Tyler Schmitt

P Lake Elsinore Storm

Age 22 RHP 6'3" / 200 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.7 · 2030

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#581ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	21	ASD	23	20	98	4.76	3.81	24.4%	12.7%	—	K 18.1% · BB 15.0% · FIP 4.95
2027PROJ	22	MLBSD	—	—	0	5.29	5.29	19.3%	14.4%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBSD	7	7	36	5.07	4.96	20.5%	12.5%	0.2
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBSD	9	9	51	4.85	4.73	21.2%	11.2%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 2.1, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 93%

CompsKhristian Curtis (age 22) · Max Bain (age 23) · J.P. Massey (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 117

ERA5.29

FIP5.29

K%19.3%

BB%14.4%

K-BB%4.9%

Proj IP69

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$24M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.5M
2035	Arb-1	$0.6M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.2M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	21	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	23	20	98	434	106	55	9	87%	4.3	18.1%	15.0%	3.1%	2.7%	4.76	4.95	—
2026	21	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	23	20	98	434	106	55	9	87%	4.3	18.1%	15.0%	3.1%	2.7%	4.76	4.95	—
2026	21	A RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	23	20	98	434	106	55	9	87%	4.3	24.4%	12.7%	11.8%	2.1%	4.76	3.81	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	SD	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.3%	14.4%	4.9%	2.9%	5.29	5.29	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	SD	14	14	72	306	63	38	9	100%	5.2	20.5%	12.5%	8.0%	2.9%	5.03	4.92	+0.4
2029	24	MLB MLE	SD	13	13	72	306	65	34	9	100%	5.6	21.2%	11.2%	10.0%	2.9%	4.81	4.69	+0.6
2030	25	MLB MLE	SD	11	11	66	277	60	29	8	100%	6.0	21.7%	10.5%	11.2%	2.9%	4.65	4.55	+0.6
2031	26	MLB MLE	SD	11	11	65	276	60	29	8	100%	5.9	21.9%	10.4%	11.5%	2.9%	4.57	4.52	+0.7
2032	27	MLB MLE	SD	11	11	64	269	59	28	8	100%	5.8	21.9%	10.4%	11.4%	2.9%	4.56	4.56	+0.6
2033	28	MLB MLE	SD	10	10	61	256	56	27	8	100%	6.1	21.7%	10.6%	11.1%	3.0%	4.61	4.64	+0.5
2034	29	MLB MLE	SD	9	9	56	237	51	26	8	100%	6.2	21.5%	10.8%	10.7%	3.2%	4.71	4.77	+0.4
2035	30	MLB MLE	SD	8	8	51	215	46	24	7	100%	6.4	21.1%	11.1%	10.0%	3.4%	4.86	4.95	+0.3
2028	23	MLB CTX	SD	7	7	36	152	31	19	5	100%	5.1	20.5%	12.5%	8.0%	3.0%	5.07	4.96	+0.2
2029	24	MLB CTX	SD	9	9	51	215	46	24	6	100%	5.7	21.2%	11.2%	10.0%	2.9%	4.85	4.73	+0.4
2030	25	MLB CTX	SD	9	9	53	224	48	23	7	100%	5.9	21.7%	10.5%	11.2%	2.9%	4.69	4.59	+0.5
2031	26	MLB CTX	SD	10	10	57	241	53	25	7	100%	5.7	21.9%	10.4%	11.5%	2.9%	4.61	4.56	+0.6
2032	27	MLB CTX	SD	10	10	57	241	53	25	7	100%	5.7	21.9%	10.4%	11.4%	3.0%	4.60	4.60	+0.6
2033	28	MLB CTX	SD	9	9	56	236	51	25	7	100%	6.2	21.7%	10.6%	11.1%	3.1%	4.65	4.68	+0.5
2034	29	MLB CTX	SD	9	9	52	220	47	24	7	100%	5.8	21.5%	10.8%	10.7%	3.3%	4.75	4.81	+0.4
2035	30	MLB CTX	SD	8	8	48	203	43	23	7	100%	6.0	21.1%	11.1%	10.0%	3.5%	4.91	5.00	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		70	70	410	1731	372	188	53	100%	5.9	21.5%	10.9%	10.6%	3.1%	4.75	4.35	+5.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	181	92	26	100%	5.9	21.5%	10.9%	10.6%	3.1%	4.75	4.35	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		23	20	98	434	78	65	12	87%	4.3	18.1%	15.0%	3.1%	2.7%	4.76	4.95	+4.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	41	200	883	160	132	24	87%	4.3	18.1%	15.0%	3.1%	2.7%	4.76	4.95	+1.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ALake Elsinore Storm · 98 IPFIP 3.78 → 4.95 (+1.17)K% 24.4% → 18.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.42%	—	×0.740	18.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.67%	—	×1.180	14.95%
HR / BF /BF	2.07%	÷1.000	×1.300	2.70%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.78 → 4.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tyler Schmitt (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.29	19.3%	14.4%	2.9%	—	4.73	21.1%	9.7%	211	-0.56	—	—	—
Khristian Curtis R 2024 · 5.48 FIP	22	SP	5.48	18.8%	14.4%	3.9%	.275	4.62	20.6%	8.4%	216	-0.86	4.60	291	90
Max Bain R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	23	SP	5.21	20.5%	15.2%	3.5%	.291	6.70	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.49	5.21	174	88
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	88
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	87
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.90	22.5%	6.9%	260	-0.04	4.14	414	86
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.4%	8.5%	211	-0.23	3.28	265	86
Frank German R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	21	SP	5.01	19.5%	12.4%	3.6%	.308	4.56	18.9%	9.4%	123	-0.45	3.10	218	86
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	85
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	452	85
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	85
Kyle Bradish R 2019 · 4.56 FIP	22	SP-	4.56	20.8%	13.7%	2.7%	.309	3.84	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.72	2.20	750	85
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.18	457	85
Reid Schaller R 2019 · 5.18 FIP	22	SP	5.18	16.3%	13.8%	3.1%	.241	4.40	19.9%	7.9%	87	-0.78	3.61	186	85
Jacob Watters R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	22	SP	4.87	18.3%	17.1%	2.1%	.319	4.38	17.0%	5.1%	81	-0.49	3.85	165	85
Tyler Skulina R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	23	SP	4.28	18.3%	11.6%	2.3%	.242	5.34	13.0%	-1.0%	147	+1.06	4.28	222	84
Chris McElvain R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	5.24	15.8%	4.7%	198	+0.48	4.07	294	84
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	84
Jeremy Lee R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP-	4.17	16.8%	11.5%	1.9%	.318	5.21	11.2%	-0.5%	46	+1.04	4.17	125	84
Aaron Davenport R 2022 · 4.81 FIP	22	SP	4.81	20.0%	13.2%	3.2%	.280	4.94	16.9%	5.6%	391	+0.13	4.04	498	84
Michael YaSenka R 2021 · 5.98 FIP	23	SP	5.98	18.1%	15.0%	4.6%	.288	5.95	18.8%	6.1%	58	-0.03	5.95	154	84

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	64	21.2%	11.4%	1.15	4.80
Jorge Julio ('09)	2.3	58	21.7%	11.3%	1.25	4.43
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.6	51	21.6%	10.5%	1.24	4.71
Curt Leskanic ('04)	3.6	65	20.6%	11.6%	1.01	4.36
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Jerry Don Gleaton ('79-'92, 2 WAR*)	2.2	64	19.4%*	10.2%*	1.05*	4.44*