Art Warren
P
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders
Age 33
RHP
6'3" / 230 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 85 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131121vR 112
ERA5.15
FIP5.12
K%23.6%
BB%13.9%
K-BB%9.7%
ROS IP85
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 85 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p3693.5
Whiff%
p7929.8%
K%
p6124.2%
xwOBA vs
p300.335
SL+0.5
FB-5.6
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | ROK | AZL Mariners | 6 | 0 | 7 | 29 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 34.5% | 10.3% | 24.1% | 0.0% | 3.86 | 1.50 | — |
| 2015 | 22 | ROK | AZL Mariners | 6 | 0 | 7 | 29 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 34.5% | 10.3% | 24.1% | 0.0% | 3.86 | 1.53 | — |
| 2016 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 20 | 111 | 490 | 93 | 46 | 2 | 74% | 4.1 | 14.3% | 10.9% | 3.4% | 0.5% | 3.17 | 3.58 | — |
| 2016 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 20 | 111 | 490 | 93 | 46 | 2 | 74% | 4.1 | 19.0% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 0.4% | 3.17 | 2.90 | — |
| 2017 | 24 | A+ | Modesto Nuts | 43 | 0 | 65 | 271 | 67 | 25 | 5 | 0% | 1.5 | 19.0% | 10.6% | 8.4% | 3.2% | 3.06 | 4.57 | — |
| 2017 | 24 | A+ | Modesto Nuts | 43 | 0 | 65 | 271 | 67 | 25 | 5 | 0% | 1.5 | 24.7% | 9.2% | 15.5% | 1.8% | 3.06 | 3.19 | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 14 | 0 | 16 | 69 | 22 | 14 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.8% | 22.3% | 3.5% | 0.0% | 1.72 | 3.75 | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 14 | 0 | 16 | 69 | 22 | 14 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 31.9% | 20.3% | 11.6% | 0.0% | 1.72 | 2.97 | — |
| 2019 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 0 | 37 | 149 | 46 | 15 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.9% | 11.2% | 14.8% | 1.6% | 1.46 | 3.23 | +0.6 |
| 2019 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 0 | 37 | 149 | 46 | 15 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 30.9% | 10.1% | 20.8% | 0.7% | 1.46 | 2.18 | +1.0 |
| 2021 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 37 | 154 | 64 | 11 | 2 | 0% | 0.9 | 39.2% | 7.3% | 31.9% | 1.2% | 2.92 | 1.38 | +1.4 |
| 2021 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 37 | 154 | 64 | 11 | 2 | 0% | 0.9 | 41.6% | 7.1% | 34.4% | 1.3% | 2.92 | 1.24 | +1.4 |
| 2022 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 43 | 0 | 40 | 181 | 45 | 22 | 6 | 0% | 0.9 | 24.2% | 12.7% | 11.5% | 3.4% | 5.85 | 4.56 | -0.0 |
| 2022 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 43 | 0 | 40 | 181 | 45 | 22 | 6 | 0% | 0.9 | 24.9% | 12.2% | 12.7% | 3.3% | 5.85 | 4.45 | +0.0 |
| 2024 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 0 | 31 | 162 | 35 | 24 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.6% | 16.9% | 1.8% | 5.9% | 8.51 | 6.90 | — |
| 2024 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 0 | 31 | 162 | 35 | 24 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 14.8% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 8.51 | 6.56 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | NYY | 124 | 0 | 131 | 552 | 130 | 77 | 19 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.6% | 13.9% | 9.7% | 3.4% | 5.15 | 5.12 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | NYY | 113 | 0 | 119 | 502 | 113 | 69 | 18 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 13.8% | 8.8% | 3.7% | 5.23 | 5.34 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | NYY | 102 | 0 | 107 | 451 | 97 | 63 | 18 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.6% | 13.9% | 7.7% | 4.0% | 5.41 | 5.59 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | NYY | 7 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.6% | 13.8% | 8.8% | 3.7% | 5.23 | 5.34 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | NYY | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.6% | 13.9% | 7.7% | 4.0% | 5.41 | 5.59 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 78 | 0 | 70 | 300 | 86 | 34 | 8 | 0% | 0.9 | 28.7% | 11.5% | 17.3% | 2.7% | 4.30 | 3.63 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 224 | 0 | 200 | 858 | 246 | 97 | 23 | 0% | 0.9 | 28.7% | 11.5% | 17.3% | 2.7% | 4.30 | 3.63 | +4.1 | ||
| Career | — | 237 | 20 | 343 | 1505 | 322 | 179 | 31 | 8% | 1.4 | 21.4% | 11.9% | 9.5% | 2.1% | 3.68 | 3.94 | +5.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 138 | 12 | 200 | 878 | 188 | 104 | 18 | 8% | 1.4 | 21.4% | 11.9% | 9.5% | 2.1% | 3.68 | 3.94 | +3.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Art Warren (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.12 | 23.6% | 13.9% | 3.4% | — | 5.46 | 22.1% | 8.3% | 226 | +0.34 | — | — | — |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.40 | 21.3% | 11.4% | 3.0% | .274 | 3.99 | 19.7% | 8.3% | 169 | -0.41 | 2.78 | 596 | 73 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.99 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 122 | 71 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2025 · 4.62 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.62 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.1% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 221 | 70 |
| Ryan Cook R 2024 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 67 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2029 · 4.09 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.09 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .267 | 6.61 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.52 | 4.09 | 145 | 67 |
| Manny Acosta R 2028 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 66 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 5.47 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.47 | 15.0% | 14.5% | 3.3% | .300 | 4.24 | 20.9% | 13.0% | 145 | -1.23 | 3.83 | 208 | 65 |
| Steve Cishek R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.03 | 21.3% | 10.5% | 2.6% | .234 | 3.81 | 23.2% | 12.9% | 155 | -0.22 | 2.80 | 453 | 64 |
| Jon Edwards R 2024 · 4.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.46 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 132 | 64 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.40 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.99 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.41 | 3.99 | 104 | 64 |
| Jake Sanchez R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.79 | 20.7% | 12.4% | 3.4% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.86 | 361 | 63 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.50 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .276 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.44 | 3.92 | 186 | 63 |
| Austin Adams R 2025 · 6.16 FIP | 32 | SU | 6.16 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 6.3% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 162 | 63 |
| Wade Davis R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.59 | 20.4% | 14.1% | 2.6% | .344 | 5.15 | 20.0% | 10.0% | 43 | +0.56 | 2.00 | 320 | 61 |
| Anthony Swarzak R 2026 · 5.34 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.34 | 22.2% | 10.3% | 5.1% | .274 | 6.16 | 16.1% | 14.3% | 12 | +0.82 | 2.45 | 260 | 61 |
| Felipe Arredondo R 2025 · 4.91 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.91 | 16.2% | 7.1% | 4.2% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 337 | 61 |
| Craig Stammen R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.32 | 22.5% | 7.6% | 3.9% | .257 | 2.99 | 23.9% | 19.8% | 185 | -1.33 | 1.87 | 407 | 60 |
| Mark Lowe R 2026 · 5.54 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.54 | 21.9% | 8.5% | 5.9% | .312 | 4.79 | 16.4% | 6.4% | 49 | -0.75 | 2.37 | 153 | 60 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 59 |
| Mark Serrano R 2026 · 5.21 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.21 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 5.1% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 120 | 59 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 119 | 22.7% | 13.9% | 1.42 | 5.25 |
| Josiah Gray ('23) | 3 | 126 | 22.6% | 10.8% | 1.88 | 4.64 |
| Brandon Finnegan ('18) | 3 | 80 | 19.7% | 11.6% | 1.57 | 4.19 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |