Peter Heubeck — OGILVIE

Peter Heubeck P Tulsa Drillers

+0.3 WAR

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 170 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.6 · 2028

ERA4.66

FIP4.66

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%22.9%

BB%12.7%

K-BB%10.2%

IP76

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.6peak

2028

K†5555

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2021	19	ROK	ACL Dodgers	2	1	4	17	9	2	0	—	—	—	0.00	—	—
2022	20	A	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	15	13	32	142	42	25	7	21.9%	20.8%	5.0%	7.39	6.65	-0.6
2023	21	A+	Great Lakes Loons	25	24	86	375	107	43	11	21.2%	13.5%	3.8%	5.78	5.10	+0.1
2024	22	A+	Great Lakes Loons	24	24	91	391	117	65	3	23.0%	19.1%	0.9%	3.05	4.09	+1.2
2025	23	AA	Tulsa Drillers	16	16	66	278	77	34	6	22.4%	13.5%	2.7%	4.34	4.40	+0.5
▸ 2026 Season
2026	24	MLB	LAD	14	14	76	320	73	41	9	22.9%	12.7%	2.7%	4.66	4.66	+0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	25	MLB	LAD	14	14	77	324	76	37	9	23.3%	11.5%	2.8%	4.54	4.48	+0.5
2028	26	MLB	LAD	14	14	77	324	76	37	9	23.5%	11.3%	2.8%	4.48	4.44	+0.6
2029	27	MLB	LAD	14	14	76	321	76	36	9	23.5%	11.2%	2.8%	4.46	4.45	+0.6
2030	28	MLB	LAD	14	14	75	317	74	35	9	23.5%	11.2%	2.8%	4.46	4.47	+0.5
2031	29	MLB	LAD	13	13	73	309	72	35	9	23.4%	11.3%	2.9%	4.49	4.51	+0.5
2032	30	MLB	LAD	13	13	71	300	70	34	9	23.2%	11.4%	2.9%	4.54	4.58	+0.4
2033	31	MLB	LAD	12	12	69	290	66	33	9	22.9%	11.5%	3.0%	4.61	4.65	+0.3
2034	32	MLB	LAD	12	12	66	278	63	32	9	22.7%	11.7%	3.1%	4.69	4.74	+0.2
2035	33	MLB	LAD	11	11	63	266	59	31	8	22.4%	11.8%	3.2%	4.78	4.84	+0.1
2036	34	MLB	LAD	60	—	60	252	56	30	8	22.0%	12.0%	3.3%	4.88	4.95	0.0
2037	35	MLB	LAD	56	—	56	238	51	29	8	21.6%	12.3%	3.4%	4.99	5.07	-0.1
2038	36	MLB	LAD	53	—	53	223	47	28	8	21.2%	12.5%	3.5%	5.12	5.20	-0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			82	78	279	1203	272	194	33	22.6%	16.1%	2.7%	4.65	4.72	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—			59	56	200	862	195	139	24	22.6%	16.1%	2.7%	4.65	4.72	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Peter Heubeck (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.66	22.9%	12.7%	2.7%	—	4.46	23.5%	12.1%	230	-0.20	—	—	—
Ben Hecht R 2026 · 4.51 FIP	24	SW	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.42	155	91
Brandon Johnson R 2026 · 4.91 FIP	24	SW	4.91	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.68	22.3%	12.1%	127	-0.23	3.38	188	91
Aaron Kurcz R 2026 · 4.00 FIP	24	SW	4.00	22.4%	13.6%	2.0%	.331	4.03	16.1%	8.0%	105	+0.03	3.31	213	90
Craig Schlitter R 2026 · 4.61 FIP	24	SW	4.61	22.7%	15.4%	2.7%	.298	4.70	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.09	4.23	222	90
Tommy Kahnle R 2027 · 4.17 FIP	25	SW	4.17	23.8%	14.8%	2.2%	.284	2.58	30.9%	21.0%	165	-1.59	1.53	433	90
Todd Van Steensel R 2026 · 3.78 FIP	24	SW	3.78	22.5%	11.6%	2.0%	.294	3.31	19.3%	6.5%	157	-0.47	2.87	223	90
Luis Ramirez R 2026 · 3.73 FIP	24	SW	3.73	24.0%	12.6%	1.9%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	104	89
Mason Vinyard R 2026 · 3.74 FIP	24	SW	3.74	22.7%	13.6%	1.5%	.270	4.00	22.6%	8.2%	94	+0.26	3.60	154	89
Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2026 · 4.58 FIP	24	SW	4.58	21.0%	13.2%	2.9%	.341	4.72	15.7%	4.0%	343	+0.14	4.04	404	89
Max Alba R 2026 · 4.50 FIP	24	SW	4.50	20.6%	12.6%	2.8%	.290	4.91	17.8%	11.6%	162	+0.41	4.50	217	88
Peter Tago R 2026 · 3.66 FIP	24	SW	3.66	24.4%	14.0%	1.5%	.303	3.44	23.6%	8.3%	39	-0.22	3.26	207	88
Andrew Politi R 2025 · 3.61 FIP	23	SW	3.61	22.6%	13.0%	1.4%	.274	4.36	23.4%	13.0%	144	+0.75	3.37	292	88
Barrett Loseke R 2026 · 4.63 FIP	24	SW	4.63	26.2%	12.8%	3.9%	.282	4.67	22.3%	11.4%	86	+0.04	4.41	152	88
Carlos Contreras R 2026 · 4.31 FIP	24	SW	4.31	22.2%	15.6%	2.0%	.271	4.48	11.9%	2.4%	40	+0.17	4.31	107	88
Zack Jones R 2026 · 3.56 FIP	24	SW	3.56	23.9%	14.0%	1.3%	.280	3.63	28.1%	10.9%	57	+0.07	2.56	109	87
Drew Rasmussen R 2026 · 3.64 FIP	24	SW	3.64	24.6%	12.6%	1.8%	.312	3.22	22.7%	16.2%	237	-0.42	1.21	538	87
Pat Light R 2026 · 4.34 FIP	24	SW	4.34	20.9%	14.5%	2.1%	.270	4.39	16.4%	2.8%	110	+0.05	4.15	172	86
Bud Jeter R 2026 · 3.71 FIP	24	SW	3.71	22.0%	13.8%	1.3%	.318	3.65	21.4%	10.4%	101	-0.06	3.12	226	86
Shane Broyles R 2026 · 4.02 FIP	24	SW	4.02	24.3%	15.3%	1.9%	.328	3.62	26.4%	17.1%	108	-0.40	3.30	218	86
Cody Tucker R 2027 · 4.99 FIP	25	SW	4.99	22.0%	12.0%	4.1%	.272	5.30	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.31	4.99	105	86

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$3M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2032	Arb-1	$0.6M	+0.4	$2M	+$1M
2033	Arb-2	$0.7M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.8M
2034	Arb-3	$0.6M	+0.2	$1M	+$0.4M
Totals		$4M		$12M	+$7M