Gavin Hollowell
P
Iowa Cubs
Age 28
RHP
6'7" / 215 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION27 act + 44 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116107vR 98
ERA4.24
FIP4.28
K%26.0%
BB%14.1%
K-BB%11.9%
ROS IP44
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 71 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
FB+1.0 (66%)
SI (21%)
SL-1.3 (34%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 0 | 24 | 96 | 33 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.4% | 6.8% | 19.6% | 1.0% | 2.25 | 2.30 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 0 | 24 | 96 | 33 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 34.4% | 7.3% | 27.1% | 1.0% | 2.25 | 1.77 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 56 | 220 | 72 | 17 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 27.6% | 7.6% | 20.0% | 1.9% | 3.72 | 2.80 | +1.1 |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 56 | 220 | 72 | 17 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 32.7% | 7.7% | 25.0% | 1.8% | 3.72 | 2.36 | +1.4 |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 57 | 257 | 59 | 27 | 10 | 0% | 1.3 | 21.7% | 10.7% | 11.0% | 3.1% | 4.89 | 4.35 | +0.1 |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 57 | 257 | 59 | 27 | 10 | 0% | 1.3 | 23.0% | 10.5% | 12.5% | 3.9% | 4.89 | 4.73 | -0.1 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 34 | 0 | 34 | 154 | 49 | 21 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.1% | 14.9% | 13.2% | 1.3% | 4.46 | 3.35 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 34 | 0 | 34 | 154 | 49 | 21 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 31.8% | 13.6% | 18.2% | 1.3% | 4.46 | 2.84 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 0 | 42 | 201 | 57 | 25 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.2% | 12.0% | 14.2% | 3.3% | 6.48 | 4.24 | +0.2 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 0 | 42 | 201 | 57 | 25 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.4% | 12.4% | 15.9% | 3.5% | 6.48 | 4.35 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 23 | 0 | 27 | 118 | 36 | 22 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 31.7% | 19.6% | 12.1% | 1.5% | 3.33 | 3.71 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | CHC | 42 | 0 | 44 | 187 | 49 | 26 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.0% | 14.1% | 11.9% | 2.9% | 4.24 | 4.28 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | CHC | 42 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 48 | 26 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.0% | 14.1% | 11.9% | 2.9% | 4.24 | 4.28 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 71 | 305 | 85 | 48 | 8 | — | — | 27.7% | 15.8% | 11.9% | 2.8% | 3.90 | 4.06 | +0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 54 | 228 | 85 | 48 | 8 | — | — | 37.1% | 21.2% | 15.9% | 3.7% | 5.15 | 4.68 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | CHC | 49 | 0 | 52 | 217 | 51 | 30 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.6% | 13.7% | 9.9% | 3.3% | 4.94 | 5.02 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | CHC | 46 | 0 | 48 | 204 | 47 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 13.7% | 9.2% | 3.5% | 5.06 | 5.18 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | CHC | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 42 | 26 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 13.8% | 8.4% | 3.7% | 5.22 | 5.37 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | CHC | 47 | 0 | 49 | 207 | 49 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.6% | 13.7% | 9.9% | 3.3% | 4.94 | 5.02 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | CHC | 44 | 0 | 46 | 194 | 45 | 27 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 13.7% | 9.2% | 3.5% | 5.06 | 5.18 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | CHC | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 40 | 25 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 13.8% | 8.4% | 3.7% | 5.22 | 5.37 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 221 | 0 | 243 | 1046 | 242 | 142 | 38 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 13.6% | 9.5% | 3.6% | 4.98 | 4.84 | +1.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 182 | 0 | 200 | 861 | 199 | 117 | 31 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 13.6% | 9.5% | 3.6% | 4.98 | 4.84 | +1.3 | ||
| Career | — | 211 | 0 | 240 | 1046 | 275 | 121 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.3% | 11.6% | 14.7% | 2.3% | 4.39 | 3.60 | +5.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 176 | 0 | 200 | 873 | 229 | 101 | 20 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.3% | 11.6% | 14.7% | 2.3% | 4.39 | 3.60 | +4.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Gavin Hollowell (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.74 | 24.8% | 13.4% | 3.0% | — | 5.18 | 23.0% | 9.2% | 145 | +0.44 | — | — | — |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 80 |
| Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.83 | 22.7% | 14.1% | 3.4% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.87 | 232 | 80 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2028 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 79 |
| Cole McDonald R 2025 · 5.38 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.38 | 21.1% | 13.8% | 4.2% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.72 | 153 | 79 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.63 | 23.3% | 13.6% | 3.2% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.69 | 315 | 79 |
| Javy Guerra R 2028 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .303 | 3.99 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.26 | 2.95 | 260 | 79 |
| Joe Colón J R 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.04 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 113 | 78 |
| Michael Ynoa R 2025 · 4.64 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.64 | 23.1% | 13.8% | 3.2% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 142 | 77 |
| José Cisnero R 2025 · 4.40 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.40 | 26.1% | 11.7% | 3.7% | .367 | 4.02 | 24.5% | 13.3% | 75 | -0.38 | 2.28 | 279 | 77 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.96 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.8% | .275 | 7.33 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +2.37 | 3.78 | 180 | 77 |
| Ronald Peña R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.51 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .355 | 4.54 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | +0.03 | 3.57 | 187 | 77 |
| Peyton Gray R 2024 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.31 | 29.2% | 14.1% | 3.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.87 | 138 | 76 |
| Neil Ramírez R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.68 | 27.1% | 12.5% | 4.2% | .389 | 4.81 | 29.1% | 19.7% | 116 | +0.13 | 3.15 | 220 | 75 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2027 · 4.07 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.07 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .241 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.01 | 3.28 | 149 | 75 |
| Kevin Lenik R 2025 · 4.93 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.93 | 21.7% | 14.9% | 3.2% | .205 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.04 | 107 | 75 |
| Kyle Barraclough R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.53 | 24.5% | 12.7% | 3.5% | .219 | 4.93 | 30.1% | 17.0% | 86 | +0.40 | 1.95 | 523 | 75 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.44 | 17.9% | 12.5% | 2.3% | .450 | 3.38 | 18.0% | 9.1% | 85 | -1.06 | 3.03 | 115 | 75 |
| Grant Sides R 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.89 | 22.4% | 11.9% | 2.1% | .247 | 3.24 | 21.7% | 11.9% | 47 | -0.65 | 3.24 | 159 | 75 |
| Al Alburquerque R 2027 · 3.58 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.58 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.18 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 114 | -0.40 | 2.76 | 228 | 75 |
| Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.87 | 24.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .276 | 2.42 | 21.7% | 12.6% | 34 | -1.45 | 2.42 | 125 | 75 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 50 | 23.5% | 13.7% | 1.29 | 4.97 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |