Darlin Pinales — OGILVIE

Darlin Pinales P Lansing Lugnuts

Age 23 RHP 6'4" / 240 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 23 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 143135vR 127

ERA5.81

FIP5.81

K%22.5%

BB%21.5%

K-BB%1.0%

ROS IP23

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	12	8	29	136	24	20	1	67%	2.4	12.0%	18.4%	-6.4%	0.8%	5.28	4.88	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Bautista	12	8	29	136	24	20	1	67%	2.4	17.6%	14.7%	2.9%	0.7%	5.28	3.96	—
2022	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	5	41	166	42	18	0	38%	3.2	18.0%	16.0%	2.0%	0.0%	2.63	3.61	—
2022	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	5	41	166	42	18	0	38%	3.2	25.3%	10.8%	14.5%	0.0%	2.63	2.37	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	4	38	196	47	45	4	20%	1.9	17.0%	27.6%	-10.6%	2.8%	9.16	6.68	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	4	38	196	47	45	4	20%	1.9	17.0%	27.6%	-10.6%	2.8%	9.16	6.68	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	4	38	196	47	45	4	20%	1.9	24.0%	23.0%	1.0%	2.0%	9.16	5.53	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	39	186	60	42	1	0%	1.2	22.9%	27.3%	-4.4%	0.6%	5.35	4.97	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	39	186	60	42	1	0%	1.2	22.9%	27.3%	-4.4%	0.6%	5.35	4.97	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	0	39	186	60	42	1	0%	1.2	32.3%	22.6%	9.7%	0.5%	5.35	3.59	—
2025	22	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	35	0	40	183	56	32	2	0%	1.1	22.6%	20.6%	2.0%	1.1%	5.90	4.41	—
2025	22	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	35	0	40	183	56	32	2	0%	1.1	22.6%	20.6%	2.0%	1.1%	5.90	4.41	—
2025	22	A RAW	Visalia Rawhide	35	0	40	183	56	32	2	0%	1.1	30.6%	17.5%	13.1%	1.1%	5.90	3.35	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	29	0	39	190	48	23	2	0%	1.3	19.5%	13.9%	5.5%	1.3%	6.00	3.94	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	29	0	39	190	48	23	2	0%	1.3	19.5%	13.9%	5.5%	1.3%	6.00	3.94	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	OAK	29	0	39	190	48	23	2	0%	1.3	25.3%	12.1%	13.2%	1.1%	6.00	3.08	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	OAK	37	0	39	166	38	30	5	0%	1.1	23.1%	17.9%	5.2%	2.7%	5.44	5.30	-0.3
2027	24	MLB CTX	OAK	16	0	17	72	17	13	2	0%	1.1	23.1%	17.9%	5.2%	2.7%	5.44	5.30	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		16	0	17	71	16	13	2	0%	1.1	23.1%	17.9%	5.2%	2.7%	5.44	4.92	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	190	154	24	0%	1.1	23.1%	17.9%	5.2%	2.7%	5.44	4.92	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		141	17	226	1057	201	221	12	12%	1.6	19.0%	20.9%	-1.9%	1.2%	5.70	4.78	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		125	15	200	937	178	196	11	12%	1.6	19.0%	20.9%	-1.9%	1.2%	5.70	4.78	-1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Darlin Pinales (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.81	22.5%	21.5%	2.7%	—	5.30	23.1%	5.2%	39	-0.51	—	—	—
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	90
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.17	18.2%	4.9%	93	-0.19	3.20	213	87
Andrew Schultz R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	22	SU	5.25	20.9%	17.8%	3.0%	.345	4.59	23.0%	4.7%	45	-0.66	3.10	167	86
Andrew Baker R 2023 · 5.99 FIP	23	SU	5.99	24.7%	25.1%	3.3%	.315	3.65	25.3%	12.2%	161	-2.34	3.44	256	85
Roberto Espinosa R 2015 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.9%	18.6%	1.9%	.273	4.43	14.8%	2.2%	77	-0.49	4.32	117	85
Will McAffer R 2019 · 4.68 FIP	22	SU	4.68	20.4%	18.1%	1.8%	.270	5.96	18.5%	-4.0%	77	+1.28	4.68	133	84
Matt Brill R 2018 · 4.90 FIP	23	SU	4.90	20.8%	16.3%	2.7%	.248	3.89	19.4%	4.9%	60	-1.01	3.73	161	84
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	84
Tommy DeJuneas R 2019 · 5.15 FIP	23	SU	5.15	20.8%	18.8%	2.6%	.324	5.65	13.7%	-3.9%	51	+0.50	3.93	178	84
Jackson Rose R 2018 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	17.3%	17.2%	2.8%	.267	4.77	23.5%	16.5%	56	-0.55	3.33	147	83
Adonis Villavicencio R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	21	SU	4.65	21.5%	21.9%	1.1%	.316	3.93	18.0%	3.9%	90	-0.72	3.21	115	83
Willian Suarez R 2021 · 5.23 FIP	23	SU	5.23	20.4%	17.3%	3.0%	.329	5.13	25.4%	9.5%	128	-0.10	3.99	219	83
Luis Ramirez R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	23	SU	4.68	23.1%	15.9%	2.8%	.278	3.71	24.0%	11.4%	53	-0.97	3.71	104	82
Sal Biasi R 2019 · 5.22 FIP	23	SU	5.22	20.1%	15.8%	3.3%	.295	7.66	15.3%	-0.2%	23	+2.44	4.68	188	82
Juan Mendez R 2022 · 4.99 FIP	23	SU	4.99	21.0%	17.9%	2.5%	.279	5.12	22.5%	7.9%	82	+0.13	3.69	156	82
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.80	21.5%	10.0%	115	-0.58	4.73	183	82
Luis Mora R 2019 · 5.27 FIP	24	SU	5.27	23.9%	22.7%	2.4%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.95	119	82
Jacob Wallace R 2022 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	24.6%	21.6%	3.4%	.237	4.27	22.9%	10.2%	153	-1.32	3.50	279	82
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	82
Stefan Raeth R 2023 · 4.62 FIP	22	SU	4.62	18.0%	15.4%	2.0%	.309	4.73	17.5%	8.3%	124	+0.11	4.51	173	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	31	22.9%	19.3%	1.06	5.58
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22