Matt Carasiti — OGILVIE

Matt Carasiti P Gwinnett Stripers

Age 35 RHP 6'2" / 205 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA4.96

FIP5.00

K%20.9%

BB%13.7%

K-BB%7.3%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 4 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL3535

CMD3535

K†5050

CT+1.0 (18%)

SI (33%)

FB-2.5 (51%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	24	A+ MLE	Modesto Nuts	49	0	57	246	57	21	3	0%	1.2	17.8%	9.8%	8.0%	1.8%	3.02	3.85	—
2015	24	A+ RAW	Modesto Nuts	49	0	57	246	57	21	3	0%	1.2	23.2%	8.5%	14.6%	1.2%	3.02	2.89	—
2016	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	63	0	62	258	65	19	6	0%	1.0	22.2%	7.6%	14.7%	2.7%	3.79	3.68	+0.6
2016	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	63	0	62	258	65	19	6	0%	1.0	25.2%	7.4%	17.8%	2.3%	3.79	3.18	+1.0
2017	26	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	46	0	50	217	68	23	2	0%	1.1	27.6%	11.1%	16.4%	1.1%	3.26	2.80	—
2017	26	AAA RAW	Iowa Cubs	46	0	50	217	68	23	2	0%	1.1	31.3%	10.6%	20.7%	0.9%	3.26	2.27	—
2019	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	5	53	232	50	23	6	12%	1.3	18.6%	10.0%	8.6%	2.2%	3.74	4.01	+0.3
2019	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	5	53	232	50	23	6	12%	1.3	21.6%	9.9%	11.6%	2.6%	3.74	3.99	+0.4
2022	31	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	23	0	22	110	28	12	4	0%	0.9	22.4%	11.5%	10.9%	4.0%	8.31	4.88	—
2022	31	AAA RAW	Sacramento River Cats	23	0	22	110	28	12	4	0%	0.9	25.5%	10.9%	14.5%	3.6%	8.31	4.58	—
2023	32	MIX MLE	3 levels	43	0	53	238	46	23	4	0%	1.2	16.4%	9.1%	7.3%	1.6%	4.73	3.76	+0.5
2023	32	MIX MLE	3 levels	43	0	53	238	46	23	4	0%	1.2	16.4%	9.1%	7.3%	1.6%	4.73	3.76	+0.5
2023	32	MIX RAW	3 levels	43	0	53	238	46	23	4	0%	1.2	19.3%	9.7%	9.7%	1.7%	4.73	3.64	+0.6
2024	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	43	201	52	28	5	0%	1.1	23.6%	14.2%	9.4%	2.2%	6.07	4.09	+0.2
2024	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	43	201	52	28	5	0%	1.1	23.6%	14.2%	9.4%	2.2%	6.07	4.09	+0.2
2024	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	0	43	201	52	28	5	0%	1.1	25.9%	13.9%	11.9%	2.5%	6.07	4.15	+0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			53	5	58	279	50	30	8	9%	1.1	17.9%	10.8%	7.2%	2.9%	7.41	4.71	-0.1
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	35	MLB	COL	4	0	4	17	4	2	0	0%	1.0	20.9%	13.7%	7.3%	2.8%	4.96	5.00	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	36	MLB MLE	COL	41	0	43	182	37	25	6	0%	1.0	20.2%	13.8%	6.3%	3.2%	5.14	5.30	-0.4
2027	36	MLB CTX	COL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.2%	13.8%	6.3%	3.2%	5.14	5.30	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		53	5	59	281	50	30	8	9%	1.1	17.9%	10.8%	7.2%	2.9%	7.39	4.53	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		182	17	200	956	170	102	27	9%	1.1	17.9%	10.8%	7.2%	2.9%	7.39	4.53	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		304	5	339	1502	316	154	32	2%	1.1	21.0%	10.2%	10.8%	2.1%	4.30	3.79	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		179	3	200	886	186	91	19	2%	1.1	21.0%	10.2%	10.8%	2.1%	4.30	3.79	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matt Carasiti (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.00	20.9%	13.7%	2.8%	—	5.30	20.2%	6.3%	43	+0.30	—	—	—
Carlos Fisher R 2017 · 3.91 FIP	34	SU	3.91	18.1%	12.9%	1.3%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	147	84
Manny Acosta R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	35	SU	4.19	18.1%	9.1%	2.7%	.273	3.08	23.2%	9.9%	44	-1.11	3.08	102	82
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	18.1%	11.3%	1.9%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	81
Fernando Rodney R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	38	SU	4.37	20.9%	9.4%	3.4%	.272	3.37	26.2%	15.2%	185	-1.00	2.69	295	81
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	80
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	4.15	145	80
Mark Lowe R 2017 · 5.03 FIP	34	SU	5.03	16.4%	10.0%	3.7%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	2.37	153	80
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2019 · 6.14 FIP	34	SU	6.14	17.9%	14.2%	5.0%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	170	79
Wade Davis R 2021 · 5.18 FIP	35	SU	5.18	20.0%	10.0%	4.5%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	2.00	320	78
Ross Ohlendorf R 2016 · 4.93 FIP	33	SU	4.93	23.4%	10.7%	4.5%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	122	78
Brian Schlitter R 2021 · 4.70 FIP	35	SU	4.70	14.9%	9.1%	3.1%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	3.28	244	76
Jason Motte R 2017 · 5.16 FIP	35	SU	5.16	16.3%	11.4%	3.6%	.193	—	—	—	—	—	3.18	113	75
Radhames Liz R 2018 · 4.45 FIP	34	SU	4.45	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.343	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	110	75
Tom Wilhelmsen R 2017 · 5.42 FIP	33	SU	5.42	14.3%	10.4%	4.0%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.07	148	74
Ryan Madson R 2016 · 3.93 FIP	35	SU	3.93	18.1%	6.3%	2.9%	.284	2.40	27.2%	22.6%	112	-1.53	1.42	240	71
Jim Johnson R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	35	SU	4.48	16.8%	7.8%	3.3%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	2.56	251	70
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	70
Jean Machi R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	35	SU	4.12	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	186	70
Josh Lueke R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	34	SU	4.11	20.4%	6.4%	3.5%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	107	69
Dustin McGowan R 2017 · 4.58 FIP	35	SU	4.58	19.4%	6.7%	4.2%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	208	69

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.5	46	20.6%	13.8%	1.17	5.04
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99