Austin Smith — OGILVIE

Austin Smith P Hartford Yard Goats

Age 27 RHP 6'3" / 210 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 17 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 117

ERA5.29

FIP5.29

K%18.1%

BB%13.7%

K-BB%4.4%

ROS IP17

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 17 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	6	0	8	34	10	5	1	0%	1.3	29.4%	14.7%	14.7%	2.9%	4.50	4.09	—
2021	22	A RAW	Augusta GreenJackets	6	0	8	34	10	5	1	0%	1.3	29.4%	14.7%	14.7%	2.9%	4.50	4.10	—
2022	23	A+ MLE	Rome Braves	45	0	49	207	61	18	4	0%	1.1	22.7%	10.0%	12.7%	2.6%	4.62	3.88	—
2022	23	A+ RAW	Rome Braves	45	0	49	207	61	18	4	0%	1.1	29.5%	8.7%	20.8%	1.9%	4.62	2.77	—
2023	24	AA MLE	Mississippi Braves	1	0	1	3	0	1	0	0%	0.7	0.0%	33.3%	-33.3%	0.0%	13.50	7.32	—
2023	24	AA MLE	Mississippi Braves	1	0	1	3	0	1	0	0%	0.7	0.0%	33.3%	-33.3%	0.0%	13.50	7.32	—
2023	24	AA RAW	Mississippi Braves	1	0	1	3	0	1	0	0%	0.7	0.0%	33.3%	-33.3%	0.0%	13.50	7.60	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	1	26	135	26	24	2	4%	1.0	13.7%	23.5%	-9.8%	3.0%	6.92	6.56	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	1	26	135	26	24	2	4%	1.0	13.7%	23.5%	-9.8%	3.0%	6.92	6.56	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	1	26	135	26	24	2	4%	1.0	19.3%	17.8%	1.5%	1.5%	6.92	4.87	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	47	194	46	21	5	0%	1.1	17.5%	12.2%	5.2%	2.5%	3.42	4.54	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	47	194	46	21	5	0%	1.1	17.5%	12.2%	5.2%	2.5%	3.42	4.54	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	47	194	46	21	5	0%	1.1	23.7%	10.8%	12.9%	2.6%	3.42	3.86	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	38	0	48	218	52	37	3	0%	1.3	19.3%	18.7%	0.7%	1.7%	3.75	4.74	—
YTD	27	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	38	0	48	218	52	37	3	0%	1.3	19.3%	18.7%	0.7%	1.7%	3.75	4.74	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AA RAW	COL	38	0	48	218	52	37	3	0%	1.3	23.9%	17.0%	6.9%	1.4%	3.75	3.99	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	COL	19	0	20	84	16	11	3	0%	1.1	18.5%	13.4%	5.1%	3.0%	5.24	5.27	-0.2
2027	28	MLB CTX	COL	8	0	8	34	6	5	1	0%	1.0	18.5%	13.4%	5.1%	3.0%	5.24	5.27	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	8	32	6	4	1	0%	1.1	18.5%	13.4%	5.1%	3.0%	5.24	4.89	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	160	106	27	0%	1.1	18.5%	13.4%	5.1%	3.0%	5.24	4.89	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		160	1	179	791	151	123	19	1%	1.1	19.1%	15.5%	3.6%	2.4%	4.43	4.76	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		179	1	200	885	169	137	21	1%	1.1	19.1%	15.5%	3.6%	2.4%	4.43	4.76	-1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Austin Smith (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.29	18.1%	13.7%	2.9%	—	5.27	18.5%	5.1%	20	-0.02	—	—	—
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	90
David Holman R 2017 · 5.53 FIP	27	SU	5.53	15.6%	12.7%	3.9%	.324	5.45	9.6%	0.5%	107	-0.08	5.28	129	88
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	86
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	85
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	85
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	84
Arcenio Leon R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	17.9%	12.5%	2.9%	.450	3.37	18.0%	9.1%	85	-1.36	3.00	115	83
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	83
Tanner Scheppers R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SU	4.37	17.7%	11.2%	2.5%	.263	4.86	15.7%	9.0%	48	+0.49	4.37	101	83
Michael Blazek R 2016 · 4.92 FIP	27	SU	4.92	17.9%	11.9%	3.3%	.336	4.43	17.5%	8.0%	124	-0.49	2.99	221	83
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	82
Ryan Cook R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	16.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.297	3.96	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.77	3.96	102	82
Tucker Healy R 2017 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	15.6%	11.5%	2.0%	.321	5.20	19.2%	8.7%	24	+0.87	2.82	174	82
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	82
Gregory Infante R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	28	SU	4.54	16.9%	15.7%	1.6%	.290	3.78	21.3%	12.7%	181	-0.76	2.97	230	82
Theo Denlinger R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	27	SU	4.21	19.8%	15.1%	1.6%	.266	4.23	15.3%	9.9%	41	+0.02	2.92	140	82
Ray Gaither R 2023 · 4.89 FIP	25	SU	4.89	18.1%	16.4%	2.3%	.278	4.19	17.7%	6.6%	90	-0.70	3.90	164	81
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	81
Adrian Garza R 2015 · 5.47 FIP	27	SU	5.47	14.9%	10.5%	4.2%	.360	4.17	13.1%	6.5%	84	-1.30	3.94	229	81
Nelson Gonzalez R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	27	SU	5.00	15.3%	13.7%	2.6%	.239	5.79	17.4%	6.7%	96	+0.79	3.42	258	81