JP Sears
P
El Paso Chihuahuas
Age 30
LHP
5'11" / 180 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION83 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110119vR 129
ERA4.59
FIP4.85
K%19.0%
BB%7.2%
K-BB%11.8%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 148 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p2993.0
Whiff%
p2922.4%
K%
p3419.8%
xwOBA vs
p150.354
SI (6%)
CU (4%)
SL-1.4 (37%)
CH-5.5 (15%)
FB-12.6 (48%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 21 | A | Clinton LumberKings | 10 | 0 | 17 | 67 | 29 | 8 | 0 | 0% | 1.7 | 32.0% | 14.1% | 17.9% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2.18 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A | Clinton LumberKings | 10 | 0 | 17 | 67 | 29 | 8 | 0 | 0% | 1.7 | 43.3% | 11.9% | 31.3% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.10 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 11 | 10 | 54 | 215 | 54 | 11 | 7 | 91% | 4.9 | 18.6% | 6.0% | 12.5% | 6.8% | 2.67 | 6.03 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 11 | 10 | 54 | 215 | 54 | 11 | 7 | 91% | 4.9 | 25.1% | 5.1% | 20.0% | 3.3% | 2.67 | 3.40 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ | Tampa Tarpons | 13 | 6 | 49 | 206 | 45 | 16 | 3 | 46% | 3.7 | 16.8% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 2.0% | 4.07 | 3.90 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ | Tampa Tarpons | 13 | 6 | 49 | 206 | 45 | 16 | 3 | 46% | 3.7 | 21.8% | 7.8% | 14.1% | 1.5% | 4.07 | 3.04 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 18 | 104 | 415 | 136 | 29 | 11 | 72% | 4.2 | 27.6% | 7.6% | 20.1% | 2.6% | 3.46 | 3.14 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 18 | 104 | 415 | 136 | 29 | 11 | 72% | 4.2 | 32.8% | 7.0% | 25.8% | 2.7% | 3.46 | 2.70 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 21 | 118 | 468 | 111 | 29 | 11 | 72% | 4.1 | 22.2% | 6.3% | 15.9% | 2.4% | 2.98 | 3.34 | +2.8 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 21 | 118 | 468 | 111 | 29 | 11 | 72% | 4.1 | 23.7% | 6.2% | 17.5% | 2.4% | 2.98 | 3.17 | +3.1 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 32 | 32 | 172 | 735 | 161 | 51 | 34 | 100% | 5.4 | 21.9% | 6.9% | 15.0% | 4.8% | 4.54 | 4.79 | +1.2 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 32 | 32 | 172 | 735 | 161 | 51 | 34 | 100% | 5.4 | 21.9% | 6.9% | 15.0% | 4.6% | 4.54 | 4.68 | +1.4 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 32 | 32 | 181 | 758 | 137 | 49 | 28 | 100% | 5.6 | 18.1% | 6.5% | 11.6% | 3.9% | 4.38 | 4.52 | +1.9 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 32 | 32 | 181 | 758 | 137 | 49 | 28 | 100% | 5.6 | 18.1% | 6.5% | 11.6% | 3.7% | 4.38 | 4.41 | +2.1 |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 31 | 149 | 642 | 133 | 42 | 33 | 100% | 4.8 | 20.4% | 6.6% | 13.8% | 5.6% | 4.88 | 5.26 | +0.2 |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 31 | 149 | 642 | 133 | 42 | 33 | 100% | 4.8 | 20.7% | 6.5% | 14.2% | 5.1% | 4.88 | 5.04 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 18 | 18 | 83 | 390 | 79 | 36 | 14 | 100% | 4.6 | 18.3% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 3.8% | 7.24 | 4.88 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | SD | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 52 | 20 | 12 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.0% | 7.2% | 11.8% | 4.5% | 4.59 | 4.85 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | SD | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 52 | 20 | 12 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.0% | 7.2% | 11.8% | 4.5% | 4.59 | 4.85 | -0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 30 | MLB | SD | — | — | 148 | 664 | 131 | 56 | 26 | — | — | 19.7% | 8.4% | 11.4% | 3.9% | 6.08 | 4.86 | +0.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 30 | MLB | SD | — | — | 84 | 357 | 131 | 56 | 26 | — | — | 36.7% | 15.6% | 21.1% | 7.3% | 10.66 | 6.00 | -0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | SD | 25 | 25 | 147 | 621 | 116 | 46 | 30 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.6% | 7.5% | 11.1% | 4.8% | 5.29 | 5.49 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | SD | 23 | 23 | 136 | 575 | 102 | 45 | 29 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.8% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 5.0% | 5.56 | 5.74 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | SD | 21 | 21 | 125 | 527 | 89 | 44 | 28 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.0% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 5.3% | 5.84 | 6.02 | -0.9 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | SD | 24 | 24 | 147 | 621 | 115 | 46 | 30 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.6% | 7.5% | 11.1% | 4.8% | 5.29 | 5.49 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | SD | 23 | 23 | 136 | 574 | 102 | 45 | 29 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.8% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 5.0% | 5.56 | 5.74 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | SD | 21 | 21 | 125 | 528 | 89 | 44 | 28 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.0% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 5.3% | 5.84 | 6.02 | -0.9 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 194 | 188 | 1051 | 4447 | 842 | 321 | 203 | 97% | 5.4 | 18.9% | 7.2% | 11.7% | 4.6% | 4.94 | 4.92 | +5.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 37 | 36 | 200 | 846 | 160 | 61 | 39 | 97% | 5.4 | 18.9% | 7.2% | 11.7% | 4.6% | 4.94 | 4.92 | +1.1 | ||
| Career | — | 201 | 168 | 927 | 3896 | 815 | 281 | 156 | 84% | 4.6 | 20.9% | 7.2% | 13.7% | 4.0% | 4.27 | 4.45 | +10.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 36 | 200 | 841 | 176 | 61 | 34 | 84% | 4.6 | 20.9% | 7.2% | 13.7% | 4.0% | 4.27 | 4.45 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| JP Sears (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.19 | 19.2% | 6.6% | 4.6% | — | 5.74 | 17.8% | 10.0% | 408 | +0.55 | — | — | — |
| Arturo Lopez L 2028 · 4.71 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.71 | 13.7% | 6.2% | 3.6% | .301 | 4.61 | 10.9% | 4.2% | 217 | -0.10 | 4.24 | 445 | 43 |
| Tomas Solis L 2028 · 4.35 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.35 | 15.0% | 6.2% | 3.1% | .264 | 5.50 | 12.0% | 3.7% | 159 | +1.15 | 4.35 | 327 | 43 |
| Jorge Castillo L 2029 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.40 | 16.8% | 9.2% | 2.8% | .292 | 4.68 | 12.4% | 7.2% | 186 | +0.28 | 4.40 | 408 | 42 |
| Alejandro Soto L 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.28 | 14.9% | 6.4% | 2.9% | .367 | 4.16 | 15.9% | 10.3% | 97 | -0.12 | 3.97 | 280 | 41 |
| Jaime García L 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.25 | 20.2% | 7.3% | 3.5% | .299 | 4.23 | 19.4% | 9.7% | 239 | -0.02 | 2.89 | 540 | 40 |
| Everett Teaford L 2027 · 4.36 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.36 | 13.9% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.36 | 103 | 40 |
| Danny Duffy L 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.62 | 20.7% | 8.3% | 4.0% | .279 | 4.01 | 24.7% | 16.1% | 117 | -0.61 | 3.29 | 915 | 40 |
| Brad Mills L 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.98 | 14.5% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .294 | 6.49 | 14.4% | 2.6% | 44 | +1.51 | 4.98 | 182 | 40 |
| Hyun Jin Ryu L 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.63 | 21.4% | 7.8% | 4.3% | .294 | 2.93 | 24.5% | 20.5% | 332 | -1.70 | 2.87 | 725 | 40 |
| John Danks L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.30 | 16.1% | 7.2% | 3.0% | .303 | 5.79 | 16.0% | 5.0% | 22 | +1.49 | 4.30 | 200 | 39 |
| Jonathon Niese L 2025 · 5.29 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.29 | 16.1% | 8.1% | 4.6% | .308 | 5.56 | 10.9% | 2.7% | 70 | +0.27 | 4.17 | 368 | 39 |
| Brandon Mann L 2028 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.73 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 4.1% | .320 | 4.14 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 128 | -0.59 | 3.60 | 190 | 39 |
| Mike Minor L 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.18 | 20.6% | 5.8% | 3.8% | .253 | 4.18 | 23.2% | 16.0% | 424 | +0.00 | 2.42 | 807 | 39 |
| Alejandro Astorga L 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.17 | 14.4% | 8.2% | 2.3% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.78 | 311 | 39 |
| Brett Oberholtzer L 2025 · 4.82 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.82 | 13.6% | 7.3% | 3.5% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 442 | 39 |
| Christian Friedrich L 2025 · 4.08 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.08 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 2.5% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 188 | 38 |
| Yusei Kikuchi L 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.55 | 24.5% | 9.3% | 4.3% | .285 | 3.94 | 27.0% | 19.2% | 444 | -0.61 | 3.25 | 1,019 | 38 |
| Paul Oseguera L 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.06 | 17.6% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .297 | 5.58 | 5.6% | -6.9% | 28 | +1.52 | 4.06 | 162 | 38 |
| Ross Detwiler L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.83 | 14.3% | 7.8% | 3.6% | .297 | 5.54 | 14.8% | 6.8% | 220 | +0.71 | 3.47 | 512 | 37 |
| Nico Tellache L 2024 · 4.65 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.65 | 13.4% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 160 | 37 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 141 | 18.2% | 7.5% | 1.90 | 5.38 |
| Dan Straily ('19) | 4 | 136 | 20.0% | 8.9% | 1.72 | 4.54 |
| Jered Weaver ('17) | 3 | 126 | 13.3% | 5.9% | 1.83 | 5.15 |
| James Shields ('18) | 4 | 176 | 19.8% | 9.6% | 1.71 | 4.81 |
| Ricky Nolasco ('17) | 3 | 139 | 18.1% | 6.5% | 1.38 | 4.85 |
| Aníbal Sánchez ('22) | 7 | 120 | 20.4% | 7.8% | 1.56 | 4.80 |
| Dylan Bundy ('22) | 7 | 130 | 22.0% | 7.3% | 1.61 | 4.75 |