Austin Davis
P
El Paso Chihuahuas
+0.1
WAR
Age 33
LHP
6'4" / 235 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.39
FIP4.39
xFIP5.75
SIERA5.19
K%22.9%
BB%12.0%
K-BB%11.0%
IP18
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
STUF5555
CTRL3535
CMD4545
K†5555
FB Velo
p4494.1
Whiff%
p5726.4%
K%
p6124.2%
xwOBA vs
p320.333
FB (38%)
CT (38%)
SI (38%)
SL-1.1 (24%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | A | Lakewood BlueClaws | 33 | 11 | 96 | 409 | 81 | 43 | 7 | 14.7% | 12.4% | 2.6% | 3.76 | 4.86 | +0.4 |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ | Clearwater Threshers | 20 | 1 | 32 | 132 | 39 | 8 | 0 | 20.7% | 6.9% | 0.0% | 2.51 | 2.22 | +1.0 |
| 2017 | 24 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 42 | 0 | 69 | 286 | 75 | 22 | 4 | 20.8% | 8.5% | 1.4% | 2.60 | 3.20 | +1.4 |
| 2018 | 25 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 60 | 0 | 73 | 307 | 88 | 19 | 7 | 26.5% | 6.6% | 2.2% | 3.45 | 2.89 | +1.8 |
| 2019 | 26 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 51 | 0 | 73 | 320 | 88 | 35 | 8 | 25.1% | 11.3% | 2.4% | 3.82 | 3.70 | +1.1 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 9 | 0 | 7 | 32 | 5 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 10.80 | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 42 | 0 | 43 | 177 | 52 | 16 | 4 | 23.9% | 8.5% | 3.5% | 4.15 | 4.08 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 29 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 52 | 3 | 56 | 264 | 64 | 32 | 5 | 24.2% | 12.1% | 1.8% | 5.79 | 3.56 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 30 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 20 | 0 | 26 | 147 | 34 | 38 | 3 | 20.4% | 27.1% | 2.4% | 11.22 | 6.15 | -0.3 |
| 2024 | 31 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 54 | 0 | 55 | 240 | 67 | 26 | 0 | 25.9% | 10.7% | 0.0% | 4.12 | 2.26 | +1.7 |
| 2025 | 32 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 11 | 1 | 11 | 61 | 12 | 10 | 1 | 17.3% | 17.2% | 1.8% | 11.91 | 4.83 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | SD | 18 | — | 18 | 76 | 18 | 10 | 2 | 23.1% | 12.7% | 2.6% | 4.49 | 4.56 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | SD | 20 | — | 20 | 84 | 19 | 11 | 2 | 22.4% | 12.9% | 2.7% | 4.61 | 4.70 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 394 | 16 | 541 | 2375 | 523 | 266 | 45 | 22.0% | 11.2% | 1.9% | 4.39 | 3.71 | +9.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 146 | 6 | 200 | 878 | 193 | 98 | 17 | 22.0% | 11.2% | 1.9% | 4.39 | 3.71 | +3.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Austin Davis (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.56 | 23.1% | 12.7% | 2.6% | — | 4.70 | 22.4% | 9.5% | 20 | +0.14 | — | — | — |
| Phil Coke L 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.85 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 2.1% | .373 | 3.04 | 18.0% | 11.3% | 70 | -0.81 | 3.04 | 101 | 79 |
| Boone Logan L 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.22 | 24.1% | 12.1% | 4.8% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.64 | 113 | 78 |
| Ryan Sherriff L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.97 | 22.4% | 12.9% | 2.1% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.97 | 245 | 76 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2024 · 4.27 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.27 | 18.6% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 124 | 76 |
| Dan Runzler L 2025 · 4.14 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.14 | 17.5% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .325 | 4.83 | 16.0% | 3.0% | 27 | +0.69 | 3.78 | 127 | 75 |
| Zach Phillips L 2025 · 3.67 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.67 | 19.1% | 8.5% | 2.0% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.34 | 202 | 75 |
| Adam Loewen L 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.20 | 23.4% | 17.4% | 1.6% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 176 | 73 |
| Brandon Mann L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.27 | 19.8% | 11.3% | 2.6% | .286 | 3.59 | 17.8% | 6.4% | 52 | -0.68 | 3.59 | 190 | 73 |
| Ryan O'Rourke L 2024 · 4.08 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.08 | 22.1% | 14.3% | 1.9% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.09 | 145 | 72 |
| Anthony Gose L 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.98 | 27.0% | 13.1% | 2.7% | .279 | 5.80 | 21.3% | 7.0% | 37 | +1.82 | 3.98 | 173 | 71 |
| Jeff Beliveau L 2024 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.85 | 23.3% | 14.4% | 1.7% | .309 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.19 | 137 | 70 |
| Francisley Bueno L 2027 · 3.78 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.78 | 14.8% | 7.1% | 1.9% | .315 | 3.99 | 13.3% | 6.6% | 110 | +0.21 | 3.51 | 138 | 70 |
| Brian Moran L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.19 | 21.7% | 7.0% | 3.7% | .304 | 3.80 | 21.9% | 14.0% | 152 | -0.39 | 1.81 | 421 | 70 |
| Luke Westphal L 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.42 | 24.2% | 13.4% | 3.0% | .302 | 5.50 | 16.1% | -3.1% | 26 | +1.08 | 2.97 | 294 | 69 |
| James Jones L 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.58 | 25.3% | 20.7% | 0.0% | .265 | 4.89 | 14.0% | 0.6% | 22 | +1.31 | 3.58 | 127 | 69 |
| Josh Edgin L 2024 · 3.62 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.62 | 29.2% | 9.2% | 3.3% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 113 | 68 |
| Grant Dayton L 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.01 | 23.0% | 8.2% | 3.3% | .325 | 3.79 | 23.2% | 13.5% | 49 | -0.22 | 1.69 | 277 | 67 |
| Franklin Morales L 2024 · 4.03 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.03 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 2.2% | .267 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 101 | 66 |
| Luis Avilán L 2026 · 5.45 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.45 | 22.2% | 10.0% | 5.4% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.65 | 256 | 66 |
| Marc Rzepczynski L 2026 · 5.39 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.39 | 14.8% | 13.2% | 3.4% | .340 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.71 | 181 | 65 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.