Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | DSL TEX Blue | 4 | 0 | 8 | 34 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 1.9 | 26.5% | 14.7% | 11.8% | 0.0% | 1.17 | 2.73 | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | DSL TEX Blue | 4 | 0 | 8 | 34 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 1.9 | 26.5% | 14.7% | 11.8% | 0.0% | 1.17 | 2.71 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | ACL Rangers | 11 | 4 | 20 | 113 | 31 | 27 | 3 | 36% | 1.8 | 18.7% | 29.9% | -11.2% | 3.0% | 8.10 | 6.94 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | ACL Rangers | 11 | 4 | 20 | 113 | 31 | 27 | 3 | 36% | 1.8 | 27.4% | 23.9% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 8.10 | 6.00 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 2 | 15 | 72 | 19 | 13 | 2 | 29% | 2.2 | 26.4% | 18.1% | 8.3% | 2.8% | 6.46 | 4.68 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 2 | 15 | 72 | 19 | 13 | 2 | 29% | 2.2 | 26.4% | 18.1% | 8.3% | 2.8% | 6.46 | 4.86 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A | Hickory Crawdads | 22 | 9 | 61 | 288 | 67 | 43 | 2 | 41% | 2.8 | 17.2% | 17.6% | -0.4% | 0.8% | 6.16 | 4.34 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A | Hickory Crawdads | 22 | 9 | 61 | 288 | 67 | 43 | 2 | 41% | 2.8 | 23.3% | 14.9% | 8.3% | 0.7% | 6.16 | 3.44 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Hub City Spartanburgers | 19 | 3 | 35 | 164 | 34 | 18 | 7 | 16% | 1.9 | 16.1% | 12.4% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 7.13 | 6.13 | -0.7 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | TEX | 50 | 0 | 52 | 222 | 37 | 41 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.9% | 18.5% | -1.7% | 2.7% | 5.88 | 5.88 | -0.8 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 16.9% | 18.5% | -1.7% | 2.7% | 5.88 | 5.88 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 88 | 386 | 71 | 59 | 13 | — | — | 18.5% | 15.3% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 6.38 | 5.98 | -0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | TEX | 52 | 0 | 54 | 230 | 42 | 37 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.3% | 16.2% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 5.56 | 5.45 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | TEX | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 45 | 35 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.3% | 14.7% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 5.30 | 5.18 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | TEX | 54 | 0 | 57 | 239 | 47 | 33 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.8% | 13.8% | 6.1% | 2.7% | 5.12 | 5.02 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | TEX | 26 | 0 | 27 | 114 | 21 | 18 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.3% | 16.2% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 5.56 | 5.45 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | TEX | 37 | 0 | 39 | 165 | 32 | 24 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.3% | 14.7% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 5.30 | 5.18 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | TEX | 44 | 0 | 46 | 194 | 39 | 27 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.8% | 13.8% | 6.1% | 2.7% | 5.12 | 5.02 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 106 | 0 | 112 | 472 | 91 | 69 | 13 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.3% | 14.7% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 5.29 | 4.80 | +0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 163 | 124 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.3% | 14.7% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 5.29 | 4.80 | +1.4 | ||
| Career | — | 63 | 18 | 140 | 671 | 125 | 123 | 16 | 29% | 2.2 | 18.6% | 18.3% | 0.3% | 2.4% | 6.44 | 5.17 | +0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 90 | 26 | 200 | 961 | 179 | 176 | 23 | 29% | 2.2 | 18.6% | 18.3% | 0.3% | 2.4% | 6.44 | 5.17 | +0.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Aneudis Mejia (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.88 | 16.9% | 18.5% | 2.7% | — | 5.21 | 19.2% | 4.3% | 167 | -0.67 | — | — | — |
| Blake Quinn R 2027 · 5.32 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.32 | 16.9% | 15.3% | 3.1% | .328 | 4.28 | 17.1% | 3.3% | 48 | -1.04 | 4.28 | 122 | 86 |
| Griffin Kilander R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.83 | 15.5% | 16.2% | 1.8% | .264 | 4.24 | 23.3% | 6.3% | 50 | -0.59 | 4.24 | 115 | 83 |
| Yunior Montero R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.82 | 16.9% | 14.1% | 2.5% | .276 | 4.59 | 21.5% | 6.2% | 91 | -0.23 | 3.60 | 127 | 82 |
| Ryan Cardona R 2026 · 5.30 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.30 | 20.9% | 17.7% | 3.1% | .274 | 4.20 | 18.5% | 4.3% | 292 | -1.10 | 3.46 | 367 | 82 |
| Kyle Wilcox R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.93 | 16.2% | 22.0% | 0.8% | .330 | 4.51 | 27.1% | 10.4% | 140 | -0.42 | 2.77 | 310 | 82 |
| Jordan Brink R 2027 · 5.96 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.96 | 18.3% | 19.2% | 3.6% | .233 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.10 | 132 | 82 |
| Justin Ferrell R 2026 · 5.48 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.48 | 14.9% | 14.0% | 3.4% | .261 | 4.31 | 20.4% | 9.1% | 173 | -1.17 | 3.80 | 300 | 81 |
| Jake Eddington R 2027 · 4.98 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.98 | 18.8% | 24.1% | 0.7% | .316 | 5.09 | 15.8% | -4.0% | 85 | +0.11 | 4.88 | 114 | 80 |
| Kyle Crick R 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.05 | 19.6% | 23.7% | 1.1% | .278 | 3.85 | 19.7% | 7.7% | 231 | -1.20 | 2.59 | 383 | 80 |
| Cole Aker R 2026 · 5.51 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.51 | 19.5% | 20.6% | 2.6% | .239 | 6.10 | 12.0% | -9.9% | 28 | +0.59 | 3.60 | 147 | 80 |
| Jhonny Polanco R 2027 · 4.76 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.76 | 18.9% | 14.2% | 2.7% | .283 | 3.92 | 21.3% | 5.7% | 48 | -0.84 | 3.92 | 116 | 80 |
| Josh White R 2026 · 5.45 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.45 | 17.7% | 13.9% | 3.8% | .244 | 3.02 | 28.9% | 17.7% | 167 | -2.43 | 1.95 | 232 | 80 |
| Keegan Collett R 2025 · 5.05 FIP | 21 | SW | 5.05 | 21.9% | 24.6% | 1.2% | .321 | 4.97 | 29.1% | 9.0% | 84 | -0.08 | 3.99 | 184 | 80 |
| Ted Stuka R 2028 · 5.78 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.78 | 12.4% | 23.4% | 1.4% | .262 | 6.34 | 15.9% | -13.1% | 41 | +0.56 | 5.51 | 105 | 79 |
| Kelvin Vasquez R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.80 | 14.8% | 13.8% | 2.2% | .248 | 5.43 | 15.0% | -3.0% | 103 | +0.63 | 4.80 | 180 | 79 |
| Cole Percival R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 22 | SU | 5.10 | 16.5% | 14.9% | 2.8% | .243 | 4.62 | 16.6% | 3.7% | 218 | -0.48 | 3.59 | 327 | 79 |
| Fabian Anguamea R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.91 | 16.6% | 15.2% | 2.3% | .295 | 4.45 | 15.8% | 1.8% | 96 | -0.46 | 3.94 | 164 | 78 |
| Edwardo Melendez R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.79 | 20.6% | 15.9% | 2.6% | .298 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 139 | 78 |
| Drew Conover R 2027 · 6.30 FIP | 23 | SW | 6.30 | 15.6% | 29.8% | 1.4% | .272 | 5.34 | 11.7% | -3.6% | 96 | -0.96 | 4.52 | 135 | 78 |
| Eury Rosado R 2026 · 6.29 FIP | 22 | SW | 6.29 | 17.8% | 18.2% | 4.4% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 109 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 55 | 18.6% | 15.7% | 1.04 | 5.46 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |