JP Sears
P
El Paso Chihuahuas
+0.2
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 30
LHP
5'11" / 180 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2027
ERA4.80
FIP4.92
xFIP4.76
SIERA4.50
K%20.0%
BB%6.8%
K-BB%13.3%
IP149
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2027
STUF4040
CTRL6060
CMD4545
K†4545
FB Velo
p1892.2
Whiff%
p2421.6%
K%
p3620.1%
xwOBA vs
p440.319
SI (6%)
CU (4%)
SL-1.4 (37%)
CH-5.5 (15%)
FB-12.6 (48%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 21 | A | Clinton LumberKings | 10 | 0 | 17 | 67 | 29 | 8 | 0 | 32.0% | 14.1% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2.18 | +0.5 |
| 2018 | 22 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 11 | 10 | 54 | 215 | 54 | 11 | 7 | 18.6% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 2.67 | 4.98 | -0.0 |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ | Tampa Tarpons | 13 | 6 | 49 | 206 | 45 | 16 | 3 | 16.8% | 8.9% | 1.9% | 4.07 | 3.84 | +0.6 |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 25 | 18 | 104 | 415 | 136 | 29 | 11 | 27.6% | 7.6% | 2.8% | 3.46 | 3.26 | +2.4 |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 29 | 21 | 118 | 468 | 111 | 29 | 11 | 22.2% | 6.3% | 2.5% | 2.98 | 3.39 | +2.5 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 32 | 32 | 172 | 735 | 161 | 51 | 34 | 21.9% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 4.54 | 4.70 | +1.2 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 32 | 32 | 181 | 758 | 137 | 49 | 28 | 18.1% | 6.5% | 3.8% | 4.38 | 4.50 | +1.6 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 31 | 31 | 149 | 642 | 133 | 42 | 33 | 20.4% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 4.88 | 4.77 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 3 | 3 | 13 | 61 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 15.9% | 10.3% | 1.8% | 4.72 | 4.06 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | SD | 60 | — | 60 | 252 | 48 | 17 | 10 | 18.9% | 6.8% | 4.1% | 4.82 | 5.01 | -0.0 |
| 2026 Total | 30 | MLB | SD | — | — | 73 | 313 | 59 | 23 | 11 | 18.8% | 7.4% | 3.6% | 4.80 | 4.84 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | SD | 26 | 26 | 144 | 607 | 111 | 42 | 26 | 18.4% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 4.99 | 5.11 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | SD | 25 | 25 | 138 | 583 | 103 | 41 | 25 | 17.7% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 5.13 | 5.23 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | SD | 24 | 24 | 132 | 556 | 95 | 40 | 24 | 17.1% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 5.26 | 5.35 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | SD | 23 | 23 | 125 | 529 | 86 | 39 | 24 | 16.4% | 7.4% | 4.5% | 5.40 | 5.49 | -0.3 |
| 2031 | 35 | MLB | SD | 21 | 21 | 118 | 498 | 78 | 38 | 23 | 15.6% | 7.6% | 4.6% | 5.55 | 5.65 | -0.5 |
| 2032 | 36 | MLB | SD | 20 | 20 | 110 | 466 | 69 | 37 | 22 | 14.8% | 7.9% | 4.7% | 5.71 | 5.81 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 186 | 153 | 857 | 3567 | 753 | 250 | 132 | 21.1% | 7.0% | 3.7% | 3.99 | 4.24 | +10.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 36 | 200 | 832 | 176 | 58 | 31 | 21.1% | 7.0% | 3.7% | 3.99 | 4.24 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| JP Sears (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.01 | 18.9% | 6.8% | 4.1% | — | 5.23 | 17.7% | 10.7% | 414 | +0.22 | — | — | — |
| Brandon Mann L 2028 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.73 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 4.1% | .320 | 3.99 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 128 | -0.74 | 3.59 | 190 | 42 |
| Dan Jennings L 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.33 | 19.1% | 9.0% | 3.1% | .245 | 3.85 | 16.6% | 8.5% | 64 | -0.48 | 3.06 | 244 | 40 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2025 · 4.68 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.68 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 3.8% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.70 | 175 | 40 |
| Antonio Bastardo L 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.54 | 24.9% | 9.8% | 4.2% | .268 | 7.97 | 15.0% | -1.4% | 20 | +3.43 | 2.98 | 145 | 40 |
| Ryan Buchter L 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.34 | 24.3% | 9.3% | 3.8% | .202 | 4.17 | 25.3% | 15.6% | 85 | -0.17 | 2.37 | 296 | 39 |
| Kyle Hunter L 2024 · 4.50 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.50 | 14.0% | 6.1% | 3.3% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 188 | 39 |
| Brian Flynn L 2025 · 4.49 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.49 | 17.7% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 277 | 39 |
| Chris Narveson L 2029 · 4.81 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.81 | 23.6% | 8.0% | 4.9% | .333 | 4.63 | 14.1% | 4.5% | 193 | -0.18 | 4.62 | 249 | 38 |
| Jimmy Reyes L 2024 · 4.88 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.88 | 13.8% | 8.0% | 3.5% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 200 | 37 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2025 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.44 | 22.4% | 11.4% | 3.3% | .253 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 126 | 37 |
| James Russell L 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.81 | 12.4% | 5.7% | 3.7% | .286 | 3.84 | 16.8% | 13.2% | 119 | -0.97 | 2.65 | 233 | 37 |
| Matt Lujan L 2024 · 4.61 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.61 | 14.3% | 6.4% | 3.5% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.09 | 227 | 37 |
| Kraig Sitton L 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.89 | 14.7% | 6.1% | 2.3% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.81 | 166 | 36 |
| Tomas Solis L 2028 · 4.17 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.17 | 15.0% | 6.2% | 2.8% | .264 | 5.13 | 12.0% | 3.7% | 159 | +0.96 | 4.17 | 327 | 36 |
| Arturo Lopez L 2028 · 4.79 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.79 | 13.7% | 6.2% | 3.8% | .301 | 4.73 | 10.9% | 4.2% | 217 | -0.06 | 4.33 | 445 | 36 |
| Jeff Beliveau L 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.43 | 25.2% | 11.3% | 3.7% | .261 | 3.85 | 23.3% | 8.9% | 26 | -0.58 | 3.19 | 137 | 36 |
| Travis Blackley L 2028 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.89 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.2% | .324 | 4.45 | 10.5% | 0.0% | 137 | -0.44 | 3.85 | 225 | 36 |
| Jorge Castillo L 2029 · 4.49 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.49 | 16.8% | 9.2% | 3.0% | .292 | 4.82 | 12.4% | 7.2% | 186 | +0.33 | 4.49 | 408 | 36 |
| Aaron Brown L 2026 · 5.36 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.36 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 4.5% | .253 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.02 | 269 | 35 |
| Matt Grace L 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.82 | 17.0% | 4.9% | 4.6% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 289 | 35 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.