Aidan Deakins P Hickory Crawdads
Age 22 LHP 6'3" / 185 lbs A peak 0.6 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION65 act + 40 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 100109vR 118
ERA4.36
FIP4.36
K%22.5%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%13.2%
ROS IP40
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 105 IP
K: -0.1 runs (Runs saved by strikeouts vs lg-avg K%)-0KBB: -0.8 runs (Runs saved by walk suppression vs lg-avg BB%)-1BBCONTACT: -8.0 runs (Runs saved on contact quality (HR suppression) vs lg)-8CONTACTSTAM: +14.2 runs (Replacement credit for innings volume)+14STAMTotal WAR: +0.56 (105 IP)+0.6WAR
0.10.22627
Grades · Contract
Scouting Grades
K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR GS%IP/G K%BB%K-BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
202521MIX2 levels1610572446617662%3.618.9%8.5%10.4%2.3%4.263.83
202521MIX2 levels1610572446617662%3.627.0%7.0%20.1%2.5%4.263.05
▸ 2026 Season
202622A+Hub City Spartanburgers1413652716125993%4.717.1%11.1%6.0%4.1%2.625.29-0.5
ROS22MLBTEX884016838165100%5.022.5%9.3%13.2%2.9%4.364.36+0.1
ROS22MLBTEX022.5%9.3%13.2%2.9%4.364.36
2026 TOT22MLBTEX10543999411422.5%9.2%13.3%3.2%3.284.94+0.6
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202723MLBTEX884117541155100%5.223.3%8.8%14.5%2.9%4.274.21+0.2
202723MLBTEX4420842072100%5.023.3%8.8%14.5%2.9%4.274.21+0.1
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career4420862082100%5.123.3%8.8%14.5%2.9%4.273.83+0.2
/ 200 IP37372008441977920100%5.323.3%8.8%14.5%2.9%4.273.83+3.7
Career302312251592511777%4.117.9%9.8%8.1%3.2%3.384.60+1.1
/ 200 IP4938200842151832777%4.117.9%9.8%8.1%3.2%3.384.60+1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Aidan Deakins (OGILVIE) 4.36 22.5%9.3%2.9% 4.21 23.3%14.5%41 -0.15
Adam Seminaris L 2026 · 3.90 FIP 22 SP 3.90 22.7%8.3%3.0%.357 3.75 18.2%9.3%230 -0.15 3.11 524 82
Jimmy Robbins L 2028 · 3.89 FIP 24 SP- 3.89 23.3%11.3%2.4%.286 4.89 18.1%2.5%99 +1.00 3.89 176 81
Hunter Barco L 2027 · 3.51 FIP 23 SP 3.51 23.4%10.0%2.0%.275 3.79 22.7%10.5%150 +0.28 3.51 212 81
Jake Bennett L 2026 · 3.54 FIP 22 SP 3.54 21.2%7.2%2.4%.339 3.10 19.0%12.8%156 -0.44 2.79 219 80
Robby Ahlstrom L 2027 · 4.49 FIP 23 SP- 4.49 20.1%9.0%3.5%.349 4.18 22.0%8.2%175 -0.31 3.65 308 80
Hayden Mullins L 2027 · 4.33 FIP 23 SP- 4.33 23.4%12.4%3.0%.288 4.01 25.1%10.7%150 -0.32 3.72 239 80
T.J. Sikkema L 2028 · 4.71 FIP 24 SP 4.71 21.9%9.0%4.2%.298 4.64 16.9%7.4%231 -0.07 3.39 300 80
Matt Mikulski L 2027 · 4.80 FIP 23 SP- 4.80 19.4%10.0%3.8%.360 5.95 16.3%-2.8%144 +1.15 4.80 223 79
Hogan Harris L 2026 · 3.73 FIP 22 SP 3.73 20.5%10.6%1.9%.235 3.64 27.4%12.7%74 -0.09 3.14 473 78
A.J. Block L 2027 · 3.68 FIP 23 SP- 3.68 22.8%10.0%2.3%.262 5.86 20.1%8.4%51 +2.18 3.64 203 78
Bryan Sammons L 2026 · 3.60 FIP 22 SP- 3.60 22.7%10.5%2.0%.275 3.91 18.4%8.4%228 +0.31 3.53 688 78
Evan Shawver L 2026 · 4.04 FIP 22 SP 4.04 18.8%10.6%2.2%.289 4.64 18.0%4.0%152 +0.60 4.01 258 78
Kash Mayfield L 2025 · 4.36 FIP 21 SP 4.36 23.3%11.4%3.3%.273 3.23 109 78
Mac Lardner L 2027 · 4.63 FIP 23 SP- 4.63 18.9%8.5%3.7%.332 4.35 17.5%8.1%119 -0.28 3.54 186 78
Drew Parrish L 2027 · 3.53 FIP 23 SP- 3.53 24.1%7.9%2.7%.261 6.22 16.8%6.5%354 +2.69 3.53 522 78
Carlos Peña L 2026 · 4.19 FIP 22 SP- 4.19 17.0%6.3%3.2%.271 3.99 18.3%8.2%309 -0.20 3.17 577 78
Cole Ragans L 2027 · 5.15 FIP 23 SP 5.15 20.2%11.2%4.2%.296 3.38 26.8%17.4%445 -1.77 2.46 623 77
Rylan Kaufman L 2026 · 4.35 FIP 22 SP 4.35 19.3%12.1%2.4%.305 4.69 18.9%4.5%131 +0.34 4.01 212 77
Sam Weatherly L 2026 · 3.86 FIP 22 SP 3.86 24.0%12.8%2.1%.323 4.14 21.9%8.9%41 +0.28 3.86 189 77
Austin Emener L 2026 · 4.86 FIP 22 SP 4.86 19.4%9.3%4.1%.306 5.42 23.7%8.9%49 +0.56 4.86 109 77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

PlayerYrsIP/yrK%BB%HR/9ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION24122.9%9.0%1.124.31
Randall Delgado ('17)37022.2%9.2%0.903.78
Carlos Torres ('17)37120.1%9.0%0.973.77
Jim Johnson ('18)46320.7%8.0%0.904.19
Noé Ramirez ('22)55224.8%9.0%1.334.19
Brandon Maurer ('18)45321.5%8.8%1.065.20
David Hernandez ('19)55425.0%7.9%1.144.10