Cesar Acosta

P DSL NYY Bombers

Age 20 RHP 5'11" / 163 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038 peak 0.7 · 2031

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1107ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	18	ROKDSL NYY Bombe…	12	8	31	8.33	5.33	23.3%	22.0%	—	K 15.8% · BB 27.5% · FIP 6.58
2026	19	ROKDSL NYY Bombe…	11	11	52	3.31	1.86	34.5%	10.3%	—	K 23.4% · BB 12.9% · FIP 3.14
2027PROJ	20	MLBNYY	—	—	0	5.18	5.18	22.3%	15.9%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	21	MLBNYY	4	4	20	5.05	4.95	22.8%	13.8%	0.1
2029PROJ73% MLB	22	MLBNYY	6	6	30	4.79	4.64	23.8%	12.2%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsCarlos Lagrange (age 20) · Trevor Bauer (age 21) · Jared Lyons (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132123vR 115

ERA5.18

FIP5.18

K%22.3%

BB%15.9%

K-BB%6.4%

Proj IP31

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 31 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$25M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.6	$1M	+$1.0M
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$3M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	12	8	31	159	37	35	3	67%	2.6	15.8%	27.5%	-11.7%	2.4%	8.33	6.58	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	12	8	31	159	37	35	3	67%	2.6	15.8%	27.5%	-11.7%	2.4%	8.33	6.58	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Bombers	12	8	31	159	37	35	3	67%	2.6	23.3%	22.0%	1.3%	1.9%	8.33	5.33	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	11	11	52	203	70	21	1	100%	4.7	23.4%	12.9%	10.5%	0.7%	3.31	3.14	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	11	11	52	203	70	21	1	100%	4.7	23.4%	12.9%	10.5%	0.7%	3.31	3.14	—
2026	19	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Bombers	11	11	52	203	70	21	1	100%	4.7	34.5%	10.3%	24.1%	0.5%	3.31	1.86	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	NYY	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.3%	15.9%	6.4%	2.9%	5.18	5.18	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	NYY	8	8	41	173	39	24	5	100%	5.1	22.8%	13.8%	9.0%	2.8%	4.95	4.85	+0.3
2029	22	MLB MLE	NYY	8	8	42	176	42	22	5	100%	5.2	23.8%	12.2%	11.6%	2.8%	4.69	4.54	+0.4
2030	23	MLB MLE	NYY	8	8	43	182	44	20	5	100%	5.4	24.5%	11.1%	13.4%	2.7%	4.47	4.32	+0.5
2031	24	MLB MLE	NYY	8	8	44	184	46	19	5	100%	5.4	25.0%	10.4%	14.6%	2.7%	4.29	4.17	+0.6
2032	25	MLB MLE	NYY	7	7	43	182	46	18	5	100%	6.2	25.4%	9.9%	15.4%	2.7%	4.16	4.08	+0.7
2033	26	MLB MLE	NYY	7	7	44	184	47	18	5	100%	6.2	25.6%	9.9%	15.7%	2.7%	4.10	4.05	+0.7
2034	27	MLB MLE	NYY	7	7	42	179	46	18	5	100%	6.1	25.5%	9.9%	15.6%	2.8%	4.09	4.09	+0.7
2028	21	MLB CTX	NYY	4	4	20	84	19	12	3	100%	5.0	22.8%	13.8%	9.0%	3.0%	5.05	4.95	+0.1
2029	22	MLB CTX	NYY	6	6	30	127	30	15	4	100%	5.0	23.8%	12.2%	11.6%	3.0%	4.79	4.64	+0.3
2030	23	MLB CTX	NYY	7	7	36	152	37	17	4	100%	5.1	24.5%	11.1%	13.4%	2.9%	4.57	4.42	+0.5
2031	24	MLB CTX	NYY	7	7	39	165	41	17	5	100%	5.6	25.0%	10.4%	14.6%	2.9%	4.39	4.27	+0.6
2032	25	MLB CTX	NYY	7	7	40	169	43	17	5	100%	5.7	25.4%	9.9%	15.4%	2.9%	4.26	4.18	+0.6
2033	26	MLB CTX	NYY	7	7	41	173	44	17	5	100%	5.9	25.6%	9.9%	15.7%	2.9%	4.20	4.15	+0.7
2034	27	MLB CTX	NYY	7	7	40	169	43	17	5	100%	5.7	25.5%	9.9%	15.6%	2.9%	4.19	4.19	+0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		44	44	246	1039	258	112	30	100%	5.6	24.8%	10.8%	14.1%	2.9%	4.44	3.97	+4.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	844	210	91	24	100%	5.6	24.8%	10.8%	14.1%	2.9%	4.44	3.97	+3.4
Career	—	MLE		23	19	83	362	73	70	5	83%	3.6	20.1%	19.3%	0.8%	1.5%	5.20	4.65	+3.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	46	200	872	175	169	13	83%	3.6	20.1%	19.3%	0.8%	1.5%	5.20	4.65	+2.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKDSL NYY Bombers · 52 IPFIP 1.77 → 3.14 (+1.37)K% 34.5% → 23.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.48%	—	×0.680	23.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.34%	—	×1.250	12.93%
HR / BF /BF	0.49%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.69%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.77 → 3.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKDSL NYY Bombers · 31 IPFIP 4.96 → 6.58 (+1.62)K% 23.3% → 15.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.27%	—	×0.680	15.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	22.01%	—	×1.250	27.52%
HR / BF /BF	1.89%	÷1.090	×1.400	2.42%

Result: FIP 4.96 → 6.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cesar Acosta (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	4.57	23.7%	11.3%	126	-0.61	—	—	—
Carlos Lagrange R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	20	SP	4.34	22.1%	15.5%	2.1%	.291	3.93	25.8%	12.5%	199	-0.41	3.66	273	89
Trevor Bauer R 2012 · 4.79 FIP	21	SP	4.79	22.1%	16.9%	2.6%	.267	4.08	21.8%	11.8%	346	-0.71	2.16	1,298	86
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.4%	8.5%	211	-0.23	3.28	265	83
Jeffrey Rosa R 2015 · 4.34 FIP	20	SP	4.34	19.8%	15.3%	1.8%	.257	4.92	13.1%	-4.6%	67	+0.58	4.17	123	83
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	82
Cristian Hernandez R 2024 · 4.39 FIP	19	SP	4.39	23.5%	19.9%	1.4%	.269	5.41	18.1%	2.6%	62	+1.02	4.39	116	82
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	82
Tanner McDougal R 2023 · 4.96 FIP	20	SP	4.96	19.7%	16.9%	2.5%	.285	4.81	21.3%	8.0%	253	-0.15	3.82	323	81
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.90	22.5%	6.9%	260	-0.04	4.14	414	80
Jeferson Figueroa R 2021 · 5.24 FIP	20	SP	5.24	17.1%	15.6%	2.9%	.232	5.02	20.6%	5.4%	188	-0.22	4.77	249	80
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	452	80
Moises Castillo R 2024 · 4.58 FIP	19	SP-	4.58	18.1%	11.7%	2.8%	.269	4.06	19.4%	4.9%	67	-0.52	3.76	104	79
James Proctor R 2021 · 3.99 FIP	23	SP	3.99	22.0%	15.2%	1.5%	.277	4.39	14.0%	1.5%	48	+0.40	3.99	109	79
Jharold Clemente R 2023 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	17.5%	13.6%	3.0%	.258	5.11	13.3%	4.3%	92	+0.14	4.09	116	79
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	79
Darlin Saladin R 2023 · 4.98 FIP	20	SP	4.98	16.2%	13.3%	2.8%	.280	3.79	19.3%	8.0%	274	-1.19	2.91	407	79
Shane Panzini R 2022 · 5.64 FIP	20	SP	5.64	17.3%	15.8%	3.6%	.335	4.96	18.5%	5.6%	251	-0.68	4.59	338	79
Bryan Polanco R 2022 · 5.18 FIP	20	SP-	5.18	18.2%	14.3%	3.3%	.248	5.58	13.0%	1.2%	243	+0.40	5.18	374	79
Beck Way R 2021 · 4.53 FIP	21	SP	4.53	23.1%	16.5%	2.4%	.250	4.79	19.8%	5.4%	246	+0.26	3.82	438	78
Alonzo Tredwell R 2024 · 4.43 FIP	22	SP-	4.43	19.3%	17.4%	1.4%	.336	4.19	22.0%	9.9%	100	-0.24	4.19	166	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	41	24.4%	11.5%	1.07	4.46
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Brandon Workman ('21)	1.6	55	24.3%	11.1%	1.04	4.02
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*