Aidan Deakins — OGILVIE

Aidan Deakins P Hickory Crawdads

Age 22 LHP 6'3" / 185 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.4 · 2032

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 39 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 101110vR 118

ERA4.45

FIP4.45

K%20.5%

BB%8.6%

K-BB%12.0%

ROS IP40

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 39 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$28M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2033	Arb-1	$2M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.5M
2034	Arb-2	$3M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-3	$3M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$9M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	10	57	244	66	17	6	62%	3.6	18.9%	8.5%	10.4%	2.7%	4.26	4.07	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	10	57	244	66	17	6	62%	3.6	18.9%	8.5%	10.4%	2.7%	4.26	4.07	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	10	57	244	66	17	6	62%	3.6	27.0%	7.0%	20.1%	2.5%	4.26	3.05	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Hub City Spartanburgers	17	16	79	325	83	31	11	94%	4.6	19.3%	11.4%	7.9%	4.2%	2.85	5.22	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Hub City Spartanburgers	17	16	79	325	83	31	11	94%	4.6	19.3%	11.4%	7.9%	4.2%	2.85	5.22	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	TEX	16	16	76	310	81	30	10	100%	4.7	26.1%	9.7%	16.5%	3.2%	2.74	3.89	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	TEX	1	0	3	15	2	1	1	0%	3.3	13.3%	6.7%	6.7%	6.7%	5.40	6.48	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	TEX	15	15	80	339	73	28	10	100%	5.4	21.6%	8.3%	13.3%	2.9%	4.36	4.31	+0.6
2028	24	MLB MLE	TEX	15	15	82	347	77	28	10	100%	5.5	22.2%	8.0%	14.1%	2.9%	4.27	4.21	+0.7
2029	25	MLB MLE	TEX	14	14	83	352	79	28	10	100%	6.0	22.5%	7.9%	14.6%	2.9%	4.20	4.16	+0.7
2030	26	MLB MLE	TEX	14	14	83	352	80	28	10	100%	6.0	22.7%	7.8%	14.9%	2.9%	4.16	4.14	+0.7
2031	27	MLB MLE	TEX	14	14	82	347	79	27	10	100%	5.9	22.7%	7.9%	14.8%	2.9%	4.17	4.17	+0.7
2032	28	MLB MLE	TEX	13	13	80	336	83	24	10	100%	6.1	24.6%	7.3%	17.3%	3.0%	4.06	3.99	+0.9
2033	29	MLB MLE	TEX	13	13	76	321	78	24	10	100%	5.8	24.4%	7.5%	16.9%	3.2%	4.10	4.12	+0.7
2034	30	MLB MLE	TEX	12	12	71	301	72	24	10	100%	6.0	24.0%	7.8%	16.2%	3.4%	4.22	4.30	+0.5
2035	31	MLB MLE	TEX	11	11	67	281	66	23	10	100%	6.1	23.6%	8.2%	15.4%	3.6%	4.39	4.50	+0.3
2036	32	MLB MLE	TEX	10	10	62	260	60	22	10	100%	6.2	23.2%	8.6%	14.6%	3.9%	4.59	4.73	+0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	TEX	7	7	39	165	36	14	5	100%	5.6	21.6%	8.3%	13.3%	3.1%	4.48	4.43	+0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	TEX	10	10	57	241	53	19	7	100%	5.7	22.2%	8.0%	14.1%	3.1%	4.39	4.33	+0.5
2029	25	MLB CTX	TEX	12	12	68	287	65	23	9	100%	5.7	22.5%	7.9%	14.6%	3.1%	4.32	4.28	+0.6
2030	26	MLB CTX	TEX	12	12	73	308	70	24	10	100%	6.1	22.7%	7.8%	14.9%	3.1%	4.28	4.26	+0.7
2031	27	MLB CTX	TEX	12	12	74	312	71	25	10	100%	6.2	22.7%	7.9%	14.8%	3.2%	4.29	4.29	+0.6
2032	28	MLB CTX	TEX	12	12	73	308	76	22	10	100%	6.1	24.6%	7.3%	17.3%	3.3%	4.18	4.11	+0.8
2033	29	MLB CTX	TEX	12	12	71	300	73	23	10	100%	5.9	24.4%	7.5%	16.9%	3.4%	4.23	4.25	+0.7
2034	30	MLB CTX	TEX	11	11	67	283	68	22	10	100%	6.1	24.0%	7.8%	16.2%	3.6%	4.36	4.44	+0.5
2035	31	MLB CTX	TEX	10	10	63	266	63	22	10	100%	6.3	23.6%	8.2%	15.4%	3.9%	4.54	4.65	+0.3
2036	32	MLB CTX	TEX	10	10	59	249	58	21	10	100%	5.9	23.2%	8.6%	14.6%	4.1%	4.75	4.89	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		109	109	644	2719	632	215	92	100%	5.9	23.2%	7.9%	15.3%	3.4%	4.37	4.00	+6.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	196	67	29	100%	5.9	23.2%	7.9%	15.3%	3.4%	4.37	4.00	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		33	26	136	569	109	58	20	79%	4.1	19.1%	10.1%	9.0%	3.6%	3.44	4.72	+5.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	38	200	837	160	85	30	79%	4.1	19.1%	10.1%	9.0%	3.6%	3.44	4.72	+1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Aidan Deakins (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.45	20.5%	8.6%	2.9%	—	4.23	22.1%	14.0%	246	-0.22	—	—	—
Jake Bennett L 2023 · 3.41 FIP	22	SP	3.41	21.2%	7.2%	2.2%	.339	3.36	19.1%	13.6%	214	-0.05	3.32	277	81
Adam Seminaris L 2021 · 3.94 FIP	22	SP	3.94	22.7%	8.3%	3.1%	.357	3.75	18.2%	9.3%	230	-0.19	3.00	577	81
Carlos Peña L 2021 · 4.06 FIP	22	SP-	4.06	17.0%	6.3%	2.9%	.271	3.95	18.3%	8.2%	309	-0.11	3.17	620	81
Evan Shawver L 2022 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP	4.32	18.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.289	4.73	18.0%	4.0%	152	+0.41	3.92	278	81
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.8%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	81
Robby Ahlstrom L 2022 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	20.1%	9.0%	3.8%	.349	4.06	21.6%	8.6%	175	-0.56	3.74	330	80
Alex Troop L 2018 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP-	4.41	15.0%	7.5%	3.0%	.339	3.82	20.8%	16.2%	106	-0.59	2.93	379	80
Hogan Harris L 2019 · 3.84 FIP	22	SP	3.84	20.5%	10.6%	2.1%	.235	3.71	27.4%	12.7%	74	-0.13	3.11	495	80
Matt Mikulski L 2022 · 4.92 FIP	23	SP-	4.92	19.4%	10.0%	4.0%	.360	6.03	16.3%	-2.8%	144	+1.11	4.92	223	80
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.60	19.5%	5.2%	212	+0.08	3.90	277	79
Andre Davis L 2016 · 4.14 FIP	22	SP	4.14	19.3%	5.4%	3.6%	.320	4.51	17.0%	8.8%	98	+0.37	4.14	154	79
Ben Brecht L 2021 · 4.43 FIP	23	SP	4.43	17.3%	5.5%	3.8%	.237	4.44	21.1%	17.2%	43	+0.01	4.43	118	79
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.83	17.9%	2.7%	99	+0.98	3.85	176	78
Mac Lardner L 2021 · 4.75 FIP	23	SP-	4.75	18.9%	8.5%	4.0%	.332	4.34	17.5%	8.1%	119	-0.41	3.66	186	78
Cole Ragans L 2021 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	20.2%	11.2%	4.2%	.296	3.34	26.7%	17.4%	445	-1.80	2.48	623	78
Rylan Kaufman L 2021 · 4.60 FIP	22	SP	4.60	19.3%	12.1%	2.9%	.305	4.75	18.9%	4.5%	131	+0.15	4.01	212	78
Wilkin Paredes L 2023 · 4.11 FIP	19	SP	4.11	16.2%	9.1%	2.2%	.353	4.96	12.1%	3.3%	273	+0.85	4.11	319	78
Austin Warner L 2017 · 4.01 FIP	23	SP	4.01	18.6%	8.1%	2.6%	.291	4.43	17.6%	9.4%	284	+0.42	3.81	491	78
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	77
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.0	73	23.0%	8.0%	1.21	4.25
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Michael Fulmer ('23)	3.4	96	20.3%	7.6%	0.99	3.94