Peter Heubeck — OGILVIE

Peter Heubeck P Tulsa Drillers

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 170 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.9 · 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION20 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.09

FIP5.09

K%23.4%

BB%16.4%

K-BB%7.0%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5055

CTRL3040

CMD3040

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$2M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	19	ROK MLE	ACL Dodgers	2	1	4	17	9	2	0	50%	2.0	52.9%	11.8%	41.2%	0.0%	0.00	0.12	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	ACL Dodgers	2	1	4	17	9	2	0	50%	2.0	52.9%	11.8%	41.2%	0.0%	0.00	0.10	—
2022	20	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	15	13	32	142	42	25	7	87%	2.1	21.9%	20.8%	1.1%	5.1%	7.39	6.70	—
2022	20	A RAW	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	15	13	32	142	42	25	7	87%	2.1	29.6%	17.6%	12.0%	4.9%	7.39	5.69	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	24	86	375	107	43	11	96%	3.4	21.2%	13.5%	7.8%	3.8%	5.78	5.08	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	24	86	375	107	43	11	96%	3.4	21.2%	13.5%	7.8%	3.8%	5.78	5.08	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	24	86	375	107	43	11	96%	3.4	28.5%	11.5%	17.1%	2.9%	5.78	3.78	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	24	24	91	391	117	65	3	100%	3.8	23.0%	19.1%	3.9%	0.9%	3.05	4.08	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	24	24	91	391	117	65	3	100%	3.8	23.0%	19.1%	3.9%	0.9%	3.05	4.08	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	Great Lakes Loons	24	24	91	391	117	65	3	100%	3.8	29.9%	16.6%	13.3%	0.8%	3.05	3.10	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	16	16	66	278	77	34	6	100%	4.1	22.4%	13.5%	9.0%	2.7%	4.34	4.40	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	16	16	66	278	77	34	6	100%	4.1	22.4%	13.5%	9.0%	2.7%	4.34	4.40	—
2025	23	AA RAW	Tulsa Drillers	16	16	66	278	77	34	6	100%	4.1	27.7%	12.2%	15.5%	2.2%	4.34	3.49	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	10	10	20	109	32	22	6	100%	2.0	22.2%	22.8%	-0.7%	6.8%	11.07	7.85	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	10	10	20	109	32	22	6	100%	2.0	22.2%	22.8%	-0.7%	6.8%	11.07	7.85	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	ROK RAW	LAD	1	1	1	3	3	0	0	100%	1.0	100.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.00	-5.34	—
2026	24	AA RAW	LAD	9	9	19	106	29	22	6	100%	2.1	27.4%	20.8%	6.6%	5.7%	11.64	6.53	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	LAD	1	1	6	26	6	4	1	100%	6.1	23.4%	16.4%	7.0%	2.7%	5.09	5.09	-0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	LAD	—	—	26	135	38	26	7	—	—	28.2%	19.5%	8.7%	5.0%	9.69	7.21	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	LAD	14	14	83	351	83	51	10	100%	5.9	23.6%	14.4%	9.2%	2.7%	4.89	4.82	+0.1
2028	26	MLB MLE	LAD	14	14	83	351	83	49	10	100%	5.9	23.7%	13.9%	9.8%	2.8%	4.79	4.76	+0.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	LAD	14	14	82	346	82	47	10	100%	5.9	23.6%	13.7%	9.9%	2.8%	4.77	4.77	+0.1
2030	28	MLB MLE	LAD	13	13	80	336	85	43	10	100%	6.1	25.4%	12.9%	12.6%	2.9%	4.65	4.57	+0.3
2031	29	MLB MLE	LAD	13	13	76	320	81	42	10	100%	5.8	25.2%	13.1%	12.1%	3.1%	4.68	4.70	+0.2
2032	30	MLB MLE	LAD	12	12	71	301	75	40	10	100%	5.9	24.8%	13.4%	11.5%	3.3%	4.80	4.88	+0.0
2027	25	MLB CTX	LAD	6	6	36	152	36	22	4	100%	6.0	23.6%	14.4%	9.2%	2.9%	4.95	4.88	+0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	LAD	9	9	56	236	56	33	7	100%	6.2	23.7%	13.9%	9.8%	2.9%	4.85	4.82	+0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	LAD	11	11	64	270	64	37	8	100%	5.8	23.6%	13.7%	9.9%	2.9%	4.84	4.84	+0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	LAD	11	11	67	283	72	36	9	100%	6.1	25.4%	12.9%	12.6%	3.1%	4.72	4.64	+0.3
2031	29	MLB CTX	LAD	11	11	67	283	71	37	9	100%	6.1	25.2%	13.1%	12.1%	3.2%	4.75	4.77	+0.2
2032	30	MLB CTX	LAD	11	11	64	270	67	36	9	100%	5.8	24.8%	13.4%	11.5%	3.4%	4.88	4.96	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		59	59	354	1493	366	201	46	100%	6.0	24.5%	13.5%	11.0%	3.1%	4.82	4.43	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	207	114	26	100%	6.0	24.5%	13.5%	11.0%	3.1%	4.82	4.43	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		92	88	299	1312	296	219	40	96%	3.3	22.6%	16.7%	5.9%	3.0%	5.08	4.98	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	59	200	877	198	146	27	96%	3.3	22.6%	16.7%	5.9%	3.0%	5.08	4.98	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Peter Heubeck (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.09	23.4%	16.4%	2.7%	—	4.78	23.6%	9.6%	248	-0.31	—	—	—
Aaron Hernandez R 2021 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP	4.65	20.9%	16.4%	2.2%	.329	5.37	18.7%	5.7%	59	+0.72	4.65	194	80
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	79
Peyton Pallette R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	15.1%	3.8%	.254	4.00	23.2%	11.3%	197	-1.56	3.60	269	79
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	78
Ryan Jensen R 2022 · 4.87 FIP	24	SP	4.87	18.8%	16.6%	2.3%	.252	4.40	23.1%	6.0%	150	-0.47	4.00	311	78
Trace Bright R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	22	SP-	4.26	26.3%	14.7%	2.8%	.297	4.83	19.2%	5.8%	313	+0.57	4.26	413	77
Luis Quiñones R 2021 · 4.82 FIP	24	SP	4.82	26.6%	21.5%	2.2%	.290	4.81	22.5%	9.1%	231	-0.01	3.75	326	77
Jacob Watters R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	22	SP	4.87	18.3%	17.1%	2.1%	.319	4.38	17.0%	5.1%	81	-0.49	3.85	165	77
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	77
Hunter Parks R 2023 · 5.15 FIP	22	SP	5.15	18.9%	19.3%	2.2%	.265	5.04	20.3%	3.9%	136	-0.11	4.62	298	77
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	75
Will Bednar R 2022 · 5.71 FIP	22	SP	5.71	20.5%	14.1%	4.7%	.173	4.78	26.6%	6.3%	95	-0.93	3.38	198	74
Lyon Richardson R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP	4.39	23.3%	15.6%	2.3%	.299	4.02	18.6%	7.6%	240	-0.37	3.71	535	73
Dane Acker R 2023 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.3%	14.1%	2.7%	.229	4.41	19.2%	8.2%	164	-0.14	4.34	257	73
Shane Davis R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	22	SP	4.19	20.9%	14.2%	1.9%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	4.19	129	73
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	73
Henry Williams R 2023 · 5.59 FIP	21	SP	5.59	16.5%	14.2%	3.8%	.271	4.67	16.8%	7.0%	338	-0.92	4.16	404	72
Griff McGarry R 2023 · 4.17 FIP	24	SP	4.17	25.9%	17.1%	2.0%	.231	4.40	25.2%	5.5%	131	+0.23	2.46	278	72
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	72
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	71

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.7	77	24.2%	13.9%	1.12	4.80
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Michael Kopech ('24)	1.9	96	26.1%	12.5%	1.45	4.15
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04