Aidan Deakins
P
Hickory Crawdads
+0.4
WAR
Age 22
LHP
6'3" / 185 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.6 · 2028
ERA4.37
FIP4.37
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.5%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%13.2%
IP57
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2028
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 21 | A | Hickory Crawdads | 16 | 10 | 57 | 244 | 66 | 17 | 6 | 18.9% | 8.5% | 2.7% | 4.26 | 4.05 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A | Hickory Crawdads | 2 | 2 | 8 | 33 | 8 | 4 | 1 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | TEX | 57 | — | 57 | 241 | 54 | 22 | 7 | 22.5% | 9.3% | 2.9% | 4.37 | 4.37 | +0.4 |
| 2026 Total | 22 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 65 | 274 | 62 | 26 | 8 | 22.7% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 3.83 | 3.83 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | TEX | 59 | — | 59 | 250 | 58 | 22 | 7 | 23.3% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 4.28 | 4.22 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | TEX | 11 | 11 | 61 | 256 | 61 | 22 | 7 | 23.9% | 8.6% | 2.9% | 4.20 | 4.13 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | TEX | 11 | 11 | 61 | 259 | 63 | 22 | 7 | 24.2% | 8.5% | 2.9% | 4.13 | 4.08 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | TEX | 11 | 11 | 61 | 259 | 63 | 22 | 7 | 24.4% | 8.4% | 2.9% | 4.10 | 4.07 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 11 | 11 | 61 | 257 | 63 | 22 | 7 | 24.4% | 8.5% | 2.9% | 4.09 | 4.08 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | TEX | 60 | — | 60 | 253 | 62 | 22 | 7 | 24.4% | 8.5% | 2.9% | 4.10 | 4.10 | +0.6 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | TEX | 59 | — | 59 | 248 | 60 | 21 | 7 | 24.3% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 4.13 | 4.15 | +0.5 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | TEX | 57 | — | 57 | 240 | 58 | 21 | 7 | 24.1% | 8.7% | 3.0% | 4.18 | 4.21 | +0.5 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | TEX | 55 | — | 55 | 232 | 55 | 20 | 7 | 23.8% | 8.8% | 3.1% | 4.24 | 4.28 | +0.4 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | TEX | 53 | — | 53 | 223 | 52 | 20 | 7 | 23.6% | 9.0% | 3.2% | 4.32 | 4.37 | +0.3 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB | TEX | 50 | — | 50 | 212 | 49 | 19 | 7 | 23.2% | 9.1% | 3.3% | 4.41 | 4.47 | +0.3 |
| 2038 | 34 | MLB | TEX | 48 | — | 48 | 202 | 46 | 19 | 7 | 22.9% | 9.3% | 3.4% | 4.51 | 4.58 | +0.2 |
| 2039 | 35 | MLB | TEX | 45 | — | 45 | 190 | 43 | 18 | 7 | 22.5% | 9.6% | 3.5% | 4.62 | 4.70 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 18 | 12 | 65 | 277 | 54 | 25 | 8 | 19.5% | 8.9% | 2.7% | 3.74 | 4.08 | +0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 55 | 37 | 200 | 852 | 166 | 77 | 25 | 19.5% | 8.9% | 2.7% | 3.74 | 4.08 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Aidan Deakins (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.37 | 22.5% | 9.3% | 2.9% | — | 4.14 | 23.8% | 15.2% | 181 | -0.23 | — | — | — |
| Shane McCain L 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.31 | 19.8% | 9.7% | 3.0% | .324 | 4.65 | 16.6% | 10.0% | 125 | +0.34 | 4.31 | 201 | 88 |
| Jake Bennett L 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.40 | 21.2% | 7.2% | 2.1% | .339 | 3.17 | 17.4% | 10.3% | 83 | -0.23 | 1.70 | 146 | 88 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2028 · 4.55 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.55 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 3.9% | .298 | 4.50 | 16.9% | 7.4% | 231 | -0.05 | 3.50 | 300 | 88 |
| Ryne Slack L 2027 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.08 | 18.8% | 9.0% | 2.6% | .293 | 4.99 | 15.4% | 2.5% | 142 | +0.91 | 4.08 | 212 | 88 |
| Michael Johnson L 2028 · 3.88 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.88 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.4% | .260 | 4.75 | 17.6% | 7.7% | 185 | +0.87 | 3.88 | 256 | 87 |
| Garrett Irvin L 2028 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.43 | 23.2% | 11.6% | 3.3% | .283 | 4.34 | 17.7% | 2.9% | 39 | -0.09 | 4.34 | 110 | 87 |
| Chris Cotton L 2028 · 3.68 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.68 | 20.7% | 7.0% | 2.6% | .288 | 4.17 | 9.7% | 3.3% | 61 | +0.49 | 3.68 | 128 | 86 |
| Dominic LoBrutto L 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.21 | 21.4% | 6.9% | 1.9% | .333 | 3.46 | 17.8% | 10.6% | 84 | +0.25 | 2.99 | 135 | 86 |
| Jimmy Robbins L 2028 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.86 | 23.3% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .286 | 4.86 | 18.1% | 2.5% | 99 | +1.00 | 3.86 | 176 | 86 |
| Hunter Schryver L 2027 · 3.58 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.58 | 23.2% | 6.8% | 2.9% | .259 | 4.25 | 19.9% | 7.5% | 106 | +0.67 | 3.58 | 206 | 86 |
| Jerry Vasto L 2027 · 3.26 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.26 | 21.2% | 9.5% | 1.4% | .265 | 3.49 | 23.3% | 12.8% | 147 | +0.23 | 2.88 | 206 | 86 |
| Evan Shawver L 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.28 | 18.8% | 10.6% | 2.6% | .289 | 4.77 | 18.0% | 4.0% | 152 | +0.49 | 4.09 | 219 | 86 |
| Sam Weatherly L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.04 | 24.0% | 12.8% | 2.5% | .323 | 4.14 | 21.9% | 8.9% | 41 | +0.10 | 4.04 | 158 | 86 |
| Mac Lardner L 2027 · 4.76 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.76 | 18.9% | 8.5% | 4.0% | .332 | 4.36 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 119 | -0.40 | 3.70 | 186 | 85 |
| R.C. Orlan L 2028 · 3.91 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.91 | 21.0% | 10.9% | 2.2% | .326 | 4.61 | 17.2% | 5.0% | 119 | +0.70 | 1.71 | 206 | 85 |
| Cameron Ming L 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.81 | 17.7% | 7.1% | 2.4% | .308 | 5.58 | 14.3% | 4.9% | 49 | +1.77 | 3.81 | 111 | 85 |
| Daniel Stumpf L 2028 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.26 | 20.8% | 11.5% | 2.6% | .268 | 3.50 | 22.5% | 15.3% | 123 | -0.76 | 1.84 | 238 | 84 |
| Keylan Killgore L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.24 | 20.7% | 12.7% | 2.3% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.76 | 161 | 84 |
| Hunter Barco L 2027 · 3.59 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.59 | 23.4% | 10.0% | 2.2% | .275 | 3.43 | 23.9% | 11.5% | 99 | -0.16 | 3.43 | 161 | 84 |
| Ben Onyshko L 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.50 | 19.0% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .349 | 5.44 | 20.4% | 8.0% | 100 | +1.94 | 3.50 | 219 | 84 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.5 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.7M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $5M | $13M | +$8M | ||