Ronny Lopez — OGILVIE

Ronny Lopez P ACL Cubs

+0.1 WAR

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 185 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.3 · 2028

ERA4.78

FIP4.78

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%20.3%

BB%11.7%

K-BB%8.6%

IP47

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.3peak

2028

K†5055

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2023	20	ROK	DSL Cubs Red	14	4	36	158	35	26	2	15.1%	20.6%	1.6%	5.75	5.31	-0.1
2024	21	ROK	DSL Cubs Blue	10	4	25	107	34	20	0	21.6%	23.4%	0.0%	1.78	4.23	+0.2
2025	22	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	16	13	59	283	42	41	3	10.3%	17.6%	1.7%	6.83	5.41	-0.3
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	MLB	CHC	47	—	47	198	40	23	6	20.3%	11.7%	2.8%	4.78	4.78	+0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	24	MLB	CHC	48	—	48	203	43	22	6	21.3%	10.7%	2.8%	4.64	4.57	+0.2
2028	25	MLB	CHC	49	—	49	205	45	21	6	21.8%	10.1%	2.8%	4.52	4.45	+0.3
2029	26	MLB	CHC	49	—	49	205	45	21	6	22.1%	10.0%	2.8%	4.46	4.42	+0.3
2030	27	MLB	CHC	48	—	48	204	45	20	6	22.1%	10.0%	2.8%	4.44	4.43	+0.3
2031	28	MLB	CHC	48	—	48	201	44	20	6	22.1%	10.1%	2.9%	4.45	4.45	+0.3
2032	29	MLB	CHC	46	—	46	196	43	20	6	22.0%	10.1%	2.9%	4.48	4.50	+0.2
2033	30	MLB	CHC	45	—	45	190	41	19	6	21.8%	10.2%	3.0%	4.53	4.56	+0.2
2034	31	MLB	CHC	43	—	43	183	39	19	6	21.5%	10.4%	3.0%	4.59	4.64	+0.2
2035	32	MLB	CHC	42	—	42	176	37	19	5	21.2%	10.5%	3.1%	4.67	4.72	+0.1
2036	33	MLB	CHC	40	—	40	168	35	18	5	20.9%	10.7%	3.2%	4.76	4.82	+0.1
2037	34	MLB	CHC	38	—	38	160	33	17	5	20.6%	10.9%	3.3%	4.86	4.93	+0.0
2038	35	MLB	CHC	36	—	36	150	30	17	5	20.2%	11.1%	3.4%	4.98	5.05	-0.0
2039	36	MLB	CHC	33	—	33	141	28	16	5	19.8%	11.4%	3.5%	5.10	5.19	-0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			40	21	121	548	76	107	7	13.9%	19.6%	1.4%	5.44	5.15	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—			66	35	200	908	126	177	12	13.9%	19.6%	1.4%	5.44	5.15	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ronny Lopez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.78	20.3%	11.7%	2.8%	—	4.48	21.7%	11.5%	145	-0.30	—	—	—
Ryan Atkinson R 2026 · 4.58 FIP	23	SU	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.15	338	93
Heath Holder R 2026 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.92	367	92
Harrison Cohen R 2027 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	3.00	24.2%	12.6%	70	-1.56	2.12	117	91
Jayson McKinley R 2026 · 4.39 FIP	23	SU	4.39	17.5%	11.4%	2.4%	.308	3.59	20.4%	11.3%	134	-0.80	2.36	173	91
TJ Shook R 2026 · 4.90 FIP	23	SU	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.99	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.09	3.35	394	91
Chad Patrick R 2026 · 3.82 FIP	23	SU	3.82	20.3%	9.9%	2.1%	.315	4.23	22.3%	13.8%	422	+0.41	3.72	483	91
Davison Palermo R 2026 · 4.30 FIP	23	SU	4.30	19.0%	12.4%	2.3%	.246	4.95	18.4%	7.1%	108	+0.65	4.30	151	91
Ray Gaither R 2027 · 4.86 FIP	24	SU	4.86	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.51	18.6%	4.7%	123	-0.35	4.05	164	90
Kyle Marman R 2025 · 3.97 FIP	22	SU	3.97	22.2%	12.8%	2.0%	.270	5.16	22.5%	8.4%	71	+1.19	3.97	117	90
Owen Holt R 2026 · 3.81 FIP	23	SU	3.81	20.7%	10.2%	2.1%	.258	4.53	18.7%	6.4%	107	+0.72	3.81	145	90
Hunter Dula R 2026 · 3.90 FIP	23	SU	3.90	22.0%	12.3%	2.0%	.340	4.56	20.0%	8.9%	91	+0.66	3.90	132	90
Sean Isaac R 2026 · 4.27 FIP	23	SU	4.27	19.5%	12.3%	2.3%	.342	3.77	25.0%	10.7%	128	-0.50	3.27	155	90
Cole Gordon R 2026 · 4.10 FIP	23	SU	4.10	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.09	4.10	112	89
Hayden Snelsire R 2026 · 5.15 FIP	23	SU	5.15	18.9%	13.8%	3.5%	.272	3.84	18.2%	11.8%	79	-1.31	3.84	122	89
Austin Smith R 2026 · 3.85 FIP	23	SU	3.85	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.19	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.34	3.85	100	89
Grayson Thurman R 2027 · 4.71 FIP	24	SU	4.71	19.5%	14.1%	2.7%	.319	4.82	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.11	4.56	132	89
Colin Fields R 2026 · 3.64 FIP	23	SU	3.64	20.5%	10.3%	1.8%	.246	3.81	21.2%	12.7%	169	+0.17	2.90	215	88
Easton Sikorski R 2026 · 4.84 FIP	23	SU	4.84	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.24	18.1%	6.2%	130	-0.60	4.16	159	88
Vince Arobio R 2026 · 4.47 FIP	23	SU	4.47	20.5%	12.0%	2.9%	.365	3.69	24.1%	16.2%	55	-0.78	3.69	118	88
Ricardo Velez R 2027 · 4.43 FIP	24	SU	4.43	22.4%	10.9%	3.3%	.261	3.88	20.1%	9.3%	114	-0.55	3.82	142	88

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.5M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+0.2	$1.0M	+$0.0M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+0.2	$1.0M	+$0.0M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$0.4M	+0.2	$1M	+$0.6M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$0.4M	+0.1	$0.5M	+$0.1M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$5M	+$1M