Joely Rodríguez

P Boston Red Sox

Age 35 LHP 6'1" / 223 lbs MLB peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	30	MLBNYM	55	0	50	4.47	3.10	26.4%	11.6%	0.9
2023	31	MIX3 levels	23	0	22	4.84	3.46	29.0%	9.0%	0.3	K 27.5% · BB 11.8% · FIP 4.48
2024	32	MIX2 levels	27	0	28	3.86	4.24	19.7%	7.9%	0.1	K 18.3% · BB 7.2% · FIP 4.28
2025	33	No MLB games played
2026	34	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	35	MLBBOS	14	0	15	4.29	4.39	22.3%	9.0%	0.0
2028PROJMLE	36	MLBBOS	1	0	1	4.57	4.76	21.2%	9.6%	-0.0
2029PROJMLE	37	MLBBOS	—	—	0	4.92	5.16	20.2%	10.3%	—

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.3 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024

xwOBA vs28

K%27

FB Velo10

CompsHisanori Takahashi (age 35) · Heriberto Ruelas (age 35) · Brian Shouse (age 35)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 100108vR 117

ERA4.29

FIP4.39

K%22.3%

BB%9.0%

K-BB%13.2%

Proj IP149

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 149 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4040

CMD5050

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1090.0

Whiff%

p1220.0%

p2718.8%

xwOBA vs

p280.338

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	21	129	584	74	55	11	66%	4.0	10.7%	10.1%	0.6%	2.3%	6.12	4.72	—
2015	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	21	129	584	74	55	11	66%	4.0	12.7%	9.4%	3.3%	1.9%	6.12	4.34	—
2016	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	65	0	86	343	76	25	3	0%	1.3	17.8%	8.3%	9.5%	1.0%	2.40	3.21	+1.4
2016	24	MIX RAW	4 levels	65	0	86	343	76	25	3	0%	1.3	22.2%	7.3%	14.9%	0.9%	2.40	2.66	+2.0
2017	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	54	263	39	30	10	0%	1.1	13.9%	11.7%	2.1%	3.7%	6.33	5.43	-0.6
2017	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	0	54	263	39	30	10	0%	1.1	14.8%	11.4%	3.4%	3.8%	6.33	5.73	-0.7
2018	26	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	33	1	49	219	52	18	1	3%	1.5	20.9%	8.6%	12.3%	0.5%	4.56	2.71	—
2018	26	AAA RAW	Norfolk Tides	33	1	49	219	52	18	1	3%	1.5	23.7%	8.2%	15.5%	0.5%	4.56	2.35	—
2020	28	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	12	0	13	52	17	5	0	0%	1.1	32.7%	9.6%	23.1%	0.0%	2.13	1.56	+0.5
2020	28	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	12	0	13	52	17	5	0	0%	1.1	32.7%	9.6%	23.1%	0.0%	2.13	1.60	+0.5
2021	29	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	52	0	46	207	47	17	4	0%	0.9	22.7%	8.2%	14.5%	1.8%	4.66	3.22	+0.7
2021	29	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	52	0	46	207	47	17	4	0%	0.9	22.7%	8.2%	14.5%	1.9%	4.66	3.29	+0.7
2022	30	MLB MLE	New York Mets	55	0	50	216	57	25	3	0%	0.9	26.4%	11.6%	14.8%	1.4%	4.47	3.10	+0.9
2022	30	MLB RAW	New York Mets	55	0	50	216	57	25	3	0%	0.9	26.4%	11.6%	14.8%	1.4%	4.47	3.10	+0.9
2023	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	0	22	100	29	9	3	0%	1.0	27.5%	11.8%	15.7%	4.0%	4.84	4.48	+0.0
2023	31	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	0	22	100	29	9	3	0%	1.0	29.0%	9.0%	20.0%	3.0%	4.84	3.46	+0.3
2024	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	0	28	127	25	10	4	0%	1.0	18.3%	7.2%	11.0%	3.3%	3.86	4.28	+0.1
2024	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	0	28	127	25	10	4	0%	1.0	18.3%	7.2%	11.0%	3.3%	3.86	4.28	+0.1
2024	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	0	28	127	25	10	4	0%	1.0	19.7%	7.9%	11.8%	3.1%	3.86	4.24	+0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			182	0	171	763	172	70	16	0%	0.9	22.5%	9.2%	13.4%	2.1%	4.80	3.53	+2.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	35	MLB	BOS	14	0	15	63	14	6	2	0%	1.1	22.3%	9.0%	13.2%	3.0%	4.29	4.39	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	36	MLB MLE	BOS	99	0	104	440	93	42	15	0%	1.1	21.2%	9.6%	11.6%	3.4%	4.57	4.76	-0.3
2029	37	MLB MLE	BOS	73	0	76	322	65	33	12	0%	1.0	20.2%	10.3%	9.9%	3.8%	4.92	5.16	-0.5
2028	36	MLB CTX	BOS	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	21.2%	9.6%	11.6%	3.4%	4.57	4.76	-0.0
2029	37	MLB CTX	BOS	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.2%	10.3%	9.9%	3.8%	4.92	5.16	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		183	0	172	767	173	70	16	0%	0.9	22.5%	9.2%	13.4%	2.1%	4.80	3.51	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		213	0	200	894	202	82	19	0%	0.9	22.5%	9.2%	13.4%	2.1%	4.80	3.51	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		347	22	479	2111	377	205	43	6%	1.4	17.9%	9.7%	8.2%	2.0%	4.70	3.93	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		145	9	200	882	158	86	18	6%	1.4	17.9%	9.7%	8.2%	2.0%	4.70	3.93	+0.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 14 IPFIP 3.84 → 4.01 (+0.17)K% 20.6% → 17.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.63%	—	×0.860	17.75%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.70%	—	×0.900	11.43%
HR / BF /BF	1.59%	÷0.996	×1.100	1.75%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 99).

Result: FIP 3.84 → 4.01, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 6 IPFIP 0.92 → 1.24 (+0.32)K% 31.0% → 26.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.03%	—	×0.860	26.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.45%	—	×0.900	3.10%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.008	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 0.92 → 1.24, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 5 IPFIP 4.58 → 5.58 (+1.01)K% 30.0% → 24.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.00%	—	×0.810	24.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.00%	—	×1.100	11.00%
HR / BF /BF	5.00%	÷1.048	×1.200	5.72%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 110).

Result: FIP 4.58 → 5.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAANorfolk Tides · 49 IPFIP 2.39 → 2.71 (+0.33)K% 23.7% → 20.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.74%	—	×0.880	20.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.22%	—	×1.050	8.63%
HR / BF /BF	0.46%	÷0.964	×1.100	0.52%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 93).

Result: FIP 2.39 → 2.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAARound Rock Express · 27 IPFIP 6.05 → 6.26 (+0.21)K% 16.3% → 14.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.28%	—	×0.880	14.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.95%	—	×1.050	14.65%
HR / BF /BF	4.65%	÷1.117	×1.100	4.58%

Result: FIP 6.05 → 6.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAReading Fightin Phils · 49 IPFIP 3.14 → 3.52 (+0.38)K% 20.7% → 16.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.71%	—	×0.810	16.77%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.58%	—	×1.100	8.33%
HR / BF /BF	1.52%	÷1.273	×1.200	1.43%

Result: FIP 3.14 → 3.52, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 19 IPFIP 2.11 → 2.40 (+0.29)K% 23.4% → 20.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.38%	—	×0.880	20.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.79%	—	×1.050	8.18%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.942	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.11 → 2.40, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 A+Clearwater Threshers · 8 IPFIP 0.62 → 1.36 (+0.74)K% 34.5% → 26.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.48%	—	×0.770	26.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.45%	—	×1.150	3.97%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.964	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 93).

Result: FIP 0.62 → 1.36, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joely Rodríguez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.39	22.3%	9.0%	3.0%	—	4.93	20.8%	10.9%	180	+0.54	—	—	—
Hisanori Takahashi L 2010 · 3.50 FIP	35	SW	3.50	22.1%	7.0%	2.5%	.292	3.81	21.1%	15.0%	118	+0.31	3.50	240	73
Heriberto Ruelas L 2017 · 3.42 FIP	35	SU	3.42	17.2%	6.7%	1.7%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	117	56
Brian Shouse L 2004 · 3.47 FIP	35	SU	3.47	18.5%	8.2%	1.6%	.250	3.57	14.8%	8.9%	139	+0.10	2.32	339	54
Tim Byrdak L 2009 · 5.07 FIP	35	SU	5.07	22.2%	13.8%	3.8%	.185	3.48	23.8%	13.5%	107	-1.59	2.85	320	52
Brandon Mann L 2018 · 3.59 FIP	34	SU	3.59	17.8%	11.4%	1.0%	.232	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	190	52
Juan Pablo Perez L 2013 · 3.68 FIP	34	SU	3.68	25.2%	11.5%	2.3%	.250	3.68	26.5%	11.2%	51	-0.00	1.75	104	50
Clay Rapada L 2015 · 3.84 FIP	34	SU	3.84	14.3%	8.0%	1.7%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	120	50
Hideki Okajima L 2010 · 4.27 FIP	34	SU	4.27	15.5%	7.0%	2.9%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	238	49
Raul Valdes L 2013 · 4.07 FIP	35	SU	4.07	24.3%	5.3%	4.3%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	160	48
John Bale L 2009 · 4.31 FIP	35	SU	4.31	17.6%	11.8%	2.2%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	168	46
Scott Rice L 2015 · 3.67 FIP	33	SU	3.67	22.9%	17.2%	0.6%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	104	40
Jean Machi R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	35	SU	4.12	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	2.16	306	33
Luke Westphal L 2024 · 5.19 FIP	35	SW	5.19	15.7%	16.4%	2.4%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	2.97	294	32
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	31
Brendan Donnelly R 2006 · 4.21 FIP	35	SU	4.21	19.1%	9.0%	2.9%	.260	3.19	18.6%	10.1%	60	-1.02	2.23	385	31
Spencer Patton R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	35	SU	4.33	18.9%	9.7%	2.9%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	2.79	239	30
Juan Sandoval R 2016 · 3.24 FIP	35	SU	3.24	18.2%	10.2%	0.7%	.288	4.40	16.3%	9.1%	116	+1.16	3.24	225	29
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	27
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	27
Tiago Da Silva R 2019 · 3.95 FIP	34	SW	3.95	15.0%	7.2%	2.2%	.365	—	—	—	—	—	2.21	287	27

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	83	21.8%	9.7%	1.11	4.62
Mike Hartley ('89-'95, 2 WAR*)	1.6	80	24.3%*	9.9%*	1.09*	4.09*
Steve Wilson ('88-'93, 0 WAR*)	1.7	69	21.6%*	8.8%*	1.25*	4.84*
Butch Metzger ('74-'78, 0 WAR*)	1.5	98	19.8%*	10.7%*	1.09*	4.50*
Bobby Ayala ('99)	2.9	72	21.3%	9.7%	1.11	4.78
Carlos Torres ('19)	2.5	72	20.7%	8.9%	1.12	4.09
Hisanori Takahashi ('13)	1.2	81	21.6%	8.2%	1.07	3.99