Will Mabrey — OGILVIE

Will Mabrey P Amarillo Sod Poodles

Age 25 LHP 6'0" / 185 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 30 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109117vR 125

ERA4.83

FIP4.83

K%20.2%

BB%11.6%

K-BB%8.6%

ROS IP30

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 30 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	43	2	66	268	64	30	6	5%	1.5	18.5%	12.6%	5.9%	2.1%	3.00	4.27	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	43	2	66	268	64	30	6	5%	1.5	18.5%	12.6%	5.9%	2.1%	3.00	4.27	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	43	2	66	268	64	30	6	5%	1.5	23.9%	11.2%	12.7%	2.2%	3.00	3.71	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	43	0	46	207	49	23	5	0%	1.1	19.2%	12.2%	7.0%	2.4%	3.52	4.32	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	43	0	46	207	49	23	5	0%	1.1	19.2%	12.2%	7.0%	2.4%	3.52	4.32	—
2024	23	AA RAW	Amarillo Sod Poodles	43	0	46	207	49	23	5	0%	1.1	23.7%	11.1%	12.6%	2.4%	3.52	3.88	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	22	2	26	118	26	14	1	9%	1.2	19.1%	13.8%	5.4%	1.7%	3.81	4.14	—
YTD	25	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	22	2	26	118	26	14	1	9%	1.2	19.1%	13.8%	5.4%	1.7%	3.81	4.14	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	ROK RAW	ARI	4	2	5	25	5	4	0	50%	1.3	20.0%	16.0%	4.0%	0.0%	3.38	3.44	—
2026	25	A+ RAW	ARI	3	0	4	21	4	1	0	0%	1.4	19.0%	4.8%	14.3%	0.0%	6.23	2.09	—
2026	25	AA RAW	ARI	15	0	16	72	17	9	1	0%	1.1	23.6%	12.5%	11.1%	1.4%	3.31	3.45	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	ARI	39	0	41	175	36	20	5	0%	1.1	20.8%	11.3%	9.5%	2.9%	4.76	4.75	-0.1
2027	26	MLB CTX	ARI	17	0	18	76	16	9	2	0%	1.1	20.8%	11.3%	9.5%	2.9%	4.76	4.75	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		17	0	18	77	16	9	2	0%	1.1	20.8%	11.3%	9.5%	2.9%	4.76	4.37	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	176	99	22	0%	1.1	20.8%	11.3%	9.5%	2.9%	4.76	4.37	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		108	4	138	593	112	75	12	4%	1.3	18.9%	12.7%	6.2%	2.1%	3.33	4.26	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		157	6	200	859	162	109	18	4%	1.3	18.9%	12.7%	6.2%	2.1%	3.33	4.26	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Will Mabrey (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.83	20.2%	11.6%	2.9%	—	4.75	20.8%	9.5%	41	-0.08	—	—	—
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	89
Haylen Green L 2023 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	18.6%	10.8%	2.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	88
Will Gilbert L 2019 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	19.9%	10.3%	3.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	141	85
Elvis Araujo L 2016 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	21.0%	9.8%	2.8%	.308	5.18	22.9%	11.1%	38	+1.09	2.46	120	84
Brian Moran L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SU	4.50	17.7%	14.1%	2.0%	.318	2.74	25.0%	17.4%	80	-1.76	1.80	421	84
Sean Mellen L 2022 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	21.3%	10.4%	2.5%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	101	83
Ryne Slack L 2017 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	17.4%	13.2%	2.0%	.308	5.59	13.9%	1.8%	49	+1.17	4.07	212	83
Michael Johnson L 2016 · 4.67 FIP	25	SU	4.67	18.2%	10.4%	3.3%	.352	4.72	17.4%	7.6%	129	+0.05	3.92	256	83
Bailey Horn L 2023 · 3.97 FIP	25	SU	3.97	20.7%	10.3%	2.4%	.322	4.62	21.8%	11.1%	110	+0.65	3.96	265	82
Seth Clark L 2023 · 4.23 FIP	23	SU	4.23	22.5%	15.0%	2.1%	.287	5.23	18.4%	0.6%	82	+1.00	4.23	128	82
Giovanni Soto L 2016 · 4.01 FIP	25	SU	4.01	21.3%	14.3%	1.6%	.348	4.18	25.6%	15.1%	25	+0.17	3.30	128	82
Hunter Schryver L 2019 · 3.76 FIP	24	SU	3.76	19.2%	11.2%	1.6%	.335	4.47	19.5%	6.0%	80	+0.71	3.58	206	82
Ryan Sherriff L 2015 · 4.27 FIP	25	SU	4.27	17.1%	8.2%	2.9%	.317	3.28	18.8%	11.9%	135	-0.99	2.96	245	82
Bryan Harper L 2015 · 4.90 FIP	25	SU	4.90	15.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.236	4.38	17.1%	5.3%	92	-0.52	4.13	133	82
Jared Tobey L 2021 · 4.11 FIP	25	SU	4.11	23.6%	11.8%	2.8%	.341	8.03	20.1%	1.1%	25	+3.92	3.99	158	82
Thomas Burrows L 2019 · 3.99 FIP	24	SU	3.99	22.0%	10.5%	2.6%	.276	3.93	26.5%	12.9%	82	-0.06	2.67	271	82
Williams Jerez L 2017 · 4.05 FIP	25	SU	4.05	17.8%	8.7%	2.5%	.294	3.81	24.0%	15.1%	127	-0.24	3.58	364	81
Jerry Vasto L 2017 · 4.16 FIP	25	SU	4.16	22.2%	10.2%	3.0%	.382	3.52	24.0%	12.5%	38	-0.64	2.89	206	81
John Beller L 2023 · 4.16 FIP	24	SU	4.16	21.6%	14.2%	2.0%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.16	170	81
Andrew Walling L 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SU	4.20	23.7%	14.8%	2.2%	.272	3.90	22.0%	8.8%	105	-0.30	3.14	161	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	36	20.6%	11.4%	1.12	4.79
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19