Luis Gutierrez — OGILVIE

Luis Gutierrez P San Antonio Missions

Age 23 LHP 6'0" / 175 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.4 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION33 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 107115vR 123

ERA4.74

FIP4.74

K%16.0%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%7.2%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 40 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$4M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4050

CTRL—55

CMD5055

K†3045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.0	$0.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Arb-1	$3M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$5M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$6M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$8M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres	11	2	15	76	18	15	0	18%	1.4	16.1%	24.7%	-8.6%	0.0%	6.60	4.87	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL Padres	11	2	15	76	18	15	0	18%	1.4	23.7%	19.7%	3.9%	0.0%	6.60	3.70	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	12	2	31	128	22	21	3	17%	2.6	11.7%	20.5%	-8.8%	3.0%	2.03	6.38	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	ACL Padres	12	2	31	128	22	21	3	17%	2.6	17.2%	16.4%	0.8%	2.3%	2.03	4.97	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	12	5	40	190	41	24	2	42%	3.3	14.7%	15.8%	-1.1%	1.6%	7.65	4.75	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	12	5	40	190	41	24	2	42%	3.3	14.7%	15.8%	-1.1%	1.6%	7.65	4.75	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	ACL Padres	12	5	40	190	41	24	2	42%	3.3	21.6%	12.6%	8.9%	1.1%	7.65	3.50	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	14	76	334	67	19	7	82%	4.5	14.6%	6.8%	7.8%	2.9%	4.62	4.33	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	14	76	334	67	19	7	82%	4.5	14.6%	6.8%	7.8%	2.9%	4.62	4.33	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	14	76	334	67	19	7	82%	4.5	20.1%	5.7%	14.4%	2.1%	4.62	3.28	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	25	21	125	527	115	44	8	84%	5.0	16.3%	10.0%	6.3%	1.9%	3.31	4.06	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	25	21	125	527	115	44	8	84%	5.0	16.3%	10.0%	6.3%	1.9%	3.31	4.06	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	4 levels	25	21	125	527	115	44	8	84%	5.0	21.8%	8.3%	13.5%	1.5%	3.31	3.15	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	12	12	33	138	42	16	2	100%	2.8	22.0%	9.5%	12.5%	1.5%	3.27	3.26	—
YTD	23	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	12	12	33	138	42	16	2	100%	2.8	22.0%	9.5%	12.5%	1.5%	3.27	3.26	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	ROK RAW	SD	2	2	2	8	3	3	0	100%	0.8	37.5%	37.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	4.68	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	SD	3	3	8	33	13	4	1	100%	2.7	39.4%	12.1%	27.3%	3.0%	2.25	2.97	—
2026	23	AA RAW	SD	6	6	19	81	22	7	1	100%	3.2	27.2%	8.6%	18.5%	1.2%	4.19	2.58	—
2026	23	AAA RAW	SD	1	1	4	16	4	2	0	100%	4.0	25.0%	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	2.25	2.57	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	SD	1	1	7	31	5	3	1	100%	7.3	16.0%	8.8%	7.2%	2.7%	4.74	4.74	+0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	SD	—	—	40	169	47	19	3	—	—	27.8%	11.1%	16.7%	1.7%	3.54	3.53	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	SD	21	21	115	487	87	40	13	100%	5.5	17.8%	8.3%	9.5%	2.7%	4.59	4.52	+0.5
2028	25	MLB MLE	SD	20	20	117	493	93	40	13	100%	5.8	18.9%	8.0%	10.9%	2.7%	4.47	4.40	+0.7
2029	26	MLB MLE	SD	19	19	117	493	96	39	14	100%	6.1	19.4%	8.0%	11.5%	2.7%	4.39	4.35	+0.8
2030	27	MLB MLE	SD	19	19	115	485	95	39	14	100%	6.0	19.5%	8.0%	11.5%	2.8%	4.39	4.39	+0.7
2031	28	MLB MLE	SD	19	19	112	471	91	39	14	100%	5.9	19.4%	8.2%	11.2%	2.9%	4.44	4.47	+0.6
2032	29	MLB MLE	SD	18	18	106	450	86	38	14	100%	5.9	19.1%	8.4%	10.7%	3.0%	4.54	4.60	+0.4
2033	30	MLB MLE	SD	17	17	100	423	79	37	14	100%	5.9	18.8%	8.7%	10.1%	3.2%	4.68	4.78	+0.1
2034	31	MLB MLE	SD	16	16	93	394	72	36	14	100%	5.8	18.4%	9.0%	9.3%	3.5%	4.86	4.98	-0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	SD	9	9	51	215	38	18	6	100%	5.7	17.8%	8.3%	9.5%	2.8%	4.63	4.56	+0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	SD	13	13	78	329	62	26	9	100%	6.0	18.9%	8.0%	10.9%	2.8%	4.51	4.44	+0.5
2029	26	MLB CTX	SD	16	16	93	393	76	31	11	100%	5.8	19.4%	8.0%	11.5%	2.8%	4.43	4.39	+0.6
2030	27	MLB CTX	SD	16	16	98	414	81	33	12	100%	6.1	19.5%	8.0%	11.5%	2.9%	4.43	4.43	+0.6
2031	28	MLB CTX	SD	16	16	99	418	81	34	12	100%	6.2	19.4%	8.2%	11.2%	3.0%	4.48	4.51	+0.5
2032	29	MLB CTX	SD	16	16	97	410	78	34	13	100%	6.1	19.1%	8.4%	10.7%	3.1%	4.58	4.64	+0.3
2033	30	MLB CTX	SD	15	15	92	388	73	34	13	100%	6.1	18.8%	8.7%	10.1%	3.3%	4.72	4.82	+0.1
2034	31	MLB CTX	SD	14	14	87	367	68	33	13	100%	6.2	18.4%	9.0%	9.3%	3.6%	4.91	5.03	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		117	117	695	2935	558	244	89	100%	5.9	19.0%	8.3%	10.7%	3.0%	4.58	4.22	+5.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	161	70	26	100%	6.0	19.0%	8.3%	10.7%	3.0%	4.58	4.22	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		89	56	320	1393	220	163	29	63%	3.6	15.8%	11.7%	4.0%	2.1%	4.19	4.40	+3.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	35	200	871	137	102	18	63%	3.6	15.8%	11.7%	4.0%	2.1%	4.19	4.40	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Gutierrez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.74	16.0%	8.8%	2.7%	—	4.42	18.7%	10.6%	349	-0.32	—	—	—
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	88
Mac Lardner L 2021 · 4.75 FIP	23	SP-	4.75	18.9%	8.5%	4.0%	.332	4.34	17.5%	8.1%	119	-0.41	3.66	186	84
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	84
Tim Berry L 2015 · 4.46 FIP	24	SP-	4.46	12.0%	9.7%	2.1%	.346	5.03	14.7%	-0.6%	113	+0.57	4.04	196	83
Bryan Radziewski L 2015 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.5%	2.0%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	106	82
Matt Mikulski L 2022 · 4.92 FIP	23	SP-	4.92	19.4%	10.0%	4.0%	.360	6.03	16.3%	-2.8%	144	+1.11	4.92	223	82
Robby Ahlstrom L 2022 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	20.1%	9.0%	3.8%	.349	4.06	21.6%	8.6%	175	-0.56	3.74	330	82
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	81
Patrick Wicklander L 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP-	4.95	16.9%	8.8%	3.9%	.327	5.11	15.1%	0.1%	45	+0.16	4.88	254	81
Pat Peterson L 2015 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP-	4.17	13.5%	10.6%	1.6%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	4.17	108	81
Evan Grills L 2015 · 5.42 FIP	23	SP-	5.42	13.0%	8.6%	4.2%	.335	4.02	16.1%	11.6%	221	-1.40	3.41	309	81
Ryan Hartman L 2017 · 4.65 FIP	23	SP-	4.65	15.1%	8.5%	3.2%	.274	4.53	22.0%	14.5%	236	-0.12	3.24	456	81
Demetrio Gutierrez L 2015 · 5.33 FIP	25	SP-	5.33	12.3%	8.5%	4.0%	.327	4.78	10.7%	3.9%	181	-0.55	3.68	322	81
John Michael Bertrand L 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	14.8%	8.1%	1.5%	.294	4.33	14.1%	5.2%	345	+0.62	3.71	463	80
Cole Kirschsieper L 2023 · 5.07 FIP	22	SP-	5.07	15.2%	12.0%	3.2%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	5.07	105	80
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.60	19.5%	5.2%	212	+0.08	3.90	277	80
Thomas Ireland L 2023 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.7%	8.7%	3.4%	.286	3.80	17.3%	7.9%	201	-0.84	2.95	245	80
Max Fried L 2017 · 4.44 FIP	23	SP-	4.44	18.0%	11.1%	2.6%	.318	3.35	24.2%	15.8%	322	-1.09	2.56	1,435	80
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	79
Matt Purke L 2015 · 3.82 FIP	25	SP-	3.82	12.5%	7.4%	1.5%	.340	3.78	20.6%	7.6%	169	-0.04	3.01	226	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.8	106	18.7%	8.3%	1.13	4.55
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Alex Cobb ('23)	4.0	114	19.5%	6.6%	1.03	4.14
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Marco Gonzales ('24)	4.4	111	17.5%	6.1%	1.26	4.13
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01