Joely Rodríguez

Joely Rodríguez P Boston Red Sox

Age 34 LHP 6'1" / 223 lbs MLB peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 12 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 101109vR 117

ERA4.35

FIP4.43

K%21.7%

BB%8.7%

K-BB%13.0%

ROS IP12

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 12 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4040

CMD5050

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1090.0

Whiff%

p1220.0%

p2718.8%

xwOBA vs

p280.338

SI (49%)

FB (46%)

SL (15%)

CH-3.2 (39%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	21	129	584	74	55	11	66%	4.0	10.7%	10.1%	0.6%	2.3%	6.12	4.72	—
2015	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	21	129	584	74	55	11	66%	4.0	12.7%	9.4%	3.3%	1.9%	6.12	4.34	—
2016	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	65	0	86	343	76	25	3	0%	1.3	17.8%	8.3%	9.5%	1.0%	2.40	3.21	+1.4
2016	24	MIX RAW	4 levels	65	0	86	343	76	25	3	0%	1.3	22.2%	7.3%	14.9%	0.9%	2.40	2.66	+2.0
2017	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	54	263	39	30	10	0%	1.1	13.9%	11.7%	2.1%	3.7%	6.33	5.43	-0.6
2017	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	0	54	263	39	30	10	0%	1.1	14.8%	11.4%	3.4%	3.8%	6.33	5.73	-0.7
2018	26	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	33	1	49	219	52	18	1	3%	1.5	20.9%	8.6%	12.3%	0.5%	4.56	2.71	—
2018	26	AAA RAW	Norfolk Tides	33	1	49	219	52	18	1	3%	1.5	23.7%	8.2%	15.5%	0.5%	4.56	2.35	—
2020	28	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	12	0	13	52	17	5	0	0%	1.1	32.7%	9.6%	23.1%	0.0%	2.13	1.56	+0.5
2020	28	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	12	0	13	52	17	5	0	0%	1.1	32.7%	9.6%	23.1%	0.0%	2.13	1.60	+0.5
2021	29	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	52	0	46	207	47	17	4	0%	0.9	22.7%	8.2%	14.5%	1.8%	4.66	3.22	+0.7
2021	29	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	52	0	46	207	47	17	4	0%	0.9	22.7%	8.2%	14.5%	1.9%	4.66	3.29	+0.7
2022	30	MLB MLE	New York Mets	55	0	50	216	57	25	3	0%	0.9	26.4%	11.6%	14.8%	1.4%	4.47	3.10	+0.9
2022	30	MLB RAW	New York Mets	55	0	50	216	57	25	3	0%	0.9	26.4%	11.6%	14.8%	1.4%	4.47	3.10	+0.9
2023	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	0	22	100	29	9	3	0%	1.0	27.5%	11.8%	15.7%	4.0%	4.84	4.48	+0.0
2023	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	0	22	100	29	9	3	0%	1.0	27.5%	11.8%	15.7%	4.0%	4.84	4.48	+0.0
2023	31	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	0	22	100	29	9	3	0%	1.0	29.0%	9.0%	20.0%	3.0%	4.84	3.46	+0.3
2024	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	0	28	127	25	10	4	0%	1.0	17.9%	7.2%	10.7%	3.3%	3.86	4.31	+0.1
2024	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	0	28	127	25	10	4	0%	1.0	17.9%	7.2%	10.7%	3.3%	3.86	4.31	+0.1
2024	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	0	28	127	25	10	4	0%	1.0	19.7%	7.9%	11.8%	3.1%	3.86	4.24	+0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			182	0	171	763	172	70	16	0%	0.9	22.5%	9.2%	13.4%	2.1%	4.80	3.53	+2.1
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	34	MLB	BOS	11	0	12	51	11	4	2	0%	1.1	21.7%	8.7%	13.0%	3.1%	4.35	4.43	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	35	MLB MLE	BOS	128	0	134	566	117	52	19	0%	1.0	20.7%	9.3%	11.4%	3.4%	4.60	4.77	-0.3
2028	36	MLB MLE	BOS	113	0	119	501	99	49	19	0%	1.0	19.7%	9.9%	9.8%	3.8%	4.92	5.14	-0.8
2027	35	MLB CTX	BOS	7	0	7	30	6	3	1	0%	1.0	20.7%	9.3%	11.4%	3.4%	4.60	4.77	-0.0
2028	36	MLB CTX	BOS	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.7%	9.9%	9.8%	3.8%	4.92	5.14	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		189	0	178	794	178	73	17	0%	0.9	22.5%	9.2%	13.3%	2.1%	4.79	3.54	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		212	0	200	892	200	82	19	0%	0.9	22.5%	9.2%	13.3%	2.1%	4.79	3.54	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		347	22	479	2111	377	205	43	6%	1.4	17.9%	9.7%	8.1%	2.0%	4.70	3.93	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		145	9	200	882	157	86	18	6%	1.4	17.9%	9.7%	8.1%	2.0%	4.70	3.93	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joely Rodríguez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.43	21.7%	8.7%	3.1%	—	4.94	20.2%	10.7%	253	+0.51	—	—	—
Neal Cotts L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	35	SU	4.66	21.6%	7.4%	4.4%	.257	3.77	21.9%	14.5%	93	-0.89	3.21	156	63
Cesár Ramos L 2017 · 4.23 FIP	33	SW	4.23	16.7%	8.3%	2.7%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	225	63
Craig Breslow L 2015 · 4.94 FIP	34	SU	4.94	16.4%	6.4%	4.4%	.279	4.42	16.2%	6.5%	94	-0.52	4.22	159	62
Brian Duensing L 2017 · 3.26 FIP	34	SU	3.26	23.7%	6.6%	2.4%	.301	5.80	11.7%	-0.7%	51	+2.54	2.57	198	59
Alejandro Soto L 2019 · 4.03 FIP	33	SW	4.03	17.1%	6.9%	2.7%	.376	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	280	56
Tony Watson L 2019 · 4.52 FIP	34	SU	4.52	17.7%	4.8%	4.2%	.276	3.67	19.8%	13.1%	75	-0.85	2.21	405	55
Jerry Blevins L 2018 · 4.43 FIP	34	SU	4.43	21.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.250	4.09	26.2%	16.3%	32	-0.34	2.71	166	54
Manny Parra L 2018 · 3.33 FIP	35	SU	3.33	18.4%	10.3%	0.9%	.351	2.43	17.3%	11.0%	27	-0.90	2.43	114	54
Blaine Hardy L 2021 · 5.14 FIP	34	SW	5.14	19.5%	10.5%	4.3%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	2.74	417	54
Tony Sipp L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	34	SU	4.92	23.6%	8.5%	5.0%	.269	2.59	24.9%	15.9%	60	-2.33	2.22	195	53
Colt Hynes L 2017 · 3.75 FIP	32	SW	3.75	14.1%	4.6%	2.3%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	152	52
Tommy Layne L 2019 · 5.60 FIP	34	SU	5.60	18.4%	10.1%	5.1%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	1.32	182	52
Brandon Mann L 2018 · 3.59 FIP	34	SU	3.59	17.8%	11.4%	1.0%	.232	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	190	52
Rich Hill L 2015 · 3.27 FIP	35	SW	3.27	26.8%	10.9%	1.9%	.239	3.07	29.0%	21.2%	379	-0.20	2.05	1,030	51
Adam Loewen L 2017 · 4.22 FIP	33	SU	4.22	23.4%	17.4%	1.6%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	2.96	176	50
Heriberto Ruelas L 2016 · 3.75 FIP	34	SU	3.75	15.0%	8.9%	1.4%	.310	3.42	17.2%	10.5%	49	-0.33	2.95	117	50
Sean Doolittle L 2021 · 4.00 FIP	34	SU	4.00	23.8%	9.0%	3.2%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	1.39	259	50
Andrew Miller L 2019 · 4.74 FIP	34	SU	4.74	29.7%	11.0%	5.0%	.264	3.41	25.6%	16.5%	49	-1.33	1.34	336	48
Wei-Yin Chen L 2019 · 4.85 FIP	34	SU	4.85	20.5%	5.2%	5.1%	.338	—	—	—	—	—	3.68	549	47
Mike Dunn L 2019 · 5.02 FIP	34	SU	5.02	20.0%	8.0%	4.7%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	3.71	181	46

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	134	20.8%	9.2%	1.31	4.60
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Kutter Crawford ('24)	2.0	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Kyle Wright ('23)	1.2	83	22.4%	8.9%	1.12	3.97