Javier Chacon
P
Fort Wayne TinCaps
Age 23
LHP
5'11" / 190 lbs
A+
peak 0.1 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION46 act + 44 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 103112vR 121
ERA4.49
FIP4.49
K%22.9%
BB%10.5%
K-BB%12.4%
ROS IP44
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | ACL Padres | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 100% | — | 0.0% | 50.0% | -50.0% | 16.7% | — | 18.58 | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | ACL Padres | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 100% | — | 0.0% | 50.0% | -50.0% | 16.7% | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | ACL Padres | 11 | 6 | 41 | 181 | 60 | 19 | 7 | 55% | 3.7 | 22.5% | 13.1% | 9.4% | 4.7% | 3.07 | 5.42 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | ACL Padres | 11 | 6 | 41 | 181 | 60 | 19 | 7 | 55% | 3.7 | 33.1% | 10.5% | 22.7% | 3.9% | 3.07 | 3.78 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 0 | 27 | 127 | 29 | 27 | 3 | 0% | 1.8 | 17.4% | 26.2% | -8.9% | 0.0% | 4.05 | 4.96 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 0 | 27 | 127 | 29 | 27 | 3 | 0% | 1.8 | 22.8% | 21.3% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 4.05 | 5.43 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | 33 | 5 | 77 | 329 | 93 | 41 | 6 | 15% | 2.3 | 20.9% | 14.7% | 6.2% | 2.6% | 3.61 | 4.63 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | 33 | 5 | 77 | 329 | 93 | 41 | 6 | 15% | 2.3 | 28.3% | 12.5% | 15.8% | 1.8% | 3.61 | 3.29 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | 3 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0% | 2.2 | 13.3% | 20.0% | -6.7% | 0.0% | 2.70 | 4.51 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | 3 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0% | 2.2 | 13.3% | 20.0% | -6.7% | 0.0% | 2.70 | 4.60 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 26 | 0 | 46 | 202 | 58 | 30 | 8 | 0% | 1.8 | 21.8% | 17.2% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.30 | 6.18 | -0.9 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | SD | 42 | 0 | 44 | 184 | 42 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 10.5% | 12.4% | 2.9% | 4.49 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | SD | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.9% | 10.5% | 12.4% | 2.9% | 4.49 | 4.49 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | SD | — | — | 90 | 386 | 100 | 49 | 13 | — | — | 25.9% | 12.8% | 13.2% | 3.5% | 4.39 | 5.36 | -0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | SD | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 22.9% | 10.5% | 12.4% | 2.9% | 4.49 | 4.11 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | SD | 43 | 0 | 45 | 189 | 44 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.5% | 9.8% | 13.7% | 2.9% | 4.40 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | SD | 18 | 0 | 19 | 80 | 19 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 9.8% | 13.7% | 2.9% | 4.40 | 4.34 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 19 | 0 | 19 | 82 | 19 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.5% | 9.8% | 13.6% | 2.9% | 4.40 | 3.97 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 195 | 82 | 21 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 9.8% | 13.6% | 2.9% | 4.40 | 3.97 | +3.4 | ||
| Career | — | 88 | 11 | 198 | 869 | 180 | 146 | 27 | 12% | 2.2 | 20.7% | 16.8% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 3.69 | 5.20 | +0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 89 | 11 | 200 | 879 | 182 | 148 | 27 | 12% | 2.2 | 20.7% | 16.8% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 3.69 | 5.20 | +0.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Javier Chacon (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.49 | 22.9% | 10.5% | 2.9% | — | 4.34 | 23.5% | 13.7% | 45 | -0.15 | — | — | — |
| Harry Gustin L 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.77 | 23.0% | 11.4% | 2.1% | .271 | 5.25 | 21.7% | 11.5% | 39 | +1.48 | 3.77 | 132 | 89 |
| Garrett Irvin L 2027 · 4.53 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.53 | 23.2% | 11.6% | 3.5% | .283 | 4.48 | 17.7% | 2.9% | 39 | -0.05 | 4.48 | 110 | 87 |
| Sean Mellen L 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.62 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.3% | .364 | 3.97 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 55 | -0.65 | 3.97 | 101 | 87 |
| R.C. Orlan L 2027 · 4.01 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.01 | 21.0% | 10.9% | 2.4% | .326 | 4.55 | 17.2% | 5.0% | 119 | +0.54 | 1.71 | 206 | 86 |
| Shane McCain L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.19 | 19.8% | 9.7% | 2.8% | .324 | 4.51 | 16.6% | 10.0% | 125 | +0.32 | 4.19 | 201 | 86 |
| Daniel Stumpf L 2027 · 4.54 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.54 | 20.8% | 11.5% | 3.2% | .268 | 3.58 | 22.5% | 15.3% | 123 | -0.96 | 1.84 | 238 | 84 |
| Michael Johnson L 2027 · 4.09 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.09 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .260 | 4.51 | 17.6% | 7.7% | 185 | +0.42 | 3.88 | 256 | 84 |
| Ryne Slack L 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.08 | 18.8% | 9.0% | 2.6% | .293 | 4.89 | 15.4% | 2.5% | 142 | +0.81 | 4.08 | 212 | 83 |
| Daniel Zamora L 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.52 | 20.3% | 10.8% | 1.4% | .294 | 2.76 | 24.7% | 16.8% | 135 | -0.76 | 2.17 | 310 | 83 |
| Kade Bragg L 2027 · 4.40 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.40 | 23.3% | 13.0% | 3.0% | .255 | 4.15 | 23.7% | 2.3% | 45 | -0.25 | 4.15 | 112 | 83 |
| Fred Schlichtholz L 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.41 | 22.5% | 12.8% | 2.9% | .368 | 4.36 | 18.5% | 8.4% | 80 | -0.05 | 3.76 | 175 | 83 |
| Jared Tobey L 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.11 | 21.0% | 12.1% | 2.3% | .320 | 5.97 | 22.4% | 8.2% | 73 | +1.86 | 4.11 | 158 | 83 |
| Keylan Killgore L 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.30 | 20.7% | 12.7% | 2.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 161 | 83 |
| Wyatt Short L 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.92 | 20.4% | 8.4% | 2.7% | .262 | 3.93 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 91 | +0.01 | 2.70 | 288 | 82 |
| Robert Garcia L 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.63 | 24.0% | 11.4% | 3.8% | .342 | 4.41 | 22.0% | 10.4% | 106 | -0.22 | 2.21 | 452 | 82 |
| Brian Marconi L 2027 · 3.61 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.61 | 25.3% | 12.3% | 2.0% | .265 | 4.96 | 20.3% | 2.1% | 57 | +1.35 | 3.61 | 101 | 81 |
| Josh Simpson L 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.43 | 23.5% | 11.5% | 3.4% | .290 | 3.28 | 33.4% | 19.3% | 102 | -1.15 | 3.07 | 247 | 81 |
| Trey Cumbie L 2026 · 3.33 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.33 | 22.5% | 12.6% | 1.0% | .318 | 4.80 | 24.4% | 8.7% | 91 | +1.47 | 3.33 | 152 | 81 |
| Wesley Moore L 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.83 | 25.9% | 13.2% | 2.3% | .254 | 4.14 | 18.3% | 5.6% | 58 | +0.31 | 3.83 | 111 | 80 |
| Chazz Martinez L 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.69 | 22.2% | 12.7% | 1.5% | .361 | 3.48 | 20.9% | 7.4% | 135 | -0.21 | 3.13 | 199 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 44 | 23.2% | 10.1% | 1.14 | 4.44 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |