Tyler Schmitt
P
Lake Elsinore Storm
Age 21
RHP
6'3" / 200 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.7 · 2029
2026 ROS PROJECTION65 act + 35 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118109vR 100
ERA4.37
FIP4.37
K%23.1%
BB%9.5%
K-BB%13.6%
ROS IP35
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 100 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | 15 | 14 | 65 | 281 | 70 | 32 | 6 | 93% | 4.4 | 18.4% | 13.4% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 4.41 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | SD | 7 | 7 | 35 | 147 | 34 | 14 | 4 | 100% | 5.0 | 23.1% | 9.5% | 13.6% | 3.0% | 4.37 | 4.37 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | SD | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.1% | 9.5% | 13.6% | 2.9% | 4.31 | 4.31 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 21 | MLB | SD | — | — | 100 | 428 | 104 | 46 | 10 | — | — | 24.3% | 10.7% | 13.6% | 2.4% | 4.39 | 4.63 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | SD | 7 | 7 | 36 | 154 | 37 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 5.2 | 24.0% | 8.9% | 15.2% | 2.9% | 4.26 | 4.18 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | SD | 7 | 7 | 38 | 160 | 39 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 5.4 | 24.7% | 8.5% | 16.2% | 2.9% | 4.15 | 4.06 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | SD | 7 | 7 | 39 | 163 | 41 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 5.5 | 25.2% | 8.3% | 16.9% | 2.9% | 4.05 | 3.98 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | SD | 7 | 7 | 39 | 166 | 42 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 5.6 | 25.5% | 8.2% | 17.3% | 2.9% | 3.98 | 3.93 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | SD | 7 | 7 | 39 | 166 | 43 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 5.6 | 25.7% | 8.2% | 17.6% | 2.9% | 3.94 | 3.91 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | SD | 6 | 6 | 39 | 163 | 42 | 13 | 5 | 100% | 6.4 | 25.7% | 8.2% | 17.5% | 2.9% | 3.95 | 3.95 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | SD | 6 | 6 | 37 | 158 | 40 | 13 | 5 | 100% | 6.2 | 25.6% | 8.4% | 17.2% | 3.0% | 4.00 | 4.03 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | SD | 4 | 4 | 18 | 76 | 18 | 7 | 2 | 100% | 4.5 | 24.0% | 8.9% | 15.2% | 2.8% | 4.20 | 4.12 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | SD | 5 | 5 | 28 | 118 | 29 | 10 | 3 | 100% | 5.6 | 24.7% | 8.5% | 16.2% | 2.8% | 4.09 | 4.00 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | SD | 6 | 6 | 32 | 135 | 34 | 11 | 4 | 100% | 5.3 | 25.2% | 8.3% | 16.9% | 2.8% | 3.99 | 3.92 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | SD | 6 | 6 | 35 | 148 | 38 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 5.8 | 25.5% | 8.2% | 17.3% | 2.8% | 3.93 | 3.88 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | SD | 6 | 6 | 36 | 152 | 39 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.7% | 8.2% | 17.6% | 2.8% | 3.89 | 3.86 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | SD | 6 | 6 | 36 | 152 | 39 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.7% | 8.2% | 17.5% | 2.8% | 3.89 | 3.89 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | SD | 6 | 6 | 35 | 148 | 38 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 5.8 | 25.6% | 8.4% | 17.2% | 2.9% | 3.94 | 3.97 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 38 | 38 | 219 | 923 | 234 | 77 | 26 | 100% | 5.8 | 25.3% | 8.3% | 17.0% | 2.8% | 3.97 | 3.56 | +4.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 844 | 214 | 70 | 24 | 100% | 5.7 | 25.3% | 8.3% | 17.0% | 2.8% | 3.97 | 3.56 | +4.3 | ||
| Career | — | 15 | 14 | 65 | 281 | 52 | 38 | 8 | 93% | 4.4 | 18.4% | 13.4% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 4.41 | 4.77 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 43 | 200 | 860 | 159 | 116 | 24 | 93% | 4.4 | 18.4% | 13.4% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 4.41 | 4.77 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tyler Schmitt (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.37 | 23.1% | 9.5% | 3.0% | — | 4.07 | 24.7% | 16.1% | 113 | -0.30 | — | — | — |
| Jimmy Joyce R 2027 · 3.67 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.67 | 25.0% | 9.0% | 2.8% | .341 | 3.99 | 20.4% | 9.7% | 242 | +0.32 | 3.44 | 259 | 88 |
| Bryce Cunningham R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.06 | 19.3% | 9.9% | 2.4% | .268 | 5.93 | 17.4% | 2.1% | 47 | +1.87 | 4.06 | 101 | 85 |
| Chad Patrick R 2028 · 3.92 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.92 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .315 | 4.36 | 22.3% | 13.8% | 422 | +0.44 | 3.76 | 537 | 85 |
| Dylan DeLucia R 2028 · 3.65 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.65 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 2.6% | .241 | 5.26 | 18.3% | 7.9% | 176 | +1.61 | 3.65 | 211 | 84 |
| Tanner Burns R 2027 · 4.07 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.07 | 22.2% | 10.6% | 2.8% | .292 | 5.42 | 19.5% | 6.0% | 244 | +1.35 | 4.07 | 378 | 84 |
| Cody Laweryson R 2028 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.23 | 21.7% | 8.4% | 3.5% | .329 | 3.55 | 21.5% | 12.4% | 178 | -0.68 | 2.49 | 298 | 84 |
| Jimmy Kingsbury R 2027 · 4.00 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.00 | 21.9% | 9.8% | 2.7% | .175 | 4.15 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 168 | +0.15 | 3.59 | 307 | 84 |
| JR Ritchie R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 21 | SP | 3.94 | 22.8% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .260 | 4.47 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 234 | +0.53 | 1.00 | 280 | 84 |
| Mike Vasil R 2027 · 3.71 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.71 | 21.9% | 10.5% | 2.0% | .264 | 4.60 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 359 | +0.89 | 3.71 | 429 | 83 |
| Curtis Taylor R 2027 · 4.10 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.10 | 19.3% | 9.9% | 2.5% | .305 | 3.42 | 23.5% | 13.7% | 96 | -0.68 | 2.58 | 408 | 83 |
| Drew Anderson R 2027 · 3.54 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.54 | 21.1% | 9.2% | 1.9% | .295 | 4.74 | 16.3% | 7.6% | 273 | +1.20 | 3.11 | 506 | 83 |
| Pat Gallagher R 2028 · 3.56 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.56 | 21.9% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .284 | 3.43 | 20.0% | 10.3% | 195 | -0.13 | 2.97 | 258 | 83 |
| Chih-Jung Liu R 2027 · 4.72 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.72 | 18.8% | 10.5% | 3.4% | .331 | 6.04 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 233 | +1.32 | 4.72 | 283 | 82 |
| Gabriel Hughes R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 21 | SP | 5.02 | 22.2% | 10.0% | 4.6% | .302 | 3.95 | 18.7% | 10.3% | 143 | -1.07 | 2.58 | 210 | 82 |
| José López R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.04 | 19.1% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .329 | 3.72 | 17.9% | 9.9% | 436 | -0.32 | 3.08 | 543 | 82 |
| Silvano Hechavarria R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.23 | 20.0% | 10.3% | 2.8% | .212 | 4.80 | 16.2% | 5.7% | 120 | +0.57 | 3.80 | 169 | 82 |
| Cody Stashak R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.07 | 19.7% | 7.5% | 3.1% | .304 | 3.55 | 17.1% | 9.8% | 261 | -0.52 | 1.99 | 467 | 81 |
| Ryan Garcia R 2029 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.87 | 23.2% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .239 | 5.71 | 20.0% | 6.1% | 278 | +1.84 | 3.87 | 325 | 80 |
| Carmen Mlodzinski R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.04 | 23.1% | 10.8% | 2.8% | .311 | 3.85 | 20.9% | 11.1% | 236 | -0.19 | 3.12 | 482 | 80 |
| Gabe Bierman R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.08 | 21.3% | 11.8% | 4.2% | .277 | 4.65 | 16.2% | 4.0% | 187 | -0.43 | 4.20 | 301 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 8 | 38 | 25.0% | 8.5% | 1.13 | 4.08 |
| Daniel Hudson ('24) | 9 | 52 | 25.5% | 8.9% | 1.13 | 3.75 |
| Trevor May ('23) | 8 | 51 | 27.6% | 8.3% | 1.18 | 3.83 |
| Ryan Tepera ('22) | 7 | 48 | 24.7% | 8.8% | 1.12 | 3.53 |
| Joakim Soria ('21) | 7 | 54 | 26.1% | 7.8% | 0.92 | 3.65 |
| Hansel Robles ('22) | 7 | 59 | 25.3% | 10.1% | 1.16 | 3.86 |
| Tyler Clippard ('21) | 7 | 54 | 25.9% | 9.0% | 1.29 | 3.47 |