Joely Rodríguez
P
Boston Red Sox
+0.1
WAR
Age 34
LHP
6'1" / 223 lbs
MLB
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA5.13
FIP4.42
xFIP3.06
SIERA2.87
K%22.3%
BB%8.8%
K-BB%13.5%
IP18
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
STUF5555
CTRL4040
CMD5050
K†5050
FB Velo
p1090.0
Whiff%
p1220.0%
K%
p2718.8%
xwOBA vs
p280.338
SI (49%)
FB (46%)
SL (15%)
CH-3.2 (39%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 23 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | 32 | 21 | 129 | 584 | 74 | 55 | 11 | 10.7% | 10.1% | 2.3% | 6.12 | 4.73 | +0.8 |
| 2016 | 24 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 65 | 0 | 86 | 343 | 76 | 25 | 3 | 17.8% | 8.3% | 1.0% | 2.40 | 3.20 | +1.9 |
| 2017 | 25 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 48 | 0 | 54 | 263 | 39 | 30 | 10 | 13.9% | 11.7% | 3.4% | 6.33 | 5.30 | -0.2 |
| 2018 | 26 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 33 | 1 | 49 | 219 | 52 | 18 | 1 | 20.9% | 8.6% | 0.5% | 4.56 | 2.72 | +1.2 |
| 2020 | 28 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 12 | 0 | 13 | 52 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 32.7% | 9.6% | 0.0% | 2.13 | 1.56 | +0.5 |
| 2021 | 29 | MLB | New York Yankees | 52 | 0 | 46 | 207 | 47 | 17 | 4 | 22.7% | 8.2% | 1.9% | 4.66 | 3.29 | +0.9 |
| 2022 | 30 | MLB | New York Mets | 55 | 0 | 50 | 216 | 57 | 25 | 3 | 26.4% | 11.6% | 1.4% | 4.47 | 3.12 | +1.0 |
| 2023 | 31 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 23 | 0 | 22 | 100 | 29 | 9 | 3 | 27.5% | 11.8% | 4.3% | 4.84 | 4.65 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 32 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 27 | 0 | 28 | 127 | 25 | 10 | 4 | 18.5% | 8.2% | 3.4% | 3.86 | 4.42 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 34 | MLB | BOS | 18 | — | 18 | 76 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 21.1% | 8.9% | 3.1% | 5.11 | 4.52 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | BOS | 20 | — | 20 | 84 | 17 | 8 | 3 | 20.3% | 9.2% | 3.2% | 4.85 | 4.67 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 347 | 22 | 479 | 2111 | 378 | 206 | 43 | 17.9% | 9.8% | 2.0% | 4.70 | 3.94 | +7.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 145 | 9 | 200 | 882 | 158 | 86 | 18 | 17.9% | 9.8% | 2.0% | 4.70 | 3.94 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Joely Rodríguez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.52 | 21.1% | 8.9% | 3.1% | — | 4.67 | 20.3% | 11.2% | 20 | +0.15 | — | — | — |
| Mike Dunn L 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.97 | 20.0% | 8.0% | 4.6% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 181 | 80 |
| Tony Sipp L 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.84 | 23.6% | 8.5% | 4.8% | .269 | 2.55 | 24.9% | 15.9% | 60 | -2.29 | 2.19 | 195 | 77 |
| Jerry Blevins L 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.48 | 21.8% | 11.2% | 3.3% | .250 | 3.98 | 26.2% | 16.3% | 32 | -0.50 | 2.66 | 166 | 76 |
| Francisley Bueno L 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.78 | 14.8% | 7.1% | 1.9% | .315 | 3.99 | 13.3% | 6.6% | 110 | +0.21 | 3.51 | 138 | 73 |
| Tommy Layne L 2026 · 5.59 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.59 | 18.4% | 10.1% | 5.0% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.32 | 182 | 73 |
| Boone Logan L 2025 · 5.22 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.22 | 24.1% | 12.1% | 4.8% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.64 | 113 | 73 |
| Neal Cotts L 2027 · 4.64 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.64 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 4.4% | .257 | 3.78 | 21.9% | 14.5% | 93 | -0.86 | 3.21 | 156 | 72 |
| Tony Watson L 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.57 | 17.7% | 4.8% | 4.3% | .276 | 3.54 | 19.8% | 13.1% | 75 | -1.03 | 2.22 | 405 | 72 |
| Ross Detwiler L 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.45 | 18.5% | 4.9% | 2.3% | .283 | 4.23 | 25.7% | 18.0% | 79 | +0.78 | 3.45 | 512 | 70 |
| Heriberto Ruelas L 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.75 | 15.0% | 8.9% | 1.4% | .310 | 3.42 | 17.2% | 10.5% | 49 | -0.33 | 2.97 | 117 | 69 |
| Craig Breslow L 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 34 | SW | 5.04 | 16.4% | 6.4% | 4.6% | .279 | 4.48 | 16.2% | 6.5% | 94 | -0.56 | 4.28 | 159 | 69 |
| Dan Runzler L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.83 | 16.0% | 13.0% | 2.6% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.78 | 127 | 68 |
| Ryan Buchter L 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.02 | 22.9% | 13.2% | 4.0% | .267 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.37 | 296 | 66 |
| Vidal Nuño L 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.89 | 16.0% | 4.9% | 4.6% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.10 | 424 | 66 |
| Colt Hynes L 2024 · 3.79 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.79 | 14.1% | 4.6% | 2.4% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 152 | 66 |
| Alejandro Soto L 2025 · 4.03 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.03 | 17.1% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .376 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 280 | 65 |
| Manny Parra L 2027 · 3.33 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.33 | 18.4% | 10.3% | 0.9% | .351 | 2.43 | 17.3% | 11.0% | 27 | -0.90 | 2.43 | 114 | 65 |
| Blaine Hardy L 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 34 | SW | 5.10 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 4.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.75 | 417 | 64 |
| Dana Eveland L 2025 · 4.68 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.68 | 14.7% | 4.7% | 4.0% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.42 | 129 | 64 |
| Sean Doolittle L 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.02 | 23.8% | 9.0% | 3.3% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.42 | 259 | 63 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.