Stefan Raeth
P
Arkansas Travelers
+0.3
WAR
Age 25
RHP
6'0" / 195 lbs
AA
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.53
FIP4.53
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.5%
BB%8.9%
K-BB%12.6%
IP53
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | A | Modesto Nuts | 7 | 0 | 8 | 35 | 7 | 5 | 1 | — | — | — | 5.62 | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Modesto Nuts | 40 | 0 | 49 | 222 | 54 | 29 | 3 | 18.0% | 15.4% | 1.9% | 3.70 | 4.59 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | 42 | 0 | 45 | 201 | 37 | 20 | 4 | 14.2% | 11.4% | 2.1% | 3.77 | 4.49 | +0.2 |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 43 | 2 | 57 | 226 | 62 | 13 | 8 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 3.14 | 4.60 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 3 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 7 | 3 | 1 | — | — | — | 3.60 | — | — |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | SEA | 53 | — | 53 | 223 | 48 | 20 | 7 | 21.5% | 8.9% | 3.2% | 4.53 | 4.53 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 58 | 244 | 55 | 23 | 8 | 22.5% | 9.4% | 3.3% | 4.45 | 4.14 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | SEA | 53 | — | 53 | 223 | 49 | 20 | 7 | 21.9% | 8.9% | 3.2% | 4.49 | 4.49 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | SEA | 52 | — | 52 | 222 | 49 | 20 | 7 | 22.0% | 8.9% | 3.2% | 4.48 | 4.48 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 52 | — | 52 | 218 | 48 | 20 | 7 | 22.1% | 9.0% | 3.2% | 4.49 | 4.50 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 50 | — | 50 | 213 | 47 | 19 | 7 | 22.0% | 9.1% | 3.2% | 4.52 | 4.54 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | SEA | 49 | — | 49 | 207 | 45 | 19 | 7 | 21.8% | 9.2% | 3.3% | 4.57 | 4.60 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | SEA | 47 | — | 47 | 200 | 43 | 19 | 7 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 3.4% | 4.63 | 4.68 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | SEA | 45 | — | 45 | 192 | 41 | 18 | 7 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 3.4% | 4.71 | 4.76 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | SEA | 43 | — | 43 | 183 | 38 | 18 | 6 | 20.9% | 9.6% | 3.5% | 4.80 | 4.86 | +0.0 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | SEA | 41 | — | 41 | 174 | 36 | 17 | 6 | 20.6% | 9.8% | 3.6% | 4.90 | 4.97 | -0.0 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | SEA | 39 | — | 39 | 164 | 33 | 16 | 6 | 20.2% | 10.1% | 3.7% | 5.02 | 5.09 | -0.1 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | SEA | 36 | — | 36 | 153 | 30 | 16 | 6 | 19.8% | 10.3% | 3.9% | 5.15 | 5.23 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 135 | 2 | 164 | 705 | 131 | 80 | 21 | 18.6% | 11.3% | 2.9% | 3.61 | 4.58 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 164 | 2 | 200 | 858 | 159 | 97 | 26 | 18.6% | 11.3% | 2.9% | 3.61 | 4.58 | +1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Stefan Raeth (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.53 | 21.5% | 8.9% | 3.2% | — | 4.49 | 22.0% | 13.1% | 157 | -0.04 | — | — | — |
| Barrett Loseke R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.41 | 21.7% | 10.1% | 3.4% | .311 | 5.44 | 24.0% | 10.9% | 22 | +1.03 | 4.41 | 152 | 92 |
| Austin Ross R 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.42 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.4% | .281 | 5.22 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.80 | 4.42 | 121 | 92 |
| Matt Carasiti R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.68 | 22.2% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .313 | 3.35 | 23.4% | 12.8% | 93 | -0.33 | 2.78 | 312 | 91 |
| Randall Delgado R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.73 | 23.7% | 10.1% | 2.5% | .284 | 3.72 | 20.3% | 12.4% | 167 | -0.01 | 3.05 | 290 | 90 |
| Shohei Tomioka R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.99 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 2.5% | .311 | 4.41 | 17.3% | 3.8% | 141 | +0.42 | 3.65 | 255 | 89 |
| Derek Gordon R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.59 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.59 | 146 | 88 |
| J.R. Graham R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.37 | 18.7% | 7.4% | 3.5% | .317 | 3.65 | 20.4% | 10.1% | 61 | -0.72 | 3.31 | 125 | 88 |
| Easton Sikorski R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.32 | 21.1% | 10.6% | 3.0% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 159 | 88 |
| Nick Merkel R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.99 | 22.8% | 7.1% | 3.5% | .284 | 3.18 | 21.4% | 10.4% | 103 | -0.81 | 3.13 | 179 | 88 |
| Darin Gillies R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.82 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 4.2% | .294 | 4.84 | 23.2% | 12.8% | 106 | +0.02 | 4.22 | 295 | 87 |
| Jackson Hicks R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.89 | 22.6% | 10.5% | 2.5% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 116 | 87 |
| Taylor Floyd R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.32 | 21.7% | 10.8% | 3.0% | .331 | 4.32 | 18.9% | 9.8% | 122 | +0.00 | 3.48 | 290 | 87 |
| Nelson Gonzalez R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.40 | 19.6% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .293 | 5.06 | 17.7% | 7.8% | 115 | +1.66 | 3.40 | 258 | 87 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.85 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.07 | 3.23 | 161 | 87 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2027 · 3.52 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.52 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .244 | 3.73 | 18.9% | 11.1% | 168 | +0.21 | 3.18 | 253 | 87 |
| Mark McLaughlin R 2025 · 3.95 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.95 | 20.6% | 8.3% | 2.8% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | 174 | 87 |
| Jordan Milbrath R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.05 | 19.9% | 10.4% | 2.4% | .272 | 3.60 | 19.6% | 9.7% | 129 | -0.45 | 3.20 | 386 | 86 |
| Jake Barrett R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.64 | 22.4% | 9.6% | 2.2% | .250 | 3.83 | 24.1% | 12.5% | 118 | +0.19 | 1.48 | 230 | 86 |
| Roman Mendez R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.38 | 19.1% | 8.1% | 3.4% | .275 | 4.54 | 20.2% | 10.4% | 118 | +0.16 | 4.12 | 230 | 86 |
| Matt Pierpont R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.50 | 20.7% | 8.6% | 1.9% | .295 | 3.39 | 21.6% | 13.6% | 156 | -0.11 | 2.79 | 280 | 86 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.