Austin Smith
P
Hartford Yard Goats
+0.1
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'3" / 210 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.77
FIP4.77
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.9%
BB%11.4%
K-BB%9.5%
IP25
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 6 | 0 | 8 | 34 | 10 | 5 | 1 | — | — | — | 4.50 | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Rome Braves | 45 | 0 | 49 | 207 | 61 | 18 | 4 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.6% | 4.62 | 3.85 | +0.6 |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Mississippi Braves | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 13.50 | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Mississippi Braves | 26 | 1 | 26 | 135 | 26 | 24 | 2 | 13.7% | 23.5% | 2.9% | 6.92 | 6.51 | -0.5 |
| 2025 | 26 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | 44 | 0 | 47 | 194 | 46 | 21 | 5 | 17.5% | 12.2% | 2.6% | 3.42 | 4.62 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | 4 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 6 | 7 | 1 | — | — | — | 4.91 | — | — |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | COL | 25 | — | 25 | 105 | 22 | 12 | 3 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 2.9% | 4.77 | 4.77 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | COL | — | — | 28 | 128 | 28 | 19 | 4 | 21.8% | 14.8% | 3.2% | 4.79 | 4.16 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | COL | 24 | — | 24 | 103 | 22 | 12 | 3 | 21.1% | 11.2% | 3.0% | 4.74 | 4.75 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 126 | 1 | 134 | 596 | 115 | 89 | 16 | 19.3% | 15.0% | 2.7% | 4.69 | 4.86 | +0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 188 | 1 | 200 | 887 | 171 | 133 | 24 | 19.3% | 15.0% | 2.7% | 4.69 | 4.86 | +1.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Austin Smith (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.77 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 2.9% | — | 4.75 | 21.1% | 9.9% | 24 | -0.02 | — | — | — |
| Joe Colón J R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.5% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 113 | 89 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2027 · 4.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.85 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.1% | .265 | 3.87 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.98 | 3.45 | 315 | 87 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.57 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.9% | .355 | 4.49 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | -0.08 | 3.70 | 187 | 85 |
| Cole McDonald R 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.16 | 21.1% | 13.8% | 3.8% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.84 | 153 | 85 |
| Antonio Guzman R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.60 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 1.2% | .328 | 3.47 | 20.6% | 11.3% | 170 | -0.13 | 3.16 | 254 | 84 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2029 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 84 |
| Michael Blazek R 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.97 | 17.9% | 11.9% | 3.4% | .336 | 4.43 | 17.5% | 8.0% | 124 | -0.54 | 3.06 | 221 | 83 |
| Derek Eitel R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.34 | 18.1% | 13.9% | 1.8% | .338 | 4.29 | 19.7% | 5.0% | 113 | -0.05 | 4.00 | 138 | 83 |
| Michael Dimock R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.12 | 18.9% | 7.8% | 3.0% | .339 | 3.39 | 23.5% | 12.8% | 29 | -0.73 | 3.11 | 166 | 83 |
| Rob Scahill R 2027 · 3.75 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.75 | 16.9% | 7.7% | 2.0% | .288 | 3.35 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 171 | -0.40 | 3.08 | 201 | 82 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.00 | 22.2% | 11.4% | 4.2% | .256 | 4.51 | 23.3% | 9.7% | 39 | -0.49 | 2.65 | 315 | 81 |
| Luis Mateo R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.58 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.8% | .309 | 5.45 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +0.87 | 3.47 | 160 | 81 |
| Guido Knudson R 2025 · 4.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.70 | 17.5% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .235 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 106 | 81 |
| David Holman R 2026 · 5.48 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.48 | 15.6% | 12.7% | 3.8% | .324 | 5.48 | 9.6% | 0.5% | 107 | -0.00 | 5.37 | 129 | 81 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2027 · 4.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.85 | 17.9% | 12.5% | 3.1% | .450 | 3.38 | 18.0% | 9.1% | 85 | -1.47 | 3.01 | 115 | 81 |
| Matt Wivinis R 2025 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.83 | 19.5% | 12.2% | 1.5% | .262 | 5.90 | 14.5% | 6.2% | 17 | +2.07 | 1.61 | 124 | 81 |
| Mason Vinyard R 2025 · 4.41 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.41 | 21.8% | 14.5% | 2.4% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.60 | 154 | 81 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2028 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.6% | .241 | 3.99 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.34 | 3.47 | 149 | 81 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.38 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.82 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.44 | 4.38 | 101 | 81 |
| Jonathan Aro R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.96 | 17.3% | 10.9% | 1.7% | .280 | 3.30 | 12.7% | 9.3% | 64 | -0.66 | 2.57 | 323 | 81 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.