Michael Kennedy — OGILVIE

Michael Kennedy P Lake County Captains

Age 21 LHP 5'11" / 200 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.6 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 44 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110118vR 126

ERA4.88

FIP4.88

K%17.4%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%7.3%

ROS IP44

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 44 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$4M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2032	Arb-1	$2M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-2	$4M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$4M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	7	47	191	63	25	1	54%	3.6	21.9%	13.9%	8.0%	0.9%	2.12	3.50	—
2023	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	7	47	191	63	25	1	54%	3.6	21.9%	13.9%	8.0%	0.9%	2.12	3.50	—
2023	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	7	47	191	63	25	1	54%	3.6	33.0%	13.1%	19.9%	0.5%	2.12	2.29	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	17	84	342	95	19	8	94%	4.6	19.7%	6.3%	13.4%	3.3%	3.66	4.05	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	17	84	342	95	19	8	94%	4.6	19.7%	6.3%	13.4%	3.3%	3.66	4.05	—
2024	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	17	84	342	95	19	8	94%	4.6	27.8%	5.6%	22.2%	2.3%	3.66	2.75	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	11	65	289	65	31	5	61%	3.6	17.5%	10.7%	6.8%	2.3%	3.86	4.25	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	11	65	289	65	31	5	61%	3.6	17.5%	10.7%	6.8%	2.3%	3.86	4.25	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	11	65	289	65	31	5	61%	3.6	22.5%	10.7%	11.8%	1.7%	3.86	3.53	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	27	5	88	382	84	41	12	19%	3.2	17.1%	12.2%	4.9%	3.9%	5.54	5.34	—
YTD	21	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	27	5	88	382	84	41	12	19%	3.2	17.1%	12.2%	4.9%	3.9%	5.54	5.34	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A+ RAW	CLE	18	5	70	308	64	31	10	28%	3.9	20.8%	10.1%	10.7%	3.2%	5.66	4.40	—
2026	21	AA RAW	CLE	9	0	18	74	20	10	2	0%	2.0	27.0%	13.5%	13.5%	2.7%	5.09	4.01	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	CLE	86	0	90	381	71	36	11	0%	1.0	18.8%	9.3%	9.4%	2.8%	4.71	4.64	-0.1
2028	23	MLB MLE	CLE	89	0	94	395	78	35	11	0%	1.1	19.7%	8.9%	10.8%	2.8%	4.56	4.48	+0.1
2029	24	MLB MLE	CLE	91	0	96	405	83	35	11	0%	1.1	20.4%	8.6%	11.8%	2.8%	4.45	4.38	+0.2
2030	25	MLB MLE	CLE	92	0	97	410	85	35	11	0%	1.1	20.8%	8.5%	12.3%	2.8%	4.37	4.32	+0.3
2031	26	MLB MLE	CLE	92	0	97	410	86	35	11	0%	1.1	21.0%	8.4%	12.6%	2.8%	4.33	4.30	+0.3
2032	27	MLB MLE	CLE	91	0	96	404	85	34	11	0%	1.1	21.0%	8.5%	12.5%	2.8%	4.33	4.34	+0.2
2033	28	MLB MLE	CLE	88	0	93	391	82	34	11	0%	1.1	20.9%	8.7%	12.2%	2.9%	4.38	4.42	+0.1
2034	29	MLB MLE	CLE	84	0	88	374	77	33	11	0%	1.1	20.6%	8.9%	11.8%	3.1%	4.48	4.55	0.0
2035	30	MLB MLE	CLE	79	0	83	351	71	32	12	0%	1.1	20.3%	9.2%	11.1%	3.3%	4.63	4.73	-0.2
2036	31	MLB MLE	CLE	74	0	78	328	72	29	11	0%	1.0	21.9%	8.8%	13.2%	3.5%	4.65	4.66	-0.1
2037	32	MLB MLE	CLE	68	0	72	303	65	28	11	0%	1.1	21.4%	9.2%	12.3%	3.8%	4.79	4.89	-0.3
2027	22	MLB CTX	CLE	43	0	45	190	36	18	5	0%	1.0	18.8%	9.3%	9.4%	2.8%	4.71	4.64	-0.0
2028	23	MLB CTX	CLE	65	0	68	287	57	26	8	0%	1.0	19.7%	8.9%	10.8%	2.8%	4.56	4.48	+0.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	CLE	76	0	80	338	69	29	9	0%	1.1	20.4%	8.6%	11.8%	2.8%	4.45	4.38	+0.2
2030	25	MLB CTX	CLE	82	0	86	363	76	31	10	0%	1.0	20.8%	8.5%	12.3%	2.8%	4.37	4.32	+0.2
2031	26	MLB CTX	CLE	85	0	89	376	79	32	10	0%	1.0	21.0%	8.4%	12.6%	2.8%	4.33	4.30	+0.3
2032	27	MLB CTX	CLE	85	0	89	376	79	32	11	0%	1.0	21.0%	8.5%	12.5%	2.8%	4.33	4.34	+0.2
2033	28	MLB CTX	CLE	83	0	87	367	77	32	11	0%	1.0	20.9%	8.7%	12.2%	2.9%	4.38	4.42	+0.1
2034	29	MLB CTX	CLE	80	0	84	355	73	32	11	0%	1.1	20.6%	8.9%	11.8%	3.1%	4.48	4.55	0.0
2035	30	MLB CTX	CLE	75	0	79	334	68	31	11	0%	1.1	20.3%	9.2%	11.1%	3.3%	4.63	4.73	-0.2
2036	31	MLB CTX	CLE	70	0	74	312	68	27	11	0%	1.1	21.9%	8.8%	13.2%	3.5%	4.65	4.66	-0.1
2037	32	MLB CTX	CLE	65	0	68	287	62	26	11	0%	1.0	21.4%	9.2%	12.3%	3.7%	4.78	4.88	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		807	0	847	3578	741	314	108	0%	1.0	20.7%	8.8%	11.9%	3.0%	4.49	4.12	+4.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	175	74	25	0%	1.1	20.7%	8.8%	11.9%	3.0%	4.49	4.12	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		76	40	283	1204	225	126	35	53%	3.7	18.7%	10.4%	8.3%	2.9%	4.03	4.42	+4.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	28	200	850	159	89	24	53%	3.7	18.7%	10.4%	8.3%	2.9%	4.03	4.42	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Michael Kennedy (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.88	17.4%	10.1%	2.9%	—	4.50	19.7%	10.7%	280	-0.38	—	—	—
Thomas Ireland L 2023 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.7%	8.7%	3.4%	.286	3.80	17.3%	7.9%	201	-0.84	2.95	245	90
Kyle Twomey L 2016 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP-	4.07	17.6%	10.5%	2.1%	.298	3.96	14.8%	6.9%	68	-0.11	3.96	141	86
Conner Menez L 2016 · 4.10 FIP	21	SP-	4.10	16.0%	8.5%	2.3%	.282	3.83	21.9%	10.7%	377	-0.27	2.03	503	85
Jack Patterson L 2018 · 4.72 FIP	22	SP-	4.72	14.7%	8.0%	3.4%	.299	3.10	19.4%	7.9%	80	-1.62	3.10	127	85
Ivan Andueza L 2015 · 3.80 FIP	20	SW	3.80	15.0%	9.4%	1.4%	.304	4.44	11.8%	0.2%	104	+0.64	3.80	151	83
Joe Kemlage L 2022 · 4.42 FIP	23	SW	4.42	19.4%	13.5%	2.3%	.278	5.35	17.6%	5.9%	65	+0.93	4.42	128	82
Estevan Gonzalez L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	23	SW	4.77	14.1%	10.7%	2.8%	.322	4.86	14.7%	0.1%	130	+0.09	4.58	195	82
Didier Vargas L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP-	4.48	15.8%	8.7%	2.9%	.346	4.12	18.9%	8.2%	110	-0.36	3.58	286	81
Luis Viloria L 2023 · 4.18 FIP	19	SW	4.18	14.2%	8.7%	2.1%	.255	4.83	22.6%	4.3%	39	+0.65	3.16	101	80
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	80
Andrew Faulkner L 2015 · 4.74 FIP	22	SP-	4.74	18.0%	12.8%	2.8%	.290	4.06	17.7%	6.6%	142	-0.68	3.70	252	80
Luis Guzman L 2016 · 4.41 FIP	20	SP-	4.41	14.7%	5.9%	3.3%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	4.41	116	79
Matt Osterberg L 2021 · 3.88 FIP	22	SW	3.88	20.2%	12.3%	1.7%	.255	4.04	15.6%	9.3%	274	+0.16	3.70	294	79
Tomas Reyes L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	21	SW	4.44	14.0%	9.5%	2.4%	.292	4.64	16.1%	5.1%	46	+0.20	3.85	154	79
Luis Rico L 2015 · 4.61 FIP	21	SP-	4.61	17.2%	13.0%	2.4%	.303	5.03	17.8%	5.9%	105	+0.42	4.30	199	78
Isaias Uribe L 2023 · 4.10 FIP	20	SP-	4.10	13.5%	9.0%	1.8%	.319	3.76	16.6%	0.3%	13	-0.34	2.98	123	78
Sonny Vargas L 2021 · 4.54 FIP	20	SP-	4.54	21.0%	10.1%	3.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	165	78
Rolando Gutierrez L 2023 · 4.59 FIP	21	SP-	4.59	12.8%	10.9%	2.2%	.286	3.80	16.2%	-0.1%	18	-0.79	3.53	113	77
Scott Squier L 2015 · 5.28 FIP	22	SW	5.28	12.2%	11.2%	3.3%	.362	4.06	13.9%	7.9%	234	-1.22	3.29	276	77
Alex Cornwell L 2022 · 3.76 FIP	23	SW	3.76	18.9%	7.3%	2.4%	.382	3.81	16.2%	8.2%	311	+0.05	3.16	381	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.1	86	20.5%	8.9%	1.16	4.52
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59