Matt Carasiti
P
Gwinnett Stripers
+0.1
WAR
Age 35
RHP
6'2" / 205 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA5.21
FIP4.50
xFIP3.98
SIERA3.98
K%22.8%
BB%11.1%
K-BB%11.7%
IP28
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
STUF5050
CTRL3535
CMD3535
K†5555
FB Velo
p5795.0
Whiff%
p3523.1%
K%
p1014.5%
xwOBA vs
p160.352
CT+1.0 (18%)
SI (33%)
FB-2.5 (51%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | A+ | Modesto Nuts | 49 | 0 | 57 | 246 | 57 | 21 | 3 | 17.8% | 9.8% | 1.9% | 3.02 | 3.87 | +0.7 |
| 2016 | 25 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 63 | 0 | 62 | 258 | 65 | 19 | 6 | 22.2% | 7.6% | 2.7% | 3.79 | 3.68 | +0.9 |
| 2017 | 26 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 46 | 0 | 50 | 217 | 68 | 23 | 2 | 27.6% | 11.1% | 1.1% | 3.26 | 2.78 | +1.2 |
| 2019 | 28 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 42 | 5 | 53 | 232 | 50 | 23 | 6 | 18.6% | 10.0% | 2.2% | 3.74 | 4.01 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 31 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 23 | 0 | 22 | 110 | 28 | 12 | 4 | 22.4% | 11.5% | 4.0% | 8.31 | 4.87 | +0.0 |
| 2023 | 32 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 43 | 0 | 53 | 238 | 46 | 23 | 4 | 17.0% | 9.8% | 1.7% | 4.73 | 3.85 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 33 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 38 | 0 | 43 | 201 | 52 | 28 | 5 | 25.1% | 16.6% | 2.1% | 6.07 | 4.26 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | MLB | COL | 28 | — | 28 | 120 | 28 | 15 | 3 | 23.4% | 12.8% | 2.8% | 5.53 | 4.69 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | COL | 27 | — | 27 | 112 | 25 | 14 | 3 | 22.7% | 12.7% | 3.0% | 5.08 | 4.81 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 304 | 5 | 339 | 1502 | 320 | 160 | 32 | 21.3% | 10.7% | 2.1% | 4.30 | 3.82 | +5.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 179 | 3 | 200 | 886 | 189 | 94 | 19 | 21.3% | 10.7% | 2.1% | 4.30 | 3.82 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Matt Carasiti (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.69 | 23.4% | 12.8% | 2.8% | — | 4.81 | 22.7% | 9.9% | 27 | +0.12 | — | — | — |
| Wade Davis R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.06 | 20.0% | 10.0% | 4.3% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.00 | 320 | 80 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2025 · 3.94 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.94 | 18.1% | 12.9% | 1.3% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.48 | 147 | 78 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2029 · 4.17 FIP | 38 | SW | 4.17 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.0% | .272 | 3.38 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.79 | 2.67 | 295 | 78 |
| Rafael Dolis R 2025 · 3.60 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.60 | 19.9% | 11.9% | 1.2% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.80 | 162 | 76 |
| Mark Lowe R 2025 · 5.01 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.01 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.7% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 153 | 76 |
| Manny Acosta R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 76 |
| Radhames Liz R 2025 · 4.49 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.49 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 2.7% | .343 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.73 | 110 | 75 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.50 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .290 | 3.90 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.40 | 3.50 | 219 | 75 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2024 · 4.98 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.98 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 122 | 75 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2025 · 3.98 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.98 | 18.1% | 11.3% | 1.8% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 104 | 74 |
| Mark Serrano R 2024 · 5.25 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.25 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 5.2% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 120 | 72 |
| Josh Lueke R 2025 · 4.14 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.14 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 3.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.32 | 107 | 72 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2029 · 3.55 FIP | 38 | SW | 3.55 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 2.6% | .179 | 4.12 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.57 | 3.55 | 164 | 72 |
| Brian Schlitter R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.71 | 14.9% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.31 | 244 | 72 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2027 · 4.12 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.12 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .267 | 6.46 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.34 | 4.12 | 145 | 72 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2024 · 4.36 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.36 | 20.5% | 11.5% | 2.8% | .412 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 137 | 71 |
| Zack Segovia R 2027 · 4.52 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.52 | 17.6% | 13.6% | 2.2% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.37 | 144 | 71 |
| Jason Motte R 2026 · 5.24 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.24 | 16.3% | 11.4% | 3.8% | .193 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 113 | 71 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.14 | 25.0% | 11.2% | 5.0% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.38 | 212 | 71 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.52 | 16.8% | 7.8% | 3.4% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.57 | 251 | 70 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.