Dylan Lesko — OGILVIE

Dylan Lesko P Charleston RiverDogs

Age 22 RHP 6'2" / 195 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 157149vR 141

ERA6.51

FIP6.51

K%19.7%

BB%23.5%

K-BB%-3.9%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4560

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	19	MIX MLE	3 levels	12	12	33	145	52	22	3	100%	2.8	26.8%	18.3%	8.5%	2.2%	5.45	4.34	—
2023	19	MIX MLE	3 levels	12	12	33	145	52	22	3	100%	2.8	26.8%	18.3%	8.5%	2.2%	5.45	4.34	—
2023	19	MIX RAW	3 levels	12	12	33	145	52	22	3	100%	2.8	35.9%	15.2%	20.7%	2.1%	5.45	3.13	—
2024	20	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	22	19	84	390	100	75	13	86%	3.8	19.7%	22.1%	-2.4%	4.1%	6.96	6.49	—
2024	20	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	22	19	84	390	100	75	13	86%	3.8	19.7%	22.1%	-2.4%	4.1%	6.96	6.49	—
2024	20	A+ RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	22	19	84	390	100	75	13	86%	3.8	25.6%	19.2%	6.4%	3.3%	6.96	5.41	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	1	18	103	18	33	2	6%	1.0	8.6%	41.3%	-32.7%	1.9%	10.50	8.63	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	1	18	103	18	33	2	6%	1.0	8.6%	41.3%	-32.7%	1.9%	10.50	8.63	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	1	18	103	18	33	2	6%	1.0	17.5%	32.0%	-14.6%	1.9%	10.50	8.04	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	25	0	30	148	31	37	3	0%	1.2	15.5%	29.5%	-14.0%	2.6%	9.71	6.97	—
YTD	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	25	0	30	148	31	37	3	0%	1.2	15.5%	29.5%	-14.0%	2.6%	9.71	6.97	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	TB	25	0	30	148	31	37	3	0%	1.2	20.9%	25.0%	-4.1%	2.0%	9.71	5.61	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	TB	75	0	78	331	69	64	10	0%	1.0	21.0%	19.4%	1.6%	3.1%	6.02	5.84	-1.1
2028	24	MLB MLE	TB	77	0	80	339	74	56	10	0%	1.0	21.7%	16.6%	5.1%	3.0%	5.60	5.40	-0.8
2029	25	MLB MLE	TB	78	0	81	344	76	50	10	0%	1.0	22.1%	14.6%	7.5%	3.0%	5.29	5.12	-0.5
2030	26	MLB MLE	TB	78	0	81	344	77	49	10	0%	1.0	22.3%	14.4%	7.9%	3.0%	5.15	5.07	-0.5
2031	27	MLB MLE	TB	76	0	80	339	75	49	10	0%	1.1	22.3%	14.5%	7.8%	3.1%	5.13	5.11	-0.5
2032	28	MLB MLE	TB	74	0	78	328	79	45	10	0%	1.1	24.1%	13.8%	10.3%	3.2%	5.01	4.92	-0.3
2033	29	MLB MLE	TB	71	0	74	314	75	44	10	0%	1.0	23.9%	14.0%	9.9%	3.3%	5.04	5.06	-0.4
2034	30	MLB MLE	TB	66	0	70	295	69	42	10	0%	1.1	23.5%	14.3%	9.2%	3.5%	5.16	5.23	-0.5
2027	23	MLB CTX	TB	37	0	39	165	35	32	5	0%	1.1	21.0%	19.4%	1.6%	3.1%	6.02	5.84	-0.5
2028	24	MLB CTX	TB	53	0	56	236	51	39	7	0%	1.1	21.7%	16.6%	5.1%	3.0%	5.60	5.40	-0.5
2029	25	MLB CTX	TB	63	0	66	279	62	41	8	0%	1.0	22.1%	14.6%	7.5%	3.0%	5.29	5.12	-0.4
2030	26	MLB CTX	TB	68	0	71	300	67	43	9	0%	1.0	22.3%	14.4%	7.9%	3.0%	5.15	5.07	-0.4
2031	27	MLB CTX	TB	69	0	72	304	68	44	9	0%	1.0	22.3%	14.5%	7.8%	3.1%	5.13	5.11	-0.5
2032	28	MLB CTX	TB	69	0	72	304	73	42	10	0%	1.0	24.1%	13.8%	10.3%	3.2%	5.01	4.92	-0.3
2033	29	MLB CTX	TB	66	0	69	291	70	41	10	0%	1.0	23.9%	14.0%	9.9%	3.3%	5.04	5.06	-0.4
2034	30	MLB CTX	TB	62	0	65	274	65	39	10	0%	1.0	23.5%	14.3%	9.2%	3.5%	5.16	5.23	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		486	0	510	2155	490	321	68	0%	1.1	22.7%	14.9%	7.8%	3.1%	5.25	4.79	-1.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	192	126	27	0%	1.1	22.7%	14.9%	7.8%	3.1%	5.25	4.79	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		77	32	165	786	148	199	25	42%	2.1	18.8%	25.3%	-6.5%	3.2%	7.54	6.46	-4.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		94	39	200	955	179	242	30	42%	2.1	18.8%	25.3%	-6.5%	3.2%	7.54	6.46	-1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dylan Lesko (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.51	19.7%	23.5%	3.1%	—	5.45	21.6%	4.8%	240	-1.06	—	—	—
Jordan Brink R 2016 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	18.3%	19.2%	3.6%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	132	88
Garrett Apker R 2023 · 6.24 FIP	23	SW	6.24	15.0%	18.8%	3.7%	.343	4.93	18.9%	5.2%	53	-1.31	4.01	101	82
Jaydenn Estanista R 2023 · 6.67 FIP	21	SU	6.67	16.7%	25.7%	3.1%	.348	4.95	21.5%	5.6%	143	-1.72	4.59	230	79
Aneudis Mejia R 2023 · 7.12 FIP	19	SW	7.12	18.7%	29.9%	3.3%	.404	5.03	16.9%	1.3%	102	-2.09	4.36	122	78
Eury Rosado R 2023 · 6.56 FIP	22	SW	6.56	17.8%	18.2%	4.8%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	109	78
Darlin Pinales R 2023 · 6.68 FIP	20	SW	6.68	17.0%	27.6%	2.8%	.350	4.44	21.7%	1.1%	117	-2.24	3.61	214	78
Sandy Gaston R 2023 · 6.60 FIP	21	SW	6.60	17.7%	24.0%	3.6%	.295	4.96	22.7%	4.4%	131	-1.64	4.17	310	78
Tommy McCollum R 2021 · 6.21 FIP	22	SU	6.21	17.1%	27.2%	2.0%	.235	3.80	26.4%	10.9%	112	-2.41	2.90	219	77
Cole Aker R 2019 · 5.60 FIP	22	SW	5.60	19.5%	20.6%	2.8%	.239	6.17	12.0%	-9.9%	28	+0.57	3.60	147	77
Jackson Rose R 2018 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	17.3%	17.2%	2.8%	.267	4.77	23.5%	16.5%	56	-0.55	3.33	147	77
Justin Kelly R 2021 · 5.93 FIP	22	SU	5.93	15.5%	14.3%	4.2%	.259	4.93	15.4%	6.8%	149	-1.00	3.17	196	77
Drake Fellows R 2023 · 5.66 FIP	25	SW	5.66	17.1%	20.4%	2.6%	.367	4.91	14.2%	5.1%	266	-0.75	4.32	277	77
Cory Thompson R 2017 · 5.42 FIP	22	SU	5.42	15.2%	15.7%	2.9%	.289	4.34	16.3%	10.6%	131	-1.08	3.59	218	77
Ronny Lopez R 2023 · 5.33 FIP	20	SW	5.33	15.1%	20.6%	1.6%	.232	5.01	13.7%	-5.7%	85	-0.32	4.23	121	76
Marcus Crescentini R 2015 · 5.80 FIP	22	SU	5.80	21.8%	21.9%	3.2%	.365	3.95	23.3%	11.6%	123	-1.85	2.74	150	76
Danny Dopico R 2016 · 5.58 FIP	22	SU	5.58	18.3%	22.6%	2.1%	.309	3.19	23.9%	11.2%	189	-2.39	3.00	318	76
Jose Pena Jr. R 2023 · 6.67 FIP	20	SU	6.67	13.6%	25.8%	2.6%	.292	3.81	22.3%	9.1%	116	-2.86	3.48	176	76
Joey Matulovich R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	22	SW	5.52	19.8%	14.6%	4.1%	.378	5.04	20.5%	8.9%	133	-0.48	3.22	201	76
Bryce McGowan R 2022 · 5.90 FIP	22	SU	5.90	17.0%	22.9%	2.4%	.368	4.36	20.6%	6.6%	145	-1.54	3.71	178	76
Zach Barnes R 2022 · 5.35 FIP	23	SU	5.35	18.2%	22.0%	1.8%	.378	5.03	14.9%	1.5%	119	-0.32	4.90	145	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.2	72	22.5%	15.5%	1.21	5.34
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77