Michael Kennedy — OGILVIE

Michael Kennedy P Lake County Captains

Age 21 LHP 5'11" / 200 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.9 · 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION60 act + 44 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111120vR 129

ERA4.89

FIP4.89

K%17.4%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%7.1%

ROS IP44

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 104 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$2M	+$0.9M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2023	18	MIX	2 levels	13	7	47	191	63	25	1	54%	3.6	21.9%	13.9%	8.0%	1.0%	2.12	3.54	—
2023	18	MIX	2 levels	13	7	47	191	63	25	1	54%	3.6	33.0%	13.1%	19.9%	0.5%	2.12	2.29	—
2024	19	MIX	2 levels	18	17	84	342	95	19	8	94%	4.6	19.7%	6.3%	13.4%	3.2%	3.66	3.97	—
2024	19	MIX	2 levels	18	17	84	342	95	19	8	94%	4.6	27.8%	5.6%	22.2%	2.3%	3.66	2.75	—
2025	20	MIX	2 levels	18	11	65	289	65	31	5	61%	3.6	17.5%	10.7%	6.8%	2.3%	3.86	4.23	—
2025	20	MIX	2 levels	18	11	65	289	65	31	5	61%	3.6	22.5%	10.7%	11.8%	1.7%	3.86	3.53	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	A+	Lake County Captains	15	5	60	253	56	24	8	33%	4.0	17.0%	10.9%	6.1%	4.0%	4.68	5.21	-0.5
ROS	21	MLB	CLE	42	0	44	188	33	19	5	0%	1.1	17.4%	10.3%	7.1%	2.9%	4.89	4.89	-0.2
ROS	21	MLB	CLE	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.4%	10.3%	7.1%	2.9%	4.89	4.89	—
2026 TOT	21	MLB	CLE	—	—	104	441	89	43	13	—	—	20.1%	9.8%	10.3%	3.0%	4.77	5.07	+0.4
2026 FULL	21	MLB	CLE	—	—	0	1	0	0	0	—	—	17.4%	10.3%	7.1%	2.9%	4.89	4.51	+0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	CLE	7	7	47	197	37	19	6	100%	6.7	18.9%	9.6%	9.3%	2.8%	4.72	4.65	-0.1
2028	23	MLB	CLE	7	7	48	205	41	19	6	100%	6.9	20.0%	9.2%	10.8%	2.8%	4.58	4.49	+0.0
2029	24	MLB	CLE	7	7	50	210	43	19	6	100%	7.1	20.7%	9.0%	11.7%	2.8%	4.47	4.39	+0.1
2030	25	MLB	CLE	7	7	50	212	45	19	6	100%	7.2	21.1%	8.9%	12.3%	2.8%	4.39	4.34	+0.1
2031	26	MLB	CLE	7	7	50	212	45	19	6	100%	7.2	21.3%	8.8%	12.5%	2.8%	4.35	4.32	+0.1
2032	27	MLB	CLE	7	7	50	209	45	19	6	100%	7.1	21.3%	8.9%	12.4%	2.8%	4.35	4.35	+0.1
2027	22	MLB	CLE	3	3	23	97	18	9	3	100%	7.7	18.9%	9.6%	9.3%	2.8%	4.72	4.65	-0.0
2028	23	MLB	CLE	5	5	35	148	29	14	4	100%	7.0	20.0%	9.2%	10.8%	2.8%	4.58	4.49	+0.0
2029	24	MLB	CLE	6	6	41	173	36	16	5	100%	6.8	20.7%	9.0%	11.7%	2.8%	4.47	4.39	+0.1
2030	25	MLB	CLE	6	6	44	186	39	16	5	100%	7.3	21.1%	8.9%	12.3%	2.8%	4.39	4.34	+0.1
2031	26	MLB	CLE	7	7	46	194	41	17	5	100%	6.6	21.3%	8.8%	12.5%	2.8%	4.35	4.32	+0.1
2032	27	MLB	CLE	7	7	46	194	41	17	5	100%	6.6	21.3%	8.9%	12.4%	2.8%	4.35	4.35	+0.1
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			34	33	236	997	207	90	28	97%	6.9	20.7%	9.0%	11.7%	2.8%	4.45	4.02	+3.8
/ 200 IP	—			28	28	200	844	175	76	24	99%	7.0	20.7%	9.0%	11.7%	2.8%	4.45	4.02	+3.2
Career	—			64	40	255	1075	203	107	29	62%	4.0	18.9%	9.9%	9.0%	2.7%	3.67	4.26	+3.4
/ 200 IP	—			50	31	200	842	159	83	23	62%	4.0	18.9%	9.9%	9.0%	2.7%	3.67	4.26	+2.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Michael Kennedy (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.89	17.4%	10.3%	2.9%	—	4.51	19.9%	10.6%	145	-0.38	—	—	—
Thomas Ireland L 2026 · 4.50 FIP	21	SP-	4.50	16.7%	8.7%	3.1%	.286	3.55	17.3%	8.3%	177	-0.95	2.94	221	89
Kyle Twomey L 2027 · 4.08 FIP	22	SP-	4.08	17.6%	10.5%	2.1%	.298	3.89	14.8%	6.9%	68	-0.19	3.89	141	88
Aidan Deakins L 2026 · 3.83 FIP	21	SP-	3.83	18.9%	8.5%	2.3%	.323	5.29	17.1%	6.0%	62	+1.46	3.83	119	87
Nate Peterson L 2028 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP-	4.40	18.4%	11.4%	2.6%	.284	4.47	17.1%	5.8%	213	+0.07	3.67	288	85
Conner Menez L 2026 · 4.05 FIP	21	SP-	4.05	16.0%	8.5%	2.2%	.282	3.87	21.9%	10.7%	377	-0.18	2.03	503	84
Rolando Gutierrez L 2026 · 4.75 FIP	21	SP-	4.75	12.8%	10.9%	2.5%	.286	3.80	16.2%	-0.1%	18	-0.95	3.51	113	83
Joe Kemlage L 2028 · 4.35 FIP	23	SW	4.35	19.4%	13.5%	2.1%	.278	5.53	17.6%	5.9%	65	+1.18	4.35	128	81
Didier Vargas L 2027 · 4.52 FIP	22	SP-	4.52	15.8%	8.7%	3.0%	.346	4.18	18.9%	8.2%	110	-0.34	3.55	286	81
Jack Patterson L 2027 · 4.72 FIP	22	SP-	4.72	14.7%	8.0%	3.4%	.299	3.08	19.4%	7.9%	80	-1.64	3.08	127	81
Luis Rico L 2026 · 5.17 FIP	21	SP-	5.17	17.2%	13.0%	3.4%	.303	5.16	17.8%	5.9%	105	-0.01	4.43	199	81
Sonny Vargas L 2025 · 4.43 FIP	20	SP-	4.43	21.0%	10.1%	3.3%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	165	80
Andrew Faulkner L 2027 · 4.84 FIP	22	SP-	4.84	18.0%	12.8%	3.0%	.290	4.18	17.7%	6.6%	142	-0.66	3.78	252	80
Mac Lardner L 2028 · 4.63 FIP	23	SP-	4.63	18.9%	8.5%	3.7%	.332	4.35	17.5%	8.1%	119	-0.28	3.54	186	79
Zach Thornton L 2027 · 4.10 FIP	22	SP-	4.10	13.8%	7.2%	2.3%	.335	3.62	21.8%	14.3%	153	-0.48	2.95	221	79
Isaias Uribe L 2025 · 4.19 FIP	20	SP-	4.19	13.5%	9.0%	2.0%	.319	3.76	16.6%	0.3%	13	-0.43	2.98	123	79
Adalberto Mejía L 2027 · 3.93 FIP	22	SP-	3.93	14.7%	9.4%	1.6%	.237	3.71	19.3%	11.8%	344	-0.22	3.39	427	79
Riley Cooper L 2027 · 4.27 FIP	22	SW	4.27	16.6%	12.0%	1.9%	.287	4.35	18.6%	8.4%	44	+0.08	4.27	132	78
Alex Troop L 2027 · 4.27 FIP	22	SP-	4.27	15.0%	7.5%	2.7%	.339	4.00	20.8%	16.2%	106	-0.27	2.96	379	78
Trevor Belicek L 2027 · 3.78 FIP	22	SP-	3.78	12.2%	6.3%	1.7%	.295	3.75	16.3%	9.6%	85	-0.03	3.75	142	78
Connor Oliver L 2028 · 4.29 FIP	23	SW	4.29	17.3%	12.1%	2.0%	.314	5.52	19.2%	3.4%	121	+1.23	4.29	200	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7	48	20.1%	9.2%	1.08	4.53
Shane Greene ('21)	7	56	21.4%	8.5%	1.16	4.67
Jacob Barnes ('24)	7	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Bryan Shaw ('23)	8	64	21.4%	9.4%	1.12	4.19
Drew VerHagen ('23)	6	43	19.7%	9.4%	1.40	4.82
Scott Oberg ('19)	5	51	21.5%	9.3%	0.91	3.85
Matt Albers ('19)	5	49	20.3%	8.3%	1.37	4.21