Wilkin Paredes — OGILVIE

Wilkin Paredes P Visalia Rawhide

Age 22 LHP 6'2" / 180 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.3 · 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION75 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127135vR 143

ERA5.78

FIP5.78

K%10.0%

BB%11.5%

K-BB%-1.5%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 82 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$11M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF2020

CTRL4545

CMD2020

K†3040

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2034	Arb-1	$3M	—	—	—
2035	Arb-2	$5M	—	—	—
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs Red	12	10	46	206	49	15	3	83%	3.8	16.2%	9.1%	7.1%	2.2%	5.09	4.11	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs Red	12	10	46	206	49	15	3	83%	3.8	16.2%	9.1%	7.1%	2.2%	5.09	4.11	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs Red	12	10	46	206	49	15	3	83%	3.8	23.8%	7.3%	16.5%	1.5%	5.09	2.80	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	16	90	391	77	18	13	89%	5.0	14.1%	5.6%	8.6%	4.2%	5.10	4.94	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	16	90	391	77	18	13	89%	5.0	14.1%	5.6%	8.6%	4.2%	5.10	4.94	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	16	90	391	77	18	13	89%	5.0	19.7%	4.6%	15.1%	3.3%	5.10	3.87	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	116	501	64	42	13	100%	5.3	9.6%	9.8%	-0.2%	2.9%	3.73	5.10	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	116	501	64	42	13	100%	5.3	9.6%	9.8%	-0.2%	2.9%	3.73	5.10	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	116	501	64	42	13	100%	5.3	12.8%	8.4%	4.4%	2.6%	3.73	4.54	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	23	10	75	334	62	30	7	43%	3.3	13.7%	10.6%	3.1%	2.7%	4.68	4.78	—
YTD	22	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	23	10	75	334	62	30	7	43%	3.3	13.7%	10.6%	3.1%	2.7%	4.68	4.78	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	ARI	23	10	75	334	62	30	7	43%	3.3	18.6%	9.0%	9.6%	2.1%	4.68	3.82	—
ROS	22	MLB MLE	ARI	6	0	7	29	3	3	1	0%	1.1	10.0%	11.5%	-1.5%	3.1%	5.78	5.78	-0.1
2026 TOT	22	MLB MLE	ARI	—	—	82	363	65	33	8	—	—	17.9%	9.2%	8.7%	2.2%	4.77	4.86	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	ARI	18	18	108	456	60	49	14	100%	6.0	13.2%	10.8%	2.3%	3.0%	5.49	5.40	-0.6
2028	24	MLB MLE	ARI	19	19	111	467	71	49	14	100%	5.8	15.1%	10.4%	4.7%	3.0%	5.25	5.16	-0.3
2029	25	MLB MLE	ARI	19	19	112	473	77	48	14	100%	5.9	16.3%	10.1%	6.2%	3.0%	5.09	5.02	-0.2
2030	26	MLB MLE	ARI	19	19	112	473	80	47	14	100%	5.9	16.9%	10.0%	6.9%	3.0%	5.00	4.95	-0.1
2031	27	MLB MLE	ARI	18	18	110	466	79	47	14	100%	6.1	16.9%	10.1%	6.8%	3.0%	4.99	4.99	-0.1
2032	28	MLB MLE	ARI	18	18	107	452	76	46	14	100%	5.9	16.8%	10.2%	6.5%	3.1%	5.04	5.07	-0.2
2033	29	MLB MLE	ARI	17	17	102	432	71	45	14	100%	6.0	16.5%	10.5%	6.1%	3.3%	5.14	5.21	-0.4
2034	30	MLB MLE	ARI	16	16	96	406	66	44	14	100%	6.0	16.2%	10.8%	5.4%	3.5%	5.29	5.38	-0.5
2027	23	MLB CTX	ARI	9	9	53	224	29	24	6	100%	5.9	13.2%	10.8%	2.3%	2.9%	5.40	5.31	-0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	ARI	13	13	77	325	49	34	9	100%	5.9	15.1%	10.4%	4.7%	2.8%	5.16	5.07	-0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	ARI	15	15	91	384	63	39	11	100%	6.1	16.3%	10.1%	6.2%	2.8%	5.00	4.93	-0.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	ARI	16	16	98	414	70	41	12	100%	6.1	16.9%	10.0%	6.9%	2.8%	4.91	4.86	-0.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	ARI	17	17	100	422	71	43	12	100%	5.9	16.9%	10.1%	6.8%	2.9%	4.90	4.90	-0.1
2032	28	MLB CTX	ARI	16	16	99	418	70	43	12	100%	6.2	16.8%	10.2%	6.5%	3.0%	4.95	4.98	-0.2
2033	29	MLB CTX	ARI	16	16	95	401	66	42	12	100%	5.9	16.5%	10.5%	6.1%	3.1%	5.04	5.11	-0.3
2034	30	MLB CTX	ARI	15	15	90	380	62	41	12	100%	6.0	16.2%	10.8%	5.4%	3.3%	5.19	5.28	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		118	118	703	2967	480	307	87	100%	6.0	16.2%	10.3%	5.9%	2.9%	5.04	4.66	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	137	87	25	100%	6.0	16.2%	10.3%	5.9%	2.9%	5.04	4.66	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		75	58	327	1432	183	125	45	77%	4.4	12.8%	8.7%	4.0%	3.1%	4.52	4.84	-2.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	36	200	877	112	77	27	77%	4.4	12.8%	8.7%	4.0%	3.1%	4.52	4.84	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Wilkin Paredes (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.78	10.0%	11.5%	3.1%	—	5.19	14.9%	4.4%	331	-0.59	—	—	—
Cole Kirschsieper L 2023 · 5.07 FIP	22	SP-	5.07	15.2%	12.0%	3.2%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	5.07	105	82
Rolando Gutierrez L 2023 · 4.59 FIP	21	SP-	4.59	12.8%	10.9%	2.2%	.286	3.80	16.2%	-0.1%	18	-0.79	3.53	113	81
Jake Zokan L 2015 · 4.89 FIP	24	SP	4.89	12.5%	9.9%	2.9%	.292	1.79	24.2%	22.5%	37	-3.10	1.79	120	81
Demetrio Gutierrez L 2015 · 5.33 FIP	25	SP-	5.33	12.3%	8.5%	4.0%	.327	4.78	10.7%	3.9%	181	-0.55	3.68	322	78
Evan Grills L 2015 · 5.42 FIP	23	SP-	5.42	13.0%	8.6%	4.2%	.335	4.02	16.1%	11.6%	221	-1.40	3.41	309	76
Dominic Perachi L 2023 · 5.19 FIP	22	SP-	5.19	17.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.324	3.80	17.1%	6.8%	186	-1.39	3.33	277	76
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	75
Michael Roth L 2015 · 4.94 FIP	25	SP-	4.94	12.1%	8.3%	3.3%	.298	4.42	13.5%	6.2%	358	-0.52	3.96	483	75
Brooks Gosswein L 2022 · 5.13 FIP	23	SP	5.13	14.7%	14.8%	2.5%	.328	5.61	15.2%	-2.7%	66	+0.48	5.13	165	75
Jeffry Antigua L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	25	SP-	4.60	11.4%	8.6%	2.5%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	4.60	133	75
Joely Rodríguez L 2015 · 4.72 FIP	23	SP-	4.72	10.7%	10.1%	2.3%	.340	3.76	17.5%	8.0%	172	-0.96	1.56	449	74
Parker Rigler L 2017 · 6.33 FIP	22	SP-	6.33	13.8%	13.3%	5.0%	.318	4.59	14.5%	4.0%	140	-1.74	4.59	192	74
Luis González L 2015 · 4.88 FIP	23	SP	4.88	12.4%	11.8%	2.4%	.386	3.32	24.1%	14.7%	164	-1.56	3.15	416	74
Nate Bertness L 2018 · 5.34 FIP	22	SP-	5.34	14.2%	15.1%	2.8%	.314	5.35	20.3%	8.6%	62	+0.01	3.78	382	74
Jared Tobey L 2018 · 5.39 FIP	22	SP	5.39	11.9%	15.1%	2.5%	.289	4.05	22.3%	10.4%	97	-1.34	3.99	158	74
Ryan Hartman L 2017 · 4.65 FIP	23	SP-	4.65	15.1%	8.5%	3.2%	.274	4.53	22.0%	14.5%	236	-0.12	3.24	456	73
Rob Zastryzny L 2015 · 5.33 FIP	23	SP	5.33	13.8%	10.9%	3.7%	.345	4.28	18.5%	9.1%	268	-1.05	3.34	634	73
Eddie Campbell L 2015 · 5.05 FIP	23	SP	5.05	13.5%	10.7%	3.2%	.315	6.31	13.7%	-3.8%	140	+1.26	5.05	250	72
Victor Payano L 2015 · 6.06 FIP	22	SP-	6.06	14.8%	16.5%	3.9%	.287	4.82	20.5%	7.0%	225	-1.24	3.78	341	72
Hector Acosta L 2019 · 5.38 FIP	20	SP	5.38	6.6%	9.5%	3.0%	.363	—	—	—	—	—	3.57	123	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.7	104	15.5%	10.5%	1.20	5.21
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56