Jack O'Loughlin

P Albuquerque Isotopes

Age 27 LHP 6'5" / 223 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	23	MIX2 levels	27	25	124	3.99	3.40	21.7%	9.6%	—	K 18.0% · BB 9.3% · FIP 3.86
2024	24	MIX2 levels	36	10	83	5.88	5.27	22.2%	10.1%	-0.7	K 20.2% · BB 9.0% · FIP 5.55
2025	25	MIX2 levels	19	10	46	6.70	6.06	14.2%	16.0%	—	K 11.5% · BB 15.5% · FIP 6.08
2026	26	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	27	MLBCOL	1	1	6	6.34	6.34	12.4%	16.4%	-0.1
2028PROJ43% MLB	28	MLBCOL	3	3	19	6.18	6.22	13.4%	15.9%	-0.2
2029PROJ59% MLB	29	MLBCOL	4	4	22	6.14	6.21	13.9%	15.6%	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.7 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff30Control25Command20

CompsDan Meyer (age 27) · Jake Miednik (age 26) · Brian Holmes (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137145vR 154

ERA6.34

FIP6.34

K%12.4%

BB%16.4%

K-BB%-4.1%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL2525

CMD2020

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	14	61	250	52	23	2	100%	4.4	15.3%	10.4%	4.8%	1.2%	2.64	3.78	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	14	14	61	250	52	23	2	100%	4.4	20.8%	9.2%	11.6%	0.8%	2.64	2.95	—
2022	22	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	27	6	52	226	50	27	4	22%	1.9	17.0%	13.7%	3.3%	2.6%	4.01	4.83	—
2022	22	A+ RAW	West Michigan Whitecaps	27	6	52	226	50	27	4	22%	1.9	22.1%	11.9%	10.2%	1.8%	4.01	3.74	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	25	124	544	118	52	9	93%	4.6	18.0%	9.3%	8.7%	2.0%	3.99	3.86	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	25	124	544	118	52	9	93%	4.6	21.7%	9.6%	12.1%	1.7%	3.99	3.40	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	10	83	387	86	39	18	28%	2.3	20.2%	9.0%	11.2%	5.5%	5.88	5.55	-0.9
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	10	83	387	86	39	18	28%	2.3	20.2%	9.0%	11.2%	5.5%	5.88	5.55	-0.9
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	10	83	387	86	39	18	28%	2.3	22.2%	10.1%	12.1%	4.7%	5.88	5.27	-0.7
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	10	46	225	32	36	7	53%	2.4	11.5%	15.5%	-4.0%	3.6%	6.70	6.08	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	10	46	225	32	36	7	53%	2.4	11.5%	15.5%	-4.0%	3.6%	6.70	6.08	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	10	46	225	32	36	7	53%	2.4	14.2%	16.0%	-1.8%	3.1%	6.70	6.06	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			4	0	10	47	6	5	1	0%	2.4	12.8%	10.6%	2.1%	2.1%	4.66	4.76	-0.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	COL	1	1	6	25	3	4	1	100%	6.0	12.4%	16.4%	-4.1%	3.3%	6.34	6.34	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	COL	7	7	45	188	25	30	6	100%	6.4	13.4%	15.9%	-2.5%	3.4%	6.18	6.22	-0.4
2029	29	MLB MLE	COL	6	6	38	159	22	25	6	100%	6.3	13.9%	15.6%	-1.7%	3.5%	6.14	6.21	-0.3
2028	28	MLB CTX	COL	3	3	19	80	11	13	3	100%	6.3	13.4%	15.9%	-2.5%	3.4%	6.18	6.22	-0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	COL	4	4	22	93	13	14	3	100%	5.5	13.9%	15.6%	-1.7%	3.5%	6.14	6.21	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		11	7	51	221	30	32	7	64%	4.6	13.5%	14.6%	-1.2%	3.2%	5.87	5.56	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		43	27	200	869	118	126	28	63%	4.7	13.5%	14.6%	-1.2%	3.2%	5.87	5.56	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		123	65	365	1632	279	177	49	53%	3.0	17.1%	10.9%	6.2%	3.0%	4.53	4.69	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		67	36	200	893	153	97	27	53%	3.0	17.1%	10.9%	6.2%	3.0%	4.53	4.69	-1.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 42 IPFIP 5.99 → 6.08 (+0.09)K% 13.4% → 11.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.40%	—	×0.860	11.52%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.22%	—	×0.900	15.50%
HR / BF /BF	3.35%	÷1.017	×1.100	3.62%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 5.99 → 6.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 73 IPFIP 5.12 → 5.55 (+0.42)K% 23.5% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.53%	—	×0.860	20.24%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.00%	—	×0.900	9.00%
HR / BF /BF	5.00%	÷1.001	×1.100	5.49%

Result: FIP 5.12 → 5.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 87 IPFIP 3.88 → 4.29 (+0.41)K% 20.8% → 17.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.79%	—	×0.860	17.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.74%	—	×0.900	8.76%
HR / BF /BF	2.37%	÷0.901	×1.100	2.89%

Result: FIP 3.88 → 4.29, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 37 IPFIP 2.25 → 2.89 (+0.64)K% 23.8% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.78%	—	×0.770	18.31%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.15%	—	×1.150	10.52%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.882	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 76).

Result: FIP 2.25 → 2.89, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 52 IPFIP 3.72 → 4.83 (+1.12)K% 22.1% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.12%	—	×0.770	17.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.95%	—	×1.150	13.74%
HR / BF /BF	1.77%	÷0.847	×1.250	2.61%

Result: FIP 3.72 → 4.83, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 37 IPFIP 2.47 → 3.50 (+1.03)K% 26.5% → 19.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.53%	—	×0.740	19.63%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.80%	—	×1.180	8.03%
HR / BF /BF	1.36%	÷0.937	×1.300	1.89%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 87).

Result: FIP 2.47 → 3.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 20 IPFIP 3.83 → 4.27 (+0.44)K% 10.3% → 8.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	10.34%	—	×0.770	7.97%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.64%	—	×1.150	14.54%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.841	×1.250	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.83 → 4.27, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jack O'Loughlin (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.34	12.4%	16.4%	3.3%	—	6.22	13.6%	-2.2%	82	-0.12	—	—	—
Dan Meyer L 2008 · 5.66 FIP	27	SW	5.66	15.2%	10.6%	4.5%	.315	3.73	23.1%	15.2%	58	-1.93	3.73	112	65
Jake Miednik L 2022 · 6.12 FIP	26	SP-	6.12	10.5%	14.6%	3.8%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	1.55	126	65
Brian Holmes L 2017 · 5.91 FIP	26	SW	5.91	15.5%	11.7%	4.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	205	64
Matt Stalcup L 2016 · 6.20 FIP	26	SW	6.20	11.5%	12.7%	4.5%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	145	63
Luis Ysla L 2019 · 5.78 FIP	27	SP-	5.78	18.0%	14.4%	4.3%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	378	62
Cody Dickson L 2017 · 5.48 FIP	25	SW	5.48	15.9%	14.6%	3.4%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.88	354	61
Matthew Spann L 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SW	5.15	15.1%	16.9%	2.2%	.375	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	173	61
Nick Allgeyer L 2023 · 5.65 FIP	27	SW	5.65	18.9%	12.1%	4.8%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.74	390	60
Kevin Smith L 2022 · 6.20 FIP	25	SW	6.20	17.5%	16.2%	4.6%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	248	59
Demetrio Gutierrez L 2017 · 5.46 FIP	27	SW	5.46	11.4%	9.6%	3.8%	.381	3.68	17.1%	11.8%	49	-1.78	3.68	322	59
Mitch Stallings L 2021 · 5.48 FIP	26	SW	5.48	16.8%	11.5%	4.3%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	2.18	108	59
Pat Misch L 2009 · 5.15 FIP	27	SW	5.15	8.5%	7.4%	3.3%	.271	3.50	14.5%	12.6%	38	-1.65	3.50	265	58
Daniel Tillo L 2023 · 5.18 FIP	27	SW	5.18	11.5%	17.0%	1.6%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	350	56
Brad Mills L 2011 · 5.37 FIP	26	SP-	5.37	19.8%	12.1%	4.4%	.328	5.61	18.8%	7.9%	21	+0.24	4.22	243	56
Dalton Stambaugh L 2022 · 5.32 FIP	25	SW	5.32	15.4%	11.9%	3.7%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.18	148	55
Matt Hall L 2020 · 6.12 FIP	27	SW	6.12	16.7%	18.5%	3.8%	.450	4.47	17.5%	2.8%	37	-1.65	2.60	535	55
Luis Lugo L 2021 · 5.21 FIP	27	SP-	5.21	19.5%	13.2%	3.8%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	622	53
Zac Lowther L 2022 · 5.67 FIP	26	SP-	5.67	17.8%	10.6%	5.0%	.436	—	—	—	—	—	3.09	375	53
Ben Braymer L 2021 · 6.27 FIP	27	SP	6.27	15.8%	14.3%	4.9%	.262	6.15	13.2%	0.5%	79	-0.12	3.39	489	53
Heath Murray L 2001 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	14.0%	11.6%	3.6%	.333	6.02	20.0%	7.3%	12	+0.62	4.69	159	53

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	50	13.1%	15.7%	1.27	6.14
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Matt Perisho ('05)	1.4	69	15.2%	12.2%	1.37	6.39
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Lloyd Allen ('69-'75, -5 WAR*)	1.5	59	19.8%*	13.9%*	0.79*	5.99*
Darrel Akerfelds ('86-'91, -3 WAR*)	1.2	78	15.8%*	11.9%*	1.61*	5.40*