	1.2%	5.24	3.65	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
CJ Gray (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.77	24.2%	13.6%	2.9%	—	4.46	24.1%	12.6%	428	-0.31	—	—	—
Jake Lyons R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.64	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.18	4.13	174	83
Michael Forret R 2024 · 4.00 FIP	20	SP-	4.00	21.8%	11.8%	2.3%	.302	3.45	22.8%	12.9%	190	-0.55	2.65	289	83
Brandon Young R 2021 · 4.13 FIP	22	SP	4.13	24.5%	12.3%	2.8%	.297	3.48	22.2%	14.6%	150	-0.65	3.03	492	83
Trace Bright R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	22	SP-	4.26	26.3%	14.7%	2.8%	.297	4.85	19.4%	6.3%	322	+0.59	4.26	422	82
Logan Hofmann R 2021 · 4.57 FIP	21	SP-	4.57	22.1%	11.3%	3.5%	.239	6.80	9.7%	-12.0%	47	+2.23	4.57	129	82
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.10	25.7%	15.7%	121	-0.41	3.26	181	81
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	81
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.15	22.0%	9.5%	123	+0.85	4.30	181	80
Rayner Urbaez R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	20	SP	3.88	23.6%	11.4%	2.4%	.337	3.35	15.0%	3.0%	27	-0.53	2.55	103	80
Chris Campos R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP-	4.91	21.0%	11.8%	3.8%	.364	4.57	18.6%	11.6%	249	-0.34	4.54	318	80
Royber Salinas R 2021 · 4.69 FIP	20	SP-	4.69	27.4%	17.3%	3.1%	.280	4.36	26.1%	11.3%	213	-0.33	3.75	285	80
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	79
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	79
Carlos Lagrange R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	20	SP	4.34	22.1%	15.5%	2.1%	.291	3.93	25.8%	12.5%	199	-0.41	3.66	273	78
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.2%	265	+0.44	3.20	411	78
Nolan DeVos R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP-	4.21	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.66	19.0%	8.3%	111	+1.45	4.21	210	78
Zach Messinger R 2022 · 3.99 FIP	22	SP-	3.99	23.0%	14.7%	1.8%	.317	4.28	18.7%	7.6%	314	+0.29	3.70	470	78
Moises Castillo R 2024 · 4.58 FIP	19	SP-	4.58	18.1%	11.7%	2.8%	.269	4.06	19.4%	4.9%	67	-0.52	3.76	104	78
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.56	18.8%	9.0%	178	+1.83	3.73	274	77
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.4%	8.5%	211	-0.23	3.28	265	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	10.5	150	24.9%	10.7%	1.18	4.39
Jose DeLeon ('83-'95, 22 WAR*)	9.5	146	25.8%*	10.4%*	1.01*	4.17*
Bob Weiland ('28-'40, 10 WAR*)	6.9	139	22.6%*	9.9%*	1.15*	4.26*
Fred Norman ('62-'80, 16 WAR*)	9.7	162	22.3%*	9.7%*	1.34*	4.33*
Francisco Liriano ('19)	9.1	130	23.3%	10.5%	0.91	4.15
Scott Kazmir ('21)	8.5	155	22.1%	9.4%	1.02	4.02
Chan Ho Park ('10)	10.0	142	19.7%	10.4%	1.04	4.36