Stefan Raeth — OGILVIE

Stefan Raeth P Arkansas Travelers

Age 25 RHP 6'0" / 195 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 37 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 105

ERA4.66

FIP4.66

K%19.8%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%11.0%

ROS IP37

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 37 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	21	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	7	0	8	35	7	5	1	0%	1.1	20.0%	14.3%	5.7%	2.9%	5.62	4.79	—
2022	21	A RAW	Modesto Nuts	7	0	8	35	7	5	1	0%	1.1	20.0%	14.3%	5.7%	2.9%	5.62	4.85	—
2023	22	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	40	0	49	222	54	29	3	0%	1.2	18.0%	15.4%	2.6%	2.0%	3.70	4.62	—
2023	22	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	40	0	49	222	54	29	3	0%	1.2	18.0%	15.4%	2.6%	2.0%	3.70	4.62	—
2023	22	A RAW	Modesto Nuts	40	0	49	222	54	29	3	0%	1.2	24.3%	13.1%	11.3%	1.4%	3.70	3.47	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	42	0	45	201	37	20	4	0%	1.1	14.2%	11.4%	2.7%	2.1%	3.77	4.51	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	42	0	45	201	37	20	4	0%	1.1	14.2%	11.4%	2.7%	2.1%	3.77	4.51	—
2024	23	A+ RAW	Everett AquaSox	42	0	45	201	37	20	4	0%	1.1	18.4%	10.0%	8.5%	2.0%	3.77	3.94	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	2	57	226	62	13	8	5%	1.3	21.4%	6.5%	15.0%	4.5%	3.14	4.60	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	2	57	226	62	13	8	5%	1.3	21.4%	6.5%	15.0%	4.5%	3.14	4.60	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	2	57	226	62	13	8	5%	1.3	27.4%	5.8%	21.7%	3.5%	3.14	3.43	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	16	0	21	92	16	10	3	0%	1.3	14.1%	12.0%	2.1%	3.9%	5.06	5.57	—
YTD	25	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	16	0	21	92	16	10	3	0%	1.3	14.1%	12.0%	2.1%	3.9%	5.06	5.57	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AA RAW	SEA	16	0	21	92	16	10	3	0%	1.3	17.4%	10.9%	6.5%	3.3%	5.06	4.80	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	SEA	49	0	52	218	45	19	7	0%	1.1	20.5%	8.8%	11.7%	3.2%	4.61	4.59	-0.0
2028	27	MLB MLE	SEA	48	0	51	214	44	19	7	0%	1.1	20.7%	8.9%	11.8%	3.2%	4.60	4.61	-0.0
2027	26	MLB CTX	SEA	22	0	23	97	20	9	3	0%	1.0	20.5%	8.8%	11.7%	3.2%	4.61	4.59	-0.0
2028	27	MLB CTX	SEA	30	0	32	135	28	12	4	0%	1.1	20.7%	8.9%	11.8%	3.2%	4.60	4.61	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		52	0	55	232	48	21	7	0%	1.1	20.7%	8.9%	11.8%	3.2%	4.60	4.22	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	175	77	26	0%	1.1	20.7%	8.9%	11.8%	3.2%	4.60	4.22	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		148	2	181	776	137	88	24	1%	1.2	17.6%	11.3%	6.3%	3.0%	3.79	4.71	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		164	2	200	859	152	97	26	1%	1.2	17.6%	11.3%	6.3%	3.0%	3.79	4.71	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Stefan Raeth (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.66	19.8%	8.8%	3.2%	—	4.60	20.6%	11.8%	102	-0.06	—	—	—
Roman Mendez R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	25	SU	4.31	19.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.275	4.52	20.2%	10.4%	118	+0.21	4.12	230	94
Daniel Corcino R 2016 · 4.37 FIP	25	SU	4.37	17.2%	7.5%	3.2%	.238	4.76	19.4%	8.2%	263	+0.39	3.84	299	89
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	88
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.55	17.5%	6.5%	168	+0.67	3.88	202	88
Austin Ross R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.19	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.78	4.41	121	87
Barrett Loseke R 2022 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	21.7%	10.1%	3.4%	.311	5.31	22.6%	11.3%	22	+0.89	4.42	152	86
Mario Morales R 2019 · 4.53 FIP	25	SU	4.53	18.4%	8.6%	3.5%	.342	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	108	86
J.R. Graham R 2015 · 4.39 FIP	25	SU	4.39	18.7%	7.4%	3.5%	.317	3.63	20.4%	10.1%	61	-0.76	3.31	125	86
Austin Smith R 2022 · 3.88 FIP	23	SU	3.88	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.15	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.27	3.88	148	86
Matt Carasiti R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	25	SU	3.68	22.2%	7.6%	2.7%	.313	3.36	23.4%	12.8%	93	-0.32	2.80	312	86
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	86
Kyle Whitten R 2023 · 4.35 FIP	24	SU	4.35	18.0%	9.5%	2.9%	.296	5.17	17.6%	7.7%	37	+0.82	4.32	152	86
Gavin Hollowell R 2023 · 4.55 FIP	25	SU	4.55	21.2%	10.1%	3.6%	.273	3.91	25.3%	12.6%	98	-0.64	2.41	226	86
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	25	SU	3.84	17.2%	9.8%	1.7%	.289	4.21	24.7%	12.1%	62	+0.37	3.84	181	85
Mark Peterson R 2016 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	17.8%	8.8%	3.5%	.287	4.78	13.7%	1.8%	52	+0.13	4.65	185	85
Chris Jefferson R 2022 · 3.53 FIP	25	SU	3.53	22.4%	10.2%	1.9%	.330	4.99	16.5%	3.9%	101	+1.46	3.53	140	85
Brad Schreiber R 2016 · 4.06 FIP	25	SU	4.06	16.5%	7.9%	2.5%	.304	4.23	17.3%	4.6%	57	+0.17	3.81	171	85
Jackson Hicks R 2023 · 3.90 FIP	25	SU	3.90	22.6%	10.5%	2.5%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	2.17	116	85
Taylor Floyd R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	25	SU	4.34	21.7%	10.8%	3.1%	.331	4.61	18.4%	8.9%	192	+0.27	3.48	359	85
Carlos Alvarado R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	25	SU	4.90	16.3%	10.0%	3.5%	.342	4.15	24.3%	14.8%	78	-0.75	2.68	102	85

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	46	20.4%	8.8%	1.23	4.62
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79