Sam Clay
P
Toledo Mud Hens
Age 33
LHP
6'3" / 238 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 63 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109118vR 127
ERA4.84
FIP4.86
K%20.5%
BB%11.3%
K-BB%9.2%
ROS IP63
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 63 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1992.3
Whiff%
p2421.6%
K%
p1015.9%
xwOBA vs
p300.335
FB-1.4
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 10 | 72 | 323 | 73 | 38 | 3 | 45% | 3.3 | 15.9% | 14.1% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 3.61 | 4.13 | — |
| 2015 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 10 | 72 | 323 | 73 | 38 | 3 | 45% | 3.3 | 22.6% | 11.8% | 10.8% | 0.9% | 3.61 | 3.20 | — |
| 2016 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 115 | 517 | 115 | 67 | 2 | 100% | 4.8 | 16.6% | 15.1% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 4.60 | 3.96 | — |
| 2016 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 115 | 517 | 115 | 67 | 2 | 100% | 4.8 | 22.2% | 13.0% | 9.3% | 0.4% | 4.60 | 3.07 | — |
| 2017 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 0 | 67 | 284 | 67 | 44 | 0 | 0% | 1.6 | 18.4% | 13.6% | 4.9% | 0.0% | 1.87 | 3.26 | — |
| 2017 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 0 | 67 | 284 | 67 | 44 | 0 | 0% | 1.6 | 23.6% | 15.5% | 8.1% | 0.0% | 1.87 | 3.07 | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 34 | 1 | 52 | 244 | 61 | 36 | 1 | 3% | 1.5 | 20.2% | 16.2% | 4.0% | 0.5% | 5.88 | 3.73 | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 34 | 1 | 52 | 244 | 61 | 36 | 1 | 3% | 1.5 | 25.0% | 14.8% | 10.2% | 0.4% | 5.88 | 3.08 | — |
| 2019 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 1 | 69 | 302 | 72 | 24 | 0 | 2% | 1.5 | 19.9% | 8.6% | 11.3% | 0.0% | 3.25 | 2.50 | — |
| 2019 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 1 | 69 | 302 | 72 | 24 | 0 | 2% | 1.5 | 23.8% | 7.9% | 15.9% | 0.0% | 3.25 | 2.06 | — |
| 2021 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 64 | 0 | 51 | 237 | 41 | 19 | 4 | 0% | 0.8 | 15.9% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 1.9% | 5.08 | 3.79 | +0.5 |
| 2021 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 64 | 0 | 51 | 237 | 41 | 19 | 4 | 0% | 0.8 | 17.3% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 1.7% | 5.08 | 3.63 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 0 | 48 | 216 | 50 | 21 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.2% | 9.5% | 11.6% | 1.7% | 4.10 | 3.43 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 0 | 48 | 216 | 50 | 21 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.1% | 9.7% | 13.4% | 1.9% | 4.10 | 3.41 | +0.6 |
| 2023 | 30 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 42 | 1 | 52 | 239 | 53 | 29 | 8 | 2% | 1.2 | 19.5% | 12.7% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 5.16 | 5.58 | — |
| 2023 | 30 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 42 | 1 | 52 | 239 | 53 | 29 | 8 | 2% | 1.2 | 22.2% | 12.1% | 10.0% | 3.3% | 5.16 | 4.72 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | DET | 60 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 55 | 30 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.5% | 11.3% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.84 | 4.86 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | DET | 55 | 0 | 57 | 242 | 48 | 28 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.9% | 11.6% | 8.3% | 3.3% | 4.98 | 5.11 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | DET | 49 | 0 | 51 | 217 | 42 | 26 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.2% | 12.0% | 7.2% | 3.7% | 5.20 | 5.38 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | DET | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.9% | 11.6% | 8.3% | 3.3% | 4.98 | 5.11 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | DET | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.2% | 12.0% | 7.2% | 3.7% | 5.20 | 5.38 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 68 | 0 | 54 | 258 | 42 | 23 | 6 | 0% | 0.8 | 16.3% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 2.1% | 5.84 | 4.02 | +0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 254 | 0 | 200 | 957 | 156 | 85 | 22 | 0% | 0.8 | 16.3% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 2.1% | 5.84 | 4.02 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 321 | 37 | 528 | 2362 | 429 | 298 | 27 | 12% | 1.6 | 18.2% | 12.6% | 5.6% | 1.1% | 4.12 | 3.79 | +10.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 122 | 14 | 200 | 894 | 163 | 113 | 10 | 12% | 1.6 | 18.2% | 12.6% | 5.6% | 1.1% | 4.12 | 3.79 | +3.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Sam Clay (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.86 | 20.5% | 11.3% | 3.0% | — | 5.24 | 19.5% | 7.8% | 109 | +0.38 | — | — | — |
| Brandon Mann L 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.51 | 19.8% | 11.3% | 3.0% | .286 | 3.60 | 17.8% | 6.4% | 52 | -0.91 | 3.60 | 190 | 86 |
| Ryan O'Rourke L 2024 · 4.13 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.13 | 22.1% | 14.3% | 2.0% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 145 | 79 |
| Phil Coke L 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.00 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .373 | 3.04 | 18.0% | 11.3% | 70 | -0.96 | 3.04 | 101 | 78 |
| Dan Runzler L 2025 · 4.45 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.45 | 17.5% | 11.0% | 2.6% | .325 | 4.79 | 16.0% | 3.0% | 27 | +0.34 | 3.77 | 127 | 76 |
| Craig Breslow L 2027 · 4.86 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.86 | 16.4% | 6.4% | 4.2% | .279 | 4.51 | 16.2% | 6.5% | 94 | -0.35 | 4.22 | 159 | 76 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2024 · 4.29 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.29 | 18.6% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 124 | 75 |
| Neal Cotts L 2028 · 4.65 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.65 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 4.4% | .257 | 4.01 | 21.9% | 14.5% | 93 | -0.64 | 3.24 | 156 | 74 |
| Cesár Ramos L 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.17 | 16.7% | 8.3% | 2.6% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 225 | 74 |
| Adam Loewen L 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.13 | 23.4% | 17.4% | 1.5% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 176 | 72 |
| Brian Moran L 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.25 | 21.7% | 7.0% | 3.8% | .304 | 3.85 | 21.9% | 14.0% | 152 | -0.40 | 1.67 | 421 | 71 |
| Roenis Elías L 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.89 | 17.4% | 7.2% | 2.5% | .316 | 6.84 | 18.4% | 12.3% | 21 | +2.95 | 3.19 | 564 | 71 |
| Chris Narveson L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.83 | 23.6% | 8.0% | 4.9% | .333 | 4.57 | 14.1% | 4.5% | 193 | -0.26 | 4.40 | 249 | 71 |
| Alejandro Soto L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.97 | 17.1% | 6.9% | 2.6% | .376 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 280 | 70 |
| Ryan Sherriff L 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.96 | 22.4% | 12.9% | 2.1% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.94 | 245 | 70 |
| Marc Rzepczynski L 2026 · 5.24 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.24 | 14.8% | 13.2% | 3.1% | .340 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.79 | 181 | 70 |
| Tony Sipp L 2026 · 5.72 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.72 | 20.5% | 9.2% | 5.8% | .320 | 3.38 | 24.4% | 15.6% | 97 | -2.34 | 2.18 | 195 | 69 |
| Luis Avilán L 2026 · 5.19 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.19 | 22.2% | 10.0% | 4.9% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 256 | 69 |
| Boone Logan L 2026 · 5.55 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.55 | 24.1% | 12.1% | 5.4% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 113 | 66 |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2025 · 4.87 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.87 | 15.2% | 7.0% | 4.0% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.79 | 159 | 66 |
| Jeff Beliveau L 2024 · 3.76 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.76 | 23.3% | 14.4% | 1.5% | .309 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 137 | 66 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 57 | 19.9% | 11.6% | 1.29 | 4.99 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |