Gavin Hollowell
P
Iowa Cubs
+0.0
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 28
RHP
6'7" / 215 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2027
ERA5.04
FIP4.48
xFIP4.56
SIERA4.79
K%24.8%
BB%11.1%
K-BB%13.6%
IP29
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2027
STUF5050
CTRL3535
CMD4040
K†6060
FB Velo
p3493.4
Whiff%
p5125.5%
K%
p4120.8%
xwOBA vs
p130.356
FB+1.0 (66%)
SI (21%)
SL-1.3 (34%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 24 | 0 | 24 | 96 | 33 | 7 | 1 | 26.4% | 6.8% | 1.2% | 2.25 | 2.39 | +0.7 |
| 2022 | 24 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 48 | 0 | 56 | 220 | 72 | 17 | 4 | 27.6% | 7.6% | 1.9% | 3.72 | 2.79 | +1.4 |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 45 | 0 | 57 | 257 | 59 | 27 | 10 | 21.7% | 10.7% | 3.8% | 4.89 | 4.69 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 34 | 0 | 34 | 154 | 49 | 21 | 2 | 28.1% | 14.9% | 1.4% | 4.46 | 3.41 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 37 | 0 | 42 | 201 | 57 | 25 | 7 | 26.2% | 12.0% | 3.7% | 6.48 | 4.43 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 3 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 9 | 4 | 1 | — | — | — | 3.86 | — | — |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | CHC | 12 | — | 12 | 49 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 24.0% | 12.4% | 3.1% | 5.28 | 4.75 | +0.0 |
| 2026 Total | 28 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 16 | 71 | 21 | 10 | 3 | 29.3% | 14.2% | 3.6% | 4.87 | 3.39 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | CHC | 28 | — | 28 | 119 | 28 | 15 | 4 | 23.5% | 12.2% | 3.2% | 4.96 | 4.78 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 191 | 0 | 217 | 950 | 247 | 102 | 26 | 26.0% | 10.7% | 2.7% | 4.51 | 3.75 | +3.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 176 | 0 | 200 | 874 | 227 | 94 | 24 | 26.0% | 10.7% | 2.7% | 4.51 | 3.75 | +3.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Gavin Hollowell (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.75 | 24.0% | 12.4% | 3.1% | — | 4.78 | 23.5% | 11.3% | 28 | +0.03 | — | — | — |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.85 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.1% | .265 | 3.87 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.98 | 3.45 | 315 | 80 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2028 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 79 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2027 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.6% | .241 | 3.99 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.34 | 3.47 | 149 | 79 |
| Joe Colón J R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.5% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 113 | 79 |
| Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.76 | 24.9% | 8.8% | 3.0% | .276 | 2.42 | 21.7% | 12.6% | 34 | -1.34 | 2.42 | 125 | 79 |
| José Cisnero R 2025 · 4.50 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.50 | 26.1% | 11.7% | 3.9% | .367 | 3.92 | 24.5% | 13.3% | 75 | -0.58 | 2.26 | 279 | 79 |
| Peyton Gray R 2024 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.26 | 29.2% | 14.1% | 3.4% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.26 | 104 | 79 |
| Cole McDonald R 2025 · 5.16 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.16 | 21.1% | 13.8% | 3.8% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.84 | 153 | 79 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.51 | 23.3% | 13.6% | 3.0% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.65 | 315 | 78 |
| Ronald Peña R 2025 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.57 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.9% | .355 | 4.49 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | -0.08 | 3.70 | 187 | 77 |
| Michael Ynoa R 2025 · 4.68 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.68 | 23.1% | 13.8% | 3.2% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 142 | 77 |
| Daniel Robert R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.63 | 23.3% | 12.5% | 1.7% | .310 | 3.09 | 25.8% | 16.6% | 87 | -0.54 | 2.28 | 186 | 76 |
| Neil Ramírez R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.75 | 27.1% | 12.5% | 4.3% | .389 | 4.77 | 29.1% | 19.7% | 116 | +0.02 | 3.10 | 220 | 76 |
| Casey Legumina R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.01 | 25.1% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 283 | 76 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.82 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .275 | 6.70 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +1.88 | 3.88 | 180 | 76 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.85 | 17.9% | 12.5% | 3.1% | .450 | 3.38 | 18.0% | 9.1% | 85 | -1.47 | 3.01 | 115 | 76 |
| David Hernandez R 2028 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.62 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.5% | .287 | 3.18 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.44 | 2.56 | 268 | 75 |
| Javy Guerra R 2028 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.3% | .303 | 3.87 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.43 | 3.01 | 260 | 75 |
| Mason Vinyard R 2024 · 4.41 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.41 | 21.8% | 14.5% | 2.4% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.60 | 154 | 75 |
| Steve Johnson R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.88 | 25.1% | 10.9% | 2.8% | .242 | 4.52 | 20.3% | 11.4% | 59 | +0.64 | 2.21 | 152 | 75 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.