Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | ROK | ACL Reds | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 71.4% | 0.0% | 71.4% | 0.0% | 0.00 | -2.93 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | ROK | ACL Reds | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 71.4% | 0.0% | 71.4% | 0.0% | 0.00 | -1.90 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A | Daytona Tortugas | 17 | 0 | 29 | 117 | 33 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 1.7 | 20.9% | 14.1% | 6.8% | 3.0% | 3.41 | 4.76 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A | Daytona Tortugas | 17 | 0 | 29 | 117 | 33 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 1.7 | 28.2% | 12.0% | 16.2% | 2.6% | 3.41 | 3.62 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 26 | 1 | 67 | 287 | 57 | 33 | 4 | 4% | 2.6 | 15.3% | 13.2% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 3.90 | 4.09 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 26 | 1 | 67 | 287 | 57 | 33 | 4 | 4% | 2.6 | 19.9% | 11.5% | 8.4% | 1.4% | 3.90 | 3.65 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 0 | 63 | 265 | 72 | 25 | 7 | 0% | 1.8 | 21.1% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 2.9% | 3.71 | 4.24 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 0 | 63 | 265 | 72 | 25 | 7 | 0% | 1.8 | 27.2% | 9.4% | 17.7% | 2.6% | 3.71 | 3.45 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 14 | 1 | 24 | 109 | 19 | 7 | 6 | 7% | 1.7 | 14.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.66 | 6.43 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CIN | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 58 | 32 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.6% | 10.7% | 8.9% | 2.9% | 4.75 | 4.75 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CIN | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.6% | 10.7% | 8.9% | 2.9% | 4.75 | 4.75 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 94 | 405 | 77 | 39 | 14 | — | — | 19.0% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 3.6% | 5.24 | 5.18 | +0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 19.6% | 10.7% | 8.9% | 2.9% | 4.75 | 4.37 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 58 | 31 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.0% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 2.9% | 4.73 | 4.75 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 64 | 0 | 67 | 282 | 57 | 30 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.1% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 3.0% | 4.76 | 4.80 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 54 | 29 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.1% | 10.8% | 9.3% | 3.2% | 4.84 | 4.90 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 22 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.0% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 2.9% | 4.73 | 4.75 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 34 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.1% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 3.0% | 4.76 | 4.80 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 38 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.1% | 10.8% | 9.3% | 3.2% | 4.84 | 4.90 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 107 | 0 | 112 | 474 | 95 | 51 | 15 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.1% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 4.79 | 4.45 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 169 | 91 | 27 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.1% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 4.79 | 4.45 | +2.2 | ||
| Career | — | 94 | 2 | 185 | 785 | 145 | 90 | 21 | 2% | 2.0 | 18.4% | 11.5% | 6.9% | 2.7% | 4.08 | 4.50 | +1.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 101 | 2 | 200 | 847 | 156 | 98 | 23 | 2% | 2.0 | 18.4% | 11.5% | 6.9% | 2.7% | 4.08 | 4.50 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Easton Sikorski (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.75 | 19.6% | 10.7% | 2.9% | — | 4.81 | 20.1% | 9.4% | 200 | +0.06 | — | — | — |
| David Goforth R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.11 | 17.4% | 9.8% | 2.3% | .287 | 4.58 | 14.1% | 3.6% | 184 | +0.47 | 3.92 | 256 | 87 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.46 | 19.9% | 9.8% | 3.3% | .278 | 5.02 | 22.7% | 10.3% | 89 | +0.56 | 2.69 | 315 | 87 |
| Colton Murray R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.04 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .295 | 4.19 | 21.8% | 13.1% | 41 | +0.15 | 3.43 | 187 | 86 |
| Roman Mendez R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.13 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 2.5% | .246 | 4.87 | 20.9% | 10.7% | 116 | +0.74 | 4.12 | 230 | 86 |
| Troy Neiman R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.84 | 18.1% | 8.3% | 2.2% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 199 | 86 |
| Spencer Stockton R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.19 | 20.2% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .276 | 5.42 | 19.0% | 5.8% | 63 | +1.23 | 1.93 | 233 | 86 |
| Héctor Neris R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.09 | 20.9% | 10.0% | 2.7% | .298 | 3.09 | 31.5% | 23.7% | 221 | -1.00 | 1.97 | 682 | 86 |
| Brett McKinney R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.06 | 18.5% | 9.9% | 4.1% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 183 | 86 |
| Kyle Martin R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.28 | 18.3% | 10.0% | 2.6% | .304 | 3.13 | 23.0% | 10.0% | 51 | -1.15 | 3.02 | 214 | 85 |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.75 | 21.7% | 11.4% | 1.9% | .292 | 4.81 | 19.0% | 7.9% | 223 | +1.06 | 3.75 | 299 | 85 |
| Stephen Kohlscheen R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.95 | 15.6% | 8.1% | 2.1% | .311 | 4.02 | 22.8% | 15.0% | 90 | +0.07 | 2.39 | 167 | 85 |
| R.J. Alaniz R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.78 | 20.7% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .318 | 3.31 | 23.8% | 15.0% | 96 | -0.47 | 2.46 | 362 | 85 |
| Carlos Gonzalez R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.88 | 18.2% | 8.7% | 2.2% | .266 | 4.15 | 14.3% | 2.3% | 36 | +0.27 | 3.73 | 154 | 85 |
| Evan Gates R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.99 | 19.4% | 10.8% | 2.1% | .315 | 4.03 | 21.2% | 10.6% | 105 | +0.04 | 3.74 | 277 | 85 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.91 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.01 | 3.21 | 161 | 85 |
| Logan Bawcom R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.76 | 15.8% | 9.1% | 1.5% | .320 | 4.36 | 15.9% | 6.2% | 259 | +0.60 | 3.76 | 399 | 84 |
| Cole Johnson R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.56 | 17.4% | 8.4% | 1.6% | .311 | 3.48 | 14.0% | 9.2% | 49 | -0.08 | 3.48 | 101 | 84 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.34 | 23.4% | 11.6% | 3.2% | .273 | 4.52 | 18.7% | 7.1% | 88 | +0.18 | 3.57 | 187 | 84 |
| Jonathan Hughes R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.28 | 17.1% | 9.2% | 2.7% | .283 | 3.58 | 17.1% | 4.9% | 50 | -0.70 | 3.50 | 219 | 84 |
| Justin De Fratus R 2027 · 3.88 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.88 | 18.8% | 8.3% | 2.4% | .325 | 4.53 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 279 | +0.65 | 3.88 | 500 | 84 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 67 | 19.9% | 10.7% | 1.16 | 4.77 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |