Matt Carasiti
P
Gwinnett Stripers
Age 35
RHP
6'2" / 205 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 48 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134125vR 116
ERA5.01
FIP5.10
K%21.7%
BB%15.0%
K-BB%6.7%
ROS IP49
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 48 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
CT+1.0 (18%)
SI (33%)
FB-2.5 (51%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | A+ | Modesto Nuts | 49 | 0 | 57 | 246 | 57 | 21 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 17.8% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 2.3% | 3.02 | 4.12 | — |
| 2015 | 24 | A+ | Modesto Nuts | 49 | 0 | 57 | 246 | 57 | 21 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 23.2% | 8.5% | 14.6% | 1.2% | 3.02 | 2.89 | — |
| 2016 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 63 | 0 | 62 | 258 | 65 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 7.6% | 14.7% | 2.5% | 3.79 | 3.55 | +0.7 |
| 2016 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 63 | 0 | 62 | 258 | 65 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.2% | 7.4% | 17.8% | 2.3% | 3.79 | 3.18 | +1.0 |
| 2017 | 26 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 46 | 0 | 50 | 217 | 68 | 23 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.6% | 11.1% | 16.4% | 1.3% | 3.26 | 2.88 | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 46 | 0 | 50 | 217 | 68 | 23 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 31.3% | 10.6% | 20.7% | 0.9% | 3.26 | 2.27 | — |
| 2019 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 5 | 53 | 232 | 50 | 23 | 6 | 12% | 1.3 | 18.6% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 2.1% | 3.74 | 3.96 | +0.4 |
| 2019 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 5 | 53 | 232 | 50 | 23 | 6 | 12% | 1.3 | 21.6% | 9.9% | 11.6% | 2.6% | 3.74 | 3.99 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 31 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 23 | 0 | 22 | 110 | 28 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 22.4% | 11.5% | 10.9% | 4.1% | 8.31 | 4.91 | — |
| 2022 | 31 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 23 | 0 | 22 | 110 | 28 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 25.5% | 10.9% | 14.5% | 3.6% | 8.31 | 4.58 | — |
| 2023 | 32 | MIX | 3 levels | 43 | 0 | 53 | 238 | 46 | 23 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 17.0% | 9.8% | 7.1% | 1.4% | 4.73 | 3.70 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 32 | MIX | 3 levels | 43 | 0 | 53 | 238 | 46 | 23 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 19.3% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 1.7% | 4.73 | 3.64 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 0 | 43 | 201 | 52 | 28 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.1% | 16.6% | 8.4% | 2.2% | 6.07 | 4.31 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 0 | 43 | 201 | 52 | 28 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.9% | 13.9% | 11.9% | 2.5% | 6.07 | 4.15 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | MLB | COL | 46 | 0 | 49 | 205 | 44 | 31 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.7% | 15.0% | 6.7% | 2.8% | 5.01 | 5.10 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | COL | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 38 | 27 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.8% | 15.0% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 5.21 | 5.39 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | COL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 20.8% | 15.0% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 5.21 | 5.39 | — |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 53 | 5 | 59 | 281 | 50 | 30 | 8 | 9% | 1.1 | 17.9% | 10.8% | 7.2% | 2.9% | 7.39 | 4.53 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 182 | 17 | 200 | 956 | 170 | 102 | 27 | 9% | 1.1 | 17.9% | 10.8% | 7.2% | 2.9% | 7.39 | 4.53 | +2.0 | ||
| Career | — | 304 | 5 | 339 | 1502 | 320 | 160 | 32 | 2% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 2.1% | 4.30 | 3.83 | +6.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 179 | 3 | 200 | 886 | 189 | 95 | 19 | 2% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 2.1% | 4.30 | 3.83 | +3.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Matt Carasiti (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.10 | 21.7% | 15.0% | 2.8% | — | 5.39 | 20.8% | 5.8% | 43 | +0.29 | — | — | — |
| Carlos Fisher R 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.00 | 18.1% | 12.9% | 1.4% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.56 | 147 | 83 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2025 · 5.83 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.83 | 17.9% | 14.2% | 4.5% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.37 | 170 | 81 |
| Zack Segovia R 2027 · 4.36 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.36 | 17.6% | 13.6% | 1.9% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 144 | 79 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2025 · 3.99 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 11.3% | 1.8% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 104 | 78 |
| Mark Lowe R 2025 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.37 | 153 | 78 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2029 · 4.26 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.26 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .272 | 3.34 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.92 | 2.67 | 295 | 77 |
| Manny Acosta R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 77 |
| Wade Davis R 2026 · 5.15 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.15 | 20.0% | 10.0% | 4.5% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.00 | 320 | 76 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2027 · 4.09 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.09 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .267 | 6.61 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.52 | 4.09 | 145 | 76 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2024 · 4.99 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.99 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 122 | 75 |
| Radhames Liz R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.31 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 2.3% | .343 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.77 | 110 | 74 |
| Jason Motte R 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.16 | 16.3% | 11.4% | 3.6% | .193 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 113 | 73 |
| Brian Schlitter R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.76 | 14.9% | 9.1% | 3.2% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.20 | 244 | 72 |
| Tom Wilhelmsen R 2024 · 5.46 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.46 | 14.3% | 10.4% | 4.1% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.09 | 148 | 72 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.58 | 16.8% | 7.8% | 3.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 251 | 70 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2024 · 4.24 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.24 | 20.5% | 11.5% | 2.6% | .412 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 137 | 68 |
| Spencer Patton R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.44 | 19.2% | 11.0% | 2.9% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.74 | 239 | 68 |
| Jared Hughes R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.39 | 19.3% | 11.0% | 2.8% | .274 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.02 | 358 | 67 |
| Mark Serrano R 2024 · 5.21 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.21 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 5.1% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 120 | 67 |
| Greg Holland R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.68 | 21.8% | 9.9% | 4.0% | .255 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.97 | 268 | 66 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 46 | 21.3% | 15.0% | 1.17 | 5.10 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |