Gavin Hollowell

P Iowa Cubs

Age 29 RHP 6'7" / 215 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MIX3 levels	34	34	4.46	2.84	31.8%	13.6%	0.7	K 27.4% · BB 12.8% · FIP 3.19
2025	27	MIX2 levels	37	42	6.48	4.35	28.4%	12.4%	0.1	K 25.6% · BB 10.3% · FIP 4.28
2026	28	MIX2 levels	34	36	2.97	3.79	29.5%	16.7%	0.3	K 26.5% · BB 15.6% · FIP 3.95
2027PROJ	29	MLBCHC	43	45	4.74	4.92	25.0%	14.8%	-0.2
2028PROJ85% MLB	30	MLBCHC	34	36	4.91	5.06	24.2%	14.5%	-0.2
2029PROJ88% MLB	31	MLBCHC	30	31	5.09	5.24	23.4%	14.5%	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.1 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo48

K%37

xwOBA vs10

CompsJason Bulger (age 29) · Jose Veras (age 29) · Jim Miller (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 110

ERA4.74

FIP4.92

K%25.0%

BB%14.8%

K-BB%10.2%

Proj IP56

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL3535

CMD4040

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4894.4

Whiff%

p6427.5%

p3720.3%

xwOBA vs

p100.359

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	0	24	96	33	7	1	0%	1.0	26.4%	6.8%	19.6%	1.2%	2.25	2.41	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	0	24	96	33	7	1	0%	1.0	34.4%	7.3%	27.1%	1.0%	2.25	1.77	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	56	220	72	17	4	0%	1.2	27.6%	7.6%	20.0%	1.9%	3.72	2.79	+1.2
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	0	56	220	72	17	4	0%	1.2	32.7%	7.7%	25.0%	1.8%	3.72	2.36	+1.5
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	57	257	59	27	10	0%	1.3	21.5%	10.1%	11.4%	3.6%	4.89	4.53	+0.0
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	57	257	59	27	10	0%	1.3	23.0%	10.5%	12.5%	3.9%	4.89	4.73	-0.1
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	34	0	34	154	49	21	2	0%	1.0	27.4%	12.8%	14.7%	1.4%	4.46	3.19	+0.6
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	34	0	34	154	49	21	2	0%	1.0	27.4%	12.8%	14.7%	1.4%	4.46	3.19	+0.6
2024	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	34	0	34	154	49	21	2	0%	1.0	31.8%	13.6%	18.2%	1.3%	4.46	2.84	+0.7
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	42	201	57	25	7	0%	1.1	25.6%	10.3%	15.3%	3.7%	6.48	4.28	+0.1
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	42	201	57	25	7	0%	1.1	25.6%	10.3%	15.3%	3.7%	6.48	4.28	+0.1
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	0	42	201	57	25	7	0%	1.1	28.4%	12.4%	15.9%	3.5%	6.48	4.35	+0.1
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	36	156	46	26	3	0%	1.1	26.5%	15.6%	10.9%	2.0%	2.97	3.95	+0.3
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	36	156	46	26	3	0%	1.1	26.5%	15.6%	10.9%	2.0%	2.97	3.95	+0.3
2026	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	0	36	156	46	26	3	0%	1.1	29.5%	16.7%	12.8%	1.9%	2.97	3.79	+0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			55	0	66	299	64	37	12	0%	1.2	21.4%	12.4%	9.0%	4.0%	5.05	5.21	-0.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	CHC	43	0	45	190	48	28	6	0%	1.0	25.0%	14.8%	10.2%	3.1%	4.74	4.92	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	CHC	40	0	42	179	43	26	6	0%	1.1	24.2%	14.5%	9.6%	3.2%	4.91	5.06	-0.2
2029	31	MLB MLE	CHC	33	0	35	147	34	21	5	0%	1.1	23.4%	14.5%	8.9%	3.5%	5.09	5.24	-0.3
2028	30	MLB CTX	CHC	34	0	36	152	37	22	5	0%	1.1	24.2%	14.5%	9.6%	3.2%	4.91	5.06	-0.2
2029	31	MLB CTX	CHC	30	0	31	131	31	19	5	0%	1.0	23.4%	14.5%	8.9%	3.5%	5.09	5.24	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		119	0	133	582	131	78	21	0%	1.1	22.6%	13.4%	9.1%	3.7%	5.02	4.92	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		179	0	200	875	197	117	32	0%	1.1	22.6%	13.4%	9.1%	3.7%	5.02	4.92	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		222	0	249	1084	276	114	27	0%	1.1	25.5%	10.5%	15.0%	2.5%	4.30	3.67	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		178	0	200	871	222	91	22	0%	1.1	25.5%	10.5%	15.0%	2.5%	4.30	3.67	-1.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAIowa Cubs · 22 IPFIP 3.01 → 3.26 (+0.25)K% 35.9% → 30.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.87%	—	×0.860	30.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.48%	—	×0.900	16.63%
HR / BF /BF	1.09%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.20%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.01 → 3.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAIowa Cubs · 32 IPFIP 4.12 → 4.28 (+0.16)K% 29.7% → 25.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.75%	—	×0.860	25.58%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.39%	—	×0.900	10.25%
HR / BF /BF	3.80%	÷1.125	×1.100	3.71%

Result: FIP 4.12 → 4.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAIowa Cubs · 31 IPFIP 2.98 → 3.19 (+0.21)K% 31.9% → 27.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.91%	—	×0.860	27.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.18%	—	×0.900	12.77%
HR / BF /BF	1.42%	÷1.079	×1.100	1.45%

Result: FIP 2.98 → 3.19, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 23 IPFIP 3.18 → 3.41 (+0.23)K% 26.2% → 22.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.21%	—	×0.860	22.54%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.71%	—	×0.900	8.74%
HR / BF /BF	1.94%	÷1.062	×1.100	2.01%

Result: FIP 3.18 → 3.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAHartford Yard Goats · 49 IPFIP 1.98 → 2.79 (+0.82)K% 34.0% → 27.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.04%	—	×0.810	27.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.91%	—	×1.100	7.61%
HR / BF /BF	1.60%	÷0.992	×1.200	1.93%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 98).

Result: FIP 1.98 → 2.79, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AFresno Grizzlies · 22 IPFIP 1.45 → 2.41 (+0.96)K% 35.6% → 26.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.63%	—	×0.740	26.37%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.75%	—	×1.180	6.78%
HR / BF /BF	1.15%	÷1.218	×1.300	1.23%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 144).

Result: FIP 1.45 → 2.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gavin Hollowell (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.92	25.0%	14.8%	3.1%	—	5.14	23.8%	9.3%	77	+0.22	—	—	—
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	84
Jose Veras R 2010 · 4.10 FIP	29	SU	4.10	26.9%	14.4%	2.6%	.239	3.42	25.3%	14.8%	201	-0.68	3.37	422	81
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	79
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	79
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	79
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	76
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	76
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	160	76
Cody Hall R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	29	SU	4.03	26.8%	10.0%	3.5%	.299	3.92	25.9%	8.4%	19	-0.11	3.51	134	76
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	75
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	75
Dan Winkler R 2019 · 4.99 FIP	29	SU	4.99	20.6%	15.2%	3.1%	.237	4.44	23.0%	8.4%	104	-0.55	2.40	231	75
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	74
Art Warren R 2022 · 4.51 FIP	29	SU	4.51	24.2%	12.7%	3.4%	.316	6.77	18.2%	3.7%	27	+2.26	1.40	322	73
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	73
Kevin Lenik R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	27	SU	4.91	21.7%	14.9%	3.2%	.205	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	107	73
Grant Balfour R 2007 · 4.01 FIP	29	SU	4.01	24.8%	16.5%	1.7%	.406	2.81	28.4%	18.8%	181	-1.20	2.04	533	72
Scott Dohmann R 2007 · 4.28 FIP	29	SU	4.28	19.1%	12.5%	2.2%	.289	4.38	18.2%	9.1%	15	+0.10	4.28	173	72
Dennis Sarfate R 2009 · 4.81 FIP	28	SU	4.81	19.8%	13.9%	3.0%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	103	71
Gregory Infante R 2016 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	19.0%	12.3%	2.6%	.333	3.43	22.5%	15.8%	120	-1.04	2.97	230	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	50	23.3%	14.0%	1.35	4.94
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Amir Garrett ('24)	1.7	55	26.7%	13.3%	1.52	4.95
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Jeff Jones ('80-'84, -2 WAR*)	1.0	41	22.0%*	12.4%*	1.48*	4.53*