Art Warren

P Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Age 34 RHP 6'3" / 230 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2021	28	MIX2 levels	41	0	37	2.92	1.24	41.6%	7.1%	1.5	K 39.2% · BB 7.3% · FIP 1.40
2022	29	MIX3 levels	43	0	40	5.85	4.45	24.9%	12.2%	0.0	K 24.2% · BB 12.7% · FIP 4.51
2024	31	MIX2 levels	28	0	31	8.51	6.56	21.6%	14.8%	—	K 18.2% · BB 14.5% · FIP 6.77
2025	32	No MLB games played
2026	33	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	34	MLBNYY	12	0	13	4.29	4.33	25.8%	9.9%	0.0
2028PROJ6% MLB	35	MLBNYY	5	0	5	4.51	4.66	24.4%	10.2%	-0.0
2029PROJMLE	36	MLBNYY	—	—	0	4.79	5.00	23.2%	10.6%	—

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.5 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2022

K%61

FB Velo36

xwOBA vs30

CompsFernando Rodriguez Jr. (age 34) · Keiichi Yabu (age 36) · Blake Parker (age 34)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.29

FIP4.33

K%25.8%

BB%9.9%

K-BB%15.9%

Proj IP131

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 131 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF7070

CTRL3535

CMD6060

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3693.5

Whiff%

p7929.8%

p6124.2%

xwOBA vs

p300.335

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	22	ROK MLE	AZL Mariners	6	0	7	29	10	3	0	0%	1.2	34.5%	10.3%	24.1%	0.0%	3.86	1.50	—
2015	22	ROK RAW	AZL Mariners	6	0	7	29	10	3	0	0%	1.2	34.5%	10.3%	24.1%	0.0%	3.86	1.53	—
2016	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	20	111	490	93	46	2	74%	4.1	14.3%	10.9%	3.4%	0.5%	3.17	3.57	—
2016	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	20	111	490	93	46	2	74%	4.1	19.0%	9.4%	9.6%	0.4%	3.17	2.90	—
2017	24	A+ MLE	Modesto Nuts	43	0	65	271	67	25	5	0%	1.5	19.0%	10.6%	8.4%	2.7%	3.06	4.30	—
2017	24	A+ RAW	Modesto Nuts	43	0	65	271	67	25	5	0%	1.5	24.7%	9.2%	15.5%	1.8%	3.06	3.19	—
2018	25	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	14	0	16	69	22	14	0	0%	1.1	25.8%	22.3%	3.5%	0.0%	1.72	3.75	—
2018	25	AA RAW	Arkansas Travelers	14	0	16	69	22	14	0	0%	1.1	31.9%	20.3%	11.6%	0.0%	1.72	2.97	—
2019	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	37	149	46	15	1	0%	1.1	25.9%	11.2%	14.8%	1.2%	1.46	2.98	+0.7
2019	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	37	149	46	15	1	0%	1.1	30.9%	10.1%	20.8%	0.7%	1.46	2.18	+1.1
2021	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	37	154	64	11	2	0%	0.9	39.2%	7.3%	31.9%	1.3%	2.92	1.40	+1.4
2021	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	37	154	64	11	2	0%	0.9	41.6%	7.1%	34.4%	1.3%	2.92	1.24	+1.5
2022	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	43	0	40	181	45	22	6	0%	0.9	24.2%	12.7%	11.5%	3.4%	5.85	4.51	+0.0
2022	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	43	0	40	181	45	22	6	0%	0.9	24.9%	12.2%	12.7%	3.3%	5.85	4.45	+0.0
2024	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	0	31	162	35	24	8	0%	1.1	18.2%	14.5%	3.8%	6.1%	8.51	6.77	—
2024	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	0	31	162	35	24	8	0%	1.1	18.2%	14.5%	3.8%	6.1%	8.51	6.77	—
2024	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	0	31	162	35	24	8	0%	1.1	21.6%	14.8%	6.8%	4.9%	8.51	6.56	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			71	0	62	268	79	30	7	0%	0.9	29.5%	11.2%	18.3%	2.6%	4.19	3.47	+0.8
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	34	MLB	NYY	12	0	13	55	14	5	2	0%	1.1	25.8%	9.9%	15.9%	3.2%	4.29	4.33	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	35	MLB MLE	NYY	93	0	98	414	101	42	15	0%	1.1	24.4%	10.2%	14.3%	3.6%	4.51	4.66	-0.1
2029	36	MLB MLE	NYY	72	0	75	317	74	34	12	0%	1.0	23.2%	10.6%	12.6%	3.9%	4.79	5.00	-0.4
2028	35	MLB CTX	NYY	5	0	5	21	5	2	1	0%	1.0	24.4%	10.2%	14.3%	3.6%	4.51	4.66	-0.0
2029	36	MLB CTX	NYY	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.2%	10.6%	12.6%	3.9%	4.79	5.00	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		76	0	68	291	85	32	8	0%	0.9	29.1%	11.1%	18.0%	2.7%	4.21	3.53	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		225	0	200	859	251	95	24	0%	0.9	29.1%	11.1%	18.0%	2.7%	4.21	3.53	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		237	20	343	1505	322	175	30	8%	1.4	21.4%	11.6%	9.8%	2.0%	3.68	3.85	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		138	12	200	878	188	102	17	8%	1.4	21.4%	11.6%	9.8%	2.0%	3.68	3.85	+0.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 27 IPFIP 6.55 → 6.77 (+0.22)K% 21.2% → 18.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.17%	—	×0.860	18.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.06%	—	×0.900	14.45%
HR / BF /BF	5.84%	÷1.045	×1.100	6.15%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 109).

Result: FIP 6.55 → 6.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ATampa Tarpons · 4 IPFIP 2.09 → 2.80 (+0.71)K% 24.0% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.00%	—	×0.740	17.76%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.00%	—	×1.180	9.44%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.979	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 96).

Result: FIP 2.09 → 2.80, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAALouisville Bats · 16 IPFIP 1.05 → 1.51 (+0.47)K% 41.7% → 36.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	41.67%	—	×0.880	36.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.56%	—	×1.050	5.83%
HR / BF /BF	1.39%	÷1.088	×1.100	1.40%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 118).

Result: FIP 1.05 → 1.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAArkansas Travelers · 32 IPFIP 2.11 → 2.98 (+0.87)K% 32.0% → 25.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.03%	—	×0.810	25.95%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.16%	—	×1.100	11.17%
HR / BF /BF	0.78%	÷0.784	×1.200	1.20%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 57).

Result: FIP 2.11 → 2.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAArkansas Travelers · 16 IPFIP 2.98 → 3.75 (+0.77)K% 31.9% → 25.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.88%	—	×0.810	25.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	20.29%	—	×1.100	22.32%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.925	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.98 → 3.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 A+Modesto Nuts · 65 IPFIP 3.19 → 4.30 (+1.11)K% 24.7% → 19.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.72%	—	×0.770	19.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.23%	—	×1.150	10.61%
HR / BF /BF	1.85%	÷0.866	×1.250	2.66%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 73).

Result: FIP 3.19 → 4.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AClinton LumberKings · 74 IPFIP 2.51 → 3.09 (+0.59)K% 17.9% → 13.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.92%	—	×0.740	13.26%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.86%	—	×1.180	6.92%
HR / BF /BF	0.33%	÷0.976	×1.300	0.43%

Result: FIP 2.51 → 3.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 A+Bakersfield Blaze · 37 IPFIP 3.58 → 4.36 (+0.78)K% 20.8% → 16.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.77%	—	×0.770	15.99%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.30%	—	×1.150	17.60%
HR / BF /BF	0.55%	÷0.973	×1.250	0.70%

Result: FIP 3.58 → 4.36, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Art Warren (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.33	25.8%	9.9%	3.2%	—	4.81	23.9%	13.5%	173	+0.48	—	—	—
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2018 · 4.07 FIP	34	SW	4.07	23.7%	9.9%	3.1%	.253	5.11	25.0%	13.8%	32	+1.04	3.34	335	64
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	62
Blake Parker R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	34	SU	4.65	25.5%	8.6%	4.8%	.258	4.26	24.9%	15.4%	87	-0.39	2.52	406	62
Jean Machi R 2016 · 4.36 FIP	34	SU	4.36	18.3%	6.6%	3.6%	.282	4.12	18.6%	12.0%	67	-0.24	2.16	306	62
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	61
Rafael Martín R 2017 · 3.40 FIP	33	SU	3.40	20.4%	5.1%	2.5%	.305	4.71	22.5%	16.5%	47	+1.31	2.94	227	61
Josh Lueke R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	34	SU	4.11	20.4%	6.4%	3.5%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	191	61
Greg Burke R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	22.1%	7.3%	2.7%	.241	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	139	60
Zack Segovia R 2016 · 3.33 FIP	33	SU	3.33	20.2%	5.9%	2.2%	.312	4.55	17.6%	4.0%	57	+1.22	3.33	144	60
Brendan Donnelly R 2005 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	19.6%	5.9%	3.3%	.264	4.02	17.6%	8.5%	98	-0.00	2.23	385	60
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2018 · 3.45 FIP	34	SU	3.45	22.5%	7.3%	2.4%	.242	3.97	24.6%	15.2%	65	+0.52	3.45	132	59
Scott McGough R 2024 · 4.56 FIP	34	SU	4.56	18.6%	12.2%	2.7%	.289	3.82	20.3%	13.1%	57	-0.74	3.55	429	59
Giovanni Carrara R 2002 · 4.78 FIP	34	SU	4.78	14.5%	7.2%	3.6%	.239	3.83	17.1%	7.9%	158	-0.95	2.50	462	58
Juan Sandoval R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	15.4%	6.0%	2.3%	.294	3.33	17.4%	8.8%	116	-0.49	3.24	225	57
Chris Jakubauskas R 2011 · 4.42 FIP	32	SW	4.42	15.7%	7.9%	3.0%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	165	57
Diego Moreno R 2021 · 4.75 FIP	34	SU	4.75	18.6%	9.4%	3.7%	.232	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	187	56
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	18.1%	11.3%	1.9%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	56
Ryan Brasier R 2022 · 3.55 FIP	34	SU	3.55	24.3%	4.6%	3.5%	.331	2.95	22.3%	16.1%	114	-0.60	2.31	426	55
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	54
Joe Nelson R 2009 · 5.35 FIP	34	SU	5.35	19.8%	14.3%	3.9%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	139	54

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	73	25.5%	10.5%	1.30	4.43
Mike Hartley ('89-'95, 2 WAR*)	1.6	80	24.3%*	9.9%*	1.09*	4.09*
Dave Tobik ('78-'85, 4 WAR*)	2.0	66	24.5%*	9.3%*	1.33*	3.87*
Hansel Robles ('22)	2.1	61	25.3%	10.2%	1.20	4.11
Colin Poche ('25)	1.1	54	26.7%	10.2%	1.32	4.01
Tony Cingrani ('18)	1.7	56	25.8%	11.3%	1.26	4.01
Danny Frisella ('67-'76, 4 WAR*)	3.0	68	24.8%*	11.0%*	1.25*	3.99*