Art Warren
P
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders
+0.1
WAR
Age 33
RHP
6'3" / 230 lbs
AAA
ERA4.87
FIP4.87
xFIP4.58
SIERA4.17
K%22.2%
BB%11.2%
K-BB%11.1%
IP20
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
STUF7070
CTRL3535
CMD6060
K†6060
FB Velo
p3693.5
Whiff%
p7929.8%
K%
p6124.2%
xwOBA vs
p300.335
SL+0.5
FB-5.6
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | ROK | AZL Mariners | 6 | 0 | 7 | 29 | 10 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 3.86 | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ | Bakersfield Blaze | 27 | 20 | 111 | 490 | 93 | 46 | 2 | 14.3% | 10.9% | 0.5% | 3.17 | 3.57 | +2.2 |
| 2017 | 24 | A+ | Modesto Nuts | 43 | 0 | 65 | 271 | 67 | 25 | 5 | 19.0% | 10.6% | 2.7% | 3.06 | 4.30 | +0.5 |
| 2018 | 25 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 14 | 0 | 16 | 69 | 22 | 14 | 0 | 25.8% | 22.3% | 0.0% | 1.72 | 3.75 | +0.2 |
| 2019 | 26 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 35 | 0 | 37 | 149 | 46 | 15 | 1 | 25.9% | 11.2% | 1.2% | 1.46 | 2.98 | +0.8 |
| 2021 | 28 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 41 | 0 | 37 | 154 | 64 | 11 | 2 | 39.2% | 7.3% | 1.3% | 2.92 | 1.40 | +1.5 |
| 2022 | 29 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 43 | 0 | 40 | 181 | 45 | 22 | 6 | 24.2% | 12.7% | 3.6% | 5.85 | 4.62 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 31 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 28 | 0 | 31 | 162 | 35 | 24 | 8 | 18.6% | 16.9% | 6.2% | 8.51 | 7.07 | -0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | NYY | 20 | — | 20 | 86 | 22 | 10 | 3 | 25.3% | 11.3% | 3.4% | 4.66 | 4.66 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | NYY | 20 | — | 20 | 84 | 21 | 10 | 3 | 24.4% | 11.3% | 3.5% | 4.71 | 4.77 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 237 | 20 | 343 | 1505 | 322 | 179 | 30 | 21.4% | 11.9% | 2.0% | 3.68 | 3.89 | +5.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 138 | 12 | 200 | 878 | 188 | 104 | 18 | 21.4% | 11.9% | 2.0% | 3.68 | 3.89 | +3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Art Warren (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.66 | 25.3% | 11.3% | 3.4% | — | 4.77 | 24.4% | 13.1% | 20 | +0.11 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 90 |
| Ryan Cook R 2024 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 82 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2025 · 3.52 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.52 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 2.2% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 115 | 80 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2028 · 3.50 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.50 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .290 | 3.90 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.40 | 3.50 | 219 | 79 |
| Jon Edwards R 2024 · 4.43 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.43 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.39 | 132 | 79 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.63 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 1.8% | .331 | 6.11 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.48 | 3.45 | 170 | 78 |
| Mark Lowe R 2026 · 5.28 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.28 | 21.9% | 8.5% | 5.4% | .312 | 5.01 | 16.4% | 6.4% | 49 | -0.27 | 2.30 | 153 | 78 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.98 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 122 | 77 |
| Mark Serrano R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.25 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 5.2% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 120 | 77 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2025 · 4.60 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.60 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.0% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.33 | 221 | 77 |
| Greg Holland R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.53 | 27.0% | 14.5% | 3.4% | .238 | 3.71 | 23.8% | 15.4% | 84 | -0.82 | 1.94 | 268 | 76 |
| Nate Jones R 2025 · 4.08 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.08 | 23.4% | 10.9% | 2.9% | .279 | 5.52 | 21.4% | 13.8% | 38 | +1.44 | 2.61 | 157 | 76 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.47 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.9% | .263 | 3.98 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.49 | 3.98 | 104 | 76 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2026 · 5.23 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.23 | 24.3% | 10.0% | 5.3% | .279 | 6.48 | 10.4% | -2.6% | 17 | +1.25 | 3.46 | 160 | 75 |
| Josh Lueke R 2027 · 4.14 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.14 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 3.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.32 | 107 | 75 |
| Tony Barnette R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.61 | 22.6% | 7.1% | 2.8% | .335 | 2.56 | 25.0% | 20.2% | 26 | -1.05 | 2.56 | 144 | 75 |
| Bud Norris R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.63 | 27.3% | 7.3% | 3.5% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 316 | 74 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.83 | 18.0% | 8.0% | 4.1% | .286 | 3.13 | 23.7% | 17.9% | 150 | -1.70 | 2.31 | 403 | 73 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2025 · 3.65 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.65 | 22.7% | 10.4% | 2.1% | .255 | 4.50 | 24.1% | 13.8% | 97 | +0.85 | 3.38 | 212 | 73 |
| Josh Lindblom R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.54 | 27.2% | 8.4% | 3.0% | .308 | 4.43 | 21.7% | 13.8% | 255 | +0.89 | 3.54 | 348 | 73 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.