Nick Potter

P Fayetteville Woodpeckers

Age 23 RHP 6'4" / 195 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.7 · 2030

Overview

APROSPECTFG #733MiLBFA 2034

Scout OFP40ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	MIX2 levels	22	22	69	2.74	3.49	30.6%	12.8%	—	K 21.7% · BB 15.8% · FIP 4.47
2027PROJ	23	MLBHOU	11	11	62	5.22	5.22	22.6%	16.3%	-0.2
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBHOU	5	5	27	4.96	4.87	23.2%	14.3%	-0.0
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBHOU	7	7	43	4.78	4.68	23.6%	13.1%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$1M2032Ext$5M2033Ext$7M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control40Command40FB velo60

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 3, comp-based) · star 4% · didn't stick 84%

CompsDane Acker (age 23) · Levi Wells (age 22) · Braden Nett (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.22

FIP5.22

K%22.6%

BB%16.3%

K-BB%6.3%

Proj IP62

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4050

CTRL—40

CMD3040

K†5555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-1	$1M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$1.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	69	281	86	36	7	100%	3.1	21.7%	15.8%	5.9%	2.2%	2.74	4.47	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	69	281	86	36	7	100%	3.1	21.7%	15.8%	5.9%	2.2%	2.74	4.47	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	69	281	86	36	7	100%	3.1	30.6%	12.8%	17.8%	2.5%	2.74	3.49	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	HOU	11	11	62	262	59	43	8	100%	5.6	22.6%	16.3%	6.3%	2.9%	5.22	5.22	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	HOU	11	11	64	269	63	39	8	100%	5.8	23.2%	14.3%	8.9%	2.9%	5.00	4.91	-0.0
2029	25	MLB MLE	HOU	11	11	64	272	64	36	8	100%	5.9	23.6%	13.1%	10.5%	2.9%	4.82	4.72	+0.1
2030	26	MLB MLE	HOU	11	11	64	272	65	35	8	100%	5.9	23.8%	12.9%	10.9%	2.9%	4.73	4.68	+0.2
2031	27	MLB MLE	HOU	11	11	64	268	64	34	8	100%	5.8	23.8%	12.8%	10.9%	2.9%	4.71	4.71	+0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	HOU	5	5	27	114	26	16	3	100%	5.4	23.2%	14.3%	8.9%	2.8%	4.96	4.87	-0.0
2029	25	MLB CTX	HOU	7	7	43	182	43	24	5	100%	6.1	23.6%	13.1%	10.5%	2.8%	4.78	4.68	+0.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	HOU	8	8	51	215	51	28	6	100%	6.4	23.8%	12.9%	10.9%	2.8%	4.69	4.64	+0.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	HOU	9	9	54	228	54	29	7	100%	6.0	23.8%	12.8%	10.9%	2.9%	4.67	4.67	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		30	30	175	740	175	97	21	100%	5.8	23.7%	13.1%	10.5%	2.8%	4.74	4.31	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	200	111	24	100%	5.9	23.7%	13.1%	10.5%	2.8%	4.74	4.31	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		22	22	69	281	61	44	6	100%	3.1	21.7%	15.8%	5.9%	2.2%	2.74	4.47	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		64	64	200	814	177	129	18	100%	3.1	21.7%	15.8%	5.9%	2.2%	2.74	4.47	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nick Potter (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.22	22.6%	16.3%	2.9%	—	4.77	23.6%	10.1%	193	-0.45	—	—	—
Dane Acker R 2022 · 5.60 FIP	23	SP	5.60	19.3%	15.2%	4.0%	.284	4.39	20.2%	8.6%	215	-1.21	4.29	257	83
Levi Wells R 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	20.0%	12.1%	2.6%	.360	3.82	19.0%	10.2%	132	-0.53	3.70	192	81
Braden Nett R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	22	SP	4.15	20.3%	15.2%	1.5%	.287	4.60	19.8%	5.7%	142	+0.45	3.91	243	79
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	78
Blake Whitney R 2018 · 4.11 FIP	22	SP	4.11	19.1%	16.1%	1.1%	.338	6.22	25.6%	13.5%	33	+2.11	3.46	268	78
Alonzo Tredwell R 2024 · 4.43 FIP	22	SP-	4.43	19.3%	17.4%	1.4%	.336	4.19	22.0%	9.9%	100	-0.24	4.19	166	78
Jackson Fristoe R 2024 · 4.81 FIP	23	SP	4.81	18.8%	19.6%	1.5%	.266	6.79	13.5%	-4.0%	74	+1.98	4.81	139	77
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	452	77
Will Bednar R 2022 · 5.71 FIP	22	SP	5.71	20.5%	14.1%	4.7%	.173	4.78	26.6%	6.3%	95	-0.93	3.38	202	77
Lyon Richardson R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP	4.37	23.6%	15.6%	2.3%	.299	3.95	19.2%	8.3%	243	-0.42	3.69	538	77
Max Bain R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	23	SP	5.21	20.5%	15.2%	3.5%	.291	6.70	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.49	5.21	174	76
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.18	457	76
Khristian Curtis R 2024 · 5.48 FIP	22	SP	5.48	18.8%	14.4%	3.9%	.275	4.62	20.6%	8.4%	216	-0.86	4.60	291	76
Ryan Costeiu R 2024 · 4.35 FIP	23	SP	4.35	20.5%	13.6%	2.3%	.208	4.91	18.4%	7.9%	241	+0.56	4.34	397	75
Ryan Harvey R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	18.4%	15.9%	0.9%	.291	4.74	16.2%	7.8%	56	+0.66	4.08	133	75
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	75
Kyle Nicolas R 2022 · 4.41 FIP	23	SP	4.41	21.0%	13.3%	2.5%	.266	3.96	23.4%	11.8%	227	-0.45	3.25	464	75
Peter Heubeck R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	22	SP	4.08	23.0%	19.1%	0.9%	.267	5.18	22.4%	6.8%	86	+1.10	4.08	294	74
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	74
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	64	23.4%	13.9%	1.12	4.89
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*