Adriano Marrero — OGILVIE

Adriano Marrero P ACL Dodgers

Age 18 RHP 6'3" / 184 lbs ROK peak 0.4 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 19 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.59

FIP4.59

K%20.9%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%10.8%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 19 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	10	10	33	144	35	12	1	100%	3.3	16.5%	10.4%	6.1%	0.7%	3.82	3.41	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	10	10	33	144	35	12	1	100%	3.3	16.5%	10.4%	6.1%	0.7%	3.82	3.41	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	10	10	33	144	35	12	1	100%	3.3	24.3%	8.3%	16.0%	0.7%	3.82	2.46	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	18	A MLE	Ontario Tower Buzzers	10	9	26	118	28	17	0	90%	2.6	17.2%	18.0%	-0.9%	0.0%	4.56	3.93	—
YTD	18	A MLE	Ontario Tower Buzzers	10	9	26	118	28	17	0	90%	2.6	17.2%	18.0%	-0.9%	0.0%	4.56	3.93	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	18	ROK RAW	LAD	9	8	24	111	28	16	0	89%	2.6	25.2%	14.4%	10.8%	0.0%	4.94	2.80	—
2026	18	A RAW	LAD	1	1	2	7	0	1	0	100%	2.0	0.0%	14.3%	-14.3%	0.0%	0.00	4.91	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	19	MLB MLE	LAD	6	6	31	132	28	13	4	100%	5.2	21.5%	9.6%	12.0%	2.9%	4.49	4.44	+0.2
2027	19	MLB CTX	LAD	3	3	15	63	14	6	2	100%	5.0	21.5%	9.6%	12.0%	2.9%	4.49	4.44	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		4	4	15	65	14	6	2	100%	3.8	21.5%	9.6%	12.0%	2.9%	4.49	4.06	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		46	46	200	844	183	78	26	100%	4.3	21.5%	9.6%	12.0%	2.9%	4.49	4.06	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		20	19	59	262	44	36	1	95%	2.9	16.8%	13.8%	3.0%	0.4%	4.14	3.65	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		68	65	200	893	150	124	3	95%	2.9	16.8%	13.8%	3.0%	0.4%	4.14	3.65	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Adriano Marrero (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.59	20.9%	10.1%	2.9%	—	4.44	21.5%	12.0%	31	-0.15	—	—	—
Nelfy Ynfante R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	18	SP	4.22	18.1%	10.7%	2.4%	.309	4.71	16.8%	5.5%	225	+0.49	3.70	297	85
Shawndrick Oduber R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	18	SP	3.99	22.0%	7.2%	3.4%	.337	5.40	15.2%	3.4%	72	+1.41	3.99	104	84
Juan Bello R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	18	SP	4.02	18.3%	6.9%	2.9%	.256	3.93	18.2%	7.6%	155	-0.09	3.77	187	84
Jordany Ventura R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP	4.08	16.8%	8.9%	2.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	219	82
Luis Arejula R 2021 · 3.52 FIP	19	SP	3.52	21.9%	8.7%	2.1%	.318	4.46	15.7%	3.5%	71	+0.94	3.52	115	82
Anderson Cardenas R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	17	SP	4.22	17.3%	12.6%	1.8%	.319	4.04	21.2%	8.3%	92	-0.18	3.52	129	81
Javier Bartolozzi R 2023 · 3.39 FIP	18	SP	3.39	16.9%	8.1%	1.2%	.325	4.56	13.8%	5.4%	125	+1.17	3.39	164	81
Marco Raya R 2022 · 4.77 FIP	19	SP	4.77	21.4%	10.3%	4.0%	.250	4.44	19.5%	8.3%	254	-0.33	3.99	380	81
Carson Fulmer R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	21	SP	4.15	21.4%	11.5%	2.5%	.259	4.96	17.1%	4.0%	364	+0.81	3.88	899	81
Jose Montero R 2022 · 3.72 FIP	19	SP	3.72	20.8%	7.9%	2.5%	.377	4.03	15.8%	4.6%	234	+0.31	3.72	375	80
Aneury Lora R 2022 · 3.95 FIP	18	SP	3.95	16.6%	11.1%	1.5%	.339	3.72	15.1%	5.9%	114	-0.23	3.69	192	80
Cesar Espinal R 2023 · 4.28 FIP	17	SP	4.28	17.0%	10.1%	2.4%	.303	6.16	16.1%	-4.2%	56	+1.88	4.28	109	80
Richard Fernandez R 2022 · 5.10 FIP	19	SP	5.10	15.1%	9.3%	3.8%	.309	4.25	16.5%	-0.2%	85	-0.85	3.66	137	80
Carlos Naveda R 2017 · 3.77 FIP	18	SP	3.77	19.9%	10.5%	1.9%	.297	2.63	16.9%	11.7%	64	-1.14	2.63	120	79
Giussepe Velasquez R 2021 · 4.21 FIP	18	SP	4.21	17.2%	10.7%	2.2%	.329	5.64	19.1%	4.8%	53	+1.43	4.21	222	79
Kyle Glogoski R 2018 · 3.46 FIP	19	SP-	3.46	19.9%	8.5%	1.7%	.277	3.92	20.6%	9.1%	93	+0.46	3.32	206	79
Logan Gragg R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	20	SP	4.14	17.4%	9.5%	2.4%	.343	5.20	15.2%	8.2%	202	+1.06	4.14	412	79
Jharold Clemente R 2023 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	17.5%	13.6%	3.0%	.258	5.11	13.3%	4.3%	92	+0.14	4.09	116	78
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	78
Luis Valdez R 2023 · 3.39 FIP	18	SP	3.39	18.6%	6.7%	1.8%	.270	6.44	17.8%	5.1%	36	+3.05	3.39	103	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	25	21.3%	9.8%	1.11	4.53
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21