Luis Gutierrez

P San Antonio Missions

Age 24 LHP 6'0" / 175 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.0 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP40OGV rank#360ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	MIX2 levels	17	14	76	4.62	3.28	20.1%	5.7%	—	K 14.6% · BB 6.8% · FIP 4.33
2025	22	MIX4 levels	25	21	125	3.31	3.15	21.8%	8.3%	—	K 16.3% · BB 10.0% · FIP 4.06
2026	23	MIX4 levels	13	13	36	4.25	3.24	28.4%	11.6%	—	K 22.0% · BB 9.5% · FIP 3.26
2027PROJ	24	MLBSD	1	1	1	4.56	4.56	18.2%	8.8%	0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBSD	7	7	40	4.50	4.46	19.3%	8.4%	0.5
2029PROJ67% MLB	26	MLBSD	10	10	57	4.44	4.42	19.8%	8.3%	0.7

Next 3 projected WAR 1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$1M2033Arb-2$2M2034Arb-3$1M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 7.5, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 83%

CompsJimmy Robbins (age 24) · Hayden Wynja (age 24) · Dallas Braden (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 104112vR 120

ERA4.56

FIP4.56

K%18.2%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%9.4%

Proj IP57

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$23M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2032	Arb-1	$1M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.8M
2033	Arb-2	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.1M
2034	Arb-3	$1M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$10M	+$6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres	11	2	15	76	18	15	0	18%	1.4	16.1%	24.7%	-8.6%	0.0%	6.60	4.87	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL Padres	11	2	15	76	18	15	0	18%	1.4	23.7%	19.7%	3.9%	0.0%	6.60	3.70	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	12	2	31	128	22	21	3	17%	2.6	11.7%	20.5%	-8.8%	3.0%	2.03	6.38	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	ACL Padres	12	2	31	128	22	21	3	17%	2.6	17.2%	16.4%	0.8%	2.3%	2.03	4.97	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	12	5	40	190	41	24	2	42%	3.3	14.7%	15.8%	-1.1%	1.6%	7.65	4.75	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	ACL Padres	12	5	40	190	41	24	2	42%	3.3	21.6%	12.6%	8.9%	1.1%	7.65	3.50	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	14	76	334	67	19	7	82%	4.5	14.6%	6.8%	7.8%	2.9%	4.62	4.33	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	14	76	334	67	19	7	82%	4.5	14.6%	6.8%	7.8%	2.9%	4.62	4.33	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	14	76	334	67	19	7	82%	4.5	20.1%	5.7%	14.4%	2.1%	4.62	3.28	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	25	21	125	527	115	44	8	84%	5.0	16.3%	10.0%	6.3%	1.9%	3.31	4.06	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	25	21	125	527	115	44	8	84%	5.0	16.3%	10.0%	6.3%	1.9%	3.31	4.06	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	4 levels	25	21	125	527	115	44	8	84%	5.0	21.8%	8.3%	13.5%	1.5%	3.31	3.15	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	13	13	36	155	44	18	3	100%	2.8	22.0%	9.5%	12.5%	1.5%	4.25	3.26	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	13	13	36	155	44	18	3	100%	2.8	22.0%	9.5%	12.5%	1.5%	4.25	3.26	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	4 levels	13	13	36	155	44	18	3	100%	2.8	28.4%	11.6%	16.8%	1.9%	4.25	3.24	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	SD	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	18.2%	8.8%	9.4%	2.7%	4.56	4.56	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	SD	15	15	90	381	74	32	10	100%	6.0	19.3%	8.4%	10.9%	2.7%	4.46	4.42	+1.0
2029	26	MLB MLE	SD	14	14	85	360	71	30	10	100%	6.1	19.8%	8.3%	11.5%	2.8%	4.40	4.38	+1.0
2030	27	MLB MLE	SD	14	14	82	344	69	29	10	100%	5.8	19.9%	8.4%	11.6%	2.8%	4.40	4.41	+0.9
2031	28	MLB MLE	SD	13	13	77	326	65	28	10	100%	5.9	19.9%	8.5%	11.4%	2.9%	4.45	4.49	+0.8
2032	29	MLB MLE	SD	12	12	72	302	59	26	9	100%	6.0	19.6%	8.7%	10.9%	3.1%	4.55	4.62	+0.6
2033	30	MLB MLE	SD	11	11	65	274	53	25	9	100%	5.9	19.3%	9.0%	10.2%	3.3%	4.70	4.79	+0.5
2034	31	MLB MLE	SD	10	10	58	244	46	23	9	100%	5.8	18.9%	9.4%	9.5%	3.5%	4.88	5.00	+0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	SD	7	7	40	169	33	14	5	100%	5.7	19.3%	8.4%	10.9%	2.8%	4.50	4.46	+0.5
2029	26	MLB CTX	SD	10	10	57	241	48	20	7	100%	5.7	19.8%	8.3%	11.5%	2.8%	4.44	4.42	+0.7
2030	27	MLB CTX	SD	10	10	63	266	53	22	8	100%	6.3	19.9%	8.4%	11.6%	2.9%	4.44	4.45	+0.7
2031	28	MLB CTX	SD	11	11	65	274	55	23	8	100%	5.9	19.9%	8.5%	11.4%	3.0%	4.49	4.53	+0.7
2032	29	MLB CTX	SD	10	10	63	266	52	23	8	100%	6.3	19.6%	8.7%	10.9%	3.2%	4.59	4.66	+0.6
2033	30	MLB CTX	SD	10	10	58	245	47	22	8	100%	5.8	19.3%	9.0%	10.2%	3.4%	4.74	4.83	+0.4
2034	31	MLB CTX	SD	9	9	53	224	42	21	8	100%	5.9	18.9%	9.4%	9.5%	3.6%	4.93	5.05	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		67	67	399	1684	329	146	52	100%	6.0	19.6%	8.7%	10.9%	3.1%	4.59	4.25	+5.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	165	73	26	100%	6.0	19.6%	8.7%	10.9%	3.1%	4.59	4.25	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		90	57	323	1410	224	165	29	63%	3.6	15.9%	11.7%	4.2%	2.1%	4.29	4.38	+5.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	35	200	873	138	102	18	63%	3.6	15.9%	11.7%	4.2%	2.1%	4.29	4.38	+2.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AASan Antonio Missions · 19 IPFIP 2.58 → 3.26 (+0.68)K% 27.2% → 22.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.16%	—	×0.810	22.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.64%	—	×1.100	9.51%
HR / BF /BF	1.23%	÷1.000	×1.200	1.48%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.58 → 3.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 7 IPFIP 4.76 → 4.99 (+0.23)K% 18.2% → 15.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.18%	—	×0.860	15.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.12%	—	×0.900	10.91%
HR / BF /BF	3.03%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.33%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.76 → 4.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 8 IPFIP 2.97 → 4.38 (+1.41)K% 39.4% → 30.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	39.39%	—	×0.770	30.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.12%	—	×1.150	13.94%
HR / BF /BF	3.03%	÷1.000	×1.250	3.79%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.97 → 4.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 65 IPFIP 3.10 → 3.90 (+0.80)K% 20.7% → 15.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.70%	—	×0.770	15.94%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.72%	—	×1.150	8.88%
HR / BF /BF	1.40%	÷0.941	×1.250	1.86%

Result: FIP 3.10 → 3.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ALake Elsinore Storm · 50 IPFIP 3.25 → 4.28 (+1.04)K% 22.7% → 16.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.66%	—	×0.740	16.77%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.85%	—	×1.180	11.63%
HR / BF /BF	1.48%	÷0.936	×1.300	2.05%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 87).

Result: FIP 3.25 → 4.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 5 IPFIP 3.30 → 3.96 (+0.65)K% 28.6% → 24.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.57%	—	×0.860	24.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×0.900	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	4.76%	÷0.981	×1.100	5.34%

Result: FIP 3.30 → 3.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ALake Elsinore Storm · 62 IPFIP 3.51 → 4.49 (+0.98)K% 18.4% → 13.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.41%	—	×0.740	13.62%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.14%	—	×1.180	7.24%
HR / BF /BF	2.17%	÷0.953	×1.300	2.96%

Result: FIP 3.51 → 4.49, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL Padres · 14 IPFIP 2.14 → 3.56 (+1.42)K% 28.1% → 19.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.07%	—	×0.680	19.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.51%	—	×1.250	4.39%
HR / BF /BF	1.75%	÷0.892	×1.400	2.75%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 78).

Result: FIP 2.14 → 3.56, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Gutierrez (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.7%	—	4.40	19.7%	11.3%	257	-0.16	—	—	—
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.82	18.0%	2.8%	99	+0.97	3.85	176	83
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	81
Dallas Braden L 2008 · 4.38 FIP	24	SP-	4.38	13.6%	7.6%	2.7%	.301	3.79	14.5%	8.5%	347	-0.59	3.64	491	81
Zach Thornton L 2024 · 3.90 FIP	22	SP-	3.90	13.8%	7.2%	1.9%	.335	3.96	20.5%	14.1%	220	+0.06	2.95	288	80
Carson Teel L 2019 · 3.43 FIP	23	SP-	3.43	17.2%	8.8%	1.2%	.292	4.86	16.9%	10.0%	144	+1.43	3.43	248	79
Billy Traber L 2003 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP-	4.17	17.5%	7.2%	3.0%	.321	4.17	12.4%	6.5%	43	+0.00	3.75	211	79
Logan Darnell L 2014 · 4.78 FIP	25	SP-	4.78	19.6%	7.1%	4.4%	.338	4.10	13.4%	6.1%	262	-0.68	3.16	454	79
Odalis Perez L 2001 · 3.77 FIP	24	SP-	3.77	17.0%	9.3%	1.7%	.336	3.91	17.5%	12.8%	604	+0.14	3.40	1,324	78
Matt Purke L 2015 · 3.82 FIP	25	SP-	3.82	12.5%	7.4%	1.5%	.340	3.78	20.6%	7.6%	169	-0.04	3.01	226	78
Matt Stalcup L 2015 · 3.62 FIP	25	SW	3.62	16.2%	9.7%	1.2%	.266	6.20	11.5%	-1.2%	56	+2.58	3.62	145	77
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	77
Garrett Schoenle L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	21.4%	10.8%	3.5%	.263	4.25	20.9%	9.7%	219	-0.35	2.32	362	77
Jordan Carr L 2022 · 3.86 FIP	25	SP-	3.86	12.5%	5.2%	2.1%	.304	4.01	14.9%	6.2%	162	+0.15	3.49	269	77
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	77
Mac Lardner L 2022 · 5.08 FIP	24	SW	5.08	17.4%	9.4%	4.1%	.318	3.66	17.5%	8.1%	62	-1.42	3.66	186	77
Tim Berry L 2015 · 4.46 FIP	24	SP-	4.46	12.0%	9.7%	2.1%	.346	5.03	14.7%	-0.6%	113	+0.57	4.04	196	76
JP Sears L 2019 · 3.85 FIP	23	SW	3.85	16.8%	8.9%	1.9%	.268	3.34	24.7%	17.8%	222	-0.51	2.18	962	76
Clayton Richard L 2008 · 3.89 FIP	24	SP-	3.89	13.5%	5.1%	2.3%	.329	4.01	16.4%	7.2%	454	+0.12	3.56	1,348	76
Eric DuBose L 2003 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP-	3.92	14.4%	7.5%	2.0%	.233	5.49	13.7%	0.4%	104	+1.57	3.92	178	76
Jake McSteen L 2021 · 5.05 FIP	25	SP-	5.05	16.8%	7.3%	4.5%	.322	5.18	19.2%	12.5%	172	+0.13	2.22	286	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	73	19.4%	8.7%	1.14	4.53
Paul Gibson ('88-'96, 2 WAR*)	2.8	80	19.0%*	9.5%*	1.18*	4.37*
Pete Mikkelsen ('64-'72, 1 WAR*)	3.3	73	20.1%*	9.3%*	1.12*	4.15*
Chris Stratton ('25)	3.1	69	21.0%	9.5%	1.02	4.64
Mike Trombley ('02)	4.0	80	19.4%	9.2%	1.29	4.48
Bob Humphreys ('62-'70, 1 WAR*)	2.8	81	19.5%*	9.5%*	1.24*	4.22*
Carlos Torres ('19)	2.5	72	20.7%	8.9%	1.12	4.09