JP Sears — OGILVIE

JP Sears P El Paso Chihuahuas

Age 30 LHP 5'11" / 180 lbs AAA peak 0.4 · 2026 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION114 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108116vR 124

ERA4.57

FIP4.80

K%18.7%

BB%7.0%

K-BB%11.7%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 127 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2993.0

Whiff%

p1720.7%

p1817.5%

xwOBA vs

p220.345

SI (6%)

CU (4%)

SL-1.4 (37%)

CH-5.5 (15%)

FB-12.6 (48%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	21	A MLE	Clinton LumberKings	10	0	17	67	29	8	0	0%	1.7	32.0%	14.1%	17.9%	0.0%	0.00	2.18	—
2017	21	A RAW	Clinton LumberKings	10	0	17	67	29	8	0	0%	1.7	43.3%	11.9%	31.3%	0.0%	0.00	1.10	—
2018	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	11	10	54	215	54	11	7	91%	4.9	18.6%	6.0%	12.5%	5.2%	2.67	5.16	—
2018	22	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	11	10	54	215	54	11	7	91%	4.9	25.1%	5.1%	20.0%	3.3%	2.67	3.40	—
2019	23	A+ MLE	Tampa Tarpons	13	6	49	206	45	16	3	46%	3.7	16.8%	8.9%	7.9%	1.9%	4.07	3.85	—
2019	23	A+ RAW	Tampa Tarpons	13	6	49	206	45	16	3	46%	3.7	21.8%	7.8%	14.1%	1.5%	4.07	3.04	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	18	104	415	136	29	11	72%	4.2	27.6%	7.6%	20.1%	2.8%	3.46	3.26	—
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	18	104	415	136	29	11	72%	4.2	32.8%	7.0%	25.8%	2.7%	3.46	2.70	—
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	21	118	468	111	29	11	72%	4.1	22.2%	6.3%	15.9%	2.5%	2.98	3.41	+2.1
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	21	118	468	111	29	11	72%	4.1	23.7%	6.2%	17.5%	2.4%	2.98	3.17	+2.5
2023	27	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	32	32	172	735	161	51	34	100%	5.4	21.9%	6.9%	15.0%	5.1%	4.54	4.92	-0.0
2023	27	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	32	32	172	735	161	51	34	100%	5.4	21.9%	6.9%	15.0%	5.1%	4.54	4.92	-0.0
2023	27	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	32	32	172	735	161	51	34	100%	5.4	21.9%	6.9%	15.0%	4.6%	4.54	4.68	+0.4
2024	28	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	32	32	181	758	137	49	28	100%	5.6	18.1%	6.5%	11.6%	4.1%	4.38	4.62	+0.6
2024	28	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	32	32	181	758	137	49	28	100%	5.6	18.1%	6.5%	11.6%	4.1%	4.38	4.62	+0.6
2024	28	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	32	32	181	758	137	49	28	100%	5.6	18.1%	6.5%	11.6%	3.7%	4.38	4.41	+1.0
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	149	642	133	42	33	100%	4.8	20.3%	6.4%	13.8%	5.1%	4.88	4.99	-0.2
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	149	642	133	42	33	100%	4.8	20.3%	6.4%	13.8%	5.1%	4.88	4.99	-0.2
2025	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	31	149	642	133	42	33	100%	4.8	20.7%	6.5%	14.2%	5.1%	4.88	5.04	-0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			116	108	591	2507	491	169	106	93%	5.1	19.6%	6.7%	12.8%	4.2%	4.54	4.63	+1.9
▸ 2026 season
YTD	30	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	29	24	114	526	109	47	17	83%	3.9	18.0%	8.3%	9.8%	3.4%	6.93	4.50	—
YTD	30	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	29	24	114	526	109	47	17	83%	3.9	18.0%	8.3%	9.8%	3.4%	6.93	4.50	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	30	AAA RAW	SD	21	18	82	383	84	36	11	86%	3.9	21.9%	9.4%	12.5%	2.9%	7.82	4.01	—
2026	30	MLB RAW	SD	8	6	33	143	25	11	6	75%	4.1	17.5%	7.7%	9.8%	4.2%	4.68	4.90	-0.0
SO FAR	30	MLB RAW	SD	8	6	33	143	25	11	6	75%	4.1	17.5%	7.7%	9.8%	4.2%	4.68	4.90	-0.0
ROS	30	MLB MLE	SD	2	2	13	55	10	4	2	100%	6.6	18.7%	7.0%	11.7%	4.3%	4.57	4.80	+0.0
ROS	30	MLB CTX	SD	2	2	13	55	10	4	2	100%	6.5	18.7%	7.0%	11.7%	4.3%	4.57	4.80	+0.0
2026 TOT	30	MLB MLE	SD	—	—	127	581	119	51	19	—	—	20.5%	8.8%	11.8%	3.3%	6.68	4.53	+0.5
FULL	30	MLB A+C	SD	—	—	46	193	119	51	19	—	—	61.7%	26.3%	35.4%	10.0%	18.61	6.73	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	SD	25	25	147	621	111	45	29	100%	5.9	17.9%	7.2%	10.7%	4.6%	5.22	5.40	-0.8
2028	32	MLB MLE	SD	23	23	136	575	98	44	28	100%	5.9	17.1%	7.6%	9.5%	4.8%	5.48	5.66	-1.1
2027	31	MLB CTX	SD	24	24	147	621	111	45	28	100%	6.1	17.9%	7.2%	10.7%	4.6%	5.22	5.40	-0.8
2028	32	MLB CTX	SD	23	23	136	574	98	44	28	100%	5.9	17.1%	7.6%	9.5%	4.8%	5.48	5.66	-1.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		166	158	888	3758	711	262	165	95%	5.3	18.9%	7.0%	12.0%	4.4%	4.79	4.79	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	36	200	847	160	59	37	95%	5.3	18.9%	7.0%	12.0%	4.4%	4.79	4.79	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		212	174	958	4032	838	286	157	82%	4.5	20.8%	7.1%	13.7%	3.9%	4.33	4.39	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	36	200	842	175	60	33	82%	4.5	20.8%	7.1%	13.7%	3.9%	4.33	4.39	-0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
JP Sears (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.11	19.2%	6.5%	4.4%	—	5.52	17.5%	10.1%	283	+0.41	—	—	—
Danny Duffy L 2019 · 4.65 FIP	30	SP	4.65	20.7%	8.3%	4.1%	.279	4.02	24.7%	16.1%	117	-0.63	3.29	915	67
Wade Miley L 2017 · 4.76 FIP	30	SP	4.76	19.5%	12.6%	3.1%	.328	3.96	18.3%	10.1%	288	-0.80	3.36	1,167	59
Jonathon Niese L 2016 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP-	5.28	16.1%	8.1%	4.6%	.308	5.67	10.9%	2.7%	70	+0.39	4.16	368	55
Andrew Heaney L 2021 · 4.43 FIP	30	SP-	4.43	26.9%	7.3%	4.9%	.299	3.74	25.6%	18.3%	380	-0.69	3.19	1,197	54
Yusei Kikuchi L 2021 · 4.49 FIP	30	SP	4.49	24.5%	9.3%	4.2%	.285	4.00	27.0%	19.2%	444	-0.49	3.23	1,041	52
Jaime García L 2016 · 4.38 FIP	30	SP	4.38	20.2%	7.3%	3.8%	.299	4.28	19.4%	9.7%	239	-0.10	2.93	540	51
Drew Smyly L 2019 · 5.49 FIP	30	SP	5.49	24.1%	10.3%	5.7%	.305	4.30	22.7%	16.0%	259	-1.19	2.00	840	50
Derek Holland L 2017 · 5.85 FIP	30	SP	5.85	16.6%	11.7%	4.9%	.299	4.63	23.1%	13.8%	296	-1.22	3.75	686	49
Tyler Anderson L 2020 · 4.13 FIP	30	SP	4.13	15.8%	9.6%	2.1%	.280	3.91	19.2%	12.8%	487	-0.22	3.10	1,288	49
Brett Oberholtzer L 2018 · 5.09 FIP	29	SP	5.09	13.6%	7.3%	4.0%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	442	48
Jeff Locke L 2017 · 4.18 FIP	29	SP	4.18	17.1%	7.9%	2.8%	.345	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	328	47
Mike Minor L 2018 · 4.15 FIP	30	SP	4.15	20.6%	5.8%	3.8%	.253	4.19	23.2%	16.0%	424	+0.04	2.43	807	44
Brian Johnson L 2021 · 4.94 FIP	30	SP-	4.94	15.5%	9.1%	3.6%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	506	44
Ross Detwiler L 2016 · 4.61 FIP	30	SP-	4.61	14.3%	7.8%	3.2%	.297	5.54	14.8%	6.8%	220	+0.93	3.49	512	43
Arturo Lopez L 2015 · 4.80 FIP	32	SP	4.80	13.7%	6.2%	3.8%	.301	4.80	10.9%	4.2%	217	+0.00	4.34	445	43
Mike Montgomery L 2019 · 5.35 FIP	30	SW	5.35	17.2%	8.2%	4.8%	.337	4.80	15.6%	4.4%	86	-0.55	3.43	764	43
Tomas Solis L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	32	SP	4.20	15.0%	6.2%	2.9%	.264	5.09	12.0%	3.7%	159	+0.89	4.20	327	42
Christian Friedrich L 2016 · 3.96 FIP	29	SP	3.96	17.6%	8.8%	2.2%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	188	42
Everett Teaford L 2015 · 4.42 FIP	31	SP-	4.42	13.9%	7.6%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	103	42
Jorge Castillo L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	33	SP	4.50	16.8%	9.2%	3.0%	.292	4.95	12.4%	7.2%	186	+0.45	4.50	408	42

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	143	18.1%	7.1%	1.78	5.19
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Kutter Crawford ('24)	2.0	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47
Cole Irvin ('24)	2.9	118	17.1%	5.6%	1.28	4.46