Brad Boxberger — OGILVIE

Brad Boxberger P Chicago Cubs

Age 38 RHP 5'10" / 211 lbs MLB peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.28

FIP4.41

K%22.8%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%13.4%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 4 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4040

CMD5555

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.1

Whiff%

p3723.5%

p3620.2%

xwOBA vs

p290.336

SL+2.0

CH-1.3

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	27	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	69	0	63	271	74	27	9	0%	0.9	27.3%	10.0%	17.3%	3.4%	3.71	3.93	+0.5
2015	27	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	69	0	63	271	74	27	9	0%	0.9	27.3%	10.0%	17.3%	3.3%	3.71	3.89	+0.5
2016	28	MIX MLE	4 levels	38	5	34	157	35	22	5	13%	0.9	19.3%	15.8%	3.5%	2.7%	4.50	4.96	-0.2
2016	28	MIX RAW	4 levels	38	5	34	157	35	22	5	13%	0.9	22.3%	14.0%	8.3%	3.2%	4.50	4.89	-0.1
2017	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	38	4	37	159	53	15	5	11%	1.0	33.1%	6.6%	26.4%	3.4%	4.14	3.01	+0.7
2017	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	38	4	37	159	53	15	5	11%	1.0	33.3%	9.4%	23.9%	3.1%	4.14	3.21	+0.6
2018	30	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	60	0	53	235	71	28	9	0%	0.9	30.2%	11.9%	18.3%	4.1%	4.39	4.28	+0.2
2018	30	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	60	0	53	235	71	28	9	0%	0.9	30.2%	11.9%	18.3%	3.8%	4.39	4.21	+0.2
2019	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	42	0	41	188	46	24	5	0%	1.0	22.1%	13.9%	8.2%	2.7%	5.31	4.46	+0.0
2019	31	MIX RAW	3 levels	42	0	41	188	46	24	5	0%	1.0	24.5%	12.8%	11.7%	2.7%	5.31	4.21	+0.2
2020	32	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	23	0	18	79	18	8	3	0%	0.8	22.8%	10.1%	12.7%	4.0%	3.00	4.65	-0.0
2020	32	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	23	0	18	79	18	8	3	0%	0.8	22.8%	10.1%	12.7%	3.8%	3.00	4.60	-0.0
2021	33	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	71	0	65	266	83	24	8	0%	0.9	31.2%	9.0%	22.2%	2.9%	3.34	3.18	+1.1
2021	33	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	71	0	65	266	83	24	8	0%	0.9	31.2%	9.0%	22.2%	3.0%	3.34	3.25	+1.0
2022	34	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	70	0	64	268	68	26	6	0%	0.9	25.4%	9.7%	15.7%	2.1%	2.95	3.36	+0.9
2022	34	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	70	0	64	268	68	26	6	0%	0.9	25.4%	9.7%	15.7%	2.2%	2.95	3.41	+0.9
2023	35	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	2	26	117	22	14	3	7%	0.9	20.2%	11.9%	8.3%	3.7%	5.47	4.94	-0.1
2023	35	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	2	26	117	22	14	3	7%	0.9	20.2%	11.9%	8.3%	3.7%	5.47	4.94	-0.1
2023	35	MIX RAW	3 levels	30	2	26	117	22	14	3	7%	0.9	18.8%	12.0%	6.8%	2.6%	5.47	4.51	+0.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			401	0	363	1560	420	166	48	0%	0.9	26.9%	10.6%	16.3%	3.1%	3.81	3.88	+2.9
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	38	MLB	CHC	4	0	4	17	4	2	1	0%	1.0	22.8%	9.4%	13.4%	3.0%	4.28	4.41	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	39	MLB MLE	CHC	38	0	40	169	37	17	6	0%	1.1	21.6%	10.1%	11.5%	3.5%	4.62	4.84	-0.1
2027	39	MLB CTX	CHC	38	0	40	169	37	17	6	0%	1.1	21.6%	10.1%	11.5%	3.5%	4.62	4.84	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		439	0	403	1729	457	183	54	0%	0.9	26.4%	10.6%	15.8%	3.1%	3.89	3.92	+3.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		218	0	200	857	227	91	27	0%	0.9	26.4%	10.6%	15.8%	3.1%	3.89	3.92	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		441	11	401	1740	462	188	54	2%	0.9	26.6%	10.8%	15.7%	3.1%	3.97	3.94	+2.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		220	5	200	868	230	94	27	2%	0.9	26.6%	10.8%	15.7%	3.1%	3.97	3.94	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brad Boxberger (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.41	22.8%	9.4%	3.0%	—	4.84	21.6%	11.5%	40	+0.43	—	—	—
Fernando Rodney R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	38	SU	4.37	20.9%	9.4%	3.4%	.272	3.37	26.2%	15.2%	185	-1.00	2.69	295	88
Joaquín Benoit R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	38	SU	3.58	24.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.179	4.11	23.5%	12.9%	98	+0.53	3.58	164	81
Peter Moylan R 2017 · 3.63 FIP	38	SU	3.63	18.9%	9.1%	1.8%	.211	4.77	17.8%	6.2%	28	+1.14	3.11	174	78
Juan Sandoval R 2019 · 5.41 FIP	38	SU	5.41	15.9%	7.2%	5.0%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.24	225	73
Ryan Madson R 2018 · 3.49 FIP	37	SU	3.49	23.4%	6.1%	2.9%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	1.42	240	73
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	71
Ervin Santana R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	38	SU	4.40	18.8%	7.6%	3.5%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	720	71
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	69
Matt Belisle R 2018 · 4.60 FIP	38	SU	4.60	15.4%	6.2%	3.7%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	2.51	174	65
Ronald Belisario R 2019 · 4.16 FIP	36	SU	4.16	12.7%	3.9%	3.0%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	2.10	126	65
Joe Blanton R 2017 · 4.94 FIP	36	SU	4.94	20.0%	5.6%	5.1%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	240	64
Chien-Ming Wang R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	36	SU	4.53	13.0%	7.8%	2.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.23	183	62
Hector Navarro R 2017 · 3.53 FIP	37	SU	3.53	11.5%	5.6%	1.3%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	2.30	126	61
Santiago Casilla R 2018 · 4.14 FIP	38	SU	4.14	16.8%	15.2%	1.0%	.248	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	219	59
Erubiel Gonzalez R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	38	SU	3.51	13.3%	2.5%	2.2%	.388	—	—	—	—	—	2.99	119	58
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2020 · 5.02 FIP	36	SU	5.02	17.5%	12.7%	3.3%	.381	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	132	55
Daniel Bard R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	38	SU	4.95	20.3%	19.8%	1.9%	.224	—	—	—	—	—	2.56	200	53
Tony Pena Jr. R 2017 · 3.43 FIP	36	SU	3.43	10.9%	4.3%	1.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	128	53
Brad Ziegler R 2018 · 4.03 FIP	38	SU	4.03	16.4%	6.2%	2.8%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	2.63	257	53
Wilfredo Ledezma L 2017 · 3.35 FIP	36	SU	3.35	26.7%	8.3%	2.7%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	2.58	109	38

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	43	22.3%	9.8%	1.25	4.44
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21