Nick Potter — OGILVIE

Nick Potter P Fayetteville Woodpeckers

Age 22 RHP 6'4" / 195 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.1 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 31 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.89

FIP4.89

K%23.9%

BB%14.0%

K-BB%9.9%

ROS IP31

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 31 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$7M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4050

CTRL—40

CMD3040

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M
2032	Arb-2	$3M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$3M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$4M		$6M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	22	22	69	281	86	36	7	100%	3.1	22.8%	15.1%	7.7%	3.2%	2.74	4.83	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	22	22	69	281	86	36	7	100%	3.1	22.8%	15.1%	7.7%	3.2%	2.74	4.83	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	HOU	17	17	60	239	70	32	4	100%	3.5	29.3%	13.4%	15.9%	1.7%	2.11	3.24	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	HOU	5	5	9	42	16	4	3	100%	1.9	38.1%	9.5%	28.6%	7.1%	6.75	5.01	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	HOU	13	13	70	296	73	37	9	100%	5.4	24.6%	12.6%	12.0%	3.0%	4.71	4.63	+0.2
2028	24	MLB MLE	HOU	13	13	72	304	76	36	9	100%	5.5	25.1%	11.7%	13.4%	2.9%	4.55	4.46	+0.4
2029	25	MLB MLE	HOU	12	12	73	307	78	34	9	100%	6.1	25.4%	11.2%	14.2%	2.9%	4.43	4.36	+0.5
2030	26	MLB MLE	HOU	12	12	73	307	78	34	9	100%	6.1	25.5%	11.1%	14.4%	2.9%	4.37	4.34	+0.5
2031	27	MLB MLE	HOU	12	12	72	303	77	34	9	100%	6.0	25.5%	11.2%	14.4%	3.0%	4.37	4.38	+0.4
2032	28	MLB MLE	HOU	12	12	70	293	74	33	9	100%	5.8	25.4%	11.3%	14.1%	3.1%	4.42	4.46	+0.4
2033	29	MLB MLE	HOU	11	11	66	280	70	32	9	100%	6.0	25.1%	11.5%	13.6%	3.2%	4.52	4.59	+0.2
2034	30	MLB MLE	HOU	10	10	62	263	65	31	9	100%	6.2	24.8%	11.8%	13.0%	3.4%	4.67	4.77	+0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	HOU	6	6	34	144	35	18	4	100%	5.7	24.6%	12.6%	12.0%	2.9%	4.67	4.59	+0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	HOU	9	9	50	211	53	25	6	100%	5.6	25.1%	11.7%	13.4%	2.9%	4.51	4.42	+0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	HOU	10	10	59	249	63	28	7	100%	5.9	25.4%	11.2%	14.2%	2.8%	4.39	4.32	+0.4
2030	26	MLB CTX	HOU	11	11	64	270	69	30	8	100%	5.8	25.5%	11.1%	14.4%	2.9%	4.33	4.30	+0.4
2031	27	MLB CTX	HOU	11	11	65	274	70	31	8	100%	5.9	25.5%	11.2%	14.4%	2.9%	4.32	4.33	+0.4
2032	28	MLB CTX	HOU	11	11	64	270	69	31	8	100%	5.8	25.4%	11.3%	14.1%	3.0%	4.37	4.41	+0.3
2033	29	MLB CTX	HOU	10	10	62	262	66	30	8	100%	6.2	25.1%	11.5%	13.6%	3.1%	4.47	4.54	+0.2
2034	30	MLB CTX	HOU	10	10	58	245	61	29	8	100%	5.8	24.8%	11.8%	13.0%	3.3%	4.62	4.72	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		78	78	456	1926	486	221	57	100%	5.8	25.2%	11.5%	13.7%	3.0%	4.44	4.06	+4.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	213	97	25	100%	5.9	25.2%	11.5%	13.7%	3.0%	4.44	4.06	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		22	22	69	281	64	42	9	100%	3.1	22.8%	15.1%	7.7%	3.2%	2.74	4.83	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		64	64	200	814	186	123	26	100%	3.1	22.8%	15.1%	7.7%	3.2%	2.74	4.83	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nick Potter (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.89	23.9%	14.0%	3.0%	—	4.48	25.0%	13.2%	215	-0.41	—	—	—
Dane Acker R 2022 · 5.60 FIP	23	SP	5.60	19.3%	15.2%	4.0%	.284	4.41	20.0%	8.4%	215	-1.19	4.34	257	82
Rayner Urbaez R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	20	SP	3.88	23.6%	11.4%	2.4%	.337	3.35	15.0%	3.0%	27	-0.53	2.55	103	81
James Proctor R 2021 · 3.99 FIP	23	SP	3.99	22.0%	15.2%	1.5%	.277	4.39	14.0%	1.5%	48	+0.40	3.99	109	80
River Ryan R 2022 · 3.69 FIP	23	SP	3.69	26.1%	12.2%	2.3%	.321	3.89	20.2%	9.1%	134	+0.20	2.11	220	80
Carmen Mlodzinski R 2021 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	10.8%	3.3%	.311	3.87	20.6%	11.1%	236	-0.46	3.17	515	80
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	80
Carlos Lagrange R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	20	SP	4.34	22.1%	15.5%	2.1%	.291	3.97	25.4%	12.1%	198	-0.37	3.66	272	79
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.55	19.5%	6.3%	278	+1.81	3.74	362	79
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.92	22.1%	6.6%	260	-0.02	4.21	412	78
Will Bednar R 2022 · 5.71 FIP	22	SP	5.71	20.5%	14.1%	4.7%	.173	4.78	26.6%	6.3%	95	-0.93	3.38	198	78
Dylan Lesko R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	19	SP	4.34	26.8%	18.3%	2.2%	.333	6.78	17.8%	-7.7%	124	+2.44	4.34	152	77
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	451	77
Brandon Young R 2021 · 4.13 FIP	22	SP	4.13	24.5%	12.3%	2.8%	.297	3.52	21.7%	14.1%	150	-0.61	3.08	476	77
Kohl Franklin R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	17.8%	14.6%	3.3%	.320	5.66	19.9%	7.9%	105	+0.42	4.68	198	77
Jharold Clemente R 2023 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	17.5%	13.6%	3.0%	.258	5.11	13.3%	4.3%	92	+0.14	4.09	116	77
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	76
Tanner McDougal R 2023 · 4.96 FIP	20	SP	4.96	19.7%	16.9%	2.5%	.285	4.86	21.2%	7.8%	249	-0.10	3.82	319	76
Blake Whitney R 2018 · 4.11 FIP	22	SP	4.11	19.1%	16.1%	1.1%	.338	6.22	25.6%	13.5%	33	+2.11	3.46	268	75
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.22	21.7%	13.8%	422	+0.36	3.71	565	75
Tanner Burns R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	22.2%	10.6%	3.2%	.292	5.32	19.2%	6.3%	244	+0.98	4.34	382	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	65	25.1%	11.7%	1.18	4.52
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33