Peter Heubeck
P
Tulsa Drillers
Age 24
RHP
6'3" / 170 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 0.6 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION20 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132123vR 114
ERA5.02
FIP5.02
K%23.4%
BB%15.8%
K-BB%7.6%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 85 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | ACL Dodgers | 2 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 50% | 2.0 | 52.9% | 11.8% | 41.2% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.12 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | ACL Dodgers | 2 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 50% | 2.0 | 52.9% | 11.8% | 41.2% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.10 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | 15 | 13 | 32 | 142 | 42 | 25 | 7 | 87% | 2.1 | 21.9% | 20.8% | 1.1% | 4.3% | 7.39 | 6.24 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | 15 | 13 | 32 | 142 | 42 | 25 | 7 | 87% | 2.1 | 29.6% | 17.6% | 12.0% | 4.9% | 7.39 | 5.69 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 24 | 86 | 375 | 107 | 43 | 11 | 96% | 3.4 | 21.2% | 13.5% | 7.8% | 3.8% | 5.78 | 5.09 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 24 | 86 | 375 | 107 | 43 | 11 | 96% | 3.4 | 28.5% | 11.5% | 17.1% | 2.9% | 5.78 | 3.78 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Great Lakes Loons | 24 | 24 | 91 | 391 | 117 | 65 | 3 | 100% | 3.8 | 23.0% | 19.1% | 3.9% | 0.9% | 3.05 | 4.07 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Great Lakes Loons | 24 | 24 | 91 | 391 | 117 | 65 | 3 | 100% | 3.8 | 29.9% | 16.6% | 13.3% | 0.8% | 3.05 | 3.10 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 16 | 16 | 66 | 278 | 77 | 34 | 6 | 100% | 4.1 | 22.4% | 13.5% | 9.0% | 2.8% | 4.34 | 4.47 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 16 | 16 | 66 | 278 | 77 | 34 | 6 | 100% | 4.1 | 27.7% | 12.2% | 15.5% | 2.2% | 4.34 | 3.49 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 10 | 10 | 20 | 109 | 32 | 22 | 6 | 100% | 2.0 | 22.2% | 22.8% | -0.7% | 6.8% | 11.07 | 7.85 | -0.8 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | LAD | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 64 | 43 | 8 | 100% | 5.4 | 23.4% | 15.8% | 7.6% | 2.8% | 5.02 | 5.02 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | LAD | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 23.4% | 15.8% | 7.6% | 2.7% | 4.98 | 4.98 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 85 | 383 | 96 | 65 | 14 | — | — | 25.1% | 17.0% | 8.0% | 3.5% | 6.46 | 5.70 | -0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 23.4% | 15.8% | 7.6% | 2.7% | 4.98 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | LAD | 12 | 12 | 68 | 287 | 68 | 40 | 8 | 100% | 5.7 | 23.8% | 14.1% | 9.7% | 2.8% | 4.85 | 4.78 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | LAD | 11 | 11 | 68 | 287 | 69 | 39 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 23.9% | 13.7% | 10.3% | 2.8% | 4.76 | 4.72 | 0.0 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 11 | 11 | 67 | 283 | 68 | 38 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.9% | 13.5% | 10.4% | 2.9% | 4.74 | 4.74 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 65 | 37 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.8% | 13.6% | 10.2% | 3.0% | 4.78 | 4.81 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | LAD | 10 | 10 | 62 | 262 | 62 | 36 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 23.5% | 13.8% | 9.7% | 3.1% | 4.88 | 4.94 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | LAD | 5 | 5 | 30 | 127 | 30 | 18 | 3 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.8% | 14.1% | 9.7% | 2.7% | 4.81 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | LAD | 8 | 8 | 45 | 190 | 45 | 26 | 5 | 100% | 5.6 | 23.9% | 13.7% | 10.3% | 2.7% | 4.72 | 4.68 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 9 | 9 | 52 | 220 | 52 | 30 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.9% | 13.5% | 10.4% | 2.8% | 4.70 | 4.70 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 9 | 9 | 55 | 232 | 55 | 31 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.8% | 13.6% | 10.2% | 2.9% | 4.74 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | LAD | 9 | 9 | 54 | 228 | 54 | 31 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.5% | 13.8% | 9.7% | 3.0% | 4.83 | 4.89 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 40 | 40 | 238 | 1004 | 239 | 138 | 28 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.8% | 13.7% | 10.1% | 2.8% | 4.76 | 4.38 | +2.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 201 | 116 | 24 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.8% | 13.7% | 10.1% | 2.8% | 4.76 | 4.38 | +2.4 | ||
| Career | — | 92 | 88 | 299 | 1312 | 296 | 219 | 39 | 96% | 3.3 | 22.6% | 16.7% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 5.08 | 4.94 | +1.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 61 | 59 | 200 | 877 | 198 | 146 | 26 | 96% | 3.3 | 22.6% | 16.7% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 5.08 | 4.94 | +1.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Peter Heubeck (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.02 | 23.4% | 15.8% | 2.8% | — | 4.75 | 23.9% | 10.1% | 203 | -0.27 | — | — | — |
| Aaron Hernandez R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.45 | 20.9% | 16.4% | 1.9% | .329 | 5.26 | 18.8% | 5.1% | 59 | +0.81 | 4.45 | 194 | 79 |
| Winyer Chourio R 2024 · 4.50 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.50 | 23.5% | 16.3% | 2.4% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.30 | 156 | 78 |
| Jacob Odle R 2024 · 4.96 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.96 | 25.2% | 17.0% | 3.3% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.44 | 104 | 78 |
| David Lebron R 2027 · 4.18 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.18 | 18.6% | 14.2% | 1.6% | .336 | 5.07 | 26.7% | 12.0% | 62 | +0.89 | 4.18 | 144 | 77 |
| Ryan Jensen R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.86 | 18.8% | 16.6% | 2.3% | .252 | 4.50 | 24.2% | 4.8% | 150 | -0.36 | 4.20 | 311 | 77 |
| Ryan Garcia R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.87 | 23.2% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .239 | 5.71 | 20.0% | 6.1% | 278 | +1.84 | 3.87 | 325 | 77 |
| Luis Quiñones R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.89 | 26.6% | 21.5% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.86 | 22.9% | 8.8% | 231 | -0.03 | 3.93 | 323 | 77 |
| Luke Gabrysh R 2025 · 5.55 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.55 | 21.8% | 13.7% | 4.7% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.59 | 138 | 75 |
| Zach Fruit R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.26 | 19.3% | 14.1% | 1.8% | .258 | 4.83 | 15.4% | -0.2% | 44 | +0.57 | 4.26 | 151 | 74 |
| J.P. Massey R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.62 | 16.1% | 14.2% | 2.0% | .283 | 5.64 | 15.5% | -1.3% | 46 | +1.02 | 4.62 | 195 | 74 |
| Dane Acker R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.61 | 21.3% | 14.1% | 2.8% | .229 | 4.46 | 19.7% | 7.9% | 164 | -0.15 | 4.23 | 257 | 74 |
| Carlson Reed R 2025 · 5.27 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.27 | 16.9% | 15.4% | 3.0% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 237 | 74 |
| Shane Davis R 2024 · 4.08 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.08 | 20.9% | 14.2% | 1.7% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 129 | 73 |
| J.P. France R 2026 · 5.38 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.38 | 17.9% | 13.9% | 3.7% | .285 | 4.39 | 26.3% | 15.2% | 225 | -0.99 | 4.11 | 563 | 73 |
| Ryan Harvey R 2025 · 4.09 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.09 | 18.4% | 15.9% | 1.0% | .291 | 3.56 | 15.6% | 5.1% | 35 | -0.53 | 3.56 | 112 | 73 |
| Anderson Brito R 2024 · 4.73 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.73 | 22.2% | 16.5% | 2.6% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 135 | 72 |
| Patrick Reilly R 2024 · 4.75 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.75 | 23.2% | 13.6% | 3.4% | .242 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 119 | 72 |
| Griff McGarry R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.12 | 25.9% | 17.1% | 1.9% | .231 | 4.47 | 25.7% | 4.5% | 126 | +0.35 | 2.46 | 273 | 72 |
| Sean Mooney R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.82 | 24.7% | 13.5% | 3.8% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 102 | 72 |
| Ray Gaither R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.91 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 3.6% | .314 | 4.49 | 18.6% | 4.7% | 123 | -0.42 | 4.16 | 164 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 66 | 23.7% | 14.1% | 1.11 | 4.84 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |