Jared Kelley — OGILVIE

Jared Kelley P Birmingham Barons

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 230 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 25 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA5.26

FIP5.26

K%19.1%

BB%14.9%

K-BB%4.1%

ROS IP26

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 25 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	12	24	126	27	26	3	100%	2.0	16.5%	23.2%	-6.7%	1.3%	7.61	5.33	—
2021	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	12	24	126	27	26	3	100%	2.0	21.4%	20.6%	0.8%	2.4%	7.61	5.76	—
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	77	328	71	47	8	100%	3.7	15.6%	16.9%	-1.3%	2.4%	3.52	5.22	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	77	328	71	47	8	100%	3.7	21.6%	14.3%	7.3%	2.4%	3.52	4.44	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	5	65	312	75	54	5	18%	2.3	18.9%	19.4%	-0.6%	1.9%	7.48	5.03	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	5	65	312	75	54	5	18%	2.3	18.9%	19.4%	-0.6%	1.9%	7.48	5.03	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	5	65	312	75	54	5	18%	2.3	24.0%	17.3%	6.7%	1.6%	7.48	4.28	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	0	52	242	43	35	3	0%	1.7	14.3%	16.3%	-2.0%	2.3%	4.47	5.19	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	0	52	242	43	35	3	0%	1.7	14.3%	16.3%	-2.0%	2.3%	4.47	5.19	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	0	52	242	43	35	3	0%	1.7	17.8%	14.5%	3.3%	1.2%	4.47	4.21	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	48	202	53	23	2	0%	1.3	19.7%	14.3%	5.3%	1.8%	3.19	4.25	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	48	202	53	23	2	0%	1.3	19.7%	14.3%	5.3%	1.8%	3.19	4.25	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	0	48	202	53	23	2	0%	1.3	26.2%	11.4%	14.9%	1.0%	3.19	2.87	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	15	0	21	107	22	17	3	0%	1.4	14.0%	17.7%	-3.7%	2.8%	9.58	5.68	—
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	15	0	21	107	22	17	3	0%	1.4	14.0%	17.7%	-3.7%	2.8%	9.58	5.68	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AA RAW	CWS	12	0	16	87	15	14	2	0%	1.3	17.2%	16.1%	1.1%	2.3%	12.06	4.94	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	CWS	3	0	5	20	7	3	1	0%	1.7	35.0%	15.0%	20.0%	5.0%	1.80	4.79	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	CWS	45	0	48	201	41	27	6	0%	1.1	20.1%	13.2%	7.0%	2.7%	5.04	4.95	-0.2
2028	26	MLB MLE	CWS	45	0	48	201	42	26	6	0%	1.1	20.7%	12.8%	7.9%	2.8%	4.92	4.87	-0.2
2027	25	MLB CTX	CWS	20	0	21	89	18	12	2	0%	1.1	20.1%	13.2%	7.0%	2.7%	5.04	4.95	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	CWS	30	0	32	135	28	17	4	0%	1.1	20.7%	12.8%	7.9%	2.8%	4.92	4.87	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		50	0	53	223	46	29	6	0%	1.1	20.5%	13.0%	7.5%	2.7%	4.97	4.52	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	174	110	23	0%	1.1	20.5%	13.0%	7.5%	2.7%	4.97	4.52	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		144	38	286	1317	220	233	27	26%	2.0	16.7%	17.7%	-0.9%	2.1%	5.31	5.07	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		101	27	200	920	154	162	19	26%	2.0	16.7%	17.7%	-0.9%	2.1%	5.31	5.07	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jared Kelley (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.26	19.1%	14.9%	2.7%	—	4.91	20.4%	7.4%	95	-0.35	—	—	—
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	85
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.42	16.0%	3.7%	182	-0.14	3.46	237	84
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.36	19.2%	10.6%	193	+0.12	3.92	257	83
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	83
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.80	21.5%	10.0%	115	-0.58	4.73	183	83
Marc Brakeman R 2018 · 4.67 FIP	24	SU	4.67	18.3%	13.7%	2.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	156	82
Cayne Ueckert R 2019 · 4.26 FIP	23	SU	4.26	17.5%	14.9%	1.4%	.306	5.92	22.7%	5.0%	78	+1.66	3.95	205	82
Tanner Duncan R 2019 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	17.5%	14.8%	3.4%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.28	123	82
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	82
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	82
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	82
Jordan Brink R 2016 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	18.3%	19.2%	3.6%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	132	81
Jake Gilbert R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	24	SU	4.14	22.1%	15.2%	1.8%	.314	4.65	18.2%	2.0%	53	+0.51	4.14	103	81
Jacob Webb R 2023 · 4.55 FIP	24	SU	4.55	19.8%	15.3%	2.1%	.283	4.56	18.8%	8.2%	155	+0.01	3.33	268	81
Alaska Abney R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.8%	13.8%	3.0%	.301	3.89	17.4%	7.9%	104	-1.03	3.38	207	81
Josh White R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	22	SW	5.12	17.7%	13.9%	3.2%	.244	3.19	27.2%	16.7%	182	-1.93	1.90	247	81
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	80
Dylan Spacke R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	24	SU	5.24	16.1%	13.9%	3.2%	.297	4.79	13.6%	0.2%	52	-0.45	2.08	205	80
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	80
Trent Fennell R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	23	SW	4.08	20.6%	12.2%	2.1%	.328	5.52	19.4%	3.5%	107	+1.44	4.08	163	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.6	40	20.1%	13.4%	1.06	5.04
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91