Javier Bartolozzi

P Ontario Tower Buzzers

Age 22 RHP 6'4" / 193 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	ROKDSL LAD Bauti…	13	12	50	4.47	2.62	22.7%	5.2%	—	K 15.5% · BB 6.5% · FIP 3.65
2025	20	ROKLAD	13	0	26	4.56	2.63	24.8%	5.3%	—	K 16.8% · BB 6.6% · FIP 3.66
2026	21	MIX2 levels	30	0	53	5.47	4.87	15.0%	10.3%	—	K 10.6% · BB 11.5% · FIP 5.97
2027PROJ	22	MLBLAD	—	—	0	5.14	5.14	15.4%	9.9%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBLAD	17	0	18	4.92	4.83	17.8%	9.3%	-0.1
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBLAD	25	0	26	4.74	4.64	19.3%	8.9%	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsNick Lockhart (age 22) · Adam Bernero (age 23) · Brad Deppermann (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA5.14

FIP5.14

K%15.4%

BB%9.9%

K-BB%5.5%

Proj IP25

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 25 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†3050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Mega	13	13	39	169	42	11	2	100%	3.0	16.9%	8.1%	8.8%	1.3%	3.66	3.39	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Mega	13	13	39	169	42	11	2	100%	3.0	24.9%	6.5%	18.3%	1.2%	3.66	2.46	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	13	12	50	211	48	11	3	92%	3.9	15.5%	6.5%	9.0%	1.9%	4.47	3.65	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	13	12	50	211	48	11	3	92%	3.9	15.5%	6.5%	9.0%	1.9%	4.47	3.65	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Bautista	13	12	50	211	48	11	3	92%	3.9	22.7%	5.2%	17.5%	1.4%	4.47	2.62	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL Dodgers	13	0	26	113	28	6	2	0%	2.0	16.8%	6.6%	10.2%	2.1%	4.56	3.66	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL Dodgers	13	0	26	113	28	6	2	0%	2.0	16.8%	6.6%	10.2%	2.1%	4.56	3.66	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	ACL Dodgers	13	0	26	113	28	6	2	0%	2.0	24.8%	5.3%	19.5%	1.8%	4.56	2.63	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	0	53	234	35	24	7	0%	1.8	10.6%	11.5%	-0.9%	4.2%	5.47	5.97	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	0	53	234	35	24	7	0%	1.8	10.6%	11.5%	-0.9%	4.2%	5.47	5.97	—
2026	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	0	53	234	35	24	7	0%	1.8	15.0%	10.3%	4.7%	3.0%	5.47	4.87	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	LAD	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	15.4%	9.9%	5.5%	3.1%	5.14	5.14	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	LAD	35	0	37	156	28	15	5	0%	1.1	17.8%	9.3%	8.5%	3.1%	4.92	4.83	-0.1
2029	24	MLB MLE	LAD	35	0	37	156	30	14	5	0%	1.1	19.3%	8.9%	10.4%	3.0%	4.74	4.64	-0.0
2030	25	MLB MLE	LAD	31	0	32	137	28	12	4	0%	1.0	20.1%	8.7%	11.4%	3.0%	4.61	4.53	+0.0
2031	26	MLB MLE	LAD	31	0	32	136	28	12	4	0%	1.0	20.5%	8.7%	11.8%	3.0%	4.54	4.49	+0.0
2028	23	MLB CTX	LAD	17	0	18	76	14	7	2	0%	1.1	17.8%	9.3%	8.5%	3.1%	4.92	4.83	-0.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	LAD	25	0	26	110	21	10	3	0%	1.0	19.3%	8.9%	10.4%	3.0%	4.74	4.64	-0.0
2030	25	MLB CTX	LAD	25	0	26	110	22	10	3	0%	1.0	20.1%	8.7%	11.4%	3.0%	4.61	4.53	+0.0
2031	26	MLB CTX	LAD	27	0	28	118	24	10	4	0%	1.0	20.5%	8.7%	11.8%	3.0%	4.54	4.49	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		94	0	98	416	81	37	13	0%	1.0	19.6%	8.9%	10.7%	3.0%	4.68	4.22	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	165	75	26	0%	1.1	19.6%	8.9%	10.7%	3.0%	4.68	4.22	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		69	25	168	727	105	62	18	36%	2.4	14.5%	8.5%	5.9%	2.5%	4.61	4.34	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		82	30	200	865	125	74	22	36%	2.4	14.5%	8.5%	5.9%	2.5%	4.61	4.34	-0.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AOntario Tower Buzzers · 49 IPFIP 4.90 → 5.97 (+1.07)K% 14.4% → 10.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	14.35%	—	×0.740	10.62%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.72%	—	×1.180	11.47%
HR / BF /BF	3.24%	÷1.000	×1.300	4.21%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.90 → 5.97, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Dodgers · 26 IPFIP 2.65 → 3.66 (+1.01)K% 24.8% → 16.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.78%	—	×0.680	16.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.31%	—	×1.250	6.64%
HR / BF /BF	1.77%	÷1.187	×1.400	2.09%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 137).

Result: FIP 2.65 → 3.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKDSL LAD Bautista · 50 IPFIP 2.62 → 3.65 (+1.03)K% 22.7% → 15.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.75%	—	×0.680	15.47%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.21%	—	×1.250	6.52%
HR / BF /BF	1.42%	÷1.059	×1.400	1.88%

Result: FIP 2.62 → 3.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKDSL LAD Mega · 39 IPFIP 2.48 → 3.39 (+0.91)K% 24.9% → 16.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.85%	—	×0.680	16.90%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.51%	—	×1.250	8.14%
HR / BF /BF	1.18%	÷1.325	×1.400	1.25%

Result: FIP 2.48 → 3.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Javier Bartolozzi (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.14	15.4%	9.9%	3.1%	—	4.67	19.0%	10.0%	106	-0.47	—	—	—
Nick Lockhart R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	22	SW	4.63	16.1%	10.6%	2.8%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	4.44	140	88
Adam Bernero R 2000 · 4.15 FIP	23	SW	4.15	14.2%	8.5%	2.1%	.283	4.88	14.2%	6.3%	247	+0.73	3.45	376	87
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	85
Todd Peterson R 2021 · 5.11 FIP	23	SW	5.11	18.4%	10.3%	4.1%	.279	4.83	15.0%	4.3%	124	-0.28	4.45	175	84
Chad Jenkins R 2012 · 5.06 FIP	24	SW	5.06	11.8%	7.4%	3.7%	.257	3.56	12.8%	7.6%	159	-1.50	3.26	220	83
Jack Carey R 2022 · 4.77 FIP	22	SU	4.77	16.8%	10.9%	3.1%	.333	4.31	19.5%	8.2%	156	-0.46	3.79	250	83
Luis F. Castillo R 2016 · 4.51 FIP	21	SU	4.51	16.7%	10.5%	2.7%	.337	3.50	19.7%	12.3%	96	-1.01	2.95	254	82
Scott Burke R 2018 · 4.55 FIP	24	SW	4.55	14.2%	7.7%	3.0%	.316	5.27	14.9%	6.7%	61	+0.72	4.55	119	82
Hunter Hayes R 2023 · 4.53 FIP	22	SW	4.53	13.3%	9.7%	2.4%	.307	4.49	16.5%	4.0%	155	-0.04	3.34	216	82
Tanner Dodson R 2019 · 5.04 FIP	22	SW	5.04	13.6%	10.8%	3.1%	.433	4.48	17.7%	2.8%	91	-0.56	3.87	277	82
Michael Bowden R 2009 · 4.96 FIP	22	SU	4.96	16.0%	8.0%	4.0%	.370	4.45	19.3%	9.7%	75	-0.51	3.21	269	82
Robbie Welhaf R 2018 · 4.06 FIP	23	SU	4.06	14.0%	7.6%	2.1%	.309	3.11	18.1%	15.0%	90	-0.95	3.11	121	82
Yunior Montero R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	22	SW	4.82	16.9%	14.1%	2.5%	.276	4.58	21.5%	6.2%	91	-0.24	3.65	127	81
Nate Adcock R 2011 · 4.17 FIP	23	SU	4.17	13.6%	8.7%	2.0%	.289	4.39	14.9%	7.5%	35	+0.22	3.84	137	81
Connor Eller R 2016 · 4.35 FIP	22	SU	4.35	16.7%	7.5%	3.1%	.222	4.55	10.8%	-1.2%	136	+0.20	3.79	170	81
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.26	16.4%	8.7%	208	+1.06	4.20	277	81
Ryan Vogelsong R 2001 · 5.34 FIP	24	SU	5.34	14.6%	11.6%	3.7%	.287	4.78	14.9%	5.7%	155	-0.56	3.14	1,184	80
Thomas Balboni Jr. R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	23	SU	3.99	17.5%	10.9%	1.8%	.331	3.47	28.1%	14.3%	79	-0.52	2.99	122	80
Ignacio Marrujo R 2015 · 4.32 FIP	22	SW	4.32	13.0%	10.0%	1.9%	.220	6.08	8.7%	-1.0%	87	+1.76	4.32	150	80
Daniel Concepcion R 2016 · 5.87 FIP	22	SW	5.87	13.0%	10.6%	4.6%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	3.84	110	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	33	18.8%	9.1%	1.17	4.78
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Jeff Manship ('16)	1.1	32	16.5%	9.3%	1.05	4.82
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*