Austin Smith
P
Hartford Yard Goats
Age 27
RHP
6'3" / 210 lbs
AA
2026 ROS PROJECTION34 act + 17 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126117vR 108
ERA4.73
FIP4.73
K%20.9%
BB%11.4%
K-BB%9.5%
ROS IP17
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 51 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 6 | 0 | 8 | 34 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 29.4% | 14.7% | 14.7% | 2.9% | 4.50 | 4.09 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 6 | 0 | 8 | 34 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 29.4% | 14.7% | 14.7% | 2.9% | 4.50 | 4.10 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Rome Braves | 45 | 0 | 49 | 207 | 61 | 18 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 12.7% | 2.8% | 4.62 | 4.00 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Rome Braves | 45 | 0 | 49 | 207 | 61 | 18 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.5% | 8.7% | 20.8% | 1.9% | 4.62 | 2.77 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Mississippi Braves | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.7 | 0.0% | 33.3% | -33.3% | 0.0% | 13.50 | 7.32 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Mississippi Braves | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.7 | 0.0% | 33.3% | -33.3% | 0.0% | 13.50 | 7.60 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 1 | 26 | 135 | 26 | 24 | 2 | 4% | 1.0 | 13.7% | 23.5% | -9.8% | 3.3% | 6.92 | 6.75 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 1 | 26 | 135 | 26 | 24 | 2 | 4% | 1.0 | 19.3% | 17.8% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 6.92 | 4.87 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 47 | 194 | 46 | 21 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.5% | 12.2% | 5.2% | 2.1% | 3.42 | 4.31 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 47 | 194 | 46 | 21 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.7% | 10.8% | 12.9% | 2.6% | 3.42 | 3.86 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | 26 | 0 | 34 | 158 | 37 | 29 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 19.0% | 20.2% | -1.2% | 1.5% | 3.74 | 4.89 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | COL | 17 | 0 | 17 | 73 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 9.5% | 2.9% | 4.73 | 4.73 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | COL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 20.9% | 11.4% | 9.5% | 2.9% | 4.73 | 4.73 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | COL | — | — | 51 | 231 | 52 | 37 | 4 | — | — | 22.6% | 16.1% | 6.5% | 1.8% | 4.08 | 4.84 | -0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | COL | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 20.9% | 11.4% | 9.5% | 2.9% | 4.73 | 4.35 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | COL | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 18 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.0% | 11.3% | 9.7% | 3.0% | 4.74 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | COL | 8 | 0 | 8 | 34 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.0% | 11.3% | 9.7% | 3.0% | 4.74 | 4.77 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 7 | 0 | 8 | 33 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.0% | 11.3% | 9.7% | 3.0% | 4.74 | 4.39 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 178 | 102 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.0% | 11.3% | 9.7% | 3.0% | 4.74 | 4.39 | +2.4 | ||
| Career | — | 148 | 1 | 164 | 731 | 139 | 114 | 18 | 1% | 1.1 | 19.1% | 15.6% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 4.49 | 4.80 | +1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 180 | 1 | 200 | 890 | 169 | 139 | 22 | 1% | 1.1 | 19.1% | 15.6% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 4.49 | 4.80 | +1.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Austin Smith (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.73 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 2.9% | — | 4.77 | 21.0% | 9.7% | 20 | +0.04 | — | — | — |
| Joe Colón J R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.04 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 113 | 87 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 84 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.51 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .355 | 4.54 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | +0.03 | 3.57 | 187 | 84 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2029 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 83 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2027 · 4.39 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.39 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.65 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.26 | 4.39 | 101 | 83 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 4.69 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.69 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .297 | 4.04 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.65 | 4.04 | 102 | 83 |
| Derek Eitel R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.32 | 18.1% | 13.9% | 1.8% | .338 | 4.21 | 19.7% | 5.0% | 113 | -0.11 | 3.85 | 138 | 83 |
| Rob Scahill R 2027 · 3.83 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.83 | 16.9% | 7.7% | 2.1% | .288 | 3.34 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 171 | -0.49 | 2.93 | 201 | 82 |
| Cole McDonald R 2026 · 5.38 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.38 | 21.1% | 13.8% | 4.2% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.72 | 153 | 82 |
| Michael Blazek R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.09 | 17.9% | 11.9% | 3.6% | .336 | 4.52 | 17.5% | 8.0% | 124 | -0.57 | 3.05 | 221 | 82 |
| Michael Dimock R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.24 | 18.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .339 | 3.34 | 23.5% | 12.8% | 29 | -0.90 | 3.31 | 166 | 82 |
| Armando Rivero R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.39 | 18.7% | 13.5% | 2.1% | .256 | 2.81 | 32.9% | 19.8% | 68 | -1.58 | 2.81 | 125 | 82 |
| David Holman R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.25 | 15.6% | 12.7% | 3.4% | .324 | 5.21 | 9.6% | 0.5% | 107 | -0.04 | 5.04 | 129 | 81 |
| Luis Mateo R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.33 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.4% | .309 | 5.34 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +1.01 | 3.43 | 160 | 81 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2028 · 4.07 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.07 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .241 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.01 | 3.28 | 149 | 81 |
| Matt Wivinis R 2025 · 3.87 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.87 | 19.5% | 12.2% | 1.6% | .262 | 5.90 | 14.5% | 6.2% | 17 | +2.03 | 1.61 | 124 | 81 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2027 · 4.44 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.44 | 17.9% | 12.5% | 2.3% | .450 | 3.38 | 18.0% | 9.1% | 85 | -1.06 | 3.03 | 115 | 80 |
| Grant Sides R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.89 | 22.4% | 11.9% | 2.1% | .247 | 3.24 | 21.7% | 11.9% | 47 | -0.65 | 3.24 | 159 | 80 |
| J.J. Hoover R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.26 | 19.7% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .211 | 4.51 | 24.6% | 14.3% | 98 | +0.25 | 4.26 | 258 | 80 |
| Al Alburquerque R 2028 · 3.58 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.58 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.18 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 114 | -0.40 | 2.76 | 228 | 80 |