Andrew Baker

P Albuquerque Isotopes

Age 27 RHP 6'1" / 190 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	43	0	50	4.65	2.62	32.3%	14.2%	—	K 25.6% · BB 15.8% · FIP 3.44
2025	25	MIX2 levels	43	0	54	4.86	2.88	29.8%	8.9%	—	K 23.4% · BB 10.1% · FIP 3.78
2026	26	MIX2 levels	50	2	60	4.35	3.40	32.6%	14.5%	—	K 27.3% · BB 13.8% · FIP 3.86
2027PROJ	27	MLBCOL	4	0	4	4.46	4.46	25.8%	12.6%	0.0
2028PROJ43% MLB	28	MLBCOL	13	0	14	4.50	4.53	25.4%	12.4%	0.0

Next 2 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 1.4, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsFernando Rodriguez Jr. (age 27) · Jacob Bosiokovic (age 27) · Beck Wheeler (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.46

FIP4.46

K%25.8%

BB%12.6%

K-BB%13.2%

Proj IP40

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 40 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	1	12	60	20	17	1	11%	1.3	22.3%	37.8%	-15.5%	2.5%	9.75	7.36	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	1	12	60	20	17	1	11%	1.3	33.3%	28.3%	5.0%	1.7%	9.75	5.10	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	54	235	72	29	5	0%	1.2	23.7%	13.9%	9.8%	3.6%	3.98	4.83	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	54	235	72	29	5	0%	1.2	30.6%	12.3%	18.3%	2.1%	3.98	3.25	—
2023	23	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	41	0	41	210	64	48	6	0%	1.0	24.7%	25.1%	-0.5%	3.3%	8.12	5.99	—
2023	23	AA RAW	Reading Fightin Phils	41	0	41	210	64	48	6	0%	1.0	30.5%	22.9%	7.6%	2.9%	8.12	5.39	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	50	226	73	32	2	0%	1.2	25.6%	15.8%	9.9%	0.9%	4.65	3.44	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	50	226	73	32	2	0%	1.2	25.6%	15.8%	9.9%	0.9%	4.65	3.44	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	50	226	73	32	2	0%	1.2	32.3%	14.2%	18.1%	0.9%	4.65	2.62	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	54	235	70	21	5	0%	1.2	23.4%	10.1%	13.3%	2.5%	4.86	3.78	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	54	235	70	21	5	0%	1.2	23.4%	10.1%	13.3%	2.5%	4.86	3.78	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	54	235	70	21	5	0%	1.2	29.8%	8.9%	20.9%	2.1%	4.86	2.88	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	2	60	276	90	40	6	4%	1.2	27.3%	13.8%	13.5%	2.4%	4.35	3.86	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	2	60	276	90	40	6	4%	1.2	27.3%	13.8%	13.5%	2.4%	4.35	3.86	—
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	2	60	276	90	40	6	4%	1.2	32.6%	14.5%	18.1%	2.2%	4.35	3.40	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	COL	4	0	4	17	4	2	0	0%	1.0	25.8%	12.6%	13.2%	2.8%	4.46	4.46	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	COL	32	0	33	140	36	17	4	0%	1.0	25.4%	12.4%	13.0%	3.0%	4.50	4.53	+0.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	COL	13	0	14	59	15	7	2	0%	1.1	25.4%	12.4%	13.0%	3.0%	4.50	4.53	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		13	0	14	60	15	7	2	0%	1.1	25.4%	12.4%	13.0%	3.0%	4.50	4.15	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	213	99	28	0%	1.1	25.4%	12.4%	13.0%	3.0%	4.50	4.15	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		232	3	271	1242	309	206	31	1%	1.2	24.9%	16.6%	8.3%	2.5%	5.24	4.48	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		171	2	200	915	228	152	23	1%	1.2	24.9%	16.6%	8.3%	2.5%	5.24	4.48	+0.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 35 IPFIP 4.63 → 4.95 (+0.32)K% 29.3% → 25.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.31%	—	×0.860	25.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.67%	—	×0.900	15.00%
HR / BF /BF	3.45%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.79%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.63 → 4.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAHartford Yard Goats · 25 IPFIP 1.24 → 1.99 (+0.75)K% 38.2% → 31.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.24%	—	×0.810	30.97%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.78%	—	×1.100	11.86%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.24 → 1.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 34 IPFIP 2.78 → 3.74 (+0.96)K% 29.9% → 23.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.86%	—	×0.770	22.99%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.33%	—	×1.150	9.58%
HR / BF /BF	2.08%	÷1.045	×1.250	2.49%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 109).

Result: FIP 2.78 → 3.74, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAReading Fightin Phils · 20 IPFIP 3.05 → 3.85 (+0.79)K% 29.7% → 24.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.67%	—	×0.810	24.03%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.89%	—	×1.100	10.88%
HR / BF /BF	2.20%	÷1.036	×1.200	2.54%

Result: FIP 3.05 → 3.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAReading Fightin Phils · 33 IPFIP 3.41 → 4.07 (+0.65)K% 26.7% → 21.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.71%	—	×0.810	21.63%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.91%	—	×1.100	16.40%
HR / BF /BF	1.24%	÷1.137	×1.200	1.31%

Result: FIP 3.41 → 4.07, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 17 IPFIP 0.76 → 1.89 (+1.13)K% 46.2% → 35.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	46.15%	—	×0.770	35.54%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.31%	—	×1.150	14.15%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.926	×1.250	0.00%

Result: FIP 0.76 → 1.89, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAReading Fightin Phils · 41 IPFIP 4.99 → 5.99 (+1.00)K% 30.5% → 24.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.48%	—	×0.810	24.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	22.86%	—	×1.100	25.14%
HR / BF /BF	2.86%	÷1.050	×1.200	3.26%

Result: FIP 4.99 → 5.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 44 IPFIP 3.42 → 4.83 (+1.41)K% 30.8% → 23.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.81%	—	×0.770	23.72%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.12%	—	×1.150	13.94%
HR / BF /BF	2.53%	÷0.881	×1.250	3.58%

Result: FIP 3.42 → 4.83, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Andrew Baker (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.46	25.8%	12.6%	2.8%	—	4.53	25.4%	13.0%	33	+0.07	—	—	—
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2011 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	24.7%	10.8%	2.7%	.315	3.90	25.2%	16.5%	70	+0.05	3.34	335	92
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2021 · 3.93 FIP	27	SU	3.93	26.4%	14.3%	2.3%	.274	4.80	21.7%	10.2%	69	+0.87	3.84	181	86
Beck Wheeler R 2016 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.9%	14.5%	2.9%	.360	5.40	15.3%	3.1%	58	+0.98	3.46	173	86
Grant Balfour R 2004 · 3.79 FIP	26	SU	3.79	24.4%	11.6%	2.3%	.292	4.01	24.8%	8.3%	25	+0.22	2.04	533	86
Jose Veras R 2008 · 3.67 FIP	27	SU	3.67	24.9%	9.1%	2.8%	.281	4.10	23.8%	11.7%	169	+0.43	3.37	422	85
Chaz Roe R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	26	SU	4.02	25.3%	10.5%	3.1%	.259	2.81	24.6%	16.2%	133	-1.21	1.72	279	85
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	160	84
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	84
Ryan Garton R 2017 · 3.67 FIP	27	SU	3.67	25.2%	11.3%	2.3%	.252	4.15	23.5%	10.8%	108	+0.48	3.14	307	84
Marcos Mateo R 2011 · 3.40 FIP	27	SU	3.40	25.5%	10.2%	2.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	104	84
Taylor Williams R 2018 · 3.52 FIP	27	SU	3.52	24.2%	8.9%	2.4%	.309	4.35	22.5%	12.7%	108	+0.83	2.51	309	83
Scott Dohmann R 2005 · 4.93 FIP	27	SU	4.93	24.5%	12.6%	4.2%	.321	4.69	18.9%	7.5%	96	-0.24	4.28	173	83
Grant Sides R 2016 · 3.83 FIP	27	SU	3.83	22.4%	11.9%	2.0%	.247	3.31	21.7%	11.9%	47	-0.52	3.31	159	82
Spencer Patton R 2015 · 3.47 FIP	27	SU	3.47	26.8%	9.6%	2.6%	.295	2.79	30.3%	18.1%	57	-0.68	2.79	239	82
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	82
Anthony Varvaro R 2012 · 3.66 FIP	27	SU	3.66	27.6%	10.5%	2.8%	.311	3.30	17.7%	11.0%	139	-0.36	3.02	208	82
Cole Sulser R 2017 · 3.52 FIP	27	SU	3.52	22.6%	10.2%	1.9%	.321	2.85	28.2%	18.4%	140	-0.67	2.38	554	81
Tom Wilhelmsen R 2011 · 3.28 FIP	27	SU	3.28	22.1%	9.6%	1.5%	.253	3.18	22.9%	13.4%	218	-0.10	2.72	398	81
Matt Blackham R 2019 · 3.90 FIP	26	SU	3.90	25.4%	12.0%	2.6%	.206	6.85	26.9%	8.7%	25	+2.95	2.08	187	81
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	37	25.6%	12.5%	1.12	4.48
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*