Luis Cepeda
P
DSL Arizona Red
+0.2
WAR
Age 18
LHP
6'1" / 170 lbs
ROK
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
peak 0.7 · 2034
ERA4.44
FIP4.44
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.6%
BB%10.2%
K-BB%12.4%
IP33
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2034
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 17 | ROK | DSL Arizona Red | 12 | 7 | 39 | 175 | 41 | 26 | 0 | 15.9% | 18.6% | 0.0% | 3.43 | 4.11 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 18 | MLB | — | 33 | — | 33 | 141 | 32 | 14 | 4 | 22.6% | 10.2% | 2.9% | 4.44 | 4.44 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 19 | MLB | — | 35 | — | 35 | 148 | 34 | 14 | 4 | 23.1% | 9.6% | 2.8% | 4.35 | 4.29 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 20 | MLB | — | 37 | — | 37 | 156 | 37 | 14 | 4 | 23.5% | 9.2% | 2.8% | 4.25 | 4.18 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 21 | MLB | — | 39 | — | 39 | 163 | 39 | 15 | 4 | 23.9% | 8.9% | 2.7% | 4.15 | 4.08 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 22 | MLB | — | 41 | — | 41 | 171 | 43 | 14 | 5 | 24.8% | 8.4% | 2.7% | 4.01 | 3.91 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 23 | MLB | — | 42 | — | 42 | 178 | 45 | 14 | 5 | 25.5% | 8.1% | 2.6% | 3.88 | 3.79 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 24 | MLB | — | 43 | — | 43 | 182 | 48 | 14 | 5 | 26.1% | 7.9% | 2.6% | 3.77 | 3.70 | +0.6 |
| 2033 | 25 | MLB | — | 44 | — | 44 | 185 | 49 | 14 | 5 | 26.4% | 7.8% | 2.6% | 3.69 | 3.64 | +0.6 |
| 2034 | 26 | MLB | — | 44 | — | 44 | 185 | 49 | 14 | 5 | 26.6% | 7.7% | 2.6% | 3.65 | 3.62 | +0.7 |
| 2035 | 27 | MLB | — | 43 | — | 43 | 183 | 49 | 14 | 5 | 26.7% | 7.8% | 2.6% | 3.64 | 3.63 | +0.6 |
| 2036 | 28 | MLB | — | 43 | — | 43 | 180 | 48 | 14 | 5 | 26.6% | 7.8% | 2.6% | 3.65 | 3.66 | +0.6 |
| 2037 | 29 | MLB | — | 42 | — | 42 | 176 | 47 | 14 | 5 | 26.5% | 7.9% | 2.7% | 3.68 | 3.70 | +0.6 |
| 2038 | 30 | MLB | — | 40 | — | 40 | 171 | 45 | 14 | 5 | 26.3% | 8.0% | 2.7% | 3.73 | 3.77 | +0.5 |
| 2039 | 31 | MLB | — | 39 | — | 39 | 165 | 43 | 13 | 5 | 26.1% | 8.1% | 2.8% | 3.80 | 3.84 | +0.5 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 12 | 7 | 39 | 175 | 28 | 32 | 0 | 15.9% | 18.6% | 0.0% | 3.43 | 4.11 | +0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 61 | 36 | 200 | 890 | 142 | 163 | 0 | 15.9% | 18.6% | 0.0% | 3.43 | 4.11 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luis Cepeda (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.44 | 22.6% | 10.2% | 2.9% | — | 4.18 | 23.5% | 14.3% | 111 | -0.26 | — | — | — |
| Juan Amarante L 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 18 | SU | 3.40 | 23.1% | 10.6% | 1.7% | .299 | 4.46 | 18.0% | 4.3% | 178 | +1.06 | 3.40 | 207 | 91 |
| Robinson Ortiz L 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 18 | SU | 3.85 | 21.0% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .312 | 5.37 | 15.2% | 0.6% | 98 | +1.52 | 2.29 | 227 | 91 |
| Juan Rojas L 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 18 | SU | 3.66 | 23.0% | 7.6% | 2.8% | .279 | 4.32 | 15.9% | 2.4% | 164 | +0.66 | 2.74 | 243 | 88 |
| Jeremy Gonzalez L 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 18 | SU | 3.85 | 19.6% | 10.6% | 1.9% | .290 | 4.55 | 14.6% | -0.7% | 53 | +0.70 | 3.39 | 118 | 87 |
| Osvaldo Hernandez L 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 19 | SU | 3.57 | 20.4% | 8.1% | 2.1% | .324 | 3.35 | 15.0% | 7.7% | 142 | -0.22 | 3.11 | 312 | 87 |
| Pablo Aldonis L 2028 · 4.29 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.29 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 3.5% | .324 | 2.64 | 21.9% | 13.1% | 68 | -1.65 | 1.89 | 108 | 86 |
| Denny Bentley L 2028 · 4.85 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.85 | 19.6% | 10.3% | 3.8% | .318 | 2.88 | 25.4% | 10.3% | 58 | -1.97 | 2.88 | 175 | 84 |
| Javier Chacon L 2027 · 5.18 FIP | 19 | SU | 5.18 | 22.5% | 13.1% | 4.2% | .295 | 4.62 | 20.3% | 3.5% | 94 | -0.56 | 4.55 | 135 | 84 |
| Blake Townsend L 2028 · 3.97 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.97 | 26.7% | 11.2% | 3.1% | .286 | 3.98 | 18.5% | 4.8% | 96 | +0.01 | 3.33 | 200 | 84 |
| Ethan Lindow L 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 18 | SU | 4.33 | 19.1% | 12.4% | 2.3% | .329 | 2.97 | 19.8% | 14.0% | 111 | -1.36 | 2.97 | 435 | 84 |
| James Gonzalez L 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 18 | SU | 3.47 | 18.7% | 7.8% | 1.8% | .327 | 4.87 | 17.1% | 7.0% | 91 | +1.40 | 2.31 | 414 | 84 |
| Lachlan Wells L 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 18 | SU | 4.18 | 18.0% | 7.4% | 3.0% | .256 | 4.21 | 15.9% | 9.4% | 153 | +0.03 | 3.26 | 335 | 83 |
| Brock Selvidge L 2027 · 3.66 FIP | 19 | SU | 3.66 | 19.9% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .321 | 3.80 | 17.8% | 7.6% | 287 | +0.14 | 3.08 | 330 | 83 |
| Johan Simon L 2028 · 3.44 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.44 | 19.8% | 10.2% | 1.3% | .302 | 4.50 | 17.6% | 1.1% | 41 | +1.06 | 3.44 | 123 | 83 |
| Sam Hentges L 2027 · 4.34 FIP | 19 | SU | 4.34 | 18.5% | 10.9% | 2.6% | .333 | 3.97 | 18.9% | 7.4% | 192 | -0.37 | 2.31 | 576 | 83 |
| Angel Roman L 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 18 | SU | 3.78 | 21.4% | 13.5% | 1.4% | .286 | 3.83 | 13.2% | 4.3% | 169 | +0.05 | 2.74 | 196 | 82 |
| Francis Texido L 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 18 | SW | 3.78 | 20.4% | 7.4% | 2.7% | .260 | 5.53 | 15.1% | -5.8% | 202 | +1.75 | 3.78 | 252 | 82 |
| Jagger Haynes L 2028 · 4.27 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.27 | 19.7% | 13.0% | 2.2% | .303 | 5.33 | 18.5% | 2.8% | 214 | +1.06 | 4.27 | 239 | 82 |
| Alberto Pacheco L 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 18 | SU | 3.30 | 19.1% | 6.2% | 1.9% | .286 | 4.08 | 16.9% | 6.3% | 239 | +0.78 | 3.10 | 398 | 81 |
| Eudis Idrogo L 2028 · 3.37 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.37 | 19.4% | 8.0% | 1.6% | .236 | 3.85 | 13.5% | 7.7% | 319 | +0.48 | 3.37 | 364 | 81 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2032
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2037
First FA Year 2038
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2031 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.7 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| 2037 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $4M | $12M | +$8M | ||