Juan Rojas — OGILVIE

Juan Rojas P Chesapeake Baysox

Age 22 LHP 6'0" / 165 lbs AA peak 0.3 · 2032

2026 ROS PROJECTION39 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123131vR 139

ERA5.56

FIP5.56

K%13.6%

BB%14.4%

K-BB%-0.8%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 44 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4040

CMD3535

K†3050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	13	9	40	168	49	14	0	69%	3.1	19.8%	10.4%	9.4%	0.0%	1.80	2.74	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Twins	13	9	40	168	49	14	0	69%	3.1	29.2%	8.3%	20.8%	0.0%	1.80	1.70	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	11	7	39	148	50	9	3	64%	3.5	23.0%	7.6%	15.4%	2.8%	2.79	3.66	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	FCL Orioles	11	7	39	148	50	9	3	64%	3.5	33.8%	6.1%	27.7%	2.0%	2.79	2.22	—
2023	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	5	32	141	27	20	3	45%	2.9	13.5%	14.4%	-0.9%	3.3%	5.62	5.60	—
2023	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	5	32	141	27	20	3	45%	2.9	13.5%	14.4%	-0.9%	3.3%	5.62	5.60	—
2023	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	5	32	141	27	20	3	45%	2.9	19.1%	14.2%	5.0%	2.1%	5.62	4.51	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	7	55	236	65	31	1	39%	3.0	20.3%	15.2%	5.1%	0.6%	4.45	3.63	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	7	55	236	65	31	1	39%	3.0	20.3%	15.2%	5.1%	0.6%	4.45	3.63	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	7	55	236	65	31	1	39%	3.0	27.5%	13.1%	14.4%	0.4%	4.45	2.66	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	23	14	85	390	70	41	6	61%	3.7	13.8%	12.1%	1.7%	1.6%	4.43	4.32	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	23	14	85	390	70	41	6	61%	3.7	13.8%	12.1%	1.7%	1.6%	4.43	4.32	—
2025	21	A+ RAW	Aberdeen IronBirds	23	14	85	390	70	41	6	61%	3.7	17.9%	10.5%	7.4%	1.5%	4.43	3.81	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	26	1	39	199	47	36	3	4%	1.5	18.8%	20.3%	-1.5%	1.9%	7.62	5.10	—
YTD	22	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	26	1	39	199	47	36	3	4%	1.5	18.8%	20.3%	-1.5%	1.9%	7.62	5.10	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A+ RAW	BAL	9	0	15	78	14	16	2	0%	1.6	17.9%	20.5%	-2.6%	2.6%	9.20	5.59	—
2026	22	AA RAW	BAL	17	1	24	121	33	20	1	6%	1.4	27.3%	16.5%	10.7%	0.8%	6.66	3.34	—
ROS	22	MLB MLE	BAL	5	0	5	21	3	3	1	0%	1.0	13.6%	14.4%	-0.8%	2.5%	5.56	5.56	-0.1
2026 TOT	22	MLB MLE	BAL	—	—	44	220	50	39	4	—	—	22.6%	17.7%	4.9%	1.6%	7.38	5.15	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	BAL	76	0	80	337	54	44	9	0%	1.0	15.9%	13.0%	2.9%	2.5%	5.28	5.18	-0.6
2028	24	MLB MLE	BAL	78	0	82	345	60	42	9	0%	1.0	17.3%	12.1%	5.2%	2.6%	5.06	4.96	-0.4
2029	25	MLB MLE	BAL	79	0	83	349	63	40	9	0%	1.0	18.0%	11.6%	6.4%	2.6%	4.91	4.83	-0.3
2030	26	MLB MLE	BAL	79	0	83	349	64	40	9	0%	1.0	18.3%	11.4%	6.9%	2.6%	4.84	4.79	-0.2
2031	27	MLB MLE	BAL	78	0	82	344	63	40	9	0%	1.0	18.3%	11.5%	6.8%	2.6%	4.84	4.83	-0.3
2032	28	MLB MLE	BAL	75	0	79	334	67	36	9	0%	1.1	20.2%	10.8%	9.3%	2.7%	4.72	4.65	-0.1
2033	29	MLB MLE	BAL	72	0	76	319	63	35	9	0%	1.0	19.9%	11.1%	8.8%	2.9%	4.75	4.78	-0.2
2034	30	MLB MLE	BAL	68	0	71	300	59	34	9	0%	1.0	19.6%	11.4%	8.2%	3.1%	4.87	4.96	-0.3
2027	23	MLB CTX	BAL	38	0	40	169	27	22	4	0%	1.1	15.9%	13.0%	2.9%	2.5%	5.28	5.18	-0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	BAL	54	0	57	241	42	29	6	0%	1.1	17.3%	12.1%	5.2%	2.6%	5.06	4.96	-0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	BAL	64	0	67	283	51	33	7	0%	1.0	18.0%	11.6%	6.4%	2.6%	4.91	4.83	-0.2
2030	26	MLB CTX	BAL	69	0	72	304	56	35	8	0%	1.0	18.3%	11.4%	6.9%	2.6%	4.84	4.79	-0.2
2031	27	MLB CTX	BAL	70	0	74	312	57	36	8	0%	1.1	18.3%	11.5%	6.8%	2.6%	4.84	4.83	-0.2
2032	28	MLB CTX	BAL	70	0	73	308	62	33	8	0%	1.0	20.2%	10.8%	9.3%	2.7%	4.72	4.65	-0.1
2033	29	MLB CTX	BAL	67	0	70	296	59	33	8	0%	1.0	19.9%	11.1%	8.8%	2.9%	4.75	4.78	-0.2
2034	30	MLB CTX	BAL	64	0	67	283	55	32	9	0%	1.0	19.6%	11.4%	8.2%	3.1%	4.87	4.96	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		496	0	521	2198	409	253	59	0%	1.0	18.6%	11.5%	7.1%	2.7%	4.88	4.47	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	157	97	23	0%	1.0	18.6%	11.5%	7.1%	2.7%	4.88	4.47	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		102	43	290	1282	226	172	20	42%	2.8	17.6%	13.4%	4.2%	1.6%	4.41	4.17	-2.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		70	30	200	885	156	119	14	42%	2.8	17.6%	13.4%	4.2%	1.6%	4.41	4.17	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Juan Rojas (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.56	13.6%	14.4%	2.5%	—	4.99	17.1%	4.9%	244	-0.57	—	—	—
Alex Winkelman L 2016 · 4.44 FIP	22	SW	4.44	15.8%	14.7%	1.5%	.344	3.77	18.8%	6.5%	181	-0.67	3.40	246	87
Braeden Fausnaught L 2023 · 4.77 FIP	24	SW	4.77	16.9%	16.4%	1.8%	.287	4.60	17.9%	9.7%	179	-0.17	4.43	242	85
Tom Windle L 2015 · 4.63 FIP	23	SW	4.63	12.3%	13.0%	1.7%	.304	4.33	18.0%	6.8%	159	-0.30	3.68	330	84
Estevan Gonzalez L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	23	SW	4.77	14.1%	10.7%	2.8%	.322	4.86	14.7%	0.1%	130	+0.09	4.58	195	84
Scott Squier L 2015 · 5.28 FIP	22	SW	5.28	12.2%	11.2%	3.3%	.362	4.06	13.9%	7.9%	234	-1.22	3.29	276	83
Austin Davis L 2015 · 4.83 FIP	22	SW	4.83	14.7%	12.4%	2.5%	.259	2.97	23.3%	15.8%	151	-1.86	2.19	486	83
Oscar Armenta L 2016 · 5.06 FIP	22	SW	5.06	10.4%	15.7%	1.6%	.335	3.84	7.0%	-3.5%	11	-1.22	3.84	118	82
Edwin Escobar L 2015 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	9.6%	11.9%	3.9%	.268	4.28	13.7%	4.9%	122	-1.68	4.28	218	82
Bryce Hubbart L 2023 · 5.87 FIP	22	SW	5.87	17.0%	26.0%	1.7%	.303	5.32	17.8%	4.0%	148	-0.55	4.79	193	81
Victor Payano L 2015 · 6.06 FIP	22	SP-	6.06	14.8%	16.5%	3.9%	.287	4.82	20.5%	7.0%	225	-1.24	3.78	341	78
Lane Ratliff L 2017 · 6.08 FIP	22	SP-	6.08	12.0%	12.8%	4.3%	.344	3.25	15.9%	7.7%	80	-2.83	2.85	109	78
Ryan Lawlor L 2016 · 4.52 FIP	22	SP-	4.52	16.1%	15.8%	1.4%	.264	2.42	25.5%	15.1%	119	-2.10	2.24	201	78
Jack O'Loughlin L 2022 · 4.83 FIP	22	SW	4.83	17.0%	13.7%	2.6%	.269	4.81	17.0%	6.8%	239	-0.02	3.78	348	77
Kikito Severino L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	21	SW	5.78	11.9%	19.5%	2.2%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	3.87	135	77
Graeme Stinson L 2021 · 5.66 FIP	23	SU	5.66	12.6%	12.6%	3.7%	.266	4.14	21.4%	8.7%	101	-1.52	3.56	146	76
Julian Smith L 2019 · 4.79 FIP	22	SW	4.79	14.5%	17.4%	1.3%	.399	5.33	17.9%	5.8%	110	+0.54	2.87	189	76
Andrew Faulkner L 2015 · 4.74 FIP	22	SP-	4.74	18.0%	12.8%	2.8%	.290	4.06	17.7%	6.6%	142	-0.68	3.70	252	75
Wilfred Salaman L 2019 · 4.82 FIP	21	SU	4.82	13.1%	12.0%	2.4%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	4.26	218	74
Davis Schwab L 2019 · 4.46 FIP	22	SU	4.46	13.6%	13.8%	1.4%	.368	5.22	18.9%	-0.8%	92	+0.76	4.46	114	73
Luis Gutierrez L 2023 · 4.75 FIP	20	SW	4.75	14.7%	15.8%	1.6%	.374	4.08	16.2%	7.4%	210	-0.67	3.26	296	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.5	77	18.0%	11.9%	1.03	4.97
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58