Michael Kennedy
P
Lake County Captains
+0.2
WAR
Age 21
LHP
5'11" / 200 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.9 · 2031
ERA4.47
FIP4.47
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.2%
BB%9.4%
K-BB%11.8%
IP64
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.9peak
2031
K†5060
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 18 | A | Bradenton Marauders | 13 | 7 | 47 | 191 | 63 | 25 | 1 | 21.9% | 13.9% | 1.0% | 2.12 | 3.54 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 19 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 18 | 17 | 84 | 342 | 95 | 19 | 8 | 19.7% | 6.3% | 3.3% | 3.66 | 4.07 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 18 | 11 | 65 | 289 | 65 | 31 | 5 | 17.5% | 10.7% | 2.3% | 3.86 | 4.25 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 2 | 0 | 7 | 32 | 8 | 5 | 2 | — | — | — | 3.86 | — | — |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | CLE | 12 | 12 | 64 | 268 | 57 | 25 | 8 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.9% | 4.47 | 4.47 | +0.4 |
| 2026 Total | 21 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 70 | 300 | 65 | 30 | 10 | 21.6% | 10.1% | 3.2% | 4.41 | 4.03 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | CLE | 12 | 12 | 67 | 282 | 63 | 25 | 8 | 22.3% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 4.35 | 4.27 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | CLE | 13 | 13 | 69 | 292 | 67 | 25 | 8 | 23.1% | 8.5% | 2.8% | 4.23 | 4.14 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | CLE | 13 | 13 | 71 | 299 | 71 | 25 | 8 | 23.7% | 8.3% | 2.8% | 4.13 | 4.06 | +0.8 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | CLE | 13 | 13 | 72 | 303 | 73 | 25 | 8 | 24.0% | 8.2% | 2.8% | 4.06 | 4.01 | +0.8 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | CLE | 13 | 13 | 72 | 303 | 73 | 25 | 8 | 24.2% | 8.1% | 2.8% | 4.02 | 3.99 | +0.9 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | CLE | 13 | 13 | 71 | 301 | 73 | 25 | 8 | 24.2% | 8.2% | 2.8% | 4.01 | 4.00 | +0.8 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | CLE | 13 | 13 | 70 | 296 | 72 | 24 | 8 | 24.2% | 8.2% | 2.8% | 4.02 | 4.03 | +0.8 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB | CLE | 12 | 12 | 69 | 290 | 70 | 24 | 8 | 24.1% | 8.3% | 2.9% | 4.05 | 4.07 | +0.7 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB | CLE | 12 | 12 | 66 | 281 | 67 | 24 | 8 | 23.9% | 8.4% | 2.9% | 4.10 | 4.13 | +0.7 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB | CLE | 12 | 12 | 64 | 271 | 64 | 23 | 8 | 23.6% | 8.5% | 3.0% | 4.17 | 4.21 | +0.6 |
| 2037 | 32 | MLB | CLE | 11 | 11 | 62 | 260 | 61 | 23 | 8 | 23.4% | 8.7% | 3.1% | 4.25 | 4.30 | +0.5 |
| 2038 | 33 | MLB | CLE | 59 | — | 59 | 248 | 57 | 22 | 8 | 23.1% | 8.8% | 3.2% | 4.34 | 4.39 | +0.4 |
| 2039 | 34 | MLB | CLE | 56 | — | 56 | 236 | 54 | 21 | 8 | 22.7% | 9.0% | 3.3% | 4.44 | 4.50 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 51 | 35 | 203 | 854 | 168 | 84 | 22 | 19.6% | 9.8% | 2.6% | 3.37 | 4.10 | +2.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 35 | 200 | 843 | 166 | 83 | 22 | 19.6% | 9.8% | 2.6% | 3.37 | 4.10 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Michael Kennedy (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.47 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.9% | — | 4.15 | 23.0% | 14.5% | 207 | -0.32 | — | — | — |
| Evan Shawver L 2027 · 4.28 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.28 | 18.8% | 10.6% | 2.6% | .289 | 4.77 | 18.0% | 4.0% | 152 | +0.49 | 4.09 | 219 | 93 |
| Felix Carvallo L 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.57 | 17.1% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .323 | 4.52 | 17.7% | 4.7% | 67 | -0.05 | 4.52 | 132 | 91 |
| Ryne Slack L 2028 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.08 | 18.8% | 9.0% | 2.6% | .293 | 4.99 | 15.4% | 2.5% | 142 | +0.91 | 4.08 | 212 | 90 |
| Shane McCain L 2028 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.31 | 19.8% | 9.7% | 3.0% | .324 | 4.65 | 16.6% | 10.0% | 125 | +0.34 | 4.31 | 201 | 89 |
| Avery Short L 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.75 | 20.1% | 11.4% | 3.5% | .346 | 4.75 | 15.0% | 6.4% | 271 | +0.00 | 4.23 | 387 | 89 |
| Kyle Twomey L 2027 · 4.07 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.07 | 17.6% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .298 | 3.95 | 14.8% | 6.9% | 68 | -0.12 | 3.95 | 141 | 89 |
| Keylan Killgore L 2027 · 4.24 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.24 | 20.7% | 12.7% | 2.3% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.76 | 161 | 88 |
| Nate Peterson L 2028 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.45 | 18.4% | 11.4% | 2.7% | .284 | 4.96 | 17.1% | 5.7% | 161 | +0.51 | 4.32 | 236 | 88 |
| Cameron Ming L 2027 · 3.81 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.81 | 17.7% | 7.1% | 2.4% | .308 | 5.58 | 14.3% | 4.9% | 49 | +1.77 | 3.81 | 111 | 87 |
| Sonny Vargas L 2025 · 4.45 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.45 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 3.4% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.20 | 165 | 87 |
| Ben Onyshko L 2027 · 3.50 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.50 | 19.0% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .349 | 5.44 | 20.4% | 8.0% | 100 | +1.94 | 3.50 | 219 | 86 |
| Mac Lardner L 2028 · 4.76 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.76 | 18.9% | 8.5% | 4.0% | .332 | 4.36 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 119 | -0.40 | 3.70 | 186 | 86 |
| Chase Watkins L 2027 · 3.74 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.74 | 20.6% | 11.8% | 1.6% | .346 | 4.33 | 17.7% | 9.0% | 156 | +0.59 | 3.29 | 213 | 86 |
| Packy Naughton L 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.45 | 17.0% | 9.9% | 2.8% | .323 | 3.61 | 15.9% | 10.0% | 311 | -0.84 | 2.95 | 504 | 86 |
| Christian MacLeod L 2028 · 4.51 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.51 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.7% | .312 | 4.36 | 20.4% | 7.2% | 170 | -0.15 | 3.87 | 236 | 85 |
| Will Mabrey L 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.26 | 18.5% | 12.6% | 2.1% | .256 | 4.29 | 19.2% | 7.0% | 46 | +0.03 | 4.26 | 112 | 85 |
| Hayden Howard L 2028 · 4.17 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.17 | 16.4% | 8.1% | 2.6% | .307 | 3.80 | 17.7% | 8.7% | 123 | -0.37 | 3.76 | 200 | 85 |
| Anfernee Benitez L 2025 · 4.76 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.76 | 18.1% | 10.7% | 3.3% | .383 | 3.90 | 17.8% | 1.5% | 71 | -0.86 | 3.82 | 137 | 85 |
| Sam Weatherly L 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.04 | 24.0% | 12.8% | 2.5% | .323 | 4.14 | 21.9% | 8.9% | 41 | +0.10 | 4.04 | 158 | 85 |
| Michael Johnson L 2029 · 3.88 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.88 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.4% | .260 | 4.75 | 17.6% | 7.7% | 185 | +0.87 | 3.88 | 256 | 85 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.8 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.8 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.8 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.7 | $4M | +$2M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.7 | $4M | +$1M |
| Totals | $9M | $23M | +$14M | ||