Peter Heubeck P Tulsa Drillers
Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 170 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.6 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION20 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132123vR 114
ERA5.02
FIP5.02
K%23.4%
BB%15.8%
K-BB%7.6%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 85 IP
K: +1.8 runs (Runs saved by strikeouts vs lg-avg K%)+2KBB: -8.9 runs (Runs saved by walk suppression vs lg-avg BB%)-9BBCONTACT: -7.2 runs (Runs saved on contact quality (HR suppression) vs lg)-7CONTACTSTAM: +8.5 runs (Replacement credit for innings volume)+9STAMTotal WAR: -0.62 (85 IP)-0.6WAR
0.00.51.00.00.10.00.00.00.0-$11M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
projected WAR paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Scouting Grades
OFP45
STUF5055
CTRL3040
CMD3040
K†5555
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2027
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2032
First FA Year   2033
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.1$0.3M+$0.0M (cut)
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M
2030Arb-1$0.8M
2031Arb-2$1M
2032Arb-3$7M
Totals $0.0M $-0.4M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR GS%IP/G K%BB%K-BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
202119ROKACL Dodgers2141792050%2.052.9%11.8%41.2%0.0%0.000.12
202119ROKACL Dodgers2141792050%2.052.9%11.8%41.2%0.0%0.000.10
202220ARancho Cucamonga Quakes1513321424225787%2.121.9%20.8%1.1%4.3%7.396.24
202220ARancho Cucamonga Quakes1513321424225787%2.129.6%17.6%12.0%4.9%7.395.69
202321MIX2 levels252486375107431196%3.421.2%13.5%7.8%3.8%5.785.09
202321MIX2 levels252486375107431196%3.428.5%11.5%17.1%2.9%5.783.78
202422A+Great Lakes Loons242491391117653100%3.823.0%19.1%3.9%0.9%3.054.07
202422A+Great Lakes Loons242491391117653100%3.829.9%16.6%13.3%0.8%3.053.10
202523AATulsa Drillers16166627877346100%4.122.4%13.5%9.0%2.8%4.344.47
202523AATulsa Drillers16166627877346100%4.127.7%12.2%15.5%2.2%4.343.49
▸ 2026 Season
202624AATulsa Drillers10102010932226100%2.022.2%22.8%-0.7%6.8%11.077.85-0.8
ROS24MLBLAD12126527464438100%5.423.4%15.8%7.6%2.8%5.025.02-0.3
ROS24MLBLAD1114110100%1.023.4%15.8%7.6%2.7%4.984.98-0.0
2026 TOT24MLBLAD8538396651425.1%17.0%8.0%3.5%6.465.70-0.6
2026 FULL24MLBLAD1511023.4%15.8%7.6%2.7%4.984.60-0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202725MLBLAD12126828768408100%5.723.8%14.1%9.7%2.8%4.854.78-0.0
202826MLBLAD11116828769398100%6.223.9%13.7%10.3%2.8%4.764.720.0
202927MLBLAD11116728368388100%6.123.9%13.5%10.4%2.9%4.744.74-0.0
203028MLBLAD11116527465378100%5.923.8%13.6%10.2%3.0%4.784.81-0.1
203129MLBLAD10106226262368100%6.223.5%13.8%9.7%3.1%4.884.94-0.3
202725MLBLAD553012730183100%6.023.8%14.1%9.7%2.7%4.814.74-0.1
202826MLBLAD884519045265100%5.623.9%13.7%10.3%2.7%4.724.68-0.1
202927MLBLAD995222052306100%5.823.9%13.5%10.4%2.8%4.704.70-0.1
203028MLBLAD995523255317100%6.123.8%13.6%10.2%2.9%4.744.77-0.1
203129MLBLAD995422854317100%6.023.5%13.8%9.7%3.0%4.834.89-0.2
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career4040238100423913828100%5.923.8%13.7%10.1%2.8%4.764.38+2.8
/ 200 IP343420084420111624100%6.023.8%13.7%10.1%2.8%4.764.38+2.4
Career928829913122962193996%3.322.6%16.7%5.9%3.0%5.084.94+1.6
/ 200 IP61592008771981462696%3.322.6%16.7%5.9%3.0%5.084.94+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Peter Heubeck (OGILVIE) 5.02 23.4%15.8%2.8% 4.75 23.9%10.1%203 -0.27
Aaron Hernandez R 2026 · 4.45 FIP 24 SP 4.45 20.9%16.4%1.9%.329 5.26 18.8%5.1%59 +0.81 4.45 194 79
Winyer Chourio R 2024 · 4.50 FIP 22 SP 4.50 23.5%16.3%2.4%.307 4.30 156 78
Jacob Odle R 2024 · 4.96 FIP 22 SP 4.96 25.2%17.0%3.3%.290 4.44 104 78
David Lebron R 2027 · 4.18 FIP 25 SP- 4.18 18.6%14.2%1.6%.336 5.07 26.7%12.0%62 +0.89 4.18 144 77
Ryan Jensen R 2026 · 4.86 FIP 24 SP 4.86 18.8%16.6%2.3%.252 4.50 24.2%4.8%150 -0.36 4.20 311 77
Ryan Garcia R 2026 · 3.87 FIP 24 SP 3.87 23.2%10.7%2.5%.239 5.71 20.0%6.1%278 +1.84 3.87 325 77
Luis Quiñones R 2026 · 4.89 FIP 24 SP 4.89 26.6%21.5%2.4%.290 4.86 22.9%8.8%231 -0.03 3.93 323 77
Luke Gabrysh R 2025 · 5.55 FIP 23 SP 5.55 21.8%13.7%4.7%.278 4.59 138 75
Zach Fruit R 2026 · 4.26 FIP 24 SP 4.26 19.3%14.1%1.8%.258 4.83 15.4%-0.2%44 +0.57 4.26 151 74
J.P. Massey R 2026 · 4.62 FIP 24 SP 4.62 16.1%14.2%2.0%.283 5.64 15.5%-1.3%46 +1.02 4.62 195 74
Dane Acker R 2026 · 4.61 FIP 24 SP 4.61 21.3%14.1%2.8%.229 4.46 19.7%7.9%164 -0.15 4.23 257 74
Carlson Reed R 2025 · 5.27 FIP 23 SP- 5.27 16.9%15.4%3.0%.320 3.69 237 74
Shane Davis R 2024 · 4.08 FIP 22 SP 4.08 20.9%14.2%1.7%.286 4.08 129 73
J.P. France R 2026 · 5.38 FIP 24 SP- 5.38 17.9%13.9%3.7%.285 4.39 26.3%15.2%225 -0.99 4.11 563 73
Ryan Harvey R 2025 · 4.09 FIP 23 SP 4.09 18.4%15.9%1.0%.291 3.56 15.6%5.1%35 -0.53 3.56 112 73
Anderson Brito R 2024 · 4.73 FIP 22 SP 4.73 22.2%16.5%2.6%.325 3.24 135 72
Patrick Reilly R 2024 · 4.75 FIP 22 SP 4.75 23.2%13.6%3.4%.242 4.75 119 72
Griff McGarry R 2026 · 4.12 FIP 24 SP 4.12 25.9%17.1%1.9%.231 4.47 25.7%4.5%126 +0.35 2.46 273 72
Sean Mooney R 2026 · 4.82 FIP 24 SP- 4.82 24.7%13.5%3.8%.277 3.45 102 72
Ray Gaither R 2026 · 4.91 FIP 24 SP- 4.91 21.9%13.2%3.6%.314 4.49 18.6%4.7%123 -0.42 4.16 164 72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

PlayerYrsIP/yrK%BB%HR/9ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION66623.7%14.1%1.114.84
Amir Garrett ('23)65125.8%13.4%1.505.10
Fernando Rodney ('19)55924.6%11.8%0.884.21
Greg Holland ('21)64525.4%12.3%0.874.03
Miguel Castro ('23)75920.8%12.0%1.043.99
Daniel Bard ('23)45025.1%13.5%0.813.82
Lucas Sims ('24)64727.6%11.6%1.244.22