Michael Kennedy

P Lake County Captains

Age 22 LHP 5'11" / 200 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.7 · 2031

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

OGV OFP35OGV rank#2432ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	MIX2 levels	18	17	84	3.66	2.75	27.8%	5.6%	—	K 19.7% · BB 6.3% · FIP 4.05
2025	20	MIX2 levels	18	11	65	3.86	3.53	22.5%	10.7%	—	K 17.5% · BB 10.7% · FIP 4.25
2026	21	MIX2 levels	27	5	88	5.54	4.37	22.0%	10.7%	—	K 17.1% · BB 12.2% · FIP 5.34
2027PROJ	22	MLBCLE	—	—	0	5.30	5.30	16.8%	11.9%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBCLE	30	0	32	5.09	5.01	18.2%	10.9%	-0.2
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBCLE	43	0	45	4.91	4.83	19.1%	10.2%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$0.8M2034Arb-2$2M+1

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control45Command45

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.9 / P90 1.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 95%

CompsJoe Kemlage (age 23) · Connor Oliver (age 23) · Andrew Faulkner (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118126vR 134

ERA5.30

FIP5.30

K%16.8%

BB%11.9%

K-BB%4.9%

Proj IP55

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 55 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$7M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-1	$0.8M	—	—	—
2034	Arb-2	$2M	—	—	—
2035	Arb-3	$1M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	7	47	191	63	25	1	54%	3.6	21.9%	13.9%	8.0%	0.9%	2.12	3.50	—
2023	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	7	47	191	63	25	1	54%	3.6	33.0%	13.1%	19.9%	0.5%	2.12	2.29	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	17	84	342	95	19	8	94%	4.6	19.7%	6.3%	13.4%	3.3%	3.66	4.05	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	17	84	342	95	19	8	94%	4.6	19.7%	6.3%	13.4%	3.3%	3.66	4.05	—
2024	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	17	84	342	95	19	8	94%	4.6	27.8%	5.6%	22.2%	2.3%	3.66	2.75	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	11	65	289	65	31	5	61%	3.6	17.5%	10.7%	6.8%	2.3%	3.86	4.25	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	11	65	289	65	31	5	61%	3.6	17.5%	10.7%	6.8%	2.3%	3.86	4.25	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	11	65	289	65	31	5	61%	3.6	22.5%	10.7%	11.8%	1.7%	3.86	3.53	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	5	88	382	84	41	12	19%	3.2	17.1%	12.2%	4.9%	3.9%	5.54	5.34	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	5	88	382	84	41	12	19%	3.2	17.1%	12.2%	4.9%	3.9%	5.54	5.34	—
2026	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	5	88	382	84	41	12	19%	3.2	22.0%	10.7%	11.3%	3.1%	5.54	4.37	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	CLE	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	16.8%	11.9%	4.9%	3.2%	5.30	5.30	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	CLE	61	0	64	269	49	29	8	0%	1.0	18.2%	10.9%	7.4%	3.1%	5.09	5.01	-0.3
2029	24	MLB MLE	CLE	61	0	64	269	51	27	8	0%	1.0	19.1%	10.2%	8.9%	3.1%	4.91	4.83	-0.2
2030	25	MLB MLE	CLE	54	0	57	240	47	23	7	0%	1.1	19.6%	9.8%	9.8%	3.0%	4.79	4.73	-0.1
2031	26	MLB MLE	CLE	54	0	57	239	47	23	7	0%	1.0	19.9%	9.7%	10.2%	3.0%	4.73	4.70	-0.1
2032	27	MLB MLE	CLE	52	0	55	233	46	23	7	0%	1.1	19.9%	9.8%	10.1%	3.1%	4.73	4.73	-0.1
2033	28	MLB MLE	CLE	50	0	52	221	44	22	7	0%	1.0	19.7%	9.9%	9.8%	3.2%	4.78	4.82	-0.2
2034	29	MLB MLE	CLE	50	0	53	224	48	21	7	0%	1.1	21.5%	9.3%	12.2%	3.3%	4.72	4.68	-0.1
2035	30	MLB MLE	CLE	46	0	48	202	43	19	7	0%	1.0	21.1%	9.6%	11.5%	3.5%	4.80	4.86	-0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	CLE	30	0	32	135	25	15	4	0%	1.1	18.2%	10.9%	7.4%	3.1%	5.09	5.01	-0.2
2029	24	MLB CTX	CLE	43	0	45	190	36	19	6	0%	1.0	19.1%	10.2%	8.9%	3.0%	4.91	4.83	-0.1
2030	25	MLB CTX	CLE	44	0	46	194	38	19	6	0%	1.0	19.6%	9.8%	9.8%	3.0%	4.79	4.73	-0.1
2031	26	MLB CTX	CLE	47	0	49	207	41	20	6	0%	1.0	19.9%	9.7%	10.2%	3.0%	4.73	4.70	-0.1
2032	27	MLB CTX	CLE	48	0	50	211	42	21	7	0%	1.0	19.9%	9.8%	10.1%	3.1%	4.73	4.73	-0.1
2033	28	MLB CTX	CLE	46	0	48	203	40	20	6	0%	1.0	19.7%	9.9%	9.8%	3.2%	4.78	4.82	-0.1
2034	29	MLB CTX	CLE	47	0	49	207	44	19	7	0%	1.0	21.5%	9.3%	12.2%	3.3%	4.72	4.68	-0.1
2035	30	MLB CTX	CLE	43	0	45	190	40	18	7	0%	1.0	21.1%	9.6%	11.5%	3.5%	4.80	4.86	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		347	0	364	1537	307	151	49	0%	1.0	20.0%	9.8%	10.1%	3.2%	4.80	4.40	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	169	83	27	0%	1.1	20.0%	9.8%	10.1%	3.2%	4.80	4.40	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		76	40	283	1204	225	126	35	53%	3.7	18.7%	10.4%	8.3%	2.9%	4.03	4.42	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	28	200	850	159	89	24	53%	3.7	18.7%	10.4%	8.3%	2.9%	4.03	4.42	+1.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Lake County Captains · 70 IPFIP 4.40 → 5.44 (+1.04)K% 20.8% → 16.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.78%	—	×0.770	16.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.06%	—	×1.150	11.57%
HR / BF /BF	3.25%	÷1.000	×1.250	4.06%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.40 → 5.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAAkron RubberDucks · 18 IPFIP 4.01 → 4.91 (+0.90)K% 27.0% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.03%	—	×0.810	21.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.51%	—	×1.100	14.86%
HR / BF /BF	2.70%	÷1.000	×1.200	3.24%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.01 → 4.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Lake County Captains · 62 IPFIP 3.38 → 4.25 (+0.86)K% 22.8% → 17.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.76%	—	×0.770	17.53%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.33%	—	×1.150	10.73%
HR / BF /BF	1.87%	÷1.011	×1.250	2.31%

Result: FIP 3.38 → 4.25, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Guardians · 3 IPFIP 5.11 → 6.53 (+1.42)K% 19.0% → 13.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.05%	—	×0.680	12.95%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	28.57%	—	×1.250	35.71%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.388	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 178).

Result: FIP 5.11 → 6.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ABradenton Marauders · 73 IPFIP 2.99 → 4.05 (+1.06)K% 26.6% → 19.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.58%	—	×0.740	19.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.32%	—	×1.180	6.27%
HR / BF /BF	2.66%	÷1.046	×1.300	3.30%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 109).

Result: FIP 2.99 → 4.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 11 IPFIP 0.94 → 1.79 (+0.85)K% 36.6% → 28.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.59%	—	×0.770	28.17%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.32%	—	×1.150	8.41%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.106	×1.250	0.00%

Result: FIP 0.94 → 1.79, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKFCL Pirates · 42 IPFIP 2.11 → 3.50 (+1.39)K% 32.2% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.16%	—	×0.680	21.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.11%	—	×1.250	13.89%
HR / BF /BF	0.58%	÷0.925	×1.400	0.89%

Result: FIP 2.11 → 3.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ABradenton Marauders · 4 IPFIP 3.52 → 5.08 (+1.56)K% 40.0% → 29.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.00%	—	×0.740	29.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	30.00%	—	×1.180	35.40%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.971	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.52 → 5.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Michael Kennedy (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.30	16.8%	11.9%	3.2%	—	4.86	19.0%	8.7%	184	-0.44	—	—	—
Joe Kemlage L 2022 · 4.42 FIP	23	SW	4.42	19.4%	13.5%	2.3%	.278	5.35	17.6%	5.9%	65	+0.93	4.42	128	87
Connor Oliver L 2024 · 4.34 FIP	23	SW	4.34	17.3%	12.1%	2.1%	.314	6.07	19.2%	3.4%	165	+1.73	4.34	244	87
Andrew Faulkner L 2015 · 4.74 FIP	22	SP-	4.74	18.0%	12.8%	2.8%	.290	4.06	17.7%	6.6%	142	-0.68	3.70	252	86
Riley Cooper L 2024 · 4.22 FIP	22	SW	4.22	16.6%	12.0%	1.8%	.287	4.46	18.9%	7.7%	51	+0.24	4.14	139	85
Estevan Gonzalez L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	23	SW	4.77	14.1%	10.7%	2.8%	.322	4.86	14.7%	0.1%	130	+0.09	4.58	195	85
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	84
Casey Fossum L 2001 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP-	4.32	13.2%	9.6%	2.0%	.270	4.46	19.3%	10.9%	328	+0.14	3.50	782	83
Doug Davis L 2000 · 5.12 FIP	24	SW	5.12	14.7%	12.2%	3.1%	.302	4.41	13.0%	4.1%	355	-0.71	3.47	1,713	82
Jack Patterson L 2018 · 4.72 FIP	22	SP-	4.72	14.7%	8.0%	3.4%	.299	3.10	19.4%	7.9%	80	-1.62	3.10	127	81
Brad Mills L 2010 · 4.22 FIP	25	SW	4.22	18.4%	12.2%	2.0%	.273	5.37	19.8%	7.7%	18	+1.15	4.22	243	80
Scott Squier L 2015 · 5.28 FIP	22	SW	5.28	12.2%	11.2%	3.3%	.362	4.06	13.9%	7.9%	234	-1.22	3.29	276	79
Seth Lonsway L 2022 · 4.41 FIP	23	SW	4.41	21.2%	14.4%	2.3%	.304	4.15	16.0%	4.4%	319	-0.26	3.35	506	79
Sam Clay L 2015 · 4.18 FIP	22	SW	4.18	15.9%	14.1%	1.1%	.330	3.69	17.9%	3.0%	232	-0.49	2.50	514	78
Parker Rigler L 2017 · 6.33 FIP	22	SP-	6.33	13.8%	13.3%	5.0%	.318	4.59	14.5%	4.0%	140	-1.74	4.59	192	78
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.60	22.3%	10.3%	152	-0.39	3.90	265	78
Austin Davis L 2015 · 4.83 FIP	22	SW	4.83	14.7%	12.4%	2.5%	.259	2.97	23.3%	15.8%	151	-1.86	2.12	486	78
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	77
Cole Kirschsieper L 2023 · 5.07 FIP	22	SP-	5.07	15.2%	12.0%	3.2%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	5.07	105	77
Lane Ratliff L 2017 · 6.08 FIP	22	SP-	6.08	12.0%	12.8%	4.3%	.344	3.25	15.9%	7.7%	80	-2.83	2.85	109	77
Didier Vargas L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP-	4.48	15.8%	8.7%	2.9%	.346	4.12	18.9%	8.2%	110	-0.36	3.58	286	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	56	19.5%	10.1%	1.22	4.88
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.6	51	21.6%	10.5%	1.24	4.71
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Dan Miceli ('06)	3.5	64	20.6%	10.1%	1.19	4.48
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*
Jerry Don Gleaton ('79-'92, 2 WAR*)	2.2	64	19.4%*	10.2%*	1.05*	4.44*