Art Warren — OGILVIE

Art Warren P Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Age 33 RHP 6'3" / 230 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 11 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 109

ERA5.05

FIP5.00

K%23.0%

BB%12.4%

K-BB%10.6%

ROS IP11

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 11 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF7070

CTRL3535

CMD6060

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3693.5

Whiff%

p7929.8%

p6124.2%

xwOBA vs

p300.335

SL+0.5

FB-5.6

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	22	ROK MLE	AZL Mariners	6	0	7	29	10	3	0	0%	1.2	34.5%	10.3%	24.1%	0.0%	3.86	1.50	—
2015	22	ROK RAW	AZL Mariners	6	0	7	29	10	3	0	0%	1.2	34.5%	10.3%	24.1%	0.0%	3.86	1.53	—
2016	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	20	111	490	93	46	2	74%	4.1	14.3%	10.9%	3.4%	0.5%	3.17	3.57	—
2016	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	20	111	490	93	46	2	74%	4.1	19.0%	9.4%	9.6%	0.4%	3.17	2.90	—
2017	24	A+ MLE	Modesto Nuts	43	0	65	271	67	25	5	0%	1.5	19.0%	10.6%	8.4%	2.7%	3.06	4.30	—
2017	24	A+ RAW	Modesto Nuts	43	0	65	271	67	25	5	0%	1.5	24.7%	9.2%	15.5%	1.8%	3.06	3.19	—
2018	25	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	14	0	16	69	22	14	0	0%	1.1	25.8%	22.3%	3.5%	0.0%	1.72	3.75	—
2018	25	AA RAW	Arkansas Travelers	14	0	16	69	22	14	0	0%	1.1	31.9%	20.3%	11.6%	0.0%	1.72	2.97	—
2019	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	37	149	46	15	1	0%	1.1	25.9%	11.2%	14.8%	1.2%	1.46	2.98	+0.7
2019	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	37	149	46	15	1	0%	1.1	30.9%	10.1%	20.8%	0.7%	1.46	2.18	+1.1
2021	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	37	154	64	11	2	0%	0.9	39.2%	7.3%	31.9%	1.3%	2.92	1.40	+1.4
2021	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	37	154	64	11	2	0%	0.9	41.6%	7.1%	34.4%	1.3%	2.92	1.24	+1.5
2022	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	43	0	40	181	45	22	6	0%	0.9	24.2%	12.7%	11.5%	3.4%	5.85	4.51	+0.0
2022	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	43	0	40	181	45	22	6	0%	0.9	24.9%	12.2%	12.7%	3.3%	5.85	4.45	+0.0
2024	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	0	31	162	35	24	8	0%	1.1	17.6%	14.5%	3.1%	6.1%	8.51	6.82	—
2024	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	0	31	162	35	24	8	0%	1.1	17.6%	14.5%	3.1%	6.1%	8.51	6.82	—
2024	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	0	31	162	35	24	8	0%	1.1	21.6%	14.8%	6.8%	4.9%	8.51	6.56	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			71	0	62	268	79	30	7	0%	0.9	29.5%	11.2%	18.3%	2.6%	4.19	3.47	+0.8
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	33	MLB	NYY	10	0	11	46	11	6	2	0%	1.1	23.0%	12.4%	10.6%	3.4%	5.05	5.00	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	34	MLB MLE	NYY	113	0	119	502	110	62	19	0%	1.1	22.0%	12.4%	9.5%	3.7%	5.12	5.23	-0.9
2028	35	MLB MLE	NYY	102	0	107	451	95	57	18	0%	1.0	21.0%	12.6%	8.4%	4.0%	5.31	5.49	-1.1
2027	34	MLB CTX	NYY	7	0	7	30	6	4	1	0%	1.0	22.0%	12.4%	9.5%	3.7%	5.12	5.23	-0.1
2028	35	MLB CTX	NYY	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	21.0%	12.6%	8.4%	4.0%	5.31	5.49	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		78	0	70	300	86	34	8	0%	0.9	28.7%	11.3%	17.3%	2.7%	4.29	3.61	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		224	0	200	858	246	97	23	0%	0.9	28.7%	11.3%	17.3%	2.7%	4.29	3.61	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		237	20	343	1505	321	175	30	8%	1.4	21.3%	11.6%	9.7%	2.0%	3.68	3.85	-1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		138	12	200	878	187	102	17	8%	1.4	21.3%	11.6%	9.7%	2.0%	3.68	3.85	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Art Warren (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.00	23.0%	12.4%	3.4%	—	5.35	21.5%	9.0%	226	+0.35	—	—	—
Ross Ohlendorf R 2016 · 4.93 FIP	33	SU	4.93	23.4%	10.7%	4.5%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	122	73
Bryan Shaw R 2021 · 4.39 FIP	33	SU	4.39	21.3%	11.4%	3.0%	.274	3.93	19.2%	8.7%	169	-0.46	2.78	596	71
Clayton Mortensen R 2017 · 4.59 FIP	32	SU	4.59	23.2%	14.2%	3.0%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	221	70
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	4.15	145	69
Manny Acosta R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	35	SU	4.19	18.1%	9.1%	2.7%	.273	3.08	23.2%	9.9%	44	-1.11	3.08	102	69
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	102	68
Jean Machi R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	33	SU	4.56	16.3%	8.6%	3.2%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.32	4.12	186	66
Austin Adams R 2019 · 5.80 FIP	32	SU	5.80	20.8%	10.6%	5.7%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	162	66
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	65
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	65
Felipe Arredondo R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	32	SU	4.65	16.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	337	65
Dustin McGowan R 2015 · 5.32 FIP	33	SU	5.32	15.0%	14.5%	3.0%	.300	4.23	20.9%	13.0%	145	-1.09	3.82	208	64
Craig Stammen R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	33	SU	4.12	22.5%	7.6%	3.6%	.257	2.86	23.9%	19.8%	185	-1.26	1.82	407	63
Jake Sanchez R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	33	SU	4.75	19.6%	10.6%	3.6%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	1.86	361	63
Mark Lowe R 2016 · 5.40 FIP	33	SU	5.40	21.9%	8.5%	5.6%	.312	5.03	16.4%	6.4%	49	-0.37	2.37	153	63
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	62
Josh Lueke R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	34	SU	4.11	20.4%	6.4%	3.5%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	107	61
Steve Cishek R 2019 · 4.12 FIP	33	SU	4.12	21.3%	10.5%	2.7%	.234	3.81	23.2%	12.9%	155	-0.31	2.86	453	61
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	61
John Axford R 2016 · 3.87 FIP	33	SU	3.87	20.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.304	4.05	22.1%	11.3%	76	+0.18	3.20	197	60

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	119	22.0%	12.5%	1.43	5.15
Josiah Gray ('23)	1.9	126	22.6%	10.8%	1.88	4.64
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Brandon Finnegan ('18)	1.2	80	19.7%	11.6%	1.57	4.19
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Ian Anderson ('22)	1.4	91	22.5%	10.4%	0.96	3.97
Triston McKenzie ('24)	2.1	105	26.0%	9.4%	1.52	3.94