Gavin Hollowell — OGILVIE

Gavin Hollowell P Iowa Cubs

Age 28 RHP 6'7" / 215 lbs AAA ILInjured 15-Day (D15)

2026 ROS PROJECTION35 act + 3 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116107vR 99

ERA4.33

FIP4.34

K%24.2%

BB%12.5%

K-BB%11.7%

ROS IP3

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 38 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL3535

CMD4040

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4894.4

Whiff%

p6627.8%

p4221.0%

xwOBA vs

p170.351

FB+1.0 (66%)

SI (21%)

SL-1.3 (34%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	0	24	96	33	7	1	0%	1.0	26.4%	6.8%	19.6%	1.2%	2.25	2.41	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	0	24	96	33	7	1	0%	1.0	34.4%	7.3%	27.1%	1.0%	2.25	1.77	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	56	220	72	17	4	0%	1.2	27.6%	7.6%	20.0%	1.9%	3.72	2.79	+1.2
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	0	56	220	72	17	4	0%	1.2	32.7%	7.7%	25.0%	1.8%	3.72	2.36	+1.5
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	57	257	59	27	10	0%	1.3	21.2%	10.1%	11.1%	3.6%	4.89	4.55	-0.0
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	57	257	59	27	10	0%	1.3	21.2%	10.1%	11.1%	3.6%	4.89	4.55	-0.0
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	57	257	59	27	10	0%	1.3	23.0%	10.5%	12.5%	3.9%	4.89	4.73	-0.1
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	34	0	34	154	49	21	2	0%	1.0	26.5%	12.8%	13.7%	1.4%	4.46	3.27	+0.5
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	34	0	34	154	49	21	2	0%	1.0	26.5%	12.8%	13.7%	1.4%	4.46	3.27	+0.5
2024	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	34	0	34	154	49	21	2	0%	1.0	31.8%	13.6%	18.2%	1.3%	4.46	2.84	+0.7
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	42	201	57	25	7	0%	1.1	24.7%	10.3%	14.4%	3.7%	6.48	4.35	+0.1
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	42	201	57	25	7	0%	1.1	24.7%	10.3%	14.4%	3.7%	6.48	4.35	+0.1
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	0	42	201	57	25	7	0%	1.1	28.4%	12.4%	15.9%	3.5%	6.48	4.35	+0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			54	0	66	297	64	36	12	0%	1.2	21.5%	12.1%	9.4%	4.0%	5.07	5.17	-0.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	32	0	35	149	42	24	3	0%	1.1	24.9%	15.0%	9.8%	2.1%	3.12	4.07	+0.2
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	32	0	35	149	42	24	3	0%	1.1	24.9%	15.0%	9.8%	2.1%	3.12	4.07	+0.2
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	AAA RAW	CHC	18	0	20	87	29	16	1	0%	1.1	33.3%	18.4%	14.9%	1.1%	3.54	3.25	—
2026	28	MLB RAW	CHC	14	0	14	62	13	8	2	0%	1.0	21.0%	12.9%	8.1%	3.2%	2.51	4.73	-0.0
SO FAR	28	MLB RAW	CHC	14	0	14	62	13	8	2	0%	1.0	21.0%	12.9%	8.1%	3.2%	2.51	4.73	-0.0
ROS	28	MLB MLE	CHC	3	0	3	13	3	2	0	0%	1.0	24.2%	12.5%	11.7%	3.1%	4.33	4.34	+0.0
ROS	28	MLB CTX	CHC	3	0	3	13	3	2	0	0%	1.0	24.2%	12.5%	11.7%	3.1%	4.33	4.34	+0.0
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	CHC	—	—	38	162	45	26	3	—	—	27.9%	15.8%	12.0%	2.1%	3.21	4.09	+0.2
FULL	28	MLB A+C	CHC	—	—	17	73	45	26	3	—	—	61.6%	34.9%	26.6%	4.6%	6.98	4.87	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	CHC	49	0	52	217	50	26	7	0%	1.1	22.9%	12.1%	10.7%	3.3%	4.81	4.88	-0.2
2028	30	MLB MLE	CHC	46	0	48	204	45	25	7	0%	1.1	22.2%	12.2%	10.0%	3.4%	4.93	5.04	-0.3
2027	29	MLB CTX	CHC	47	0	49	207	47	25	7	0%	1.0	22.9%	12.1%	10.7%	3.3%	4.81	4.88	-0.2
2028	30	MLB CTX	CHC	44	0	46	194	43	24	7	0%	1.0	22.2%	12.2%	10.0%	3.4%	4.93	5.04	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		147	0	164	710	157	86	26	0%	1.1	22.2%	12.1%	10.0%	3.6%	4.94	4.76	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		180	0	200	869	192	105	32	0%	1.1	22.2%	12.1%	10.0%	3.6%	4.94	4.76	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		220	0	247	1077	268	112	27	0%	1.1	24.9%	10.4%	14.5%	2.5%	4.33	3.72	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		178	0	200	871	217	90	22	0%	1.1	24.9%	10.4%	14.5%	2.5%	4.33	3.72	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gavin Hollowell (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.69	24.0%	12.1%	3.1%	—	4.96	22.5%	10.4%	100	+0.27	—	—	—
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	81
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	81
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	81
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	80
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	80
Michael Flynn R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	26	SU	4.31	26.5%	11.2%	3.7%	.299	4.42	20.8%	10.2%	92	+0.11	3.89	168	79
Matt Ramsey R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	28	SU	3.78	24.9%	8.8%	3.0%	.276	2.42	21.7%	12.6%	34	-1.36	2.42	125	79
José Cisnero R 2016 · 4.50 FIP	27	SU	4.50	26.1%	11.7%	3.9%	.367	3.90	24.5%	13.3%	75	-0.60	2.26	279	78
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	28	SU	4.43	23.3%	13.6%	2.9%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	2.64	315	78
Javy Guerra R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	30	SU	4.29	21.3%	13.9%	2.3%	.303	3.95	19.5%	13.0%	193	-0.34	2.95	260	78
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	78
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	77
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.55	17.5%	6.5%	168	+0.67	3.88	202	77
Michael Ynoa R 2019 · 4.68 FIP	27	SU	4.68	23.1%	13.8%	3.3%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	142	77
Arcenio Leon R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	17.9%	12.5%	2.9%	.450	3.37	18.0%	9.1%	85	-1.36	3.00	115	77
Al Alburquerque R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	29	SU	3.54	21.4%	11.1%	1.5%	.330	3.23	21.3%	12.5%	114	-0.31	2.84	228	77
Brad Deppermann R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	22.7%	9.4%	3.4%	.417	2.87	19.5%	13.2%	71	-1.38	1.94	143	77
Neil Ramírez R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	28	SU	4.66	27.1%	12.5%	4.1%	.389	4.86	29.1%	19.7%	116	+0.20	3.21	220	76
David Hernandez R 2015 · 4.40 FIP	30	SU	4.40	22.9%	7.6%	4.1%	.287	3.17	24.9%	18.4%	192	-1.23	2.60	268	76
Tanner Scheppers R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SU	4.37	17.7%	11.2%	2.5%	.263	4.86	15.7%	9.0%	48	+0.49	4.37	101	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	50	23.0%	12.1%	1.27	4.81
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33