Luis Cepeda
P
DSL Arizona Black
Age 18
LHP
6'1" / 170 lbs
ROK
peak 0.3 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION20 act + 23 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 101111vR 120
ERA4.44
FIP4.44
K%22.6%
BB%10.2%
K-BB%12.4%
ROS IP23
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 43 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 17 | ROK | DSL Arizona Red | 12 | 7 | 39 | 175 | 41 | 26 | 0 | 58% | 3.3 | 15.9% | 18.6% | -2.6% | 0.0% | 3.43 | 4.11 | — |
| 2025 | 17 | ROK | DSL Arizona Red | 12 | 7 | 39 | 175 | 41 | 26 | 0 | 58% | 3.3 | 23.4% | 14.9% | 8.6% | 0.0% | 3.43 | 3.00 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 18 | ROK | DSL Arizona Black | 7 | 6 | 20 | 99 | 18 | 20 | 2 | 86% | 2.9 | 12.4% | 25.3% | -12.9% | 2.8% | 6.30 | 6.81 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 18 | MLB | ARI | 4 | 4 | 23 | 99 | 22 | 10 | 3 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.6% | 10.2% | 12.4% | 2.9% | 4.44 | 4.44 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 18 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.6% | 10.2% | 12.4% | 2.9% | 4.44 | 4.44 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 18 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 43 | 198 | 40 | 30 | 5 | — | — | 20.4% | 15.2% | 5.2% | 2.4% | 5.30 | 5.53 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 19 | MLB | ARI | 6 | 6 | 25 | 104 | 24 | 10 | 3 | 100% | 4.1 | 23.1% | 9.6% | 13.5% | 2.8% | 4.35 | 4.29 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 19 | MLB | ARI | 3 | 3 | 12 | 51 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 100% | 4.0 | 23.1% | 9.6% | 13.5% | 2.8% | 4.35 | 4.29 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 3 | 3 | 12 | 51 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 100% | 4.0 | 23.1% | 9.6% | 13.5% | 2.8% | 4.35 | 3.91 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 46 | 200 | 844 | 198 | 83 | 17 | 100% | 4.4 | 23.1% | 9.6% | 13.5% | 2.8% | 4.35 | 3.91 | +3.5 | ||
| Career | — | 19 | 13 | 59 | 274 | 40 | 58 | 3 | 68% | 3.1 | 14.6% | 21.0% | -6.3% | 1.0% | 4.40 | 5.08 | -0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 64 | 44 | 200 | 924 | 135 | 194 | 9 | 68% | 3.1 | 14.6% | 21.0% | -6.3% | 1.0% | 4.40 | 5.08 | +0.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luis Cepeda (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.44 | 22.6% | 10.2% | 2.9% | — | 4.29 | 23.1% | 13.5% | 25 | -0.15 | — | — | — |
| Robinson Ortiz L 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 18 | SP- | 3.85 | 21.0% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .312 | 5.34 | 15.2% | 0.6% | 98 | +1.49 | 2.29 | 261 | 87 |
| Juan Rojas L 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 18 | SP- | 3.65 | 23.0% | 7.6% | 2.8% | .279 | 4.23 | 15.9% | 2.4% | 164 | +0.58 | 2.74 | 279 | 86 |
| Blake Townsend L 2028 · 3.96 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.96 | 26.7% | 11.2% | 3.1% | .286 | 4.11 | 18.5% | 4.8% | 96 | +0.15 | 3.40 | 263 | 84 |
| Johan Simon L 2028 · 3.42 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.42 | 19.8% | 10.2% | 1.3% | .302 | 4.50 | 17.6% | 1.1% | 41 | +1.08 | 3.42 | 158 | 82 |
| Jordan Woods L 2028 · 4.61 FIP | 20 | SP | 4.61 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 3.5% | .329 | 4.13 | 20.3% | 7.4% | 112 | -0.48 | 3.74 | 143 | 81 |
| James Gonzalez L 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 18 | SP- | 3.47 | 18.7% | 7.8% | 1.8% | .327 | 4.87 | 17.1% | 7.0% | 91 | +1.40 | 2.31 | 455 | 80 |
| Brock Selvidge L 2027 · 3.66 FIP | 19 | SP- | 3.66 | 19.9% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .321 | 3.75 | 17.8% | 7.6% | 287 | +0.09 | 3.04 | 330 | 79 |
| Aidan Deakins L 2029 · 3.83 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.83 | 18.9% | 8.5% | 2.3% | .323 | 5.29 | 17.1% | 6.0% | 62 | +1.46 | 3.83 | 119 | 78 |
| Pablo Aldonis L 2028 · 4.25 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.25 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 3.4% | .324 | 2.67 | 21.9% | 13.1% | 68 | -1.58 | 1.89 | 135 | 77 |
| Javier Chacon L 2027 · 5.42 FIP | 19 | SP- | 5.42 | 22.5% | 13.1% | 4.7% | .295 | 4.69 | 20.3% | 3.5% | 94 | -0.73 | 4.63 | 181 | 77 |
| Yereny Teus L 2027 · 3.49 FIP | 19 | SP | 3.49 | 19.2% | 12.0% | 0.9% | .284 | 3.71 | 23.1% | 9.9% | 122 | +0.22 | 2.98 | 166 | 76 |
| Osvaldo Hernandez L 2027 · 3.53 FIP | 19 | SP- | 3.53 | 20.4% | 8.1% | 2.0% | .324 | 3.32 | 15.0% | 7.7% | 142 | -0.21 | 3.04 | 312 | 76 |
| Michael Kennedy L 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 18 | SP- | 3.54 | 21.9% | 13.9% | 1.0% | .250 | 4.43 | 18.2% | 9.1% | 195 | +0.89 | 3.54 | 237 | 76 |
| Jeremy Gonzalez L 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 18 | SP | 3.82 | 19.6% | 10.6% | 1.9% | .290 | 4.26 | 14.3% | -0.5% | 78 | +0.44 | 3.39 | 143 | 75 |
| Thomas Ireland L 2029 · 4.50 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.50 | 16.7% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .286 | 3.55 | 17.3% | 8.3% | 177 | -0.95 | 2.94 | 221 | 74 |
| Wilkin Paredes L 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 19 | SP | 4.23 | 16.2% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .353 | 4.88 | 11.8% | 3.1% | 248 | +0.65 | 4.23 | 294 | 74 |
| Deyer Zapata L 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 18 | SP | 4.37 | 18.8% | 14.3% | 1.9% | .309 | 5.40 | 17.5% | 4.0% | 50 | +1.03 | 3.61 | 130 | 74 |
| Bodi Rascon L 2028 · 4.55 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.55 | 15.4% | 8.8% | 3.0% | .271 | 5.56 | 15.7% | 3.9% | 143 | +1.01 | 4.55 | 218 | 74 |
| Ryan Wilson L 2028 · 3.43 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.43 | 18.5% | 8.8% | 1.4% | .395 | 4.27 | 18.8% | 7.9% | 155 | +0.84 | 3.43 | 222 | 74 |
| Ethan Lindow L 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 18 | SP | 4.33 | 19.1% | 12.4% | 2.3% | .329 | 3.19 | 19.8% | 14.0% | 111 | -1.14 | 3.19 | 435 | 74 |