Will Mabrey
P
ACL D-backs
Age 25
LHP
6'0" / 185 lbs
ROK
2026 ROS PROJECTION9 act + 30 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 102111vR 120
ERA4.47
FIP4.47
K%22.1%
BB%10.2%
K-BB%11.9%
ROS IP30
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 39 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 43 | 2 | 66 | 268 | 64 | 30 | 6 | 5% | 1.5 | 18.5% | 12.6% | 5.9% | 1.8% | 3.00 | 4.11 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 43 | 2 | 66 | 268 | 64 | 30 | 6 | 5% | 1.5 | 23.9% | 11.2% | 12.7% | 2.2% | 3.00 | 3.71 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 43 | 0 | 46 | 207 | 49 | 23 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.2% | 12.2% | 7.0% | 2.0% | 3.52 | 4.12 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 43 | 0 | 46 | 207 | 49 | 23 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.7% | 11.1% | 12.6% | 2.4% | 3.52 | 3.88 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | 6 | 2 | 9 | 43 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 33% | 1.5 | — | — | — | — | 5.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | ARI | 29 | 0 | 30 | 128 | 28 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.1% | 10.2% | 11.9% | 2.8% | 4.47 | 4.47 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.1% | 10.2% | 11.9% | 2.8% | 4.47 | 4.47 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 39 | 171 | 37 | 18 | 4 | — | — | 21.8% | 10.6% | 11.2% | 2.1% | 4.59 | 3.45 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 29 | 0 | 30 | 128 | 29 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 10.1% | 12.3% | 2.9% | 4.44 | 4.43 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 12 | 0 | 13 | 55 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 10.1% | 12.3% | 2.9% | 4.44 | 4.43 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 12 | 0 | 13 | 55 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 10.1% | 12.3% | 2.9% | 4.44 | 4.05 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 185 | 93 | 31 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 10.1% | 12.3% | 2.9% | 4.44 | 4.05 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 92 | 4 | 121 | 518 | 98 | 64 | 9 | 4% | 1.3 | 19.0% | 12.4% | 6.6% | 1.7% | 3.35 | 4.01 | +2.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 152 | 7 | 200 | 856 | 163 | 106 | 15 | 4% | 1.3 | 19.0% | 12.4% | 6.6% | 1.7% | 3.35 | 4.01 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Will Mabrey (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.47 | 22.1% | 10.2% | 2.8% | — | 4.43 | 22.4% | 12.3% | 30 | -0.04 | — | — | — |
| Colton Johnson L 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.04 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.4% | .309 | 4.49 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.45 | 4.04 | 106 | 87 |
| Elvis Araujo L 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.17 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 2.9% | .308 | 5.33 | 22.9% | 11.1% | 38 | +1.16 | 2.35 | 120 | 86 |
| Jackson Lancaster L 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.45 | 24.0% | 11.1% | 3.6% | .355 | 5.10 | 17.6% | 4.9% | 78 | +0.65 | 4.28 | 127 | 85 |
| Sean Mellen L 2025 · 3.97 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.97 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 101 | 85 |
| Will Gilbert L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.26 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 2.8% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.85 | 141 | 84 |
| Haylen Green L 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.08 | 18.6% | 10.8% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 104 | 84 |
| Gabriel Sequeira L 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.30 | 21.0% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .276 | 5.09 | 23.0% | 2.4% | 14 | +1.79 | 2.65 | 160 | 84 |
| Thomas Burrows L 2025 · 4.17 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .276 | 3.94 | 26.5% | 12.9% | 82 | -0.23 | 2.83 | 271 | 83 |
| Robby Ahlstrom L 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.93 | 22.0% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .294 | 4.22 | 19.9% | 7.8% | 96 | +0.29 | 3.65 | 308 | 83 |
| Jerry Vasto L 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.92 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 2.5% | .382 | 3.44 | 24.0% | 12.5% | 38 | -0.48 | 2.84 | 206 | 83 |
| Jared Tobey L 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.46 | 23.6% | 11.8% | 3.4% | .341 | 8.96 | 20.1% | 1.1% | 25 | +4.50 | 4.11 | 158 | 82 |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.72 | 20.5% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .287 | 3.19 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 66 | -0.53 | 2.79 | 159 | 82 |
| Mitchell Tyranski L 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.25 | 20.4% | 13.6% | 3.9% | .269 | 4.20 | 20.7% | 6.1% | 103 | -1.05 | 3.46 | 145 | 82 |
| Greg Nappo L 2027 · 3.40 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.40 | 22.7% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .267 | 5.45 | 16.5% | 5.9% | 79 | +2.05 | 3.40 | 144 | 82 |
| Bailey Horn L 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.13 | 21.9% | 12.0% | 2.5% | .322 | 4.78 | 22.8% | 10.7% | 110 | +0.65 | 4.13 | 265 | 82 |
| Tony Cingrani L 2027 · 3.61 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.61 | 25.8% | 12.9% | 1.9% | .305 | 3.97 | 25.4% | 15.7% | 128 | +0.36 | 1.79 | 186 | 82 |
| Carson Skipper L 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.65 | 19.9% | 9.1% | 2.0% | .301 | 7.84 | 8.3% | -4.8% | 10 | +4.19 | 2.87 | 186 | 82 |
| Brandon Hughes L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.62 | 27.0% | 11.1% | 2.5% | .300 | 4.49 | 24.4% | 14.8% | 149 | +0.87 | 3.62 | 206 | 81 |
| Ryan Sherriff L 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.10 | 17.1% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .317 | 3.30 | 18.8% | 11.9% | 135 | -0.80 | 2.94 | 245 | 81 |
| Dario Alvarez L 2027 · 3.41 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.41 | 26.0% | 13.1% | 1.5% | .260 | 3.76 | 27.7% | 17.1% | 129 | +0.35 | 3.41 | 160 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 30 | 22.3% | 10.2% | 1.10 | 4.46 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |