Cesar Acosta — OGILVIE

Cesar Acosta P DSL NYY Bombers

Age 19 RHP 5'11" / 163 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.8 · 2032

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 18 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 154145vR 137

ERA6.34

FIP6.34

K%20.4%

BB%23.3%

K-BB%-2.8%

ROS IP19

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 18 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$11M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.5M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.4M
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	12	8	31	159	37	35	3	67%	2.6	15.8%	27.5%	-11.7%	2.4%	8.33	6.58	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	12	8	31	159	37	35	3	67%	2.6	15.8%	27.5%	-11.7%	2.4%	8.33	6.58	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Bombers	12	8	31	159	37	35	3	67%	2.6	23.3%	22.0%	1.3%	1.9%	8.33	5.33	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	11	11	52	203	70	21	1	100%	4.7	23.4%	12.9%	10.5%	0.7%	3.31	3.14	—
YTD	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	11	11	52	203	70	21	1	100%	4.7	23.4%	12.9%	10.5%	0.7%	3.31	3.14	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	19	ROK RAW	NYY	11	11	52	203	70	21	1	100%	4.7	34.5%	10.3%	24.1%	0.5%	3.31	1.77	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	NYY	12	12	53	224	48	43	7	100%	4.4	21.2%	19.3%	1.9%	2.9%	5.89	5.73	-0.5
2028	21	MLB MLE	NYY	12	12	56	236	51	39	7	100%	4.6	21.8%	16.5%	5.2%	2.9%	5.50	5.31	-0.3
2029	22	MLB MLE	NYY	11	11	59	247	56	36	7	100%	5.3	22.7%	14.4%	8.4%	2.8%	5.13	4.92	-0.0
2030	23	MLB MLE	NYY	11	11	61	257	60	33	7	100%	5.5	23.5%	12.9%	10.6%	2.8%	4.84	4.65	+0.2
2031	24	MLB MLE	NYY	11	11	62	263	63	31	7	100%	5.7	24.0%	11.9%	12.1%	2.7%	4.61	4.46	+0.3
2032	25	MLB MLE	NYY	11	11	63	266	65	30	7	100%	5.7	24.4%	11.2%	13.3%	2.7%	4.44	4.33	+0.4
2033	26	MLB MLE	NYY	11	11	63	266	66	30	7	100%	5.7	24.6%	11.1%	13.5%	2.7%	4.36	4.30	+0.4
2034	27	MLB MLE	NYY	10	10	62	263	65	29	7	100%	6.2	24.6%	11.2%	13.4%	2.8%	4.35	4.34	+0.4
2027	20	MLB CTX	NYY	6	6	26	110	23	21	3	100%	4.3	21.2%	19.3%	1.9%	3.1%	6.00	5.84	-0.2
2028	21	MLB CTX	NYY	8	8	41	173	38	29	5	100%	5.1	21.8%	16.5%	5.2%	3.1%	5.61	5.42	-0.2
2029	22	MLB CTX	NYY	10	10	49	207	47	30	6	100%	4.9	22.7%	14.4%	8.4%	3.0%	5.23	5.02	-0.0
2030	23	MLB CTX	NYY	10	10	55	232	55	30	7	100%	5.5	23.5%	12.9%	10.6%	3.0%	4.94	4.75	+0.2
2031	24	MLB CTX	NYY	10	10	57	241	58	29	7	100%	5.7	24.0%	11.9%	12.1%	2.9%	4.71	4.56	+0.3
2032	25	MLB CTX	NYY	10	10	59	249	61	28	7	100%	5.9	24.4%	11.2%	13.3%	2.9%	4.54	4.43	+0.4
2033	26	MLB CTX	NYY	10	10	60	253	62	28	7	100%	6.0	24.6%	11.1%	13.5%	2.9%	4.46	4.40	+0.4
2034	27	MLB CTX	NYY	10	10	59	249	61	28	7	100%	5.9	24.6%	11.2%	13.4%	3.0%	4.45	4.44	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		74	74	406	1715	405	222	51	100%	5.5	23.6%	12.9%	10.7%	3.0%	4.88	4.37	+2.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	844	199	109	25	100%	5.5	23.6%	12.9%	10.7%	3.0%	4.88	4.37	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		23	19	83	362	73	70	5	83%	3.6	20.1%	19.3%	0.8%	1.5%	5.20	4.65	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	46	200	872	175	169	13	83%	3.6	20.1%	19.3%	0.8%	1.5%	5.20	4.65	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cesar Acosta (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.34	20.4%	23.3%	3.0%	—	5.31	21.9%	5.3%	168	-1.03	—	—	—
Yerlin Rodriguez R 2021 · 5.73 FIP	19	SP-	5.73	20.0%	23.6%	2.4%	.378	4.63	19.9%	0.7%	112	-1.10	3.84	244	86
Tyrone Yulie R 2021 · 6.80 FIP	19	SP	6.80	19.7%	22.1%	4.7%	.324	5.30	18.1%	2.7%	166	-1.50	4.87	265	83
Anderson Munoz R 2018 · 5.90 FIP	19	SP-	5.90	14.4%	18.2%	3.1%	.306	4.35	25.7%	13.3%	73	-1.55	4.15	109	83
Edgar Isea R 2022 · 5.51 FIP	19	SP-	5.51	19.3%	20.3%	2.7%	.371	5.19	21.4%	-4.1%	98	-0.32	4.50	162	82
Dennis Santana R 2015 · 5.67 FIP	19	SP	5.67	15.3%	20.0%	2.4%	.319	3.48	20.3%	8.8%	268	-2.19	2.82	776	82
Randry De Leon R 2023 · 6.45 FIP	18	SP-	6.45	17.7%	20.2%	4.2%	.308	4.83	18.4%	3.3%	123	-1.62	4.37	153	82
Jose Pena Jr. R 2022 · 5.48 FIP	19	SP-	5.48	15.0%	18.7%	2.3%	.269	4.62	19.2%	3.1%	124	-0.86	3.48	176	82
Brailin Rodriguez R 2021 · 5.19 FIP	18	SP-	5.19	15.8%	17.8%	2.1%	.322	4.82	16.8%	2.1%	76	-0.37	4.15	168	81
Daniel Corniel R 2023 · 5.15 FIP	19	SP-	5.15	20.3%	17.1%	2.9%	.364	4.37	15.7%	3.2%	140	-0.78	3.50	218	81
Jeferson Figueroa R 2021 · 5.24 FIP	20	SP	5.24	17.1%	15.6%	2.9%	.232	5.02	20.6%	5.4%	188	-0.22	4.77	249	80
Raudy Rivera R 2023 · 5.92 FIP	18	SP	5.92	19.2%	31.6%	0.8%	.321	5.34	22.7%	-0.8%	75	-0.58	3.65	111	80
Keythel Key R 2023 · 5.77 FIP	19	SP-	5.77	13.7%	20.1%	2.3%	.290	5.29	18.8%	2.9%	228	-0.48	4.98	272	78
Enrique Segura R 2023 · 6.44 FIP	18	SP	6.44	13.2%	21.3%	3.2%	.269	5.60	16.4%	2.4%	234	-0.84	4.12	313	78
Juan De La Cruz R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	18	SP	5.20	14.6%	17.7%	2.0%	.331	5.01	19.1%	-0.6%	136	-0.19	3.37	220	78
Luis Medina R 2018 · 6.84 FIP	19	SP	6.84	17.4%	31.2%	2.3%	.330	4.96	21.8%	5.2%	199	-1.88	3.35	600	78
Shane Panzini R 2022 · 5.64 FIP	20	SP	5.64	17.3%	15.8%	3.6%	.335	4.96	18.5%	5.6%	251	-0.68	4.59	338	77
Jackson Fristoe R 2023 · 6.07 FIP	22	SP-	6.07	17.0%	24.2%	2.5%	.258	6.12	15.3%	-2.9%	112	+0.05	4.81	139	77
Chen-Wei Lin R 2023 · 6.48 FIP	21	SP	6.48	21.3%	22.0%	4.4%	.379	3.81	20.5%	8.4%	257	-2.67	3.05	269	77
Kenyi Perez R 2021 · 6.09 FIP	19	SP	6.09	15.6%	27.4%	1.5%	.349	6.38	21.0%	-13.4%	77	+0.29	4.33	193	77
Mason McGwire R 2023 · 6.54 FIP	19	SP	6.54	13.2%	19.6%	3.8%	.374	4.91	18.1%	3.8%	120	-1.63	4.11	155	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	55	23.3%	13.8%	1.08	4.91
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58