Nick Potter — OGILVIE

Nick Potter P Fayetteville Woodpeckers

Age 22 RHP 6'4" / 195 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.6 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION49 act + 51 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126117vR 108

ERA4.74

FIP4.74

K%23.1%

BB%12.4%

K-BB%10.7%

ROS IP51

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 100 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4050

CTRL—40

CMD3040

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2031	Arb-1	$1M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$2M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ 2026 Season
2026	22	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	14	14	49	196	55	26	4	100%	3.5	20.8%	15.7%	5.1%	2.7%	2.19	4.79	-0.1
ROS	22	MLB	HOU	9	9	51	214	49	26	6	100%	5.6	23.1%	12.4%	10.7%	3.0%	4.74	4.74	-0.1
ROS	22	MLB	HOU	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.1%	12.4%	10.7%	3.1%	4.79	4.79	—
2026 TOT	22	MLB	HOU	—	—	100	410	104	52	10	—	—	25.4%	12.8%	12.7%	2.5%	3.48	4.76	+0.7
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	HOU	10	10	53	222	53	25	7	100%	5.3	23.8%	11.4%	12.4%	2.9%	4.60	4.53	+0.0
2028	24	MLB	HOU	10	10	54	228	55	25	7	100%	5.4	24.3%	10.8%	13.6%	2.9%	4.47	4.39	+0.1
2029	25	MLB	HOU	9	9	55	231	57	24	7	100%	6.1	24.7%	10.4%	14.2%	2.9%	4.38	4.32	+0.1
2030	26	MLB	HOU	9	9	55	231	57	24	7	100%	6.1	24.8%	10.4%	14.5%	2.9%	4.33	4.30	+0.2
2031	27	MLB	HOU	9	9	54	227	56	24	7	100%	6.0	24.8%	10.4%	14.4%	3.0%	4.33	4.33	+0.1
2032	28	MLB	HOU	9	9	52	220	54	23	7	100%	5.8	24.7%	10.6%	14.1%	3.1%	4.38	4.42	+0.1
2033	29	MLB	HOU	8	8	50	211	52	23	7	100%	6.2	24.5%	10.8%	13.6%	3.2%	4.48	4.55	0.0
2034	30	MLB	HOU	8	8	47	198	48	22	7	100%	5.9	24.1%	11.1%	13.0%	3.4%	4.63	4.73	-0.1
2027	23	MLB	HOU	5	5	26	110	26	12	3	100%	5.2	23.8%	11.4%	12.4%	3.0%	4.65	4.58	-0.0
2028	24	MLB	HOU	7	7	38	160	39	17	5	100%	5.4	24.3%	10.8%	13.6%	3.0%	4.52	4.44	+0.0
2029	25	MLB	HOU	8	8	44	186	46	19	6	100%	5.5	24.7%	10.4%	14.2%	3.0%	4.43	4.37	+0.1
2030	26	MLB	HOU	8	8	48	203	50	21	6	100%	6.0	24.8%	10.4%	14.5%	3.0%	4.38	4.35	+0.1
2031	27	MLB	HOU	8	8	49	207	51	22	6	100%	6.1	24.8%	10.4%	14.4%	3.1%	4.38	4.38	+0.1
2032	28	MLB	HOU	8	8	48	203	50	21	6	100%	6.0	24.7%	10.6%	14.1%	3.2%	4.43	4.47	+0.0
2033	29	MLB	HOU	8	8	46	194	48	21	6	100%	5.8	24.5%	10.8%	13.6%	3.3%	4.53	4.60	-0.0
2034	30	MLB	HOU	7	7	44	186	45	21	7	100%	6.3	24.1%	11.1%	13.0%	3.5%	4.69	4.79	-0.1
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			58	58	342	1446	354	155	45	100%	5.9	24.5%	10.7%	13.8%	3.1%	4.49	4.11	+5.2
/ 200 IP	—			34	34	200	844	207	91	26	100%	5.9	24.5%	10.7%	13.8%	3.1%	4.49	4.11	+3.0
Career	—			14	14	49	196	41	31	5	100%	3.5	20.8%	15.7%	5.1%	2.7%	2.19	4.79	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—			57	57	200	795	165	124	21	100%	3.5	20.8%	15.7%	5.1%	2.7%	2.19	4.79	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nick Potter (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.74	23.1%	12.4%	3.0%	—	4.41	24.3%	13.4%	161	-0.33	—	—	—
Nate Dohm R 2026 · 4.86 FIP	22	SP	4.86	21.1%	11.5%	3.8%	.309	4.59	17.7%	2.6%	40	-0.27	4.59	115	88
Jaxon Wiggins R 2026 · 3.61 FIP	22	SP	3.61	22.5%	12.8%	1.4%	.286	3.29	24.5%	11.4%	79	-0.32	3.12	132	87
Tanner Burns R 2026 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	22.2%	10.6%	2.8%	.292	5.42	19.5%	6.0%	244	+1.35	4.07	378	85
Ryan Garcia R 2028 · 3.87 FIP	24	SP	3.87	23.2%	10.7%	2.5%	.239	5.71	20.0%	6.1%	278	+1.84	3.87	325	85
Levi Wells R 2026 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP	4.32	20.0%	12.1%	2.5%	.360	3.85	19.2%	9.8%	132	-0.47	3.70	192	85
Carmen Mlodzinski R 2026 · 4.04 FIP	22	SP	4.04	23.1%	10.8%	2.8%	.311	3.85	20.9%	11.1%	236	-0.19	3.12	482	85
Brandon Young R 2026 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.5%	12.3%	2.7%	.297	3.46	22.4%	14.1%	150	-0.61	3.11	420	84
Mike Vasil R 2026 · 3.71 FIP	22	SP	3.71	21.9%	10.5%	2.0%	.264	4.60	19.1%	9.4%	359	+0.89	3.71	429	83
Christian Roa R 2026 · 5.02 FIP	22	SP	5.02	19.6%	12.4%	3.6%	.321	4.92	22.7%	6.2%	260	-0.10	4.38	406	83
Chad Patrick R 2027 · 3.92 FIP	23	SP	3.92	20.3%	9.9%	2.3%	.315	4.36	22.3%	13.8%	422	+0.44	3.76	537	83
CJ Van Eyk R 2026 · 5.01 FIP	22	SP	5.01	21.8%	12.7%	3.9%	.302	4.47	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.54	3.95	411	82
TJ Shook R 2027 · 4.82 FIP	23	SP	4.82	21.7%	13.8%	3.3%	.311	5.12	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.30	3.36	432	82
Chih-Jung Liu R 2026 · 4.72 FIP	22	SP	4.72	18.8%	10.5%	3.4%	.331	6.04	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.32	4.72	283	82
James Proctor R 2027 · 4.02 FIP	23	SP	4.02	22.0%	15.2%	1.6%	.277	4.35	14.0%	1.5%	48	+0.33	4.02	109	82
Chad Donato R 2026 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.91	439	81
Ryan Jensen R 2027 · 5.00 FIP	23	SP	5.00	21.4%	10.8%	4.2%	.236	4.59	22.3%	3.9%	180	-0.41	4.20	311	81
River Ryan R 2027 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	26.1%	12.2%	2.1%	.321	3.86	20.4%	9.1%	134	+0.28	2.13	218	81
Cody Laweryson R 2027 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP	4.23	21.7%	8.4%	3.5%	.329	3.55	21.5%	12.4%	178	-0.68	2.49	298	80
Will Bednar R 2026 · 5.57 FIP	22	SP	5.57	20.5%	14.1%	4.4%	.173	4.70	26.6%	6.3%	95	-0.87	3.32	172	79
Jared Karros R 2026 · 4.72 FIP	22	SP	4.72	19.0%	8.9%	3.8%	.290	5.32	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.60	3.31	191	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	9	52	24.3%	10.9%	1.17	4.48
Buck Farmer ('24)	10	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Jacob Barnes ('24)	7	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Hansel Robles ('22)	7	59	25.3%	10.1%	1.16	3.86
Joe Kelly ('24)	9	56	24.6%	10.3%	0.81	4.40
Brad Boxberger ('23)	8	43	27.1%	11.7%	1.17	3.86
Bryan Shaw ('23)	8	64	21.4%	9.4%	1.12	4.19