Austin Davis
P
El Paso Chihuahuas
Age 33
LHP
6'4" / 235 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 53 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110119vR 128
ERA4.76
FIP4.82
K%22.7%
BB%14.5%
K-BB%8.2%
ROS IP54
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
FB (38%)
CT (38%)
SI (38%)
SL-1.1 (24%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | A | Lakewood BlueClaws | 33 | 11 | 96 | 409 | 81 | 43 | 7 | 33% | 2.9 | 14.7% | 12.4% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.76 | 5.07 | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A | Lakewood BlueClaws | 33 | 11 | 96 | 409 | 81 | 43 | 7 | 33% | 2.9 | 19.8% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 1.7% | 3.76 | 3.71 | — |
| 2016 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 20 | 1 | 32 | 132 | 39 | 8 | 0 | 5% | 1.6 | 20.7% | 6.9% | 13.8% | 0.0% | 2.51 | 2.22 | — |
| 2016 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 20 | 1 | 32 | 132 | 39 | 8 | 0 | 5% | 1.6 | 29.5% | 6.1% | 23.5% | 0.0% | 2.51 | 1.43 | — |
| 2017 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 0 | 69 | 286 | 75 | 22 | 4 | 0% | 1.7 | 20.8% | 8.5% | 12.3% | 1.3% | 2.60 | 3.11 | — |
| 2017 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 0 | 69 | 286 | 75 | 22 | 4 | 0% | 1.7 | 26.2% | 7.7% | 18.5% | 1.4% | 2.60 | 2.64 | — |
| 2018 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 60 | 0 | 73 | 307 | 88 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.2 | 26.5% | 6.6% | 19.9% | 2.3% | 3.45 | 2.95 | +1.6 |
| 2018 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 60 | 0 | 73 | 307 | 88 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.2 | 28.7% | 6.2% | 22.5% | 2.3% | 3.45 | 2.72 | +1.8 |
| 2019 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 51 | 0 | 73 | 320 | 88 | 35 | 8 | 0% | 1.4 | 25.1% | 11.3% | 13.8% | 2.8% | 3.82 | 3.92 | +0.8 |
| 2019 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 51 | 0 | 73 | 320 | 88 | 35 | 8 | 0% | 1.4 | 27.5% | 10.9% | 16.6% | 2.5% | 3.82 | 3.55 | +1.1 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 9 | 0 | 7 | 32 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 0.7 | 15.6% | 6.2% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 10.80 | 4.29 | +0.0 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 9 | 0 | 7 | 32 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 0.7 | 15.6% | 6.2% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 10.80 | 4.45 | +0.0 |
| 2021 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 42 | 0 | 43 | 177 | 52 | 16 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.9% | 8.5% | 15.4% | 3.4% | 4.15 | 4.02 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 42 | 0 | 43 | 177 | 52 | 16 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.4% | 9.0% | 20.3% | 2.3% | 4.15 | 3.01 | +0.8 |
| 2022 | 29 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 52 | 3 | 56 | 264 | 64 | 32 | 5 | 6% | 1.1 | 24.2% | 12.1% | 12.1% | 1.9% | 5.79 | 3.62 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 29 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 52 | 3 | 56 | 264 | 64 | 32 | 5 | 6% | 1.1 | 24.2% | 12.1% | 12.1% | 1.9% | 5.79 | 3.69 | +0.6 |
| 2023 | 30 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 20 | 0 | 26 | 147 | 34 | 38 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 20.4% | 27.1% | -6.8% | 2.8% | 11.22 | 6.37 | — |
| 2023 | 30 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 20 | 0 | 26 | 147 | 34 | 38 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 23.1% | 25.9% | -2.7% | 2.0% | 11.22 | 6.41 | — |
| 2024 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 54 | 0 | 55 | 240 | 67 | 26 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.9% | 10.7% | 15.3% | 0.0% | 4.12 | 2.26 | +1.5 |
| 2024 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 54 | 0 | 55 | 240 | 67 | 26 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.9% | 10.8% | 17.1% | 0.0% | 4.12 | 2.08 | +1.6 |
| 2025 | 32 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 11 | 1 | 11 | 61 | 12 | 10 | 1 | 9% | 1.0 | 17.3% | 17.2% | 0.1% | 1.9% | 11.91 | 4.85 | — |
| 2025 | 32 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 11 | 1 | 11 | 61 | 12 | 10 | 1 | 9% | 1.0 | 19.7% | 16.4% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 11.91 | 4.78 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | SD | 51 | 0 | 54 | 226 | 51 | 33 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.7% | 14.5% | 8.2% | 2.6% | 4.76 | 4.82 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | SD | 46 | 0 | 49 | 206 | 45 | 31 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.8% | 15.0% | 6.8% | 2.9% | 4.98 | 5.12 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | SD | 42 | 0 | 44 | 185 | 38 | 29 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.9% | 15.6% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 5.27 | 5.46 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | SD | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.8% | 15.0% | 6.8% | 2.9% | 4.98 | 5.12 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | SD | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 20.9% | 15.6% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 5.27 | 5.46 | — |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 146 | 3 | 154 | 708 | 168 | 75 | 20 | 2% | 1.1 | 23.7% | 10.6% | 13.1% | 2.9% | 5.75 | 4.02 | +2.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 189 | 4 | 200 | 917 | 218 | 97 | 26 | 2% | 1.1 | 23.7% | 10.6% | 13.1% | 2.9% | 5.75 | 4.02 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 394 | 16 | 541 | 2375 | 523 | 266 | 49 | 4% | 1.4 | 22.0% | 11.2% | 10.8% | 2.1% | 4.39 | 3.79 | +10.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 146 | 6 | 200 | 878 | 193 | 98 | 18 | 4% | 1.4 | 22.0% | 11.2% | 10.8% | 2.1% | 4.39 | 3.79 | +3.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Austin Davis (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.82 | 22.7% | 14.5% | 2.6% | — | 5.28 | 21.4% | 6.1% | 92 | +0.46 | — | — | — |
| Adam Loewen L 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.13 | 23.4% | 17.4% | 1.5% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 176 | 82 |
| Brandon Mann L 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.51 | 19.8% | 11.3% | 3.0% | .286 | 3.60 | 17.8% | 6.4% | 52 | -0.91 | 3.60 | 190 | 80 |
| Ryan O'Rourke L 2024 · 4.13 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.13 | 22.1% | 14.3% | 2.0% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 145 | 79 |
| Dan Runzler L 2025 · 4.45 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.45 | 17.5% | 11.0% | 2.6% | .325 | 4.79 | 16.0% | 3.0% | 27 | +0.34 | 3.77 | 127 | 75 |
| Phil Coke L 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.00 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .373 | 3.04 | 18.0% | 11.3% | 70 | -0.96 | 3.04 | 101 | 74 |
| Ryan Sherriff L 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.96 | 22.4% | 12.9% | 2.1% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.94 | 245 | 74 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2024 · 4.29 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.29 | 18.6% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 124 | 71 |
| Anthony Gose L 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.88 | 27.0% | 13.1% | 2.6% | .279 | 5.79 | 22.3% | 7.5% | 71 | +1.91 | 3.88 | 207 | 70 |
| Zach Phillips L 2025 · 3.65 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.65 | 19.1% | 8.5% | 2.0% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.29 | 202 | 70 |
| Jeff Beliveau L 2024 · 3.76 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.76 | 23.3% | 14.4% | 1.5% | .309 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 137 | 68 |
| Marc Rzepczynski L 2026 · 5.24 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.24 | 14.8% | 13.2% | 3.1% | .340 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.79 | 181 | 68 |
| Boone Logan L 2026 · 5.55 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.55 | 24.1% | 12.1% | 5.4% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 113 | 67 |
| Rex Brothers L 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.23 | 31.8% | 14.0% | 3.7% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 205 | 66 |
| Brian Moran L 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.25 | 21.7% | 7.0% | 3.8% | .304 | 3.85 | 21.9% | 14.0% | 152 | -0.40 | 1.67 | 421 | 65 |
| Neal Cotts L 2028 · 4.65 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.65 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 4.4% | .257 | 4.01 | 21.9% | 14.5% | 93 | -0.64 | 3.24 | 156 | 64 |
| Luis Avilán L 2026 · 5.19 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.19 | 22.2% | 10.0% | 4.9% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 256 | 64 |
| Tony Sipp L 2026 · 5.72 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.72 | 20.5% | 9.2% | 5.8% | .320 | 3.38 | 24.4% | 15.6% | 97 | -2.34 | 2.18 | 195 | 62 |
| Craig Breslow L 2027 · 4.86 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.86 | 16.4% | 6.4% | 4.2% | .279 | 4.51 | 16.2% | 6.5% | 94 | -0.35 | 4.22 | 159 | 62 |
| Alejandro Soto L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.97 | 17.1% | 6.9% | 2.6% | .376 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 280 | 61 |
| Grant Dayton L 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.00 | 23.0% | 8.2% | 3.3% | .325 | 3.83 | 23.2% | 13.5% | 49 | -0.17 | 1.73 | 277 | 61 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 49 | 21.9% | 15.0% | 1.11 | 4.99 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |