Sam Clay
P
Toledo Mud Hens
+0.0
WAR
Age 33
LHP
6'3" / 238 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.48
FIP4.48
xFIP6.29
SIERA4.09
K%22.8%
BB%9.8%
K-BB%13.0%
IP47
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
STUF4545
CTRL4040
CMD3535
K†4545
FB Velo
p1992.3
Whiff%
p2421.6%
K%
p1015.9%
xwOBA vs
p300.335
FB-1.4
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | A | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 22 | 10 | 72 | 323 | 73 | 38 | 3 | 15.9% | 14.1% | 1.1% | 3.61 | 4.17 | +0.7 |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ | Fort Myers Miracle | 24 | 24 | 115 | 517 | 115 | 67 | 2 | 16.6% | 15.1% | 0.5% | 4.60 | 3.91 | +1.8 |
| 2017 | 24 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 43 | 0 | 67 | 284 | 67 | 44 | 0 | 18.4% | 13.6% | 0.0% | 1.87 | 3.26 | +1.3 |
| 2018 | 25 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 34 | 1 | 52 | 244 | 61 | 36 | 1 | 20.2% | 16.2% | 0.5% | 5.88 | 3.72 | +0.7 |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 45 | 1 | 69 | 302 | 72 | 24 | 0 | 19.9% | 8.6% | 0.0% | 3.25 | 2.50 | +2.0 |
| 2021 | 28 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 64 | 0 | 51 | 237 | 41 | 19 | 4 | 15.9% | 7.9% | 2.0% | 5.08 | 3.86 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 29 | MLB | New York Mets | 47 | 0 | 48 | 216 | 50 | 21 | 4 | 21.2% | 9.5% | 1.7% | 4.10 | 3.46 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 30 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 42 | 1 | 52 | 239 | 53 | 29 | 8 | 19.5% | 12.7% | 4.0% | 5.16 | 5.24 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | DET | 47 | — | 47 | 199 | 40 | 23 | 6 | 19.9% | 11.3% | 3.0% | 4.81 | 4.89 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | DET | 45 | — | 45 | 189 | 37 | 21 | 6 | 19.6% | 11.3% | 3.1% | 4.88 | 4.97 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | DET | 42 | — | 42 | 178 | 34 | 20 | 6 | 19.1% | 11.4% | 3.2% | 4.97 | 5.07 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | DET | 39 | — | 39 | 166 | 31 | 19 | 6 | 18.5% | 11.5% | 3.3% | 5.09 | 5.20 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 321 | 37 | 528 | 2362 | 429 | 298 | 26 | 18.2% | 12.6% | 1.1% | 4.12 | 3.76 | +9.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 122 | 14 | 200 | 894 | 162 | 113 | 10 | 18.2% | 12.6% | 1.1% | 4.12 | 3.76 | +3.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Sam Clay (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.89 | 19.9% | 11.3% | 3.0% | — | 5.08 | 19.1% | 7.7% | 126 | +0.19 | — | — | — |
| Phil Coke L 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.85 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 2.1% | .373 | 3.04 | 18.0% | 11.3% | 70 | -0.81 | 3.04 | 101 | 83 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2024 · 4.27 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.27 | 18.6% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 124 | 81 |
| Brandon Mann L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.27 | 19.8% | 11.3% | 2.6% | .286 | 3.59 | 17.8% | 6.4% | 52 | -0.68 | 3.59 | 190 | 80 |
| Dan Runzler L 2025 · 4.14 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.14 | 17.5% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .325 | 4.83 | 16.0% | 3.0% | 27 | +0.69 | 3.78 | 127 | 80 |
| Francisley Bueno L 2027 · 3.78 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.78 | 14.8% | 7.1% | 1.9% | .315 | 3.99 | 13.3% | 6.6% | 110 | +0.21 | 3.51 | 138 | 77 |
| Ryan O'Rourke L 2024 · 4.08 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.08 | 22.1% | 14.3% | 1.9% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.09 | 145 | 76 |
| Boone Logan L 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.22 | 24.1% | 12.1% | 4.8% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.64 | 113 | 75 |
| Franklin Morales L 2024 · 4.03 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.03 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 2.2% | .267 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 101 | 74 |
| Ryan Sherriff L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.97 | 22.4% | 12.9% | 2.1% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.97 | 245 | 74 |
| Marc Rzepczynski L 2026 · 5.39 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.39 | 14.8% | 13.2% | 3.4% | .340 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.71 | 181 | 74 |
| Neal Cotts L 2028 · 4.64 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.64 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 4.4% | .257 | 3.78 | 21.9% | 14.5% | 93 | -0.86 | 3.21 | 156 | 74 |
| Brian Moran L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.19 | 21.7% | 7.0% | 3.7% | .304 | 3.80 | 21.9% | 14.0% | 152 | -0.39 | 1.81 | 421 | 73 |
| Craig Breslow L 2027 · 5.04 FIP | 34 | SW | 5.04 | 16.4% | 6.4% | 4.6% | .279 | 4.48 | 16.2% | 6.5% | 94 | -0.56 | 4.28 | 159 | 72 |
| Adam Loewen L 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.20 | 23.4% | 17.4% | 1.6% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 176 | 72 |
| Tony Sipp L 2026 · 5.86 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.86 | 20.5% | 9.2% | 6.1% | .320 | 3.43 | 24.4% | 15.6% | 97 | -2.43 | 2.19 | 195 | 72 |
| Luis Avilán L 2026 · 5.45 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.45 | 22.2% | 10.0% | 5.4% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.65 | 256 | 70 |
| Luke Westphal L 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.42 | 24.2% | 13.4% | 3.0% | .302 | 5.50 | 16.1% | -3.1% | 26 | +1.08 | 2.97 | 294 | 70 |
| Roenis Elías L 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.12 | 17.4% | 7.2% | 2.9% | .316 | 6.64 | 18.4% | 12.3% | 21 | +2.52 | 3.14 | 564 | 70 |
| Chris Narveson L 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.81 | 23.6% | 8.0% | 4.9% | .333 | 4.63 | 14.1% | 4.5% | 193 | -0.18 | 4.62 | 249 | 70 |
| Jeff Beliveau L 2024 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.85 | 23.3% | 14.4% | 1.7% | .309 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.19 | 137 | 69 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.