Austin Davis

P El Paso Chihuahuas

Age 34 LHP 6'4" / 235 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	30	AAAHOU	20	0	26	11.22	6.41	23.1%	25.9%	—	K 19.9% · BB 23.3% · FIP 5.74
2024	31	MIX2 levels	54	0	55	4.12	2.08	27.9%	10.8%	1.6	K 25.3% · BB 9.1% · FIP 2.12
2025	32	AAASD	11	1	11	11.91	4.78	19.7%	16.4%	—	K 16.9% · BB 14.8% · FIP 4.55
2026	33	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	34	MLBSD	5	0	5	4.36	4.40	23.2%	10.4%	0.0
2028PROJ6% MLB	35	MLBSD	2	0	2	4.59	4.74	22.2%	11.0%	-0.0
2029PROJMLE	36	MLBSD	—	—	0	4.90	5.11	21.2%	11.6%	—

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.6 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff54Control36Command47FB velo50

CompsJuan Pablo Perez (age 34) · Ryan Buchter (age 34) · Pedro Borbón (age 34)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 101109vR 117

ERA4.36

FIP4.40

K%23.2%

BB%10.4%

K-BB%12.8%

Proj IP53

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL3535

CMD4545

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	22	A MLE	Lakewood BlueClaws	33	11	96	409	81	43	7	33%	2.9	14.7%	12.4%	2.2%	2.6%	3.76	4.83	—
2015	22	A RAW	Lakewood BlueClaws	33	11	96	409	81	43	7	33%	2.9	19.8%	10.5%	9.3%	1.7%	3.76	3.71	—
2016	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	1	32	132	39	8	0	5%	1.6	20.7%	6.9%	13.8%	0.0%	2.51	2.22	—
2016	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	20	1	32	132	39	8	0	5%	1.6	29.5%	6.1%	23.5%	0.0%	2.51	1.43	—
2017	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	69	286	75	22	4	0%	1.7	20.8%	8.5%	12.3%	1.4%	2.60	3.21	—
2017	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	69	286	75	22	4	0%	1.7	26.2%	7.7%	18.5%	1.4%	2.60	2.64	—
2018	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	60	0	73	307	88	19	7	0%	1.2	26.5%	6.6%	19.9%	2.2%	3.45	2.90	+1.4
2018	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	60	0	73	307	88	19	7	0%	1.2	28.7%	6.2%	22.5%	2.3%	3.45	2.72	+1.6
2019	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	0	73	320	88	35	8	0%	1.4	25.1%	11.3%	13.8%	2.5%	3.82	3.80	+0.6
2019	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	51	0	73	320	88	35	8	0%	1.4	27.5%	10.9%	16.6%	2.5%	3.82	3.55	+0.9
2020	27	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	9	0	7	32	5	2	1	0%	0.7	15.6%	6.2%	9.4%	3.1%	10.80	4.29	+0.0
2020	27	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	9	0	7	32	5	2	1	0%	0.7	15.6%	6.2%	9.4%	3.1%	10.80	4.45	+0.0
2021	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	42	0	43	177	52	16	4	0%	1.0	23.9%	8.5%	15.4%	3.5%	4.15	4.09	+0.2
2021	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	42	0	43	177	52	16	4	0%	1.0	29.4%	9.0%	20.3%	2.3%	4.15	3.01	+0.8
2022	29	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	52	3	56	264	64	32	5	6%	1.1	24.2%	12.1%	12.1%	1.9%	5.79	3.62	+0.6
2022	29	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	52	3	56	264	64	32	5	6%	1.1	24.2%	12.1%	12.1%	1.9%	5.79	3.69	+0.6
2023	30	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	20	0	26	147	34	38	3	0%	1.3	19.9%	23.3%	-3.4%	2.5%	11.22	5.74	—
2023	30	AAA RAW	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	20	0	26	147	34	38	3	0%	1.3	23.1%	25.9%	-2.7%	2.0%	11.22	6.41	—
2024	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	0	55	240	67	26	0	0%	1.0	25.3%	9.1%	16.2%	0.0%	4.12	2.12	+1.6
2024	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	0	55	240	67	26	0	0%	1.0	25.3%	9.1%	16.2%	0.0%	4.12	2.12	+1.6
2024	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	54	0	55	240	67	26	0	0%	1.0	27.9%	10.8%	17.1%	0.0%	4.12	2.08	+1.6
2025	32	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	11	1	11	61	12	10	1	9%	1.0	16.9%	14.8%	2.2%	1.8%	11.91	4.55	—
2025	32	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	11	1	11	61	12	10	1	9%	1.0	16.9%	14.8%	2.2%	1.8%	11.91	4.55	—
2025	32	AAA RAW	El Paso Chihuahuas	11	1	11	61	12	10	1	9%	1.0	19.7%	16.4%	3.3%	1.6%	11.91	4.78	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			143	3	151	695	165	73	20	2%	1.1	23.7%	10.5%	13.2%	2.9%	5.77	4.08	+0.8
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	34	MLB	SD	5	0	5	21	5	2	1	0%	1.0	23.2%	10.4%	12.8%	2.8%	4.36	4.40	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	35	MLB MLE	SD	36	0	38	161	36	18	5	0%	1.1	22.2%	11.0%	11.3%	3.2%	4.59	4.74	-0.1
2029	36	MLB MLE	SD	27	0	28	120	25	14	4	0%	1.1	21.2%	11.6%	9.6%	3.6%	4.90	5.11	-0.2
2028	35	MLB CTX	SD	2	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	1.0	22.2%	11.0%	11.3%	3.2%	4.59	4.74	-0.0
2029	36	MLB CTX	SD	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.2%	11.6%	9.6%	3.6%	4.90	5.11	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		145	3	153	704	167	74	20	2%	1.1	23.7%	10.5%	13.2%	2.9%	5.75	4.01	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		189	4	200	917	218	96	26	2%	1.1	23.7%	10.5%	13.2%	2.9%	5.75	4.01	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		394	16	541	2375	520	255	46	4%	1.4	21.9%	10.7%	11.2%	2.0%	4.39	3.68	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		146	6	200	878	192	94	17	4%	1.4	21.9%	10.7%	11.2%	2.0%	4.39	3.68	+0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 11 IPFIP 4.42 → 4.55 (+0.13)K% 19.7% → 16.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.67%	—	×0.860	16.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.39%	—	×0.900	14.75%
HR / BF /BF	1.64%	÷0.981	×1.100	1.84%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 96).

Result: FIP 4.42 → 4.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 48 IPFIP 1.90 → 2.12 (+0.22)K% 29.5% → 25.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.47%	—	×0.860	25.34%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.14%	—	×0.900	9.13%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.078	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.90 → 2.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 26 IPFIP 5.54 → 5.74 (+0.20)K% 23.1% → 19.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.13%	—	×0.860	19.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	25.85%	—	×0.900	23.27%
HR / BF /BF	2.04%	÷0.896	×1.100	2.50%

Result: FIP 5.54 → 5.74, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 14 IPFIP 1.29 → 1.73 (+0.44)K% 36.7% → 32.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.73%	—	×0.880	32.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.20%	—	×1.050	10.71%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.096	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 119).

Result: FIP 1.29 → 1.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 52 IPFIP 2.42 → 2.90 (+0.49)K% 28.8% → 25.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.83%	—	×0.880	25.37%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.91%	—	×1.050	10.41%
HR / BF /BF	0.90%	÷0.866	×1.100	1.14%

Result: FIP 2.42 → 2.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 31 IPFIP 1.99 → 2.48 (+0.49)K% 32.0% → 28.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.00%	—	×0.880	28.16%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.60%	—	×1.050	5.88%
HR / BF /BF	1.60%	÷0.954	×1.100	1.84%

Result: FIP 1.99 → 2.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAReading Fightin Phils · 7 IPFIP 2.56 → 3.17 (+0.61)K% 32.3% → 26.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.26%	—	×0.810	26.13%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.23%	—	×1.100	3.55%
HR / BF /BF	3.23%	÷1.164	×1.200	3.33%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 133).

Result: FIP 2.56 → 3.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAReading Fightin Phils · 47 IPFIP 3.19 → 3.67 (+0.48)K% 23.2% → 18.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.23%	—	×0.810	18.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.60%	—	×1.100	10.56%
HR / BF /BF	1.52%	÷1.220	×1.200	1.49%

Result: FIP 3.19 → 3.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Austin Davis (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.40	23.2%	10.4%	2.8%	—	4.90	21.8%	10.6%	66	+0.50	—	—	—
Juan Pablo Perez L 2013 · 3.68 FIP	34	SU	3.68	25.2%	11.5%	2.3%	.250	3.68	26.5%	11.2%	51	-0.00	1.75	104	78
Ryan Buchter L 2021 · 5.24 FIP	34	SU	5.24	22.9%	13.2%	4.4%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	2.37	296	75
Pedro Borbón L 2002 · 4.57 FIP	34	SU	4.57	21.6%	7.3%	4.3%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	2.26	264	72
Brandon Mann L 2018 · 3.59 FIP	34	SU	3.59	17.8%	11.4%	1.0%	.232	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	190	69
Tim Byrdak L 2008 · 5.18 FIP	34	SU	5.18	19.8%	11.4%	4.2%	.229	4.30	22.4%	10.5%	138	-0.88	2.85	320	69
Heriberto Ruelas L 2016 · 3.75 FIP	34	SU	3.75	15.0%	8.9%	1.4%	.310	3.42	17.2%	10.5%	49	-0.33	2.95	117	69
Tom Martin L 2004 · 4.74 FIP	34	SU	4.74	14.7%	7.8%	3.4%	.278	3.96	14.7%	7.1%	86	-0.78	3.40	303	68
Alejandro Soto L 2019 · 4.03 FIP	33	SW	4.03	17.1%	6.9%	2.7%	.376	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	280	68
Clay Rapada L 2015 · 3.84 FIP	34	SU	3.84	14.3%	8.0%	1.7%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	120	67
Hisanori Takahashi L 2010 · 3.50 FIP	35	SW	3.50	22.1%	7.0%	2.5%	.292	3.81	21.1%	15.0%	118	+0.31	3.50	240	67
Hideki Okajima L 2010 · 4.27 FIP	34	SU	4.27	15.5%	7.0%	2.9%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	238	65
James Jones L 2023 · 4.67 FIP	34	SU	4.67	13.7%	11.5%	2.3%	.246	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	127	64
Dan Runzler L 2019 · 4.84 FIP	34	SU	4.84	16.0%	13.0%	2.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.84	187	63
Joey Eischen L 2004 · 3.63 FIP	34	SU	3.63	21.2%	7.5%	2.5%	.255	3.37	19.0%	9.1%	51	-0.26	2.13	294	62
Scott Rice L 2015 · 3.67 FIP	33	SU	3.67	22.9%	17.2%	0.6%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	104	61
Brady Feigl L 2024 · 4.12 FIP	33	SU	4.12	23.7%	4.7%	4.4%	.312	3.70	22.2%	14.9%	14	-0.42	2.69	212	58
Jamie Walker L 2005 · 3.81 FIP	34	SU	3.81	14.4%	4.8%	2.4%	.270	4.46	16.3%	12.2%	147	+0.65	3.48	442	58
Edwin Escobar L 2024 · 5.12 FIP	32	SU	5.12	19.6%	14.0%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	4.28	218	57
Luke Westphal L 2022 · 4.35 FIP	33	SW	4.35	24.2%	13.4%	2.9%	.302	5.19	15.7%	-0.7%	26	+0.84	2.97	294	56
John Bale L 2008 · 3.22 FIP	34	SW	3.22	12.7%	5.5%	0.9%	.315	4.31	17.6%	5.8%	28	+1.09	2.49	168	56

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	39	23.2%	11.1%	1.15	5.24
Will Cunnane ('04)	1.4	46	18.9%	10.4%	1.25	5.26
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Tom Dukes ('67-'72, -2 WAR*)	1.1	43	22.7%*	8.7%*	1.16*	5.37*
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Scott Service ('04)	2.1	46	22.2%	9.9%	1.23	5.04