Wilkin Paredes
P
Visalia Rawhide
+0.0
WAR
Age 22
LHP
6'2" / 180 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 2.0 · 2030
ERA4.84
FIP4.84
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%17.2%
BB%8.9%
K-BB%8.2%
IP116
trajectory · 10 yrs
2.0peak
2030
K†4050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | ACL D-backs Red | 12 | 10 | 46 | 206 | 49 | 15 | 3 | 16.2% | 9.1% | 2.3% | 5.09 | 4.13 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 20 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 18 | 16 | 90 | 391 | 77 | 18 | 13 | 14.1% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 5.10 | 4.93 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | 22 | 22 | 116 | 501 | 64 | 42 | 13 | 9.6% | 9.8% | 2.8% | 3.73 | 5.06 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 2 | 2 | 6 | 30 | 6 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 9.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | ARI | 21 | 21 | 116 | 489 | 84 | 44 | 15 | 17.2% | 8.9% | 3.1% | 4.84 | 4.84 | +0.6 |
| 2026 Total | 22 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 122 | 519 | 90 | 46 | 16 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 3.1% | 5.05 | 4.60 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | ARI | 25 | 25 | 140 | 591 | 112 | 50 | 18 | 19.0% | 8.5% | 3.0% | 4.67 | 4.60 | +1.1 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | ARI | 29 | 29 | 160 | 673 | 135 | 55 | 20 | 20.1% | 8.2% | 3.0% | 4.53 | 4.45 | +1.5 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 32 | 32 | 174 | 733 | 152 | 59 | 22 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.37 | +1.8 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 33 | 33 | 180 | 762 | 160 | 61 | 23 | 21.0% | 8.0% | 3.0% | 4.38 | 4.34 | +2.0 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 33 | 33 | 179 | 756 | 159 | 60 | 23 | 21.0% | 8.0% | 3.0% | 4.36 | 4.35 | +1.9 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 32 | 32 | 176 | 745 | 156 | 60 | 22 | 21.0% | 8.0% | 3.0% | 4.37 | 4.38 | +1.8 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 31 | 31 | 172 | 728 | 152 | 59 | 22 | 20.8% | 8.1% | 3.1% | 4.40 | 4.42 | +1.7 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 30 | 30 | 167 | 706 | 146 | 58 | 22 | 20.6% | 8.2% | 3.1% | 4.45 | 4.48 | +1.6 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | ARI | 29 | 29 | 161 | 681 | 139 | 57 | 22 | 20.4% | 8.3% | 3.2% | 4.52 | 4.56 | +1.4 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | ARI | 28 | 28 | 155 | 654 | 132 | 55 | 21 | 20.1% | 8.5% | 3.3% | 4.60 | 4.65 | +1.1 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB | ARI | 27 | 27 | 148 | 624 | 124 | 54 | 21 | 19.8% | 8.7% | 3.4% | 4.69 | 4.74 | +0.9 |
| 2038 | 34 | MLB | ARI | 26 | 26 | 140 | 593 | 115 | 53 | 20 | 19.5% | 8.9% | 3.5% | 4.79 | 4.85 | +0.7 |
| 2039 | 35 | MLB | ARI | 24 | 24 | 132 | 559 | 107 | 51 | 20 | 19.1% | 9.1% | 3.6% | 4.90 | 4.98 | +0.5 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 54 | 50 | 258 | 1128 | 143 | 92 | 36 | 12.7% | 8.1% | 3.2% | 4.58 | 4.82 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 39 | 200 | 876 | 111 | 71 | 28 | 12.7% | 8.1% | 3.2% | 4.58 | 4.82 | +1.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Wilkin Paredes (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.84 | 17.2% | 8.9% | 3.1% | — | 4.47 | 20.0% | 11.8% | 473 | -0.37 | — | — | — |
| Eddie Campbell L 2027 · 5.06 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.06 | 13.5% | 10.7% | 3.2% | .315 | 6.31 | 13.7% | -3.8% | 140 | +1.25 | 5.06 | 250 | 94 |
| Cole Kirschsieper L 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.04 | 15.2% | 12.0% | 3.1% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.04 | 105 | 93 |
| Drew Dowd L 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.39 | 16.1% | 11.7% | 2.1% | .280 | 3.14 | 24.9% | 16.0% | 55 | -1.25 | 3.14 | 166 | 90 |
| Austin Davis L 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.86 | 14.7% | 12.4% | 2.6% | .259 | 2.96 | 23.3% | 15.8% | 151 | -1.90 | 2.22 | 486 | 88 |
| Connor O'Halloran L 2025 · 5.08 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.08 | 17.2% | 12.3% | 3.4% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.08 | 104 | 88 |
| Scott DeCecco L 2028 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.56 | 14.5% | 11.5% | 2.2% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.56 | 125 | 88 |
| Hunter Owen L 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.33 | 14.5% | 8.7% | 2.5% | .270 | 4.14 | 21.0% | 10.3% | 95 | -0.19 | 4.14 | 197 | 86 |
| Jesse Biddle L 2027 · 4.75 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.75 | 12.9% | 11.4% | 2.4% | .329 | 3.52 | 23.1% | 13.9% | 113 | -1.23 | 3.35 | 311 | 86 |
| Luis Leroy Cruz L 2028 · 5.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.02 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 3.6% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.02 | 116 | 86 |
| Tom Windle L 2027 · 4.63 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.63 | 12.3% | 13.0% | 1.7% | .304 | 4.31 | 18.0% | 6.8% | 159 | -0.32 | 3.66 | 330 | 86 |
| Brooks Gosswein L 2027 · 5.11 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.11 | 14.7% | 14.8% | 2.5% | .328 | 5.60 | 15.2% | -2.7% | 66 | +0.49 | 5.11 | 165 | 85 |
| Andrew Faulkner L 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.76 | 18.0% | 12.8% | 2.9% | .290 | 4.07 | 17.7% | 6.6% | 142 | -0.69 | 3.72 | 252 | 85 |
| Luis González L 2027 · 4.91 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.91 | 12.4% | 11.8% | 2.5% | .386 | 3.33 | 24.1% | 14.7% | 164 | -1.58 | 3.19 | 416 | 85 |
| Matthew Crownover L 2027 · 4.35 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.35 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .300 | 4.57 | 12.4% | 4.3% | 248 | +0.22 | 4.35 | 377 | 85 |
| Jake Zokan L 2028 · 4.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.93 | 12.5% | 9.9% | 3.0% | .292 | 1.79 | 24.2% | 22.5% | 37 | -3.14 | 1.79 | 120 | 85 |
| Dominic Perachi L 2026 · 5.19 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.19 | 17.5% | 13.9% | 3.3% | .324 | 3.56 | 17.8% | 7.8% | 150 | -1.63 | 3.30 | 240 | 85 |
| JoJo Romero L 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.55 | 15.5% | 9.8% | 2.8% | .328 | 5.18 | 25.4% | 10.5% | 16 | +0.63 | 2.64 | 541 | 84 |
| Sam Garcia L 2027 · 5.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.14 | 18.5% | 12.7% | 3.6% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.14 | 101 | 84 |
| Wandy Peralta L 2028 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.51 | 12.4% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .324 | 3.82 | 17.3% | 7.3% | 200 | -0.69 | 2.70 | 655 | 83 |
| Trey Ball L 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.12 | 12.4% | 14.7% | 2.2% | .305 | 5.16 | 14.6% | 4.3% | 190 | +0.04 | 5.08 | 437 | 83 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.9 | $18M | +$17M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +1.8 | $17M | +$16M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +1.7 | $17M | +$16M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +1.5 | $15M | +$14M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +1.4 | $15M | +$13M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $5M | $81M | +$76M | ||