Luis Gutierrez
P
San Antonio Missions
+1.1
WAR
Age 23
LHP
6'0" / 175 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.8 · 2029
ERA4.51
FIP4.51
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%19.5%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%10.2%
IP115
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.8peak
2029
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL Padres | 11 | 2 | 15 | 76 | 18 | 15 | 0 | 16.1% | 24.7% | 0.0% | 6.60 | 4.87 | +0.0 |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | ACL Padres | 12 | 2 | 31 | 128 | 22 | 21 | 3 | 11.7% | 20.5% | 2.6% | 2.03 | 6.12 | -0.4 |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | ACL Padres | 12 | 5 | 40 | 190 | 41 | 24 | 2 | 14.7% | 15.8% | 1.8% | 7.65 | 4.83 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | 17 | 14 | 76 | 334 | 67 | 19 | 7 | 14.6% | 6.8% | 2.9% | 4.62 | 4.32 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 22 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 25 | 21 | 125 | 527 | 115 | 44 | 8 | 16.3% | 10.0% | 1.9% | 3.31 | 4.06 | +1.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AA | San Antonio Missions | 2 | 2 | 9 | 31 | 11 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 1.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | SD | 21 | 21 | 115 | 486 | 95 | 45 | 13 | 19.5% | 9.3% | 2.7% | 4.51 | 4.51 | +1.0 |
| 2026 Total | 23 | MLB | SD | — | — | 124 | 517 | 106 | 47 | 14 | 20.4% | 9.1% | 2.8% | 4.26 | 4.18 | +1.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | SD | 24 | 24 | 134 | 565 | 116 | 50 | 15 | 20.5% | 8.8% | 2.7% | 4.41 | 4.36 | +1.4 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | SD | 27 | 27 | 148 | 623 | 131 | 53 | 17 | 21.1% | 8.5% | 2.7% | 4.33 | 4.28 | +1.7 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | SD | 28 | 28 | 155 | 653 | 139 | 55 | 18 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 2.7% | 4.29 | 4.26 | +1.8 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | SD | 29 | 29 | 157 | 665 | 142 | 56 | 18 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 2.8% | 4.27 | 4.27 | +1.8 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | SD | 29 | 29 | 157 | 663 | 141 | 56 | 19 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 2.8% | 4.28 | 4.29 | +1.8 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | SD | 28 | 28 | 154 | 648 | 137 | 56 | 18 | 21.2% | 8.6% | 2.8% | 4.31 | 4.34 | +1.7 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | SD | 27 | 27 | 149 | 629 | 132 | 55 | 18 | 21.0% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 4.36 | 4.40 | +1.5 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | SD | 26 | 26 | 144 | 607 | 126 | 54 | 18 | 20.7% | 8.8% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.47 | +1.4 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | SD | 25 | 25 | 138 | 583 | 119 | 52 | 18 | 20.5% | 9.0% | 3.0% | 4.51 | 4.56 | +1.2 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | SD | 24 | 24 | 132 | 556 | 112 | 51 | 17 | 20.2% | 9.2% | 3.1% | 4.60 | 4.66 | +1.0 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | SD | 23 | 23 | 125 | 529 | 105 | 49 | 17 | 19.8% | 9.3% | 3.2% | 4.70 | 4.77 | +0.8 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | SD | 21 | 21 | 118 | 498 | 97 | 48 | 17 | 19.4% | 9.6% | 3.3% | 4.81 | 4.89 | +0.5 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | SD | 20 | 20 | 110 | 466 | 88 | 46 | 16 | 19.0% | 9.8% | 3.5% | 4.94 | 5.02 | +0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 79 | 46 | 296 | 1286 | 201 | 152 | 28 | 15.6% | 11.8% | 2.1% | 4.20 | 4.46 | +2.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 53 | 31 | 200 | 869 | 136 | 103 | 19 | 15.6% | 11.8% | 2.1% | 4.20 | 4.46 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luis Gutierrez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.51 | 19.5% | 9.3% | 2.7% | — | 4.30 | 21.0% | 12.4% | 436 | -0.21 | — | — | — |
| Pete Hansen L 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.18 | 20.1% | 9.9% | 2.8% | .283 | 3.80 | 17.8% | 10.1% | 266 | -0.38 | 3.75 | 378 | 95 |
| Dalton Sawyer L 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.07 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.07 | 160 | 95 |
| Greg Farone L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.30 | 20.3% | 10.4% | 2.9% | .301 | 3.20 | 24.3% | 17.7% | 12 | -1.10 | 3.20 | 117 | 93 |
| David Parkinson L 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.69 | 19.6% | 8.8% | 2.1% | .303 | 5.45 | 16.0% | 8.2% | 78 | +1.76 | 3.06 | 517 | 92 |
| Jackson Kent L 2025 · 4.40 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.40 | 20.2% | 8.5% | 3.5% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.40 | 123 | 92 |
| Luke Heimlich L 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.21 | 18.2% | 7.6% | 3.1% | .350 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 118 | 91 |
| Charlie McDaniel L 2027 · 3.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.80 | 17.3% | 7.1% | 2.3% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 100 | 90 |
| Aaron Leasher L 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.5% | 7.9% | 3.2% | .301 | 4.17 | 19.8% | 9.5% | 152 | -0.21 | 4.10 | 477 | 90 |
| Brian Holmes L 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.0% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .333 | 4.77 | 17.3% | 8.0% | 104 | +0.46 | 3.58 | 205 | 90 |
| Connor Wietgrefe L 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.21 | 16.7% | 6.7% | 3.0% | .258 | 5.01 | 11.4% | -2.1% | 13 | +0.80 | 4.21 | 121 | 89 |
| D.J. Snelten L 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.48 | 18.5% | 7.8% | 1.7% | .349 | 3.35 | 17.3% | 8.4% | 217 | -0.13 | 3.25 | 373 | 89 |
| Jonathan Santucci L 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.63 | 22.6% | 9.6% | 2.2% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 118 | 89 |
| Lucas Gordon L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.40 | 20.6% | 10.9% | 3.0% | .269 | 8.07 | 11.6% | 1.8% | 13 | +3.67 | 4.40 | 233 | 89 |
| Will Dion L 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.39 | 22.3% | 8.4% | 2.0% | .289 | 4.52 | 19.6% | 9.6% | 216 | +1.13 | 3.39 | 448 | 88 |
| Tyler Thomas L 2025 · 3.37 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.37 | 19.3% | 7.3% | 1.8% | .255 | 3.52 | 24.2% | 14.6% | 54 | +0.15 | 2.75 | 279 | 88 |
| Michael Velasquez L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.91 | 16.7% | 6.6% | 2.5% | .350 | 5.03 | 10.3% | 2.8% | 88 | +1.12 | 3.91 | 201 | 88 |
| Hunter Owen L 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.14 | 21.0% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.14 | 197 | 88 |
| A.J. Block L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.73 | 22.8% | 10.0% | 2.4% | .262 | 5.75 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 51 | +2.02 | 3.65 | 203 | 88 |
| Hayden Wynja L 2027 · 4.73 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.73 | 20.5% | 10.5% | 3.7% | .315 | 4.79 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 56 | +0.06 | 4.73 | 154 | 88 |
| Jerry Keel L 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.58 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 2.1% | .302 | 5.06 | 14.2% | 6.4% | 300 | +1.48 | 3.58 | 637 | 88 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.8 | $16M | +$15M |
| 2030 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +1.8 | $16M | +$15M |
| 2031 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +1.8 | $17M | +$16M |
| 2032 | Arb-1 | $3M | +1.7 | $16M | +$13M |
| 2033 | Arb-2 | $5M | +1.5 | $15M | +$10M |
| 2034 | Arb-3 | $7M | +1.3 | $13M | +$6M |
| Totals | $18M | $93M | +$75M | ||