Juan Rojas
P
Chesapeake Baysox
Age 22
LHP
6'0" / 165 lbs
AA
peak 0.3 · 2029
2026 ROS PROJECTION36 act + 60 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124133vR 142
ERA5.47
FIP5.47
K%13.6%
BB%14.0%
K-BB%-0.4%
ROS IP60
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 96 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | DSL Twins | 13 | 9 | 40 | 168 | 49 | 14 | 0 | 69% | 3.1 | 19.8% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 0.0% | 1.80 | 2.74 | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | DSL Twins | 13 | 9 | 40 | 168 | 49 | 14 | 0 | 69% | 3.1 | 29.2% | 8.3% | 20.8% | 0.0% | 1.80 | 1.70 | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | FCL Orioles | 11 | 7 | 39 | 148 | 50 | 9 | 3 | 64% | 3.5 | 23.0% | 7.6% | 15.4% | 2.8% | 2.79 | 3.65 | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | FCL Orioles | 11 | 7 | 39 | 148 | 50 | 9 | 3 | 64% | 3.5 | 33.8% | 6.1% | 27.7% | 2.0% | 2.79 | 2.22 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 5 | 32 | 141 | 27 | 20 | 3 | 45% | 2.9 | 13.5% | 14.4% | -0.9% | 3.3% | 5.62 | 5.57 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 5 | 32 | 141 | 27 | 20 | 3 | 45% | 2.9 | 19.1% | 14.2% | 5.0% | 2.1% | 5.62 | 4.51 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 7 | 55 | 236 | 65 | 31 | 1 | 39% | 3.0 | 20.3% | 15.2% | 5.1% | 0.6% | 4.45 | 3.65 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 7 | 55 | 236 | 65 | 31 | 1 | 39% | 3.0 | 27.5% | 13.1% | 14.4% | 0.4% | 4.45 | 2.66 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | 23 | 14 | 85 | 390 | 70 | 41 | 6 | 61% | 3.7 | 13.8% | 12.1% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 4.43 | 4.19 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | 23 | 14 | 85 | 390 | 70 | 41 | 6 | 61% | 3.7 | 17.9% | 10.5% | 7.4% | 1.5% | 4.43 | 3.81 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | AA | Chesapeake Baysox | 23 | 1 | 36 | 174 | 44 | 27 | 3 | 4% | 1.6 | 20.2% | 17.3% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 6.19 | 4.75 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | BAL | 57 | 0 | 60 | 252 | 34 | 35 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.6% | 14.0% | -0.4% | 2.5% | 5.47 | 5.47 | -0.6 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | BAL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.6% | 14.0% | -0.4% | 2.5% | 5.47 | 5.47 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 96 | 426 | 78 | 62 | 9 | — | — | 18.4% | 14.6% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 5.74 | 5.20 | +0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 22 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 13.6% | 14.0% | -0.4% | 2.5% | 5.47 | 5.09 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | BAL | 59 | 0 | 62 | 261 | 42 | 33 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.9% | 12.7% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 5.21 | 5.12 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | BAL | 60 | 0 | 63 | 268 | 46 | 32 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.3% | 11.9% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 5.00 | 4.90 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | BAL | 30 | 0 | 31 | 131 | 21 | 17 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.9% | 12.7% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 5.21 | 5.12 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | BAL | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 33 | 23 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.3% | 11.9% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 5.00 | 4.90 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 73 | 0 | 77 | 324 | 54 | 40 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.7% | 12.3% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 5.09 | 4.62 | +0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 141 | 104 | 21 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.7% | 12.3% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 5.09 | 4.62 | +1.8 | ||
| Career | — | 99 | 43 | 287 | 1257 | 223 | 162 | 19 | 43% | 2.9 | 17.8% | 12.9% | 4.9% | 1.5% | 4.20 | 4.06 | +4.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 69 | 30 | 200 | 876 | 156 | 113 | 13 | 43% | 2.9 | 17.8% | 12.9% | 4.9% | 1.5% | 4.20 | 4.06 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Juan Rojas (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.47 | 13.6% | 14.0% | 2.5% | — | 5.01 | 16.6% | 4.3% | 125 | -0.46 | — | — | — |
| Luis De Paula L 2027 · 4.44 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.44 | 14.8% | 14.2% | 1.4% | .285 | 5.36 | 16.4% | 0.2% | 47 | +0.92 | 4.44 | 125 | 89 |
| Alex Winkelman L 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.37 | 15.8% | 14.7% | 1.4% | .344 | 3.74 | 18.8% | 6.5% | 181 | -0.63 | 3.37 | 246 | 87 |
| Estevan Gonzalez L 2027 · 4.69 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.69 | 14.1% | 10.7% | 2.6% | .322 | 4.80 | 14.7% | 0.1% | 130 | +0.11 | 4.62 | 195 | 86 |
| Tom Windle L 2027 · 4.61 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.61 | 12.3% | 13.0% | 1.6% | .304 | 4.24 | 18.0% | 6.8% | 159 | -0.37 | 3.79 | 330 | 85 |
| Scott Squier L 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.89 | 12.2% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .362 | 4.13 | 13.9% | 7.9% | 234 | -0.76 | 3.30 | 276 | 85 |
| Braeden Fausnaught L 2028 · 4.77 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.77 | 16.9% | 16.4% | 1.8% | .287 | 4.67 | 17.9% | 9.7% | 179 | -0.10 | 4.57 | 242 | 84 |
| Austin Davis L 2026 · 5.07 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.07 | 14.7% | 12.4% | 3.0% | .259 | 2.95 | 23.3% | 15.8% | 151 | -2.12 | 2.22 | 486 | 83 |
| Edwin Escobar L 2027 · 5.93 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.93 | 9.6% | 11.9% | 3.9% | .268 | 4.20 | 13.7% | 4.9% | 122 | -1.73 | 4.20 | 218 | 82 |
| Oscar Armenta L 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.14 | 10.4% | 15.7% | 1.7% | .335 | 3.84 | 7.0% | -3.5% | 11 | -1.30 | 3.84 | 118 | 81 |
| Connor Oliver L 2027 · 4.29 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.29 | 17.3% | 12.1% | 2.0% | .314 | 5.52 | 19.2% | 3.4% | 121 | +1.23 | 4.29 | 200 | 81 |
| Marino Santy L 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.93 | 17.6% | 16.1% | 2.3% | .322 | 4.04 | 21.6% | 3.0% | 65 | -0.89 | 2.78 | 253 | 81 |
| Bryce Hubbart L 2026 · 5.82 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.82 | 17.0% | 26.0% | 1.6% | .303 | 5.00 | 17.4% | 3.9% | 136 | -0.82 | 4.73 | 181 | 80 |
| Ryan Lawlor L 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.36 | 16.1% | 15.8% | 1.1% | .264 | 2.43 | 25.5% | 15.1% | 119 | -1.93 | 2.24 | 201 | 78 |
| Victor Payano L 2026 · 6.19 FIP | 22 | SP- | 6.19 | 14.8% | 16.5% | 4.1% | .287 | 4.92 | 20.5% | 7.0% | 225 | -1.27 | 3.81 | 341 | 78 |
| Andrew Faulkner L 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.84 | 18.0% | 12.8% | 3.0% | .290 | 4.18 | 17.7% | 6.6% | 142 | -0.66 | 3.78 | 252 | 77 |
| Lane Ratliff L 2026 · 6.27 FIP | 22 | SP- | 6.27 | 12.0% | 12.8% | 4.7% | .344 | 3.29 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 80 | -2.98 | 2.85 | 109 | 77 |
| Julian Smith L 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.79 | 14.5% | 17.4% | 1.3% | .399 | 5.33 | 17.9% | 5.8% | 110 | +0.54 | 2.87 | 189 | 76 |
| Jack O'Loughlin L 2026 · 5.15 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.15 | 17.0% | 13.7% | 3.2% | .269 | 4.98 | 17.9% | 6.2% | 239 | -0.17 | 3.83 | 348 | 76 |
| Graeme Stinson L 2027 · 5.61 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.61 | 12.6% | 12.6% | 3.6% | .266 | 4.08 | 21.4% | 8.7% | 101 | -1.53 | 3.54 | 146 | 75 |
| Kikito Severino L 2025 · 5.70 FIP | 21 | SW | 5.70 | 11.9% | 19.5% | 2.1% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 135 | 75 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 62 | 15.6% | 12.8% | 0.97 | 5.22 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |