Austin Davis — OGILVIE

Austin Davis P El Paso Chihuahuas

Age 33 LHP 6'4" / 235 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 106114vR 122

ERA4.62

FIP4.67

K%21.8%

BB%12.8%

K-BB%9.0%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL3535

CMD4545

K†5050

FB (38%)

CT (38%)

SI (38%)

SL-1.1 (24%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	22	A MLE	Lakewood BlueClaws	33	11	96	409	81	43	7	33%	2.9	14.7%	12.4%	2.2%	2.6%	3.76	4.83	—
2015	22	A RAW	Lakewood BlueClaws	33	11	96	409	81	43	7	33%	2.9	19.8%	10.5%	9.3%	1.7%	3.76	3.71	—
2016	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	1	32	132	39	8	0	5%	1.6	20.7%	6.9%	13.8%	0.0%	2.51	2.22	—
2016	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	20	1	32	132	39	8	0	5%	1.6	29.5%	6.1%	23.5%	0.0%	2.51	1.43	—
2017	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	69	286	75	22	4	0%	1.7	20.8%	8.5%	12.3%	1.4%	2.60	3.21	—
2017	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	69	286	75	22	4	0%	1.7	26.2%	7.7%	18.5%	1.4%	2.60	2.64	—
2018	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	60	0	73	307	88	19	7	0%	1.2	26.5%	6.6%	19.9%	2.2%	3.45	2.90	+1.4
2018	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	60	0	73	307	88	19	7	0%	1.2	28.7%	6.2%	22.5%	2.3%	3.45	2.72	+1.6
2019	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	0	73	320	88	35	8	0%	1.4	25.1%	11.3%	13.8%	2.5%	3.82	3.80	+0.6
2019	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	51	0	73	320	88	35	8	0%	1.4	27.5%	10.9%	16.6%	2.5%	3.82	3.55	+0.9
2020	27	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	9	0	7	32	5	2	1	0%	0.7	15.6%	6.2%	9.4%	3.1%	10.80	4.29	+0.0
2020	27	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	9	0	7	32	5	2	1	0%	0.7	15.6%	6.2%	9.4%	3.1%	10.80	4.45	+0.0
2021	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	42	0	43	177	52	16	4	0%	1.0	23.9%	8.5%	15.4%	3.5%	4.15	4.09	+0.2
2021	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	42	0	43	177	52	16	4	0%	1.0	29.4%	9.0%	20.3%	2.3%	4.15	3.01	+0.8
2022	29	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	52	3	56	264	64	32	5	6%	1.1	24.2%	12.1%	12.1%	1.9%	5.79	3.62	+0.6
2022	29	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	52	3	56	264	64	32	5	6%	1.1	24.2%	12.1%	12.1%	1.9%	5.79	3.69	+0.6
2023	30	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	20	0	26	147	34	38	3	0%	1.3	19.2%	23.3%	-4.1%	2.5%	11.22	5.80	—
2023	30	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	20	0	26	147	34	38	3	0%	1.3	19.2%	23.3%	-4.1%	2.5%	11.22	5.80	—
2023	30	AAA RAW	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	20	0	26	147	34	38	3	0%	1.3	23.1%	25.9%	-2.7%	2.0%	11.22	6.41	—
2024	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	0	55	240	67	26	0	0%	1.0	24.5%	9.1%	15.3%	0.0%	4.12	2.19	+1.6
2024	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	0	55	240	67	26	0	0%	1.0	24.5%	9.1%	15.3%	0.0%	4.12	2.19	+1.6
2024	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	54	0	55	240	67	26	0	0%	1.0	27.9%	10.8%	17.1%	0.0%	4.12	2.08	+1.6
2025	32	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	11	1	11	61	12	10	1	9%	1.0	16.3%	14.8%	1.6%	1.8%	11.91	4.60	—
2025	32	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	11	1	11	61	12	10	1	9%	1.0	16.3%	14.8%	1.6%	1.8%	11.91	4.60	—
2025	32	AAA RAW	El Paso Chihuahuas	11	1	11	61	12	10	1	9%	1.0	19.7%	16.4%	3.3%	1.6%	11.91	4.78	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			143	3	151	695	165	73	20	2%	1.1	23.7%	10.5%	13.2%	2.9%	5.77	4.08	+0.8
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	33	MLB	SD	5	0	5	21	5	3	1	0%	1.0	21.8%	12.8%	9.0%	2.6%	4.62	4.67	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	34	MLB MLE	SD	46	0	49	206	43	27	6	0%	1.1	20.9%	13.3%	7.6%	2.9%	4.83	4.97	-0.2
2028	35	MLB MLE	SD	42	0	44	185	37	25	6	0%	1.0	19.9%	13.8%	6.1%	3.2%	5.12	5.31	-0.4
2027	34	MLB CTX	SD	3	0	3	13	3	2	0	0%	1.0	20.9%	13.3%	7.6%	2.9%	4.83	4.97	-0.0
2028	35	MLB CTX	SD	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.9%	13.8%	6.1%	3.2%	5.12	5.31	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		146	3	154	708	168	75	20	2%	1.1	23.7%	10.6%	13.1%	2.9%	5.75	4.02	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		189	4	200	917	218	97	26	2%	1.1	23.7%	10.6%	13.1%	2.9%	5.75	4.02	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		394	16	541	2375	517	255	46	4%	1.4	21.8%	10.7%	11.0%	2.0%	4.39	3.69	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		146	6	200	878	191	94	17	4%	1.4	21.8%	10.7%	11.0%	2.0%	4.39	3.69	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Austin Davis (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.67	21.8%	12.8%	2.6%	—	5.13	20.4%	6.9%	92	+0.46	—	—	—
Brandon Mann L 2017 · 4.24 FIP	33	SU	4.24	19.8%	11.3%	2.5%	.286	3.59	17.8%	6.4%	52	-0.65	3.59	190	84
Phil Coke L 2015 · 3.89 FIP	33	SU	3.89	18.8%	9.1%	2.2%	.373	3.04	18.0%	11.3%	70	-0.85	3.04	101	78
Ryan O'Rourke L 2019 · 4.08 FIP	31	SU	4.08	22.1%	14.3%	1.9%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	145	78
Adam Loewen L 2017 · 4.22 FIP	33	SU	4.22	23.4%	17.4%	1.6%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	2.96	176	78
Dan Runzler L 2017 · 4.20 FIP	32	SU	4.20	17.5%	11.0%	2.1%	.325	4.84	16.0%	3.0%	27	+0.64	3.78	127	78
Zach Phillips L 2019 · 3.67 FIP	32	SU	3.67	19.1%	8.5%	2.0%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	2.33	202	75
Adam Liberatore L 2018 · 4.28 FIP	31	SU	4.28	18.6%	9.1%	2.9%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	2.38	124	74
Ryan Sherriff L 2023 · 3.85 FIP	33	SU	3.85	21.1%	11.0%	2.1%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	2.96	245	73
Brian Moran L 2022 · 4.20 FIP	33	SU	4.20	21.7%	7.0%	3.7%	.304	3.76	21.0%	14.0%	152	-0.44	1.80	421	70
Boone Logan L 2018 · 5.29 FIP	33	SU	5.29	24.1%	12.1%	4.9%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	2.58	113	69
Neal Cotts L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	35	SU	4.66	21.6%	7.4%	4.4%	.257	3.77	21.9%	14.5%	93	-0.89	3.21	156	68
Jeff Beliveau L 2018 · 3.86 FIP	31	SU	3.86	23.3%	14.4%	1.7%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	137	68
Marc Rzepczynski L 2019 · 5.36 FIP	33	SU	5.36	14.8%	13.2%	3.3%	.340	—	—	—	—	—	2.73	181	68
Craig Breslow L 2015 · 4.94 FIP	34	SU	4.94	16.4%	6.4%	4.4%	.279	4.42	16.2%	6.5%	94	-0.52	4.22	159	66
James Jones L 2022 · 3.58 FIP	33	SU	3.58	25.3%	20.7%	0.0%	.265	4.71	13.2%	1.7%	22	+1.13	3.58	127	66
Alejandro Soto L 2019 · 4.03 FIP	33	SW	4.03	17.1%	6.9%	2.7%	.376	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	280	66
Josh Edgin L 2018 · 3.63 FIP	31	SU	3.63	29.2%	9.2%	3.3%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	113	65
Roenis Elías L 2022 · 4.06 FIP	33	SW	4.06	17.4%	7.2%	2.8%	.316	6.66	17.4%	12.2%	21	+2.60	3.15	564	64
Luis Avilán L 2022 · 5.40 FIP	33	SU	5.40	22.2%	10.0%	5.3%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.62	256	64
Marlon Arias L 2017 · 3.73 FIP	32	SU	3.73	17.2%	7.7%	2.0%	.443	4.83	19.8%	8.6%	74	+1.10	3.73	154	64

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	49	20.9%	13.3%	1.10	4.84
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64