Javier Bartolozzi

Javier Bartolozzi P Ontario Tower Buzzers

Age 21 RHP 6'4" / 193 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.5 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 99

ERA4.32

FIP4.32

K%19.9%

BB%7.1%

K-BB%12.7%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$13M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Mega	13	13	39	169	42	11	2	100%	3.0	16.9%	8.1%	8.8%	1.3%	3.66	3.39	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Mega	13	13	39	169	42	11	2	100%	3.0	16.9%	8.1%	8.8%	1.3%	3.66	3.39	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Mega	13	13	39	169	42	11	2	100%	3.0	24.9%	6.5%	18.3%	1.2%	3.66	2.46	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	13	12	50	211	48	11	3	92%	3.9	15.5%	6.5%	9.0%	1.9%	4.47	3.65	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	13	12	50	211	48	11	3	92%	3.9	15.5%	6.5%	9.0%	1.9%	4.47	3.65	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Bautista	13	12	50	211	48	11	3	92%	3.9	22.7%	5.2%	17.5%	1.4%	4.47	2.62	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL Dodgers	13	0	26	113	28	6	2	0%	2.0	16.8%	6.6%	10.2%	2.1%	4.56	3.66	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL Dodgers	13	0	26	113	28	6	2	0%	2.0	16.8%	6.6%	10.2%	2.1%	4.56	3.66	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	ACL Dodgers	13	0	26	113	28	6	2	0%	2.0	24.8%	5.3%	19.5%	1.8%	4.56	2.63	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A MLE	Ontario Tower Buzzers	30	0	53	234	35	24	7	0%	1.8	10.6%	11.5%	-0.9%	4.2%	5.47	5.97	—
YTD	21	A MLE	Ontario Tower Buzzers	30	0	53	234	35	24	7	0%	1.8	10.6%	11.5%	-0.9%	4.2%	5.47	5.97	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	ROK RAW	LAD	3	0	4	18	4	3	0	0%	1.2	22.2%	16.7%	5.6%	0.0%	7.36	3.33	—
2026	21	A RAW	LAD	27	0	49	216	31	21	7	0%	1.8	14.4%	9.7%	4.6%	3.2%	5.33	4.90	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	LAD	52	0	54	229	49	16	7	0%	1.0	21.3%	7.0%	14.3%	2.9%	4.21	4.14	+0.3
2028	23	MLB MLE	LAD	54	0	56	237	53	16	7	0%	1.0	22.1%	6.8%	15.3%	2.8%	4.11	4.03	+0.3
2029	24	MLB MLE	LAD	55	0	58	243	55	16	7	0%	1.0	22.8%	6.7%	16.0%	2.8%	4.02	3.95	+0.4
2030	25	MLB MLE	LAD	56	0	58	246	57	16	7	0%	1.0	23.2%	6.6%	16.5%	2.8%	3.96	3.91	+0.4
2031	26	MLB MLE	LAD	56	0	58	246	57	16	7	0%	1.0	23.4%	6.6%	16.8%	2.8%	3.91	3.88	+0.5
2032	27	MLB MLE	LAD	55	0	57	242	57	16	7	0%	1.0	23.3%	6.7%	16.7%	2.9%	3.92	3.92	+0.4
2027	22	MLB CTX	LAD	26	0	27	114	24	8	3	0%	1.0	21.3%	7.0%	14.3%	3.0%	4.28	4.21	+0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	LAD	39	0	41	173	38	12	5	0%	1.1	22.1%	6.8%	15.3%	3.0%	4.18	4.10	+0.3
2029	24	MLB CTX	LAD	46	0	48	203	46	14	6	0%	1.0	22.8%	6.7%	16.0%	2.9%	4.09	4.02	+0.3
2030	25	MLB CTX	LAD	49	0	51	215	50	14	6	0%	1.0	23.2%	6.6%	16.5%	2.9%	4.03	3.98	+0.4
2031	26	MLB CTX	LAD	50	0	53	224	52	15	7	0%	1.1	23.4%	6.6%	16.8%	2.9%	3.98	3.95	+0.4
2032	27	MLB CTX	LAD	50	0	53	224	52	15	7	0%	1.1	23.3%	6.7%	16.7%	3.0%	3.99	3.99	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		260	0	273	1154	263	77	34	0%	1.1	22.8%	6.7%	16.1%	3.0%	4.07	3.64	+2.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	192	56	25	0%	1.1	22.8%	6.7%	16.1%	3.0%	4.07	3.64	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		69	25	168	727	105	62	18	36%	2.4	14.5%	8.5%	5.9%	2.5%	4.61	4.34	+2.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		82	30	200	865	125	74	22	36%	2.4	14.5%	8.5%	5.9%	2.5%	4.61	4.34	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Javier Bartolozzi (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.32	19.9%	7.1%	2.9%	—	4.04	22.1%	15.3%	168	-0.28	—	—	—
Austin Hutchison R 2017 · 4.05 FIP	22	SW	4.05	19.7%	6.0%	3.4%	.340	4.55	18.7%	9.2%	213	+0.50	3.51	235	90
David Davalillo R 2023 · 3.33 FIP	20	SW	3.33	18.6%	6.8%	1.7%	.292	3.31	20.7%	12.3%	305	-0.02	2.96	322	89
Jake Elliott R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	21	SU	3.82	19.2%	7.1%	2.6%	.353	3.81	18.1%	10.0%	202	-0.01	2.91	354	88
Kyle Zurak R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.20	181	87
Cole Stapler R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	22	SW	3.83	19.2%	6.0%	2.9%	.266	3.31	18.1%	13.2%	220	-0.52	3.26	255	86
J.T. Hintzen R 2018 · 3.22 FIP	22	SU	3.22	20.1%	7.0%	1.7%	.303	4.37	24.1%	15.1%	123	+1.15	3.22	205	85
Huei-Sheng Lin R 2019 · 4.59 FIP	20	SW	4.59	17.4%	7.4%	3.7%	.360	5.64	16.1%	3.7%	88	+1.05	4.59	120	85
Cody Palmquist R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	22	SU	4.31	21.9%	9.0%	3.5%	.278	6.02	14.7%	7.1%	62	+1.71	4.31	104	84
Clayton McGinness R 2019 · 3.85 FIP	22	SW	3.85	19.4%	4.5%	3.3%	.291	4.63	18.7%	7.8%	84	+0.78	3.85	106	83
Connor Eller R 2016 · 4.35 FIP	22	SU	4.35	16.7%	7.5%	3.1%	.222	4.55	10.8%	-1.2%	136	+0.20	3.79	170	83
Ismael Cabrera R 2015 · 3.56 FIP	21	SU	3.56	19.0%	7.4%	2.1%	.250	5.19	17.4%	6.6%	117	+1.63	3.56	133	83
Addison Russ R 2017 · 3.62 FIP	22	SU	3.62	22.2%	7.9%	2.5%	.324	3.09	25.6%	17.5%	121	-0.53	3.08	194	83
Jeff Bain R 2017 · 3.94 FIP	21	SU	3.94	19.7%	6.7%	3.0%	.339	4.22	19.1%	10.7%	274	+0.28	3.35	475	82
Kevin Coulter R 2019 · 3.27 FIP	22	SU	3.27	21.0%	7.4%	1.8%	.287	4.51	16.1%	7.6%	92	+1.24	3.27	128	82
Clark Beeker R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	23	SW	4.04	20.0%	7.1%	3.2%	.270	4.35	11.6%	6.4%	244	+0.31	4.04	287	82
Fred Villarreal R 2021 · 3.93 FIP	23	SU	3.93	17.6%	6.8%	2.6%	.331	3.64	14.1%	3.5%	63	-0.29	3.64	114	82
Chris Gau R 2018 · 4.76 FIP	21	SU	4.76	20.0%	8.6%	4.1%	.290	3.19	29.5%	23.5%	37	-1.57	2.96	211	82
Justin Lasko R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	22	SU	3.66	17.1%	8.6%	1.7%	.286	4.62	15.8%	8.1%	152	+0.96	3.66	173	82
Juan Jimenez R 2015 · 3.45 FIP	21	SU	3.45	18.2%	7.2%	1.8%	.327	5.51	17.2%	2.6%	80	+2.06	3.45	115	82
Daniel Bies R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	22	SW	3.96	24.5%	6.8%	3.8%	.339	3.17	20.3%	11.0%	89	-0.79	3.17	115	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	52	22.5%	6.8%	1.10	4.04
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Chris Devenski ('24)	1.9	62	26.0%	6.9%	1.25	3.61
Craig Stammen ('22)	2.0	66	23.0%	5.4%	1.19	3.36
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Adam Cimber ('24)	1.6	52	18.3%	6.6%	0.75	3.75