Juan Rojas
P
Frederick Keys
+0.1
WAR
Age 22
LHP
6'0" / 165 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 1.9 · 2030
ERA4.65
FIP4.65
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%19.2%
BB%11.0%
K-BB%8.3%
IP85
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.9peak
2030
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | DSL Twins | 13 | 9 | 40 | 168 | 49 | 14 | 0 | 19.8% | 10.4% | 0.0% | 1.80 | 2.74 | +1.0 |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | FCL Orioles | 11 | 7 | 39 | 148 | 50 | 9 | 3 | 23.0% | 7.6% | 2.8% | 2.79 | 3.66 | +0.6 |
| 2023 | 19 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | 11 | 5 | 32 | 141 | 27 | 20 | 3 | 13.5% | 14.4% | 3.3% | 5.62 | 5.61 | -0.2 |
| 2024 | 20 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | 18 | 7 | 55 | 236 | 65 | 31 | 1 | 20.3% | 15.2% | 0.6% | 4.45 | 3.65 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | 23 | 14 | 85 | 390 | 70 | 41 | 6 | 13.8% | 12.1% | 1.6% | 4.43 | 4.35 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Frederick Keys | 4 | 0 | 7 | 33 | 8 | 4 | 2 | — | — | — | 9.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | BAL | 16 | 16 | 85 | 360 | 69 | 39 | 9 | 19.2% | 10.9% | 2.6% | 4.65 | 4.65 | +0.5 |
| 2026 Total | 22 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 92 | 393 | 77 | 43 | 11 | 19.6% | 11.0% | 2.9% | 4.98 | 4.30 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | BAL | 20 | 20 | 108 | 458 | 94 | 45 | 12 | 20.5% | 9.9% | 2.6% | 4.49 | 4.41 | +1.1 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | BAL | 23 | 23 | 127 | 537 | 114 | 50 | 14 | 21.2% | 9.3% | 2.6% | 4.36 | 4.27 | +1.5 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | BAL | 26 | 26 | 141 | 594 | 129 | 53 | 15 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 2.6% | 4.27 | 4.20 | +1.8 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | BAL | 27 | 27 | 148 | 624 | 136 | 56 | 16 | 21.8% | 8.9% | 2.6% | 4.22 | 4.18 | +1.9 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 27 | 27 | 151 | 636 | 139 | 57 | 17 | 21.9% | 8.9% | 2.6% | 4.20 | 4.19 | +1.9 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 27 | 27 | 150 | 635 | 139 | 57 | 17 | 21.8% | 9.0% | 2.6% | 4.21 | 4.22 | +1.8 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 27 | 27 | 147 | 621 | 135 | 56 | 17 | 21.7% | 9.1% | 2.7% | 4.24 | 4.26 | +1.7 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 26 | 26 | 143 | 602 | 129 | 55 | 16 | 21.5% | 9.2% | 2.7% | 4.29 | 4.32 | +1.6 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 25 | 25 | 138 | 581 | 124 | 54 | 16 | 21.3% | 9.3% | 2.8% | 4.35 | 4.40 | +1.4 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | BAL | 24 | 24 | 132 | 558 | 117 | 53 | 16 | 21.0% | 9.4% | 2.9% | 4.43 | 4.48 | +1.2 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB | BAL | 23 | 23 | 126 | 533 | 110 | 51 | 16 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 4.52 | 4.58 | +1.0 |
| 2038 | 34 | MLB | BAL | 22 | 22 | 120 | 506 | 103 | 50 | 16 | 20.3% | 9.8% | 3.1% | 4.62 | 4.69 | +0.8 |
| 2039 | 35 | MLB | BAL | 21 | 21 | 113 | 477 | 95 | 48 | 15 | 19.9% | 10.0% | 3.2% | 4.74 | 4.81 | +0.6 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 80 | 42 | 258 | 1116 | 196 | 136 | 19 | 17.6% | 12.2% | 1.7% | 4.05 | 4.07 | +3.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 62 | 33 | 200 | 866 | 152 | 106 | 15 | 17.6% | 12.2% | 1.7% | 4.05 | 4.07 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Juan Rojas (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.65 | 19.2% | 10.9% | 2.6% | — | 4.28 | 21.2% | 11.8% | 376 | -0.37 | — | — | — |
| Andrew Faulkner L 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.76 | 18.0% | 12.8% | 2.9% | .290 | 4.07 | 17.7% | 6.6% | 142 | -0.69 | 3.72 | 252 | 97 |
| Riley Cooper L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.27 | 16.6% | 12.0% | 1.9% | .287 | 4.70 | 16.5% | 8.0% | 32 | +0.43 | 4.27 | 120 | 95 |
| Rylan Kaufman L 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.67 | 19.3% | 12.1% | 3.0% | .305 | 4.75 | 18.9% | 4.5% | 131 | +0.08 | 4.01 | 212 | 93 |
| Dominic Perachi L 2026 · 5.19 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.19 | 17.5% | 13.9% | 3.3% | .324 | 3.56 | 17.8% | 7.8% | 150 | -1.63 | 3.30 | 240 | 92 |
| John Beller L 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.60 | 19.7% | 14.1% | 2.5% | .326 | 4.38 | 22.2% | 7.1% | 90 | -0.22 | 4.21 | 170 | 91 |
| Connor O'Halloran L 2025 · 5.08 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.08 | 17.2% | 12.3% | 3.4% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.08 | 104 | 91 |
| Drew Dowd L 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.39 | 16.1% | 11.7% | 2.1% | .280 | 3.14 | 24.9% | 16.0% | 55 | -1.25 | 3.14 | 166 | 90 |
| Keegan Akin L 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.63 | 20.2% | 12.5% | 3.0% | .303 | 4.26 | 22.2% | 10.7% | 276 | -0.37 | 2.56 | 718 | 90 |
| Cole Kirschsieper L 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.04 | 15.2% | 12.0% | 3.1% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.04 | 105 | 90 |
| Adam Tulloch L 2027 · 4.51 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.51 | 20.3% | 14.1% | 2.5% | .313 | 4.46 | 17.7% | 2.8% | 117 | -0.05 | 4.21 | 212 | 89 |
| Sam Garcia L 2027 · 5.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.14 | 18.5% | 12.7% | 3.6% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.14 | 101 | 89 |
| Bryan Radziewski L 2027 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.15 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.0% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 106 | 88 |
| Shane Drohan L 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.12 | 16.6% | 13.9% | 1.2% | .313 | 5.14 | 21.1% | 8.6% | 264 | +1.02 | 2.89 | 400 | 88 |
| Max Fried L 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.85 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 3.2% | .301 | 3.73 | 22.6% | 13.4% | 378 | -1.12 | 2.46 | 1,369 | 88 |
| Austin Davis L 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.86 | 14.7% | 12.4% | 2.6% | .259 | 2.96 | 23.3% | 15.8% | 151 | -1.90 | 2.22 | 486 | 88 |
| Mason Green L 2027 · 4.20 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.20 | 16.2% | 12.2% | 1.7% | .329 | 4.64 | 19.0% | 5.1% | 252 | +0.44 | 3.72 | 364 | 87 |
| Seth Lonsway L 2027 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.40 | 21.2% | 14.4% | 2.3% | .304 | 4.18 | 16.0% | 4.2% | 319 | -0.22 | 3.35 | 414 | 87 |
| Kyle Carr L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.24 | 16.2% | 14.0% | 1.3% | .310 | 4.18 | 16.8% | 5.1% | 133 | -0.06 | 4.18 | 237 | 87 |
| Damon Jones L 2027 · 4.12 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.12 | 18.8% | 12.2% | 1.9% | .321 | 3.83 | 25.8% | 10.9% | 156 | -0.29 | 3.69 | 269 | 87 |
| Tate Kuehner L 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.06 | 20.5% | 13.9% | 1.7% | .275 | 3.73 | 20.9% | 7.7% | 116 | -0.33 | 2.85 | 221 | 87 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.9 | $17M | +$16M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.9 | $18M | +$17M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +1.8 | $17M | +$16M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +1.7 | $17M | +$15M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +1.6 | $16M | +$13M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $4M | +1.4 | $15M | +$10M |
| Totals | $13M | $99M | +$87M | ||