Luis Gutierrez
P
San Antonio Missions
Age 23
LHP
6'0" / 175 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 1.2 · 2031
2026 ROS PROJECTION12 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108117vR 126
ERA4.74
FIP4.74
K%16.0%
BB%8.6%
K-BB%7.4%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 77 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL Padres | 11 | 2 | 15 | 76 | 18 | 15 | 0 | 18% | 1.4 | 16.1% | 24.7% | -8.6% | 0.0% | 6.60 | 4.87 | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL Padres | 11 | 2 | 15 | 76 | 18 | 15 | 0 | 18% | 1.4 | 23.7% | 19.7% | 3.9% | 0.0% | 6.60 | 3.70 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | ACL Padres | 12 | 2 | 31 | 128 | 22 | 21 | 3 | 17% | 2.6 | 11.7% | 20.5% | -8.8% | 2.8% | 2.03 | 6.26 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | ACL Padres | 12 | 2 | 31 | 128 | 22 | 21 | 3 | 17% | 2.6 | 17.2% | 16.4% | 0.8% | 2.3% | 2.03 | 4.97 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | ACL Padres | 12 | 5 | 40 | 190 | 41 | 24 | 2 | 42% | 3.3 | 14.7% | 15.8% | -1.1% | 1.8% | 7.65 | 4.84 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | ACL Padres | 12 | 5 | 40 | 190 | 41 | 24 | 2 | 42% | 3.3 | 21.6% | 12.6% | 8.9% | 1.1% | 7.65 | 3.50 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 14 | 76 | 334 | 67 | 19 | 7 | 82% | 4.5 | 14.6% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 3.1% | 4.62 | 4.44 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 14 | 76 | 334 | 67 | 19 | 7 | 82% | 4.5 | 20.1% | 5.7% | 14.4% | 2.1% | 4.62 | 3.28 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 4 levels | 25 | 21 | 125 | 527 | 115 | 44 | 8 | 84% | 5.0 | 16.3% | 10.0% | 6.3% | 2.1% | 3.31 | 4.14 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 4 levels | 25 | 21 | 125 | 527 | 115 | 44 | 8 | 84% | 5.0 | 21.8% | 8.3% | 13.5% | 1.5% | 3.31 | 3.15 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AA | San Antonio Missions | 3 | 3 | 12 | 46 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 4.0 | — | — | — | — | 3.75 | — | — |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | SD | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 44 | 24 | 8 | 100% | 5.4 | 16.0% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 2.8% | 4.74 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | SD | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 16.0% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 2.7% | 4.69 | 4.69 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | SD | — | — | 77 | 320 | 57 | 28 | 9 | — | — | 17.7% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 2.7% | 4.59 | 4.00 | +0.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | SD | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 16.0% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 2.7% | 4.69 | 4.31 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | SD | 14 | 14 | 82 | 348 | 62 | 28 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.8% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 2.8% | 4.59 | 4.53 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | SD | 14 | 14 | 84 | 353 | 67 | 28 | 10 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.9% | 7.9% | 10.9% | 2.8% | 4.47 | 4.41 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | SD | 14 | 14 | 84 | 353 | 69 | 28 | 10 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 11.6% | 2.8% | 4.40 | 4.36 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | SD | 13 | 13 | 82 | 347 | 68 | 28 | 10 | 100% | 6.3 | 19.5% | 8.0% | 11.6% | 2.8% | 4.39 | 4.39 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | SD | 13 | 13 | 80 | 337 | 72 | 25 | 10 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.4% | 7.3% | 14.1% | 2.9% | 4.28 | 4.21 | +0.7 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | SD | 6 | 6 | 36 | 152 | 27 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.8% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 2.7% | 4.54 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | SD | 9 | 9 | 56 | 236 | 45 | 19 | 6 | 100% | 6.2 | 18.9% | 7.9% | 10.9% | 2.7% | 4.42 | 4.36 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | SD | 11 | 11 | 66 | 279 | 54 | 22 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 11.6% | 2.7% | 4.35 | 4.31 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | SD | 11 | 11 | 70 | 296 | 58 | 23 | 8 | 100% | 6.4 | 19.5% | 8.0% | 11.6% | 2.7% | 4.34 | 4.34 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | SD | 12 | 12 | 71 | 300 | 64 | 22 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.4% | 7.3% | 14.1% | 2.8% | 4.22 | 4.15 | +0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 49 | 49 | 301 | 1271 | 249 | 99 | 35 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.6% | 7.8% | 11.8% | 2.7% | 4.35 | 3.93 | +5.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 165 | 66 | 23 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.6% | 7.8% | 11.8% | 2.7% | 4.35 | 3.93 | +3.4 | ||
| Career | — | 80 | 47 | 299 | 1301 | 203 | 154 | 29 | 59% | 3.7 | 15.6% | 11.9% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 4.27 | 4.53 | +3.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 54 | 31 | 200 | 870 | 135 | 103 | 20 | 59% | 3.7 | 15.6% | 11.9% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 4.27 | 4.53 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luis Gutierrez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.74 | 16.0% | 8.6% | 2.8% | — | 4.43 | 18.7% | 10.7% | 250 | -0.31 | — | — | — |
| Nate Peterson L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.40 | 18.4% | 11.4% | 2.6% | .284 | 4.47 | 17.1% | 5.8% | 213 | +0.07 | 3.67 | 288 | 89 |
| Luis Leroy Cruz L 2027 · 4.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.93 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 3.5% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.93 | 116 | 85 |
| Charlie McDaniel L 2027 · 3.78 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.78 | 17.3% | 7.1% | 2.3% | .305 | 4.26 | 16.9% | 10.6% | 73 | +0.48 | 3.78 | 174 | 85 |
| Bryan Radziewski L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.19 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 106 | 84 |
| Pat Peterson L 2025 · 4.36 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.36 | 13.5% | 10.6% | 1.9% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.36 | 108 | 83 |
| Ryan Magdic L 2028 · 3.64 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.64 | 18.3% | 6.7% | 2.3% | .314 | 3.18 | 21.5% | 16.7% | 54 | -0.46 | 3.18 | 150 | 83 |
| Sam Garcia L 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.74 | 18.5% | 12.7% | 2.9% | .284 | 3.62 | 25.5% | 9.2% | 24 | -1.12 | 3.62 | 125 | 83 |
| Patrick Wicklander L 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.80 | 16.9% | 8.8% | 3.7% | .327 | 5.17 | 15.1% | 0.1% | 45 | +0.37 | 4.80 | 254 | 83 |
| Mac Lardner L 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.63 | 18.9% | 8.5% | 3.7% | .332 | 4.35 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 119 | -0.28 | 3.54 | 186 | 83 |
| Ryan Hartman L 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.58 | 15.1% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .274 | 4.59 | 22.0% | 14.5% | 236 | +0.01 | 3.17 | 456 | 83 |
| Eric Wooten L 2028 · 4.16 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.16 | 14.6% | 7.5% | 2.5% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 116 | 83 |
| Robby Ahlstrom L 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.49 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 3.5% | .349 | 4.18 | 22.0% | 8.2% | 175 | -0.31 | 3.65 | 308 | 82 |
| Cole Kirschsieper L 2025 · 5.23 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.23 | 15.2% | 12.0% | 3.5% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.23 | 105 | 82 |
| Tim Berry L 2027 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.30 | 12.0% | 9.7% | 1.8% | .346 | 5.11 | 14.7% | -0.6% | 113 | +0.81 | 4.04 | 196 | 82 |
| John Michael Bertrand L 2028 · 3.72 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.72 | 14.8% | 8.1% | 1.5% | .294 | 4.27 | 14.3% | 5.0% | 345 | +0.55 | 3.72 | 463 | 82 |
| Chipper Smith L 2028 · 3.83 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.83 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 109 | 81 |
| Kenny Hernandez L 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.96 | 15.6% | 9.0% | 3.7% | .297 | 4.52 | 15.9% | 5.6% | 170 | -0.44 | 3.20 | 424 | 81 |
| Jordan Carr L 2028 · 3.86 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.86 | 12.5% | 5.2% | 2.1% | .304 | 3.87 | 14.9% | 6.2% | 162 | +0.01 | 3.39 | 261 | 81 |
| Matt Mikulski L 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.80 | 19.4% | 10.0% | 3.8% | .360 | 5.95 | 16.3% | -2.8% | 144 | +1.15 | 4.80 | 223 | 80 |
| Trey McGough L 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.76 | 15.8% | 6.1% | 2.2% | .278 | 3.40 | 22.2% | 13.3% | 99 | -0.36 | 2.87 | 227 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 82 | 18.8% | 8.0% | 1.09 | 4.48 |
| Jhoulys Chacín ('22) | 7 | 108 | 19.4% | 9.3% | 1.13 | 4.51 |
| Luis Perdomo ('22) | 5 | 90 | 16.6% | 7.8% | 1.08 | 5.09 |
| Michael Fulmer ('23) | 7 | 96 | 20.3% | 7.6% | 0.99 | 3.94 |
| Kendall Graveman ('23) | 7 | 90 | 17.7% | 7.9% | 1.07 | 3.89 |
| Clayton Richard ('19) | 5 | 102 | 15.4% | 7.9% | 1.04 | 4.79 |
| Chad Bettis ('19) | 5 | 106 | 16.7% | 7.8% | 1.17 | 4.90 |