Jared Kelley
P
Birmingham Barons
Age 24
RHP
6'3" / 230 lbs
AA
2026 ROS PROJECTION19 act + 26 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128119vR 110
ERA4.84
FIP4.84
K%21.0%
BB%12.3%
K-BB%8.7%
ROS IP26
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 44 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 12 | 24 | 126 | 27 | 26 | 3 | 100% | 2.0 | 16.5% | 23.2% | -6.7% | 1.4% | 7.61 | 5.39 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 12 | 24 | 126 | 27 | 26 | 3 | 100% | 2.0 | 21.4% | 20.6% | 0.8% | 2.4% | 7.61 | 5.76 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 21 | 77 | 328 | 71 | 47 | 8 | 100% | 3.7 | 15.6% | 16.9% | -1.3% | 2.1% | 3.52 | 5.06 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 21 | 77 | 328 | 71 | 47 | 8 | 100% | 3.7 | 21.6% | 14.3% | 7.3% | 2.4% | 3.52 | 4.44 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 5 | 65 | 312 | 75 | 54 | 5 | 18% | 2.3 | 18.9% | 19.4% | -0.6% | 1.9% | 7.48 | 5.01 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 5 | 65 | 312 | 75 | 54 | 5 | 18% | 2.3 | 24.0% | 17.3% | 6.7% | 1.6% | 7.48 | 4.28 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 0 | 52 | 242 | 43 | 35 | 3 | 0% | 1.7 | 14.3% | 16.3% | -2.0% | 2.9% | 4.47 | 5.55 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 0 | 52 | 242 | 43 | 35 | 3 | 0% | 1.7 | 17.8% | 14.5% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 4.47 | 4.21 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 0 | 48 | 202 | 53 | 23 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 19.7% | 14.3% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 3.19 | 4.63 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 0 | 48 | 202 | 53 | 23 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 26.2% | 11.4% | 14.9% | 1.0% | 3.19 | 2.87 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 13 | 0 | 19 | 96 | 21 | 16 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 14.9% | 18.8% | -3.9% | 3.2% | 9.16 | 5.96 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | CWS | 25 | 0 | 26 | 109 | 23 | 13 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.0% | 12.3% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 4.84 | 4.84 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | CWS | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.0% | 12.3% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 4.84 | 4.84 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 44 | 205 | 44 | 29 | 6 | — | — | 21.4% | 14.3% | 7.1% | 3.0% | 6.65 | 5.31 | -0.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 21.0% | 12.3% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 4.84 | 4.46 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | CWS | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 24 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.6% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 2.9% | 4.70 | 4.65 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | CWS | 10 | 0 | 11 | 46 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 2.9% | 4.70 | 4.65 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 11 | 0 | 12 | 51 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 11.3% | 10.3% | 2.9% | 4.71 | 4.28 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 184 | 100 | 17 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 11.3% | 10.3% | 2.9% | 4.71 | 4.28 | +2.6 | ||
| Career | — | 142 | 38 | 284 | 1306 | 220 | 232 | 30 | 27% | 2.0 | 16.8% | 17.7% | -0.9% | 2.3% | 5.25 | 5.17 | +0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 100 | 27 | 200 | 919 | 154 | 163 | 21 | 27% | 2.0 | 16.8% | 17.7% | -0.9% | 2.3% | 5.25 | 5.17 | +0.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jared Kelley (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.84 | 21.0% | 12.3% | 2.9% | — | 4.65 | 21.6% | 10.4% | 26 | -0.19 | — | — | — |
| Colby Morris R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .291 | 5.76 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.53 | 4.23 | 105 | 86 |
| Harrison Cohen R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.55 | 22.4% | 13.4% | 3.0% | .282 | 4.01 | 23.3% | 9.5% | 99 | -0.54 | 2.09 | 146 | 83 |
| Cole Gordon R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 22.0% | 12.7% | 2.4% | .243 | 5.20 | 20.9% | 9.5% | 83 | +1.04 | 4.16 | 112 | 83 |
| Trent Fennell R 2025 · 3.88 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.88 | 20.6% | 12.2% | 1.8% | .328 | 5.38 | 19.4% | 3.5% | 107 | +1.50 | 3.88 | 163 | 83 |
| Brad Deppermann R 2027 · 4.65 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.65 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 3.2% | .289 | 3.44 | 20.0% | 7.8% | 45 | -1.21 | 1.94 | 143 | 82 |
| Tyler Mitzel R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.21 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 3.0% | .245 | 4.19 | 22.4% | 14.3% | 96 | -0.02 | 3.95 | 142 | 82 |
| Ricardo Velez R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.48 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 3.5% | .261 | 4.12 | 18.8% | 8.1% | 138 | -0.36 | 3.77 | 166 | 82 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.86 | 22.2% | 9.8% | 2.5% | .353 | 4.73 | 19.3% | 6.7% | 54 | +0.87 | 3.86 | 106 | 81 |
| Grayson Thurman R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.38 | 19.5% | 14.1% | 2.1% | .319 | 4.85 | 19.9% | 10.5% | 87 | +0.47 | 4.38 | 132 | 81 |
| Max Alba R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.24 | 20.6% | 12.6% | 2.3% | .290 | 5.06 | 17.4% | 10.5% | 207 | +0.82 | 4.24 | 262 | 81 |
| Ben Hecht R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.56 | 22.7% | 12.9% | 3.2% | .293 | 7.95 | 14.1% | -11.4% | 13 | +3.39 | 4.55 | 155 | 81 |
| C.J. Culpepper R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.74 | 21.0% | 12.8% | 1.5% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 253 | 81 |
| Hunter Mann R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.27 | 19.6% | 11.5% | 2.5% | .256 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 135 | 81 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2027 · 3.74 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.74 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .330 | 4.97 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 101 | +1.23 | 3.74 | 140 | 81 |
| Kevin Kopps R 2027 · 4.78 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.78 | 20.2% | 15.1% | 2.7% | .278 | 4.59 | 16.5% | 2.8% | 182 | -0.19 | 3.64 | 237 | 81 |
| Jay Driver R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.43 | 21.4% | 13.3% | 2.6% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 135 | 81 |
| Cameron Gann R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.16 | 21.4% | 12.4% | 2.4% | .296 | 5.44 | 21.1% | 6.8% | 23 | +1.28 | 3.52 | 146 | 81 |
| Jarret Whorff R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.21 | 19.5% | 14.2% | 1.7% | .287 | 4.49 | 19.3% | 10.3% | 169 | +0.28 | 3.81 | 233 | 80 |
| Solomon Bates R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.08 | 20.8% | 13.1% | 2.0% | .358 | 7.50 | 22.7% | 8.9% | 40 | +3.42 | 3.42 | 134 | 80 |
| Ryan Shreve R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.75 | 18.9% | 10.1% | 1.8% | .260 | 4.61 | 15.8% | 6.2% | 203 | +0.86 | 3.24 | 290 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 26 | 21.3% | 11.7% | 1.11 | 4.77 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Keegan Thompson ('24) | 4 | 57 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 1.19 | 3.64 |