Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 9 | 7 | 29 | 125 | 35 | 14 | 3 | 78% | 3.2 | 17.1% | 15.6% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 3.41 | 5.28 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 9 | 7 | 29 | 125 | 35 | 14 | 3 | 78% | 3.2 | 28.0% | 11.2% | 16.8% | 2.4% | 3.41 | 3.48 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A | Carolina Mudcats | 21 | 12 | 77 | 351 | 94 | 42 | 10 | 57% | 3.7 | 19.8% | 14.1% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 6.81 | 4.81 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A | Carolina Mudcats | 21 | 12 | 77 | 351 | 94 | 42 | 10 | 57% | 3.7 | 26.8% | 12.0% | 14.8% | 2.8% | 6.81 | 3.99 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Carolina Mudcats | 27 | 1 | 45 | 192 | 51 | 29 | 5 | 4% | 1.7 | 19.7% | 17.8% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 2.80 | 5.32 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Carolina Mudcats | 27 | 1 | 45 | 192 | 51 | 29 | 5 | 4% | 1.7 | 26.6% | 15.1% | 11.5% | 2.6% | 2.80 | 4.21 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 2 | 66 | 272 | 80 | 34 | 7 | 6% | 2.1 | 22.1% | 14.6% | 7.5% | 2.9% | 3.00 | 4.66 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 2 | 66 | 272 | 80 | 34 | 7 | 6% | 2.1 | 29.4% | 12.5% | 16.9% | 2.6% | 3.00 | 3.60 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 26 | 0 | 42 | 199 | 32 | 41 | 7 | 0% | 1.6 | 12.4% | 23.7% | -11.3% | 2.9% | 5.53 | 6.67 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 26 | 0 | 42 | 199 | 32 | 41 | 7 | 0% | 1.6 | 16.1% | 20.6% | -4.5% | 3.5% | 5.53 | 6.64 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | MIL | 57 | 0 | 60 | 251 | 35 | 56 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.1% | 22.3% | -8.2% | 3.0% | 6.74 | 6.74 | -1.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | MIL | 57 | 0 | 60 | 251 | 40 | 53 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.8% | 21.0% | -5.2% | 3.0% | 6.46 | 6.43 | -1.3 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | MIL | 56 | 0 | 59 | 247 | 40 | 50 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.3% | 20.2% | -3.8% | 3.0% | 6.31 | 6.31 | -1.2 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | MIL | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 17 | 23 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.8% | 21.0% | -5.2% | 3.0% | 6.46 | 6.43 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | MIL | 35 | 0 | 37 | 156 | 26 | 31 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.3% | 20.2% | -3.8% | 3.0% | 6.31 | 6.31 | -0.8 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 59 | 0 | 62 | 264 | 42 | 54 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.1% | 20.5% | -4.4% | 3.0% | 6.37 | 5.98 | -1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 134 | 173 | 26 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.1% | 20.5% | -4.4% | 3.0% | 6.37 | 5.98 | -1.4 | ||
| Career | — | 115 | 22 | 259 | 1139 | 213 | 190 | 33 | 19% | 2.3 | 18.7% | 16.7% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 4.55 | 5.24 | +0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 89 | 17 | 200 | 880 | 165 | 147 | 26 | 19% | 2.3 | 18.7% | 16.7% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 4.55 | 5.24 | +0.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jeferson Figueroa (OGILVIE) | — | — | 6.74 | 14.1% | 22.3% | 3.0% | — | 6.37 | 16.0% | -4.5% | 118 | -0.37 | — | — | — |
| Josh Harlow R 2025 · 5.71 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.71 | 17.1% | 21.3% | 2.5% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.52 | 107 | 80 |
| Blake Hickman R 2025 · 6.54 FIP | 24 | SW | 6.54 | 12.9% | 17.8% | 4.1% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.45 | 156 | 80 |
| Clate Schmidt R 2026 · 5.61 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.61 | 13.5% | 13.9% | 3.4% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 160 | 79 |
| Cre Finfrock R 2027 · 6.27 FIP | 26 | SU | 6.27 | 16.7% | 25.2% | 2.5% | .309 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 103 | 78 |
| Leandro Linares R 2025 · 5.59 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.59 | 16.2% | 22.0% | 2.0% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.93 | 134 | 77 |
| Luke Savage R 2025 · 5.70 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.70 | 15.0% | 17.7% | 3.0% | .358 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 117 | 77 |
| Vanny Valenzuela R 2028 · 6.66 FIP | 27 | SW | 6.66 | 12.4% | 14.8% | 5.0% | .314 | 4.38 | 15.8% | 4.6% | 70 | -2.28 | 3.26 | 118 | 77 |
| Conner O'Neil R 2025 · 5.58 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.58 | 12.8% | 13.6% | 3.3% | .340 | 7.24 | 16.4% | 4.1% | 26 | +1.66 | 2.90 | 115 | 76 |
| Nicholas Regalado R 2024 · 5.62 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.62 | 15.0% | 15.5% | 3.3% | .252 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.99 | 132 | 76 |
| Jarod Wright R 2026 · 5.87 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.87 | 12.7% | 13.2% | 4.0% | .282 | 4.28 | 13.2% | 3.8% | 53 | -1.59 | 4.28 | 170 | 76 |
| Brady Schanuel R 2026 · 5.65 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.65 | 17.9% | 23.5% | 2.0% | .200 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 132 | 75 |
| Jordan Brink R 2024 · 5.96 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.96 | 18.3% | 19.2% | 3.6% | .233 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.10 | 132 | 75 |
| Alejandro Torres R 2026 · 6.52 FIP | 25 | SU | 6.52 | 18.3% | 20.1% | 4.4% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 103 | 75 |
| Tom Reisinger R 2025 · 6.70 FIP | 24 | SU | 6.70 | 10.3% | 15.9% | 4.5% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.25 | 110 | 74 |
| J.P. Massey R 2026 · 5.64 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.64 | 15.5% | 16.8% | 3.1% | .263 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.62 | 195 | 74 |
| Dallas Woolfolk R 2025 · 6.39 FIP | 24 | SU | 6.39 | 12.9% | 21.9% | 2.9% | .324 | 5.21 | 14.0% | 0.7% | 50 | -1.18 | 5.21 | 100 | 74 |
| CJ Weins R 2026 · 5.65 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.65 | 15.5% | 14.9% | 3.6% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 113 | 74 |
| Logan Sendelbach R 2025 · 5.61 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.61 | 12.3% | 13.9% | 3.3% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 340 | 73 |
| Taylor Hawkins R 2024 · 6.08 FIP | 23 | SU | 6.08 | 7.4% | 19.5% | 2.1% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.37 | 112 | 73 |
| Jake Smith R 2026 · 5.60 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.60 | 18.3% | 21.3% | 2.5% | .232 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.07 | 219 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 59 | 15.4% | 21.2% | 1.15 | 6.50 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |