Jacob Wallace — OGILVIE

Jacob Wallace P Knoxville Smokies

Age 27 RHP 6'1" / 190 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION26 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.52

FIP4.52

K%22.9%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%12.7%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 31 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD5555

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	39	0	49	220	76	25	5	0%	1.2	26.6%	13.1%	13.5%	3.2%	5.92	4.26	—
2021	22	A+ RAW	Greenville Drive	39	0	49	220	76	25	5	0%	1.2	34.5%	11.4%	23.2%	2.3%	5.92	2.85	—
2022	23	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	47	0	57	250	76	49	7	0%	1.2	24.6%	21.6%	3.1%	3.3%	3.81	5.59	—
2022	23	AA RAW	Portland Sea Dogs	47	0	57	250	76	49	7	0%	1.2	30.4%	19.6%	10.8%	2.8%	3.81	4.62	—
2023	24	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	49	0	49	238	57	37	1	0%	1.0	19.4%	17.1%	2.3%	0.6%	4.20	3.95	—
2023	24	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	49	0	49	238	57	37	1	0%	1.0	19.4%	17.1%	2.3%	0.6%	4.20	3.95	—
2023	24	AA RAW	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	49	0	49	238	57	37	1	0%	1.0	23.9%	15.5%	8.4%	0.4%	4.20	3.30	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	64	265	86	28	8	0%	1.4	26.5%	12.1%	14.3%	4.1%	4.10	4.66	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	64	265	86	28	8	0%	1.4	26.5%	12.1%	14.3%	4.1%	4.10	4.66	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	64	265	86	28	8	0%	1.4	32.5%	10.6%	21.9%	3.0%	4.10	3.35	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	26	1	42	172	45	16	5	4%	1.6	21.7%	8.4%	13.3%	3.2%	4.46	4.08	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	26	1	42	172	45	16	5	4%	1.6	21.7%	8.4%	13.3%	3.2%	4.46	4.08	—
2025	26	AAA RAW	Omaha Storm Chasers	26	1	42	172	45	16	5	4%	1.6	26.2%	9.3%	16.9%	2.9%	4.46	3.64	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	21	0	26	112	29	6	2	0%	1.3	21.1%	6.0%	15.2%	2.6%	5.13	3.50	—
YTD	27	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	21	0	26	112	29	6	2	0%	1.3	21.1%	6.0%	15.2%	2.6%	5.13	3.50	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	ROK RAW	CHC	2	0	2	9	3	1	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	11.1%	22.2%	0.0%	0.00	1.69	—
2026	27	A+ RAW	CHC	2	0	3	11	2	0	0	0%	1.5	18.2%	0.0%	18.2%	0.0%	3.00	1.56	—
2026	27	AA RAW	CHC	17	0	21	92	24	5	2	0%	1.3	26.1%	5.4%	20.7%	2.2%	5.91	2.78	—
ROS	27	MLB MLE	CHC	5	0	5	21	5	2	1	0%	1.0	22.9%	10.2%	12.7%	3.1%	4.52	4.52	+0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	CHC	—	—	31	133	34	8	3	—	—	25.4%	6.1%	19.3%	2.0%	5.03	3.67	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	CHC	55	0	58	244	56	25	8	0%	1.0	22.8%	10.2%	12.6%	3.2%	4.55	4.59	-0.0
2028	29	MLB MLE	CHC	52	0	55	233	53	24	8	0%	1.1	22.6%	10.4%	12.2%	3.3%	4.63	4.70	-0.1
2027	28	MLB CTX	CHC	21	0	22	93	21	10	3	0%	1.0	22.8%	10.2%	12.6%	3.2%	4.55	4.59	-0.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	CHC	30	0	31	131	30	14	4	0%	1.0	22.6%	10.4%	12.2%	3.3%	4.63	4.70	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		50	0	52	221	50	23	7	0%	1.0	22.7%	10.3%	12.4%	3.3%	4.60	4.27	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	191	88	27	0%	1.1	22.7%	10.3%	12.4%	3.3%	4.60	4.27	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		227	1	287	1257	297	177	36	0%	1.3	23.7%	14.0%	9.6%	2.9%	4.52	4.46	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		158	1	200	876	207	123	25	0%	1.3	23.7%	14.0%	9.6%	2.9%	4.52	4.46	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jacob Wallace (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.52	22.9%	10.2%	3.1%	—	4.64	22.7%	12.4%	113	+0.12	—	—	—
Austin Ross R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	27	SU	3.81	22.9%	8.0%	3.0%	.295	3.67	12.4%	5.2%	127	-0.14	3.16	269	89
Taylor Williams R 2018 · 3.52 FIP	27	SU	3.52	24.2%	8.9%	2.4%	.309	4.35	22.5%	12.7%	108	+0.83	2.51	309	87
Jaye Chapman R 2015 · 3.32 FIP	28	SU	3.32	21.6%	8.5%	1.8%	.276	4.08	20.3%	11.3%	85	+0.76	3.25	150	87
Cody Satterwhite R 2015 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	20.2%	9.8%	1.9%	.333	4.04	17.7%	10.2%	75	+0.33	3.69	147	86
Cole Sulser R 2017 · 3.52 FIP	27	SU	3.52	22.6%	10.2%	1.9%	.321	2.85	28.2%	18.4%	140	-0.67	2.39	547	86
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.55	17.5%	6.5%	168	+0.67	3.88	202	85
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	85
Ryan Garton R 2017 · 3.67 FIP	27	SU	3.67	25.2%	11.3%	2.3%	.252	4.15	23.5%	10.8%	108	+0.48	3.14	307	85
Nolan Clenney R 2023 · 4.79 FIP	27	SU	4.79	22.6%	10.1%	4.2%	.341	4.58	17.2%	7.5%	71	-0.21	3.73	223	85
Michael Flynn R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	26	SU	4.31	26.5%	11.2%	3.7%	.299	4.42	20.8%	10.2%	92	+0.11	3.89	168	85
Brad Boxberger R 2015 · 3.93 FIP	27	SU	3.93	27.3%	10.0%	3.4%	.280	4.09	28.5%	17.2%	107	+0.16	3.01	363	84
José A. Váldez R 2017 · 4.39 FIP	27	SU	4.39	21.6%	8.3%	3.8%	.325	4.15	18.8%	6.4%	153	-0.24	4.02	328	84
Steve Geltz R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	27	SU	3.95	22.7%	8.6%	3.1%	.209	4.90	22.2%	12.0%	89	+0.95	3.57	157	84
Grant Sides R 2016 · 3.83 FIP	27	SU	3.83	22.4%	11.9%	2.0%	.247	3.31	21.7%	11.9%	47	-0.52	3.31	159	84
Ryan Kelly R 2015 · 3.52 FIP	27	SU	3.52	20.3%	7.5%	2.1%	.241	3.21	20.8%	14.2%	43	-0.31	2.49	131	84
Hunter Parsons R 2023 · 4.88 FIP	26	SU	4.88	22.0%	10.0%	4.3%	.274	6.70	25.5%	9.0%	29	+1.82	4.73	183	84
Justin De Fratus R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	27	SU	3.84	18.8%	8.3%	2.3%	.325	4.61	12.4%	6.9%	279	+0.77	3.84	500	83
Al Alburquerque R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	29	SU	3.54	21.4%	11.1%	1.5%	.330	3.23	21.3%	12.5%	114	-0.31	2.84	228	83
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2018 · 5.07 FIP	27	SU	5.07	22.2%	11.4%	4.4%	.256	4.43	23.3%	9.7%	39	-0.64	2.64	315	82
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	57	22.8%	10.3%	1.23	4.57
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78