Javier Chacon — OGILVIE

Javier Chacon P Fort Wayne TinCaps

Age 23 LHP 5'11" / 190 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 43 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113121vR 129

ERA5.05

FIP5.05

K%21.8%

BB%14.2%

K-BB%7.5%

ROS IP44

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 43 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	1	1	0	6	0	3	1	100%	—	0.0%	50.0%	-50.0%	16.7%	—	18.58	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	ACL Padres	1	1	0	6	0	3	1	100%	—	0.0%	50.0%	-50.0%	16.7%	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	11	6	41	181	60	19	7	55%	3.7	22.5%	13.1%	9.4%	5.0%	3.07	5.61	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	ACL Padres	11	6	41	181	60	19	7	55%	3.7	33.1%	10.5%	22.7%	3.9%	3.07	3.78	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	0	27	127	29	27	3	0%	1.8	17.4%	26.2%	-8.9%	0.0%	4.05	4.96	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	0	27	127	29	27	3	0%	1.8	17.4%	26.2%	-8.9%	0.0%	4.05	4.96	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	0	27	127	29	27	3	0%	1.8	22.8%	21.3%	1.6%	2.4%	4.05	5.43	—
2024	21	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	33	5	77	329	93	41	6	15%	2.3	20.9%	14.7%	6.2%	2.5%	3.61	4.56	—
2024	21	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	33	5	77	329	93	41	6	15%	2.3	20.9%	14.7%	6.2%	2.5%	3.61	4.56	—
2024	21	A RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	33	5	77	329	93	41	6	15%	2.3	28.3%	12.5%	15.8%	1.8%	3.61	3.29	—
2025	22	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	3	0	7	30	4	6	0	0%	2.2	13.3%	20.0%	-6.7%	0.0%	2.70	4.51	—
2025	22	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	3	0	7	30	4	6	0	0%	2.2	13.3%	20.0%	-6.7%	0.0%	2.70	4.51	—
2025	22	A RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	3	0	7	30	4	6	0	0%	2.2	13.3%	20.0%	-6.7%	0.0%	2.70	4.60	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	38	0	67	299	82	46	9	0%	1.8	20.9%	17.8%	3.1%	3.8%	3.76	5.67	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	38	0	67	299	82	46	9	0%	1.8	20.9%	17.8%	3.1%	3.8%	3.76	5.67	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	SD	8	0	17	69	24	7	2	0%	2.1	34.8%	10.1%	24.6%	2.9%	1.59	3.04	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	SD	30	0	50	230	58	39	7	0%	1.7	25.2%	17.0%	8.3%	3.0%	4.50	4.79	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	SD	68	0	71	301	68	38	9	0%	1.0	22.5%	12.6%	9.9%	2.9%	4.85	4.77	-0.2
2028	25	MLB MLE	SD	69	0	72	305	70	35	9	0%	1.0	22.9%	11.5%	11.4%	2.9%	4.68	4.59	-0.0
2029	26	MLB MLE	SD	69	0	72	305	71	35	9	0%	1.0	23.2%	11.3%	11.8%	2.9%	4.60	4.56	-0.0
2030	27	MLB MLE	SD	68	0	71	300	69	34	9	0%	1.0	23.1%	11.4%	11.8%	3.0%	4.59	4.59	-0.0
2031	28	MLB MLE	SD	66	0	69	291	67	34	9	0%	1.0	23.0%	11.5%	11.5%	3.1%	4.64	4.68	-0.1
2032	29	MLB MLE	SD	63	0	66	278	63	33	9	0%	1.0	22.8%	11.7%	11.0%	3.2%	4.74	4.81	-0.2
2033	30	MLB MLE	SD	59	0	62	261	59	31	9	0%	1.0	22.4%	12.0%	10.4%	3.4%	4.89	4.98	-0.3
2027	24	MLB CTX	SD	30	0	31	131	29	16	4	0%	1.0	22.5%	12.6%	9.9%	2.9%	4.85	4.77	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	SD	46	0	48	203	46	23	6	0%	1.0	22.9%	11.5%	11.4%	2.9%	4.68	4.59	-0.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	SD	54	0	57	241	56	27	7	0%	1.1	23.2%	11.3%	11.8%	2.9%	4.60	4.56	-0.0
2030	27	MLB CTX	SD	58	0	61	258	60	29	8	0%	1.1	23.1%	11.4%	11.8%	3.0%	4.59	4.59	-0.0
2031	28	MLB CTX	SD	58	0	61	258	59	30	8	0%	1.1	23.0%	11.5%	11.5%	3.1%	4.64	4.68	-0.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	SD	57	0	60	253	58	30	8	0%	1.1	22.8%	11.7%	11.0%	3.2%	4.74	4.81	-0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	SD	54	0	57	241	54	29	8	0%	1.1	22.4%	12.0%	10.4%	3.4%	4.89	4.98	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		357	0	375	1583	362	185	49	0%	1.1	22.9%	11.7%	11.2%	3.1%	4.70	4.33	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	193	99	26	0%	1.1	22.9%	11.7%	11.2%	3.1%	4.70	4.33	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		100	11	219	966	198	165	29	11%	2.2	20.5%	17.0%	3.5%	3.0%	3.58	5.15	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		91	10	200	884	181	150	26	11%	2.2	20.5%	17.0%	3.5%	3.0%	3.58	5.15	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Javier Chacon (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.05	21.8%	14.2%	2.9%	—	4.64	22.9%	11.1%	216	-0.41	—	—	—
Seth Clark L 2023 · 4.23 FIP	23	SU	4.23	22.5%	15.0%	2.1%	.287	5.23	18.4%	0.6%	82	+1.00	4.23	128	88
Brendan Nail L 2019 · 4.88 FIP	23	SU	4.88	23.8%	16.4%	3.1%	.305	3.83	26.2%	15.2%	87	-1.05	3.45	165	88
Keylan Killgore L 2019 · 4.23 FIP	22	SU	4.23	20.7%	12.7%	2.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	161	87
Sean Mellen L 2021 · 4.59 FIP	23	SU	4.59	21.5%	12.1%	3.2%	.364	4.01	21.3%	10.9%	55	-0.58	4.01	101	87
Andrew Walling L 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SU	4.20	23.7%	14.8%	2.2%	.272	3.90	22.0%	8.8%	105	-0.30	3.14	161	86
Ty Madrigal L 2021 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	19.3%	15.7%	2.0%	.329	5.75	17.6%	2.4%	49	+1.19	4.56	107	85
Fred Schlichtholz L 2019 · 4.23 FIP	23	SU	4.23	22.5%	12.8%	2.6%	.368	4.13	18.5%	8.4%	80	-0.10	3.49	175	85
Trevor Seidenberger L 2015 · 4.64 FIP	23	SU	4.64	18.1%	14.3%	2.3%	.248	6.29	13.1%	-1.8%	52	+1.65	4.64	101	84
Daniel Stumpf L 2015 · 4.31 FIP	24	SU	4.31	20.8%	11.5%	2.8%	.268	3.54	22.5%	15.3%	123	-0.77	1.84	238	84
Garrett Irvin L 2023 · 4.42 FIP	24	SU	4.42	23.2%	11.6%	3.3%	.283	4.32	17.7%	2.9%	39	-0.10	4.32	110	84
Jared Tobey L 2019 · 3.99 FIP	23	SU	3.99	21.0%	12.1%	2.1%	.320	5.43	22.4%	8.2%	73	+1.44	3.99	158	84
Caden Monke L 2022 · 5.48 FIP	22	SU	5.48	18.9%	12.8%	4.3%	.323	5.38	19.0%	-0.3%	51	-0.10	4.40	163	83
R.C. Orlan L 2015 · 3.93 FIP	24	SU	3.93	21.0%	10.9%	2.2%	.326	4.62	17.2%	5.0%	119	+0.69	1.71	206	83
Will Mabrey L 2023 · 4.27 FIP	22	SU	4.27	18.5%	12.6%	2.1%	.256	4.27	19.2%	6.6%	62	+0.00	4.14	128	83
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	82
Lucas Knowles L 2021 · 3.90 FIP	23	SW	3.90	20.5%	12.9%	1.6%	.366	4.22	18.5%	9.4%	177	+0.32	3.37	308	82
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	82
Felix Carvallo L 2016 · 4.60 FIP	22	SU	4.60	17.7%	13.0%	2.4%	.332	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	132	82
Andrew Tomasovich L 2017 · 3.99 FIP	23	SU	3.99	21.1%	13.5%	1.8%	.333	4.04	20.3%	6.9%	52	+0.05	3.87	126	82
Jeff Belge L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SU	4.91	24.0%	18.8%	2.7%	.343	3.68	24.2%	10.4%	131	-1.23	3.30	175	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.6	66	22.8%	11.9%	1.17	4.74
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10