Aidan Deakins

P Hickory Crawdads

Age 23 LHP 6'3" / 185 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.6 · 2029

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP35OGV rank#724ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	21	MIX2 levels	16	10	57	4.26	3.05	27.0%	7.0%	—	K 18.9% · BB 8.5% · FIP 4.07
2026	22	MIX2 levels	17	16	79	2.85	3.99	25.5%	9.5%	—	K 19.3% · BB 11.4% · FIP 5.22
2027PROJ	23	MLBTEX	—	—	0	4.83	4.83	20.2%	10.4%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBTEX	5	5	26	4.82	4.77	21.1%	9.8%	0.2
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBTEX	6	6	38	4.71	4.66	21.7%	9.4%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$0.4M+2

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 2.2, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 91%

CompsAntonio Bastardo (age 23) · Christian MacLeod (age 23) · Brad Halsey (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109117vR 125

ERA4.83

FIP4.83

K%20.2%

BB%10.4%

K-BB%9.7%

Proj IP49

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 49 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$17M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2034	Arb-1	$0.4M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.3M
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	10	57	244	66	17	6	62%	3.6	18.9%	8.5%	10.4%	2.7%	4.26	4.07	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	10	57	244	66	17	6	62%	3.6	18.9%	8.5%	10.4%	2.7%	4.26	4.07	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	10	57	244	66	17	6	62%	3.6	27.0%	7.0%	20.1%	2.5%	4.26	3.05	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	16	79	325	83	31	11	94%	4.6	19.3%	11.4%	7.9%	4.2%	2.85	5.22	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	16	79	325	83	31	11	94%	4.6	19.3%	11.4%	7.9%	4.2%	2.85	5.22	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	16	79	325	83	31	11	94%	4.6	25.5%	9.5%	16.0%	3.4%	2.85	3.99	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	TEX	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.2%	10.4%	9.7%	3.2%	4.83	4.83	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	TEX	11	11	61	258	55	25	8	100%	5.6	21.1%	9.8%	11.4%	3.1%	4.69	4.64	+0.5
2029	25	MLB MLE	TEX	10	10	58	243	53	23	7	100%	5.8	21.7%	9.4%	12.3%	3.1%	4.58	4.53	+0.6
2030	26	MLB MLE	TEX	10	10	57	241	53	22	7	100%	5.7	22.0%	9.3%	12.6%	3.1%	4.53	4.50	+0.6
2031	27	MLB MLE	TEX	9	9	55	234	51	22	7	100%	6.2	22.0%	9.4%	12.6%	3.1%	4.53	4.53	+0.6
2032	28	MLB MLE	TEX	9	9	53	222	49	21	7	100%	5.8	21.9%	9.6%	12.3%	3.2%	4.58	4.61	+0.5
2033	29	MLB MLE	TEX	8	8	49	205	44	20	7	100%	6.1	21.6%	9.8%	11.8%	3.4%	4.68	4.74	+0.4
2034	30	MLB MLE	TEX	7	7	44	185	39	19	7	100%	6.2	21.3%	10.1%	11.2%	3.6%	4.83	4.92	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	TEX	5	5	26	110	23	11	4	100%	5.2	21.1%	9.8%	11.4%	3.3%	4.82	4.77	+0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	TEX	6	6	38	160	35	15	5	100%	6.3	21.7%	9.4%	12.3%	3.3%	4.71	4.66	+0.4
2030	26	MLB CTX	TEX	8	8	45	190	42	18	6	100%	5.6	22.0%	9.3%	12.6%	3.3%	4.66	4.63	+0.5
2031	27	MLB CTX	TEX	8	8	47	198	44	19	7	100%	5.9	22.0%	9.4%	12.6%	3.4%	4.66	4.66	+0.5
2032	28	MLB CTX	TEX	8	8	47	198	43	19	7	100%	5.9	21.9%	9.6%	12.3%	3.5%	4.71	4.74	+0.4
2033	29	MLB CTX	TEX	7	7	44	186	40	18	7	100%	6.3	21.6%	9.8%	11.8%	3.6%	4.82	4.88	+0.3
2034	30	MLB CTX	TEX	7	7	40	169	36	17	6	100%	5.7	21.3%	10.1%	11.2%	3.8%	4.98	5.07	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		48	48	288	1215	264	117	42	100%	6.0	21.7%	9.6%	12.1%	3.5%	4.76	4.39	+3.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	183	81	29	100%	5.9	21.7%	9.6%	12.1%	3.5%	4.76	4.39	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		33	26	136	569	109	58	20	79%	4.1	19.1%	10.1%	9.0%	3.6%	3.44	4.72	+3.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	38	200	837	160	85	30	79%	4.1	19.1%	10.1%	9.0%	3.6%	3.44	4.72	+1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AHickory Crawdads · 76 IPFIP 3.89 → 5.22 (+1.33)K% 26.1% → 19.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.13%	—	×0.740	19.34%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.68%	—	×1.180	11.42%
HR / BF /BF	3.23%	÷1.000	×1.300	4.19%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.89 → 5.22, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Rangers · 38 IPFIP 2.97 → 4.04 (+1.07)K% 29.2% → 19.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.19%	—	×0.680	19.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.97%	—	×1.250	6.21%
HR / BF /BF	3.11%	÷1.302	×1.400	3.34%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 160).

Result: FIP 2.97 → 4.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AHickory Crawdads · 19 IPFIP 3.20 → 4.12 (+0.92)K% 22.9% → 16.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.89%	—	×0.740	16.94%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.84%	—	×1.180	12.80%
HR / BF /BF	1.20%	÷1.037	×1.300	1.51%

Result: FIP 3.20 → 4.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Aidan Deakins (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.83	20.2%	10.4%	3.2%	—	4.56	21.6%	12.1%	176	-0.27	—	—	—
Antonio Bastardo L 2009 · 4.73 FIP	23	SP	4.73	17.9%	8.5%	3.8%	.297	3.04	33.0%	22.1%	129	-1.69	2.47	404	86
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.61	19.4%	5.0%	215	+0.09	3.88	280	85
Brad Halsey L 2004 · 4.31 FIP	23	SP	4.31	16.3%	9.2%	2.6%	.336	4.43	11.9%	5.4%	254	+0.12	4.31	286	85
Cole Ragans L 2021 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	20.2%	11.2%	4.2%	.296	3.34	26.8%	17.5%	445	-1.80	2.48	623	84
Matt Mikulski L 2022 · 4.92 FIP	23	SP-	4.92	19.4%	10.0%	4.0%	.360	6.03	16.3%	-2.8%	144	+1.11	4.92	223	84
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	83
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.9%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	83
Robby Ahlstrom L 2022 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	20.1%	9.0%	3.8%	.349	4.04	21.9%	8.9%	175	-0.58	3.79	332	83
J.C. Romero L 2000 · 4.58 FIP	24	SP	4.58	18.7%	11.2%	3.0%	.356	3.98	18.2%	8.4%	209	-0.60	2.88	652	82
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	82
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.82	18.0%	2.8%	99	+0.97	3.85	176	82
Andy Oliver L 2010 · 4.66 FIP	22	SP	4.66	17.6%	10.8%	3.1%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	187	82
Austin Emener L 2024 · 4.86 FIP	22	SP	4.86	19.4%	9.3%	4.1%	.306	5.38	21.4%	5.6%	63	+0.52	4.86	123	81
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	81
Russell Smith L 2022 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	16.0%	10.4%	3.8%	.272	4.64	21.2%	7.8%	107	-0.50	4.00	175	81
Hogan Harris L 2019 · 3.84 FIP	22	SP	3.84	20.5%	10.6%	2.1%	.235	3.71	27.4%	12.7%	74	-0.13	3.09	501	81
Dallas Braden L 2007 · 4.14 FIP	23	SP-	4.14	16.6%	7.5%	2.7%	.337	3.89	14.1%	7.8%	401	-0.25	3.64	491	80
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	212	80
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	80
Brandon Knarr L 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	22.6%	13.6%	3.5%	.299	4.15	19.9%	10.8%	158	-0.71	4.08	256	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	53	21.5%	9.7%	1.24	4.65
Jacob Barnes ('25)	1.7	48	22.0%	9.2%	1.15	4.79
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.6	51	21.6%	10.5%	1.24	4.71
Cliff Politte ('06)	2.1	51	19.3%	9.6%	1.23	4.40
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*