Adonis Villavicencio

P Hub City Spartanburgers

Age 26 RHP 6'2" / 200 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	23	0	42	3.00	2.20	28.7%	9.6%	—	K 20.5% · BB 11.4% · FIP 3.21
2025	24	A+TEX	37	0	48	6.33	3.99	20.5%	14.2%	—	K 15.8% · BB 16.4% · FIP 4.55
2026	25	A+TEX	2	0	1	13.50	5.35	30.0%	30.0%	—	K 30.0% · BB 30.0% · FIP 4.37
2027PROJ	26	MLBTEX	—	—	0	5.88	5.88	15.7%	17.2%	—
2028PROJ37% MLB	27	MLBTEX	14	0	15	5.75	5.77	16.5%	16.5%	-0.2
2029PROJ59% MLB	28	MLBTEX	20	0	21	5.70	5.74	16.9%	16.1%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control25Command30

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsTrey Haley (age 26) · Mike Hepple (age 26) · Julian Arballo (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 145137vR 129

ERA5.88

FIP5.88

K%15.7%

BB%17.2%

K-BB%-1.5%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL2525

CMD3030

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	21	ROK MLE	DSL TEX Blue	18	0	25	114	36	20	1	0%	1.4	21.5%	21.9%	-0.5%	1.1%	5.04	4.65	—
2022	21	ROK RAW	DSL TEX Blue	18	0	25	114	36	20	1	0%	1.4	31.6%	17.5%	14.0%	0.9%	5.04	3.14	—
2023	22	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Red	8	0	9	47	15	7	1	0%	1.1	31.9%	14.9%	17.0%	2.1%	7.27	3.46	—
2023	22	ROK RAW	DSL Rangers Red	8	0	9	47	15	7	1	0%	1.1	31.9%	14.9%	17.0%	2.1%	7.27	3.56	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	42	178	51	17	1	0%	1.8	20.5%	11.4%	9.1%	0.7%	3.00	3.21	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	42	178	51	17	1	0%	1.8	20.5%	11.4%	9.1%	0.7%	3.00	3.21	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	0	42	178	51	17	1	0%	1.8	28.7%	9.6%	19.1%	0.6%	3.00	2.20	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Hub City Spartanburgers	37	0	48	239	49	34	3	0%	1.3	15.8%	16.4%	-0.6%	1.3%	6.33	4.55	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Hub City Spartanburgers	37	0	48	239	49	34	3	0%	1.3	15.8%	16.4%	-0.6%	1.3%	6.33	4.55	—
2025	24	A+ RAW	Hub City Spartanburgers	37	0	48	239	49	34	3	0%	1.3	20.5%	14.2%	6.3%	1.3%	6.33	3.99	—
2026	25	A+ MLE	Hub City Spartanburgers	2	0	1	10	3	3	0	0%	0.7	30.0%	30.0%	0.0%	0.0%	13.50	4.37	—
2026	25	A+ MLE	Hub City Spartanburgers	2	0	1	10	3	3	0	0%	0.7	30.0%	30.0%	0.0%	0.0%	13.50	4.37	—
2026	25	A+ RAW	Hub City Spartanburgers	2	0	1	10	3	3	0	0%	0.7	30.0%	30.0%	0.0%	0.0%	13.50	5.35	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	TEX	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	15.7%	17.2%	-1.5%	2.8%	5.88	5.88	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	TEX	40	0	42	177	29	29	5	0%	1.1	16.5%	16.5%	-0.0%	2.9%	5.75	5.77	-0.6
2029	28	MLB MLE	TEX	33	0	35	148	25	24	4	0%	1.1	16.9%	16.1%	0.7%	3.0%	5.70	5.74	-0.5
2028	27	MLB CTX	TEX	14	0	15	63	10	10	2	0%	1.1	16.5%	16.5%	-0.0%	2.9%	5.75	5.77	-0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	TEX	20	0	21	89	15	14	3	0%	1.1	16.9%	16.1%	0.7%	3.0%	5.70	5.74	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		34	0	36	152	25	25	4	0%	1.1	16.7%	16.3%	0.4%	2.9%	5.72	5.37	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	139	139	22	0%	1.1	16.7%	16.3%	0.4%	2.9%	5.72	5.37	-1.9
Career	—	MLE		88	0	125	588	117	94	7	0%	1.4	19.8%	16.0%	3.8%	1.1%	5.10	4.07	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		140	0	200	938	186	151	11	0%	1.4	19.8%	16.0%	3.8%	1.1%	5.10	4.07	-2.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 A+Hub City Spartanburgers · 48 IPFIP 3.86 → 4.55 (+0.69)K% 20.5% → 15.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.50%	—	×0.770	15.79%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.23%	—	×1.150	16.36%
HR / BF /BF	1.26%	÷1.215	×1.250	1.29%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 143).

Result: FIP 3.86 → 4.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ADown East Wood Ducks · 24 IPFIP 2.90 → 3.96 (+1.05)K% 27.8% → 20.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.78%	—	×0.740	20.56%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.96%	—	×1.180	15.30%
HR / BF /BF	0.93%	÷1.008	×1.300	1.19%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 102).

Result: FIP 2.90 → 3.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL Rangers · 18 IPFIP 1.11 → 2.06 (+0.95)K% 30.0% → 20.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.00%	—	×0.680	20.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.29%	—	×1.250	5.36%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.040	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 108).

Result: FIP 1.11 → 2.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKDSL Rangers Red · 9 IPFIP 3.46 → 5.17 (+1.71)K% 31.9% → 21.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.91%	—	×0.680	21.70%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.89%	—	×1.250	18.62%
HR / BF /BF	2.13%	÷1.056	×1.400	2.82%

Result: FIP 3.46 → 5.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKDSL TEX Blue · 25 IPFIP 3.14 → 4.65 (+1.51)K% 31.6% → 21.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.58%	—	×0.680	21.47%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.54%	—	×1.250	21.93%
HR / BF /BF	0.88%	÷1.148	×1.400	1.07%

Result: FIP 3.14 → 4.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Adonis Villavicencio (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.88	15.7%	17.2%	2.8%	—	5.76	16.7%	0.3%	77	-0.12	—	—	—
Trey Haley R 2016 · 4.98 FIP	26	SU	4.98	14.0%	16.5%	1.8%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	3.14	111	89
Mike Hepple R 2016 · 5.75 FIP	26	SU	5.75	11.1%	18.5%	2.3%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	116	86
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	85
Luis García R 2013 · 4.92 FIP	26	SU	4.92	16.7%	16.7%	2.0%	.270	3.68	20.3%	9.3%	151	-1.24	2.33	662	84
Jeff Soptic R 2016 · 5.52 FIP	25	SU	5.52	13.6%	15.3%	3.0%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	5.30	124	84
Haden Erbe R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	25	SU	5.28	18.4%	16.5%	3.0%	.320	5.19	17.8%	0.5%	40	-0.09	5.19	116	84
Roman Phansalkar R 2024 · 5.39 FIP	26	SU	5.39	15.8%	13.2%	3.6%	.294	4.33	18.2%	3.7%	31	-1.06	4.33	164	82
Livan Reinoso R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	25	SU	4.90	15.1%	17.7%	1.5%	.229	5.67	16.1%	-2.1%	99	+0.77	4.36	219	82
Jake Gozzo R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	26	SU	5.04	16.2%	17.6%	2.0%	.227	4.32	15.6%	-1.3%	32	-0.72	4.32	162	82
Kevin Gryboski R 2002 · 5.02 FIP	28	SU	5.02	13.9%	13.4%	2.5%	.263	3.83	12.0%	2.9%	126	-1.19	3.67	178	81
Cre Finfrock R 2022 · 6.31 FIP	26	SU	6.31	16.7%	25.2%	2.6%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	4.27	103	81
Rob Huber R 2016 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.7%	14.7%	2.0%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.90	117	81
Justin Courtney R 2022 · 5.11 FIP	26	SU	5.11	16.8%	12.8%	3.3%	.331	8.63	18.4%	7.1%	21	+3.52	4.58	108	80
Yunior Thibo R 2023 · 5.32 FIP	25	SU	5.32	14.3%	15.6%	2.7%	.231	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	110	80
Jake Haberer R 2021 · 6.54 FIP	26	SU	6.54	13.4%	17.5%	4.3%	.287	5.15	19.6%	4.0%	106	-1.39	3.46	183	80
Mitchell Osnowitz R 2017 · 5.30 FIP	26	SU	5.30	16.5%	18.7%	2.2%	.366	5.43	19.2%	7.7%	42	+0.13	4.54	132	80
Wandi Montout R 2022 · 5.59 FIP	25	SU	5.59	13.4%	18.7%	2.3%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	103	79
Christian Ruebeck R 2024 · 6.03 FIP	23	SU	6.03	20.6%	24.4%	2.9%	.265	4.57	21.6%	1.9%	70	-1.46	4.35	104	79
Lukas Schiraldi R 2018 · 5.00 FIP	25	SU	5.00	18.7%	19.3%	1.9%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	319	79
Jacob Morris R 2016 · 4.77 FIP	25	SU	4.77	18.7%	21.1%	1.0%	.236	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	102	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	46	16.2%	16.7%	1.12	5.79
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Lloyd Allen ('69-'75, -5 WAR*)	1.5	59	19.8%*	13.9%*	0.79*	5.99*