Aidan Deakins
P
Hickory Crawdads
Age 22
LHP
6'3" / 185 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.7 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION65 act + 40 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 100109vR 118
ERA4.36
FIP4.36
K%22.5%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%13.2%
ROS IP40
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 105 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 10 | 57 | 244 | 66 | 17 | 6 | 62% | 3.6 | 18.9% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 2.3% | 4.26 | 3.83 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 10 | 57 | 244 | 66 | 17 | 6 | 62% | 3.6 | 27.0% | 7.0% | 20.1% | 2.5% | 4.26 | 3.05 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Hub City Spartanburgers | 14 | 13 | 65 | 271 | 61 | 25 | 9 | 93% | 4.7 | 17.1% | 11.1% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 2.62 | 5.29 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | TEX | 8 | 8 | 40 | 168 | 38 | 16 | 5 | 100% | 5.0 | 22.5% | 9.3% | 13.2% | 2.9% | 4.36 | 4.36 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.5% | 9.3% | 13.2% | 3.0% | 4.38 | 4.38 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 105 | 439 | 99 | 41 | 14 | — | — | 22.5% | 9.2% | 13.3% | 3.2% | 3.28 | 4.94 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | TEX | 8 | 8 | 41 | 175 | 41 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 5.2 | 23.3% | 8.8% | 14.5% | 2.9% | 4.27 | 4.21 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | TEX | 8 | 8 | 42 | 179 | 43 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 5.3 | 23.9% | 8.6% | 15.3% | 2.9% | 4.18 | 4.12 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | TEX | 7 | 7 | 43 | 181 | 44 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.2% | 8.5% | 15.8% | 2.9% | 4.12 | 4.07 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | TEX | 7 | 7 | 43 | 181 | 44 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.4% | 8.4% | 16.0% | 2.9% | 4.08 | 4.06 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 7 | 7 | 42 | 179 | 44 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.4% | 8.5% | 15.9% | 2.9% | 4.09 | 4.09 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | TEX | 7 | 7 | 41 | 173 | 42 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.3% | 8.7% | 15.6% | 3.0% | 4.14 | 4.18 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | TEX | 4 | 4 | 20 | 84 | 20 | 7 | 2 | 100% | 5.0 | 23.3% | 8.8% | 14.5% | 2.9% | 4.29 | 4.23 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | TEX | 5 | 5 | 30 | 127 | 30 | 11 | 4 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.9% | 8.6% | 15.3% | 2.9% | 4.20 | 4.14 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | TEX | 6 | 6 | 35 | 148 | 36 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.2% | 8.5% | 15.8% | 2.9% | 4.14 | 4.09 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | TEX | 6 | 6 | 37 | 156 | 38 | 13 | 5 | 100% | 6.2 | 24.4% | 8.4% | 16.0% | 2.9% | 4.10 | 4.08 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 6 | 6 | 38 | 160 | 39 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 6.3 | 24.4% | 8.5% | 15.9% | 2.9% | 4.11 | 4.11 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | TEX | 6 | 6 | 38 | 160 | 39 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 6.3 | 24.3% | 8.7% | 15.6% | 3.0% | 4.16 | 4.20 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 34 | 34 | 198 | 837 | 202 | 72 | 25 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.2% | 8.6% | 15.6% | 2.9% | 4.15 | 3.75 | +3.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 204 | 73 | 25 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.2% | 8.6% | 15.6% | 2.9% | 4.15 | 3.75 | +3.8 | ||
| Career | — | 30 | 23 | 122 | 515 | 92 | 51 | 17 | 77% | 4.1 | 17.9% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 3.2% | 3.38 | 4.60 | +1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 38 | 200 | 842 | 151 | 83 | 27 | 77% | 4.1 | 17.9% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 3.2% | 3.38 | 4.60 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Aidan Deakins (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.36 | 22.5% | 9.3% | 2.9% | — | 4.13 | 23.8% | 15.2% | 127 | -0.23 | — | — | — |
| Adam Seminaris L 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.90 | 22.7% | 8.3% | 3.0% | .357 | 3.75 | 18.2% | 9.3% | 230 | -0.15 | 3.11 | 524 | 82 |
| Jimmy Robbins L 2028 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 23.3% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .286 | 4.89 | 18.1% | 2.5% | 99 | +1.00 | 3.89 | 176 | 81 |
| Hunter Barco L 2027 · 3.51 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.51 | 23.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .275 | 3.79 | 22.7% | 10.5% | 150 | +0.28 | 3.51 | 212 | 81 |
| Jake Bennett L 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.54 | 21.2% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .339 | 3.10 | 19.0% | 12.8% | 156 | -0.44 | 2.79 | 219 | 80 |
| Robby Ahlstrom L 2027 · 4.49 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.49 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 3.5% | .349 | 4.18 | 22.0% | 8.2% | 175 | -0.31 | 3.65 | 308 | 80 |
| Hayden Mullins L 2027 · 4.33 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.33 | 23.4% | 12.4% | 3.0% | .288 | 4.01 | 25.1% | 10.7% | 150 | -0.32 | 3.72 | 239 | 80 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2028 · 4.71 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.71 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 4.2% | .298 | 4.64 | 16.9% | 7.4% | 231 | -0.07 | 3.39 | 300 | 80 |
| Matt Mikulski L 2027 · 4.80 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.80 | 19.4% | 10.0% | 3.8% | .360 | 5.95 | 16.3% | -2.8% | 144 | +1.15 | 4.80 | 223 | 79 |
| Hogan Harris L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.73 | 20.5% | 10.6% | 1.9% | .235 | 3.64 | 27.4% | 12.7% | 74 | -0.09 | 3.14 | 473 | 78 |
| A.J. Block L 2027 · 3.68 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.68 | 22.8% | 10.0% | 2.3% | .262 | 5.86 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 51 | +2.18 | 3.64 | 203 | 78 |
| Bryan Sammons L 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.60 | 22.7% | 10.5% | 2.0% | .275 | 3.91 | 18.4% | 8.4% | 228 | +0.31 | 3.53 | 688 | 78 |
| Evan Shawver L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.04 | 18.8% | 10.6% | 2.2% | .289 | 4.64 | 18.0% | 4.0% | 152 | +0.60 | 4.01 | 258 | 78 |
| Kash Mayfield L 2025 · 4.36 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.36 | 23.3% | 11.4% | 3.3% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 109 | 78 |
| Mac Lardner L 2027 · 4.63 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.63 | 18.9% | 8.5% | 3.7% | .332 | 4.35 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 119 | -0.28 | 3.54 | 186 | 78 |
| Drew Parrish L 2027 · 3.53 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.53 | 24.1% | 7.9% | 2.7% | .261 | 6.22 | 16.8% | 6.5% | 354 | +2.69 | 3.53 | 522 | 78 |
| Carlos Peña L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.19 | 17.0% | 6.3% | 3.2% | .271 | 3.99 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 309 | -0.20 | 3.17 | 577 | 78 |
| Cole Ragans L 2027 · 5.15 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.15 | 20.2% | 11.2% | 4.2% | .296 | 3.38 | 26.8% | 17.4% | 445 | -1.77 | 2.46 | 623 | 77 |
| Rylan Kaufman L 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.35 | 19.3% | 12.1% | 2.4% | .305 | 4.69 | 18.9% | 4.5% | 131 | +0.34 | 4.01 | 212 | 77 |
| Sam Weatherly L 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.86 | 24.0% | 12.8% | 2.1% | .323 | 4.14 | 21.9% | 8.9% | 41 | +0.28 | 3.86 | 189 | 77 |
| Austin Emener L 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.86 | 19.4% | 9.3% | 4.1% | .306 | 5.42 | 23.7% | 8.9% | 49 | +0.56 | 4.86 | 109 | 77 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 7 | 42 | 23.9% | 8.7% | 1.12 | 4.18 |
| Ryan Tepera ('22) | 7 | 48 | 24.7% | 8.8% | 1.12 | 3.53 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Bryan Shaw ('23) | 8 | 64 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 1.12 | 4.19 |
| Hansel Robles ('22) | 7 | 59 | 25.3% | 10.1% | 1.16 | 3.86 |