Joely Rodríguez
P
Boston Red Sox
Age 34
LHP
6'1" / 223 lbs
MLB
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 78 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 102111vR 120
ERA4.36
FIP4.45
K%21.8%
BB%8.9%
K-BB%12.8%
ROS IP79
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 78 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1090.0
Whiff%
p1220.0%
K%
p2718.8%
xwOBA vs
p280.338
SI (49%)
FB (46%)
SL (15%)
CH-3.2 (39%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 21 | 129 | 584 | 74 | 55 | 11 | 66% | 4.0 | 10.7% | 10.1% | 0.6% | 2.4% | 6.12 | 4.79 | — |
| 2015 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 21 | 129 | 584 | 74 | 55 | 11 | 66% | 4.0 | 12.7% | 9.4% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 6.12 | 4.34 | — |
| 2016 | 24 | MIX | 4 levels | 65 | 0 | 86 | 343 | 76 | 25 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 17.8% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 0.8% | 2.40 | 3.11 | +2.0 |
| 2016 | 24 | MIX | 4 levels | 65 | 0 | 86 | 343 | 76 | 25 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 22.2% | 7.3% | 14.9% | 0.9% | 2.40 | 2.66 | +2.5 |
| 2017 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 54 | 263 | 39 | 30 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 13.9% | 11.7% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 6.33 | 5.34 | -0.5 |
| 2017 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 54 | 263 | 39 | 30 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.8% | 11.4% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 6.33 | 5.73 | -0.7 |
| 2018 | 26 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 33 | 1 | 49 | 219 | 52 | 18 | 1 | 3% | 1.5 | 20.9% | 8.6% | 12.3% | 0.5% | 4.56 | 2.73 | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 33 | 1 | 49 | 219 | 52 | 18 | 1 | 3% | 1.5 | 23.7% | 8.2% | 15.5% | 0.5% | 4.56 | 2.35 | — |
| 2020 | 28 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 12 | 0 | 13 | 52 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 32.7% | 9.6% | 23.1% | 0.0% | 2.13 | 1.56 | +0.4 |
| 2020 | 28 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 12 | 0 | 13 | 52 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 32.7% | 9.6% | 23.1% | 0.0% | 2.13 | 1.60 | +0.4 |
| 2021 | 29 | MLB | New York Yankees | 52 | 0 | 46 | 207 | 47 | 17 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 22.7% | 8.2% | 14.5% | 1.8% | 4.66 | 3.21 | +0.7 |
| 2021 | 29 | MLB | New York Yankees | 52 | 0 | 46 | 207 | 47 | 17 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 22.7% | 8.2% | 14.5% | 1.9% | 4.66 | 3.29 | +0.7 |
| 2022 | 30 | MLB | New York Mets | 55 | 0 | 50 | 216 | 57 | 25 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 26.4% | 11.6% | 14.8% | 1.4% | 4.47 | 3.10 | +0.9 |
| 2022 | 30 | MLB | New York Mets | 55 | 0 | 50 | 216 | 57 | 25 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 26.4% | 11.6% | 14.8% | 1.4% | 4.47 | 3.10 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 31 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 0 | 22 | 100 | 29 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.5% | 11.8% | 15.7% | 3.9% | 4.84 | 4.40 | +0.0 |
| 2023 | 31 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 0 | 22 | 100 | 29 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.0% | 9.0% | 20.0% | 3.0% | 4.84 | 3.46 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 0 | 28 | 127 | 25 | 10 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.5% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 3.2% | 3.86 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 0 | 28 | 127 | 25 | 10 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.7% | 7.9% | 11.8% | 3.1% | 3.86 | 4.24 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 34 | MLB | BOS | 142 | 0 | 149 | 630 | 137 | 56 | 19 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.8% | 8.9% | 12.8% | 3.0% | 4.36 | 4.45 | +1.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | BOS | 128 | 0 | 134 | 566 | 118 | 54 | 19 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 11.3% | 3.4% | 4.61 | 4.78 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | BOS | 113 | 0 | 119 | 501 | 99 | 50 | 19 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.8% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 3.8% | 4.93 | 5.15 | +0.3 |
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | BOS | 7 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 11.3% | 3.4% | 4.61 | 4.78 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 19.8% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 3.8% | 4.93 | 5.15 | — |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 189 | 0 | 178 | 794 | 178 | 73 | 17 | 0% | 0.9 | 22.5% | 9.2% | 13.3% | 2.1% | 4.79 | 3.54 | +3.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 212 | 0 | 200 | 892 | 200 | 82 | 19 | 0% | 0.9 | 22.5% | 9.2% | 13.3% | 2.1% | 4.79 | 3.54 | +4.3 | ||
| Career | — | 347 | 22 | 479 | 2111 | 378 | 206 | 42 | 6% | 1.4 | 17.9% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 2.0% | 4.70 | 3.92 | +8.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 145 | 9 | 200 | 882 | 158 | 86 | 18 | 6% | 1.4 | 17.9% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 2.0% | 4.70 | 3.92 | +3.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Joely Rodríguez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.45 | 21.8% | 8.9% | 3.0% | — | 4.95 | 20.3% | 10.6% | 253 | +0.50 | — | — | — |
| Neal Cotts L 2027 · 4.65 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.65 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 4.4% | .257 | 4.01 | 21.9% | 14.5% | 93 | -0.64 | 3.24 | 156 | 63 |
| Cesár Ramos L 2025 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.17 | 16.7% | 8.3% | 2.6% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 225 | 63 |
| Craig Breslow L 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.86 | 16.4% | 6.4% | 4.2% | .279 | 4.51 | 16.2% | 6.5% | 94 | -0.35 | 4.22 | 159 | 62 |
| Tony Watson L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.53 | 17.7% | 4.8% | 4.2% | .276 | 3.68 | 19.8% | 13.1% | 75 | -0.85 | 2.22 | 405 | 59 |
| Alejandro Soto L 2025 · 3.97 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.97 | 17.1% | 6.9% | 2.6% | .376 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 280 | 56 |
| Jerry Blevins L 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.43 | 21.8% | 11.2% | 3.2% | .250 | 4.09 | 26.2% | 16.3% | 32 | -0.34 | 2.72 | 166 | 55 |
| Wei-Yin Chen L 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.87 | 20.5% | 5.2% | 5.2% | .338 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 549 | 55 |
| Tony Sipp L 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.69 | 23.6% | 8.5% | 4.6% | .269 | 2.57 | 24.9% | 15.9% | 60 | -2.12 | 2.18 | 195 | 54 |
| Manny Parra L 2027 · 3.34 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.34 | 18.4% | 10.3% | 0.9% | .351 | 2.43 | 17.3% | 11.0% | 27 | -0.91 | 2.43 | 114 | 54 |
| Blaine Hardy L 2026 · 5.38 FIP | 34 | SW | 5.38 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 4.7% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.76 | 417 | 54 |
| Brandon Mann L 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.60 | 17.8% | 11.4% | 1.0% | .232 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.60 | 190 | 52 |
| Andrew Miller L 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.56 | 29.7% | 11.0% | 4.7% | .264 | 3.33 | 25.6% | 16.5% | 49 | -1.23 | 1.34 | 336 | 52 |
| Colt Hynes L 2024 · 3.52 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.52 | 14.1% | 4.6% | 1.9% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 152 | 51 |
| Sean Doolittle L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.04 | 23.8% | 9.0% | 3.3% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.39 | 259 | 50 |
| Heriberto Ruelas L 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.89 | 15.0% | 8.9% | 1.7% | .310 | 3.56 | 17.2% | 10.5% | 49 | -0.33 | 3.05 | 117 | 50 |
| Adam Loewen L 2025 · 4.13 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.13 | 23.4% | 17.4% | 1.5% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 176 | 50 |
| Mike Dunn L 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.67 | 20.0% | 8.0% | 4.1% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.72 | 181 | 48 |
| Luke Westphal L 2025 · 4.18 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.18 | 24.2% | 13.4% | 2.6% | .302 | 5.42 | 16.1% | -3.1% | 26 | +1.24 | 2.97 | 294 | 46 |
| Ryan Buchter L 2026 · 5.07 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.07 | 22.9% | 13.2% | 4.1% | .267 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.37 | 296 | 46 |
| Oliver Pérez L 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.36 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .296 | 2.53 | 29.1% | 23.7% | 120 | -0.83 | 1.56 | 219 | 46 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 134 | 20.9% | 9.5% | 1.30 | 4.61 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |
| Félix Hernández ('19) | 5 | 134 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 1.39 | 4.48 |
| Jason Vargas ('19) | 4 | 116 | 18.5% | 8.2% | 1.38 | 4.57 |
| Marco Estrada ('19) | 5 | 142 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.44 | 4.33 |