Javier Chacon
P
Lake Elsinore Storm
+0.3
WAR
Age 23
LHP
5'11" / 190 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.6 · 2029
ERA4.49
FIP4.49
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.9%
BB%10.5%
K-BB%12.4%
IP62
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2029
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | ACL Padres | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | ACL Padres | 11 | 6 | 41 | 181 | 60 | 19 | 7 | 22.5% | 13.1% | 4.2% | 3.07 | 5.18 | -0.1 |
| 2023 | 20 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | 15 | 0 | 27 | 127 | 29 | 27 | 3 | 17.4% | 26.2% | 0.0% | 4.05 | 4.96 | -0.0 |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | 33 | 5 | 77 | 329 | 93 | 41 | 6 | 20.9% | 14.7% | 2.5% | 3.61 | 4.55 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | 3 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 4 | 6 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.70 | — | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | 3 | 0 | 6 | 26 | 9 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 3.18 | — | — |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | SD | 11 | 11 | 62 | 263 | 60 | 28 | 8 | 22.9% | 10.5% | 2.9% | 4.49 | 4.49 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 23 | MLB | SD | — | — | 68 | 289 | 69 | 29 | 8 | 23.9% | 9.9% | 2.7% | 4.38 | 4.12 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | SD | 12 | 12 | 64 | 269 | 63 | 26 | 8 | 23.5% | 9.8% | 2.9% | 4.39 | 4.34 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | SD | 12 | 12 | 65 | 273 | 65 | 26 | 8 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 2.9% | 4.31 | 4.25 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | SD | 12 | 12 | 65 | 273 | 66 | 26 | 8 | 24.0% | 9.4% | 2.9% | 4.27 | 4.23 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | SD | 12 | 12 | 64 | 271 | 65 | 25 | 8 | 24.0% | 9.4% | 2.9% | 4.26 | 4.24 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | SD | 11 | 11 | 63 | 266 | 64 | 25 | 8 | 24.0% | 9.4% | 3.0% | 4.27 | 4.27 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | SD | 11 | 11 | 62 | 261 | 62 | 25 | 8 | 23.9% | 9.5% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 4.32 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | SD | 60 | — | 60 | 252 | 60 | 24 | 8 | 23.7% | 9.6% | 3.1% | 4.35 | 4.38 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | SD | 58 | — | 58 | 244 | 57 | 24 | 8 | 23.4% | 9.7% | 3.1% | 4.41 | 4.45 | +0.3 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | SD | 55 | — | 55 | 234 | 54 | 23 | 8 | 23.1% | 9.9% | 3.2% | 4.49 | 4.54 | +0.3 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | SD | 53 | — | 53 | 223 | 51 | 22 | 7 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 3.3% | 4.58 | 4.64 | +0.2 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | SD | 50 | — | 50 | 212 | 48 | 22 | 7 | 22.5% | 10.3% | 3.4% | 4.68 | 4.75 | +0.1 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | SD | 47 | — | 47 | 200 | 44 | 21 | 7 | 22.1% | 10.5% | 3.5% | 4.79 | 4.87 | +0.0 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | SD | 44 | — | 44 | 187 | 41 | 20 | 7 | 21.7% | 10.7% | 3.6% | 4.92 | 5.00 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 65 | 11 | 157 | 693 | 145 | 112 | 16 | 20.9% | 16.2% | 2.3% | 3.49 | 4.64 | +1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 83 | 14 | 200 | 881 | 184 | 142 | 20 | 20.9% | 16.2% | 2.3% | 3.49 | 4.64 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Javier Chacon (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.49 | 22.9% | 10.5% | 2.9% | — | 4.27 | 23.8% | 14.3% | 193 | -0.22 | — | — | — |
| Garrett Irvin L 2027 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.43 | 23.2% | 11.6% | 3.3% | .283 | 4.34 | 17.7% | 2.9% | 39 | -0.09 | 4.34 | 110 | 93 |
| Jimmy Robbins L 2027 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.86 | 23.3% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .286 | 4.86 | 18.1% | 2.5% | 99 | +1.00 | 3.86 | 176 | 92 |
| Shane McCain L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.31 | 19.8% | 9.7% | 3.0% | .324 | 4.65 | 16.6% | 10.0% | 125 | +0.34 | 4.31 | 201 | 90 |
| Michael Johnson L 2027 · 3.88 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.88 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.4% | .260 | 4.75 | 17.6% | 7.7% | 185 | +0.87 | 3.88 | 256 | 90 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2027 · 4.55 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.55 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 3.9% | .298 | 4.50 | 16.9% | 7.4% | 231 | -0.05 | 3.50 | 300 | 90 |
| R.C. Orlan L 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.91 | 21.0% | 10.9% | 2.2% | .326 | 4.61 | 17.2% | 5.0% | 119 | +0.70 | 1.71 | 206 | 90 |
| Sam Weatherly L 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.04 | 24.0% | 12.8% | 2.5% | .323 | 4.14 | 21.9% | 8.9% | 41 | +0.10 | 4.04 | 158 | 89 |
| Daniel Stumpf L 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.26 | 20.8% | 11.5% | 2.6% | .268 | 3.50 | 22.5% | 15.3% | 123 | -0.76 | 1.84 | 238 | 89 |
| Wyatt Short L 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.83 | 20.4% | 8.4% | 2.5% | .262 | 3.96 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 91 | +0.13 | 2.73 | 288 | 89 |
| Ryne Slack L 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.08 | 18.8% | 9.0% | 2.6% | .293 | 4.99 | 15.4% | 2.5% | 142 | +0.91 | 4.08 | 212 | 88 |
| Dante Biasi L 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.91 | 21.5% | 12.6% | 3.7% | .251 | 5.64 | 19.3% | 2.3% | 153 | +0.73 | 4.91 | 224 | 87 |
| Keylan Killgore L 2025 · 4.24 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.24 | 20.7% | 12.7% | 2.3% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.76 | 161 | 86 |
| Josh Trentadue L 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.67 | 23.1% | 12.0% | 1.8% | .249 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 148 | 86 |
| Chris Cotton L 2027 · 3.68 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.68 | 20.7% | 7.0% | 2.6% | .288 | 4.17 | 9.7% | 3.3% | 61 | +0.49 | 3.68 | 128 | 85 |
| Wesley Moore L 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.66 | 25.9% | 13.2% | 2.0% | .254 | 4.19 | 18.3% | 5.6% | 58 | +0.53 | 3.66 | 111 | 85 |
| Mac Lardner L 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.76 | 18.9% | 8.5% | 4.0% | .332 | 4.36 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 119 | -0.40 | 3.70 | 186 | 85 |
| Nate Peterson L 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.45 | 18.4% | 11.4% | 2.7% | .284 | 4.96 | 17.1% | 5.7% | 161 | +0.51 | 4.32 | 236 | 85 |
| Jakob Hernandez L 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.46 | 21.7% | 10.9% | 1.5% | .232 | 3.97 | 27.9% | 18.6% | 102 | +0.51 | 2.99 | 266 | 85 |
| Hunter Barco L 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.59 | 23.4% | 10.0% | 2.2% | .275 | 3.43 | 23.9% | 11.5% | 99 | -0.16 | 3.43 | 161 | 84 |
| Chazz Martinez L 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.77 | 22.2% | 12.7% | 1.7% | .361 | 3.47 | 20.6% | 7.7% | 125 | -0.30 | 3.15 | 189 | 84 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.3 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.3 | $2M | +$0.6M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $4M | $10M | +$5M | ||