Tyler Schmitt — OGILVIE

Tyler Schmitt P Lake Elsinore Storm

Age 21 RHP 6'3" / 200 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.6 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.91

FIP4.91

K%21.4%

BB%12.7%

K-BB%8.8%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$34M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2034	Arb-1	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.1M
2035	Arb-2	$3M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$5M		$8M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	23	20	98	434	106	55	9	87%	4.3	18.1%	15.0%	3.1%	2.7%	4.76	4.95	—
YTD	21	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	23	20	98	434	106	55	9	87%	4.3	18.1%	15.0%	3.1%	2.7%	4.76	4.95	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A RAW	SD	23	20	98	434	106	55	9	87%	4.3	24.4%	12.7%	11.8%	2.1%	4.76	3.78	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	SD	20	20	101	427	96	47	13	100%	5.1	22.4%	11.1%	11.3%	2.9%	4.70	4.60	+0.4
2028	23	MLB MLE	SD	20	20	105	443	102	45	13	100%	5.2	23.1%	10.1%	13.0%	2.9%	4.51	4.40	+0.6
2029	24	MLB MLE	SD	19	19	108	454	107	43	13	100%	5.7	23.6%	9.5%	14.1%	2.9%	4.36	4.26	+0.8
2030	25	MLB MLE	SD	19	19	109	459	110	42	13	100%	5.7	23.9%	9.2%	14.8%	2.9%	4.26	4.19	+0.9
2031	26	MLB MLE	SD	18	18	109	459	111	42	13	100%	6.0	24.1%	9.1%	15.0%	2.9%	4.20	4.16	+1.0
2032	27	MLB MLE	SD	18	18	107	453	109	42	13	100%	6.0	24.1%	9.2%	14.9%	2.9%	4.20	4.20	+0.9
2033	28	MLB MLE	SD	17	17	104	439	105	41	13	100%	6.1	24.0%	9.3%	14.6%	3.0%	4.25	4.29	+0.7
2034	29	MLB MLE	SD	17	17	99	419	100	40	13	100%	5.8	23.8%	9.6%	14.2%	3.2%	4.35	4.42	+0.6
2035	30	MLB MLE	SD	16	16	93	394	92	39	13	100%	5.8	23.4%	9.9%	13.5%	3.4%	4.50	4.60	+0.3
2036	31	MLB MLE	SD	14	14	87	367	84	38	13	100%	6.2	23.0%	10.2%	12.8%	3.6%	4.68	4.80	+0.1
2037	32	MLB MLE	SD	13	13	80	340	77	36	13	100%	6.2	22.6%	10.6%	11.9%	3.8%	4.89	5.02	-0.1
2027	22	MLB CTX	SD	10	10	50	211	47	23	6	100%	5.0	22.4%	11.1%	11.3%	3.0%	4.74	4.64	+0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	SD	14	14	76	321	74	32	10	100%	5.4	23.1%	10.1%	13.0%	3.0%	4.55	4.44	+0.4
2029	24	MLB CTX	SD	16	16	89	376	89	36	11	100%	5.6	23.6%	9.5%	14.1%	2.9%	4.40	4.30	+0.7
2030	25	MLB CTX	SD	16	16	96	405	97	37	12	100%	6.0	23.9%	9.2%	14.8%	2.9%	4.30	4.23	+0.8
2031	26	MLB CTX	SD	16	16	99	418	101	38	12	100%	6.2	24.1%	9.1%	15.0%	2.9%	4.24	4.20	+0.9
2032	27	MLB CTX	SD	16	16	99	418	101	38	12	100%	6.2	24.1%	9.2%	14.9%	3.0%	4.24	4.24	+0.8
2033	28	MLB CTX	SD	16	16	97	410	98	38	13	100%	6.1	24.0%	9.3%	14.6%	3.1%	4.29	4.33	+0.7
2034	29	MLB CTX	SD	16	16	94	397	94	38	13	100%	5.9	23.8%	9.6%	14.2%	3.2%	4.39	4.46	+0.5
2035	30	MLB CTX	SD	15	15	89	376	88	37	13	100%	5.9	23.4%	9.9%	13.5%	3.4%	4.55	4.65	+0.3
2036	31	MLB CTX	SD	14	14	83	350	81	36	13	100%	5.9	23.0%	10.2%	12.8%	3.7%	4.73	4.85	+0.1
2037	32	MLB CTX	SD	13	13	76	321	72	34	13	100%	5.8	22.6%	10.6%	11.9%	3.9%	4.94	5.07	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		163	163	949	4009	944	389	127	100%	5.8	23.5%	9.7%	13.8%	3.2%	4.46	4.09	+9.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	199	82	27	100%	5.8	23.5%	9.7%	13.8%	3.2%	4.46	4.09	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		23	20	98	434	78	65	12	87%	4.3	18.1%	15.0%	3.1%	2.7%	4.76	4.95	+6.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	41	200	883	160	132	24	87%	4.3	18.1%	15.0%	3.1%	2.7%	4.76	4.95	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tyler Schmitt (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.91	21.4%	12.7%	3.0%	—	4.42	23.0%	12.8%	314	-0.49	—	—	—
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	88
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.92	22.1%	6.6%	260	-0.02	4.21	412	84
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	451	84
Juan Nuñez R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SP	4.49	19.6%	13.2%	2.5%	.300	4.42	22.8%	8.3%	148	-0.07	2.88	245	84
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	83
Chih-Jung Liu R 2021 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP	4.41	18.8%	10.5%	2.9%	.331	6.08	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.67	4.41	283	83
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.09	19.4%	9.7%	290	-0.38	3.21	343	82
Logan Gragg R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	20	SP	4.14	17.4%	9.5%	2.4%	.343	5.20	15.2%	8.2%	202	+1.06	4.14	412	81
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.22	21.7%	13.8%	422	+0.36	3.71	565	81
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	81
José López R 2015 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.77	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.27	3.12	543	81
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	80
Glenn Sparkman R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	23	SP	3.76	20.0%	11.6%	1.6%	.296	3.70	15.9%	10.9%	207	-0.06	3.56	363	80
Jimmy Kingsbury R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	22	SP	3.76	21.9%	9.8%	2.3%	.175	4.18	18.0%	7.5%	168	+0.42	3.51	330	80
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	80
Alec Kisena R 2015 · 4.01 FIP	19	SP	4.01	17.6%	11.8%	1.7%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	248	80
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	80
Carlos Lagrange R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	20	SP	4.34	22.1%	15.5%	2.1%	.291	3.97	25.4%	12.1%	198	-0.37	3.66	272	80
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	79
Luke Albright R 2021 · 5.77 FIP	21	SP	5.77	16.8%	13.4%	4.4%	.295	5.10	19.4%	5.5%	269	-0.67	4.02	329	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.6	94	23.5%	9.8%	1.19	4.44
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17