Alaska Abney — OGILVIE

Alaska Abney P Akron RubberDucks

Age 26 RHP 6'1" / 205 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118109vR 101

ERA4.44

FIP4.44

K%19.6%

BB%8.6%

K-BB%11.0%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	0	16	63	22	7	0	0%	1.3	34.9%	11.1%	23.8%	0.0%	0.56	1.56	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	0	16	63	22	7	0	0%	1.3	34.9%	11.1%	23.8%	0.0%	0.56	1.66	—
2022	22	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	42	0	50	196	58	26	5	0%	1.2	22.8%	15.3%	7.5%	2.8%	2.54	4.65	—
2022	22	A+ RAW	Lake County Captains	42	0	50	196	58	26	5	0%	1.2	29.6%	13.3%	16.3%	2.6%	2.54	3.64	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	36	0	53	234	57	28	6	0%	1.5	18.8%	13.8%	5.0%	3.0%	5.77	4.92	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	36	0	53	234	57	28	6	0%	1.5	18.8%	13.8%	5.0%	3.0%	5.77	4.92	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	Lake County Captains	36	0	53	234	57	28	6	0%	1.5	24.4%	12.0%	12.4%	2.6%	5.77	4.01	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	55	224	52	21	2	0%	1.4	18.5%	10.4%	8.0%	0.9%	1.95	3.38	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	55	224	52	21	2	0%	1.4	18.5%	10.4%	8.0%	0.9%	1.95	3.38	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	55	224	52	21	2	0%	1.4	23.2%	9.4%	13.8%	0.9%	1.95	2.83	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	0	25	94	24	2	2	0%	1.4	18.9%	2.9%	16.1%	3.4%	1.44	3.71	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	0	25	94	24	2	2	0%	1.4	18.9%	2.9%	16.1%	3.4%	1.44	3.71	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	0	25	94	24	2	2	0%	1.4	25.5%	2.1%	23.4%	2.1%	1.44	2.46	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	28	0	34	162	26	18	5	0%	1.2	14.2%	12.6%	1.6%	2.7%	5.24	5.00	—
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	28	0	34	162	26	18	5	0%	1.2	14.2%	12.6%	1.6%	2.7%	5.24	5.00	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AA RAW	CLE	22	0	29	131	23	15	3	0%	1.3	17.6%	11.5%	6.1%	2.3%	4.40	4.32	—
2026	26	AAA RAW	CLE	6	0	6	31	3	3	2	0%	1.0	9.7%	9.7%	0.0%	6.5%	9.53	7.05	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	CLE	47	0	49	207	41	18	6	0%	1.0	20.0%	8.7%	11.3%	2.9%	4.45	4.47	+0.0
2028	28	MLB MLE	CLE	45	0	48	201	40	18	6	0%	1.1	20.1%	8.9%	11.2%	3.0%	4.50	4.54	+0.0
2027	27	MLB CTX	CLE	17	0	18	76	15	7	2	0%	1.1	20.0%	8.7%	11.3%	2.9%	4.45	4.47	+0.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	CLE	27	0	28	118	24	11	4	0%	1.0	20.1%	8.9%	11.2%	3.0%	4.50	4.54	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		45	0	47	198	40	17	6	0%	1.0	20.1%	8.8%	11.2%	2.9%	4.48	4.13	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	171	73	26	0%	1.1	20.1%	8.8%	11.2%	2.9%	4.48	4.13	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		176	0	233	973	193	116	22	0%	1.3	19.8%	11.9%	7.9%	2.3%	3.28	4.19	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		151	0	200	834	165	99	19	0%	1.3	19.8%	11.9%	7.9%	2.3%	3.28	4.19	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alaska Abney (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.44	19.6%	8.6%	2.8%	—	4.50	20.1%	11.2%	97	+0.06	—	—	—
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.55	17.5%	6.5%	168	+0.67	3.88	202	88
Rob Scahill R 2015 · 3.91 FIP	28	SU	3.91	16.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.288	3.34	17.9%	10.1%	171	-0.57	3.06	201	87
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	86
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	25	SU	3.84	17.2%	9.8%	1.7%	.289	4.21	24.7%	12.1%	62	+0.37	3.84	181	85
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	26	SU	4.46	19.9%	9.8%	3.3%	.278	4.79	22.7%	10.3%	89	+0.33	2.64	315	85
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	85
Cole Johnson R 2015 · 3.52 FIP	26	SU	3.52	17.4%	8.4%	1.5%	.311	3.61	14.0%	9.2%	49	+0.09	3.52	101	85
Kyle Winkler R 2016 · 3.70 FIP	26	SU	3.70	23.1%	8.7%	2.6%	.234	3.53	18.4%	8.3%	43	-0.17	2.97	114	84
Shawn Armstrong R 2017 · 4.21 FIP	26	SU	4.21	22.1%	9.2%	3.3%	.282	3.18	26.9%	17.2%	144	-1.03	1.79	651	84
Carlos Gonzalez R 2016 · 3.78 FIP	26	SU	3.78	18.2%	8.7%	2.0%	.266	4.37	14.3%	2.3%	36	+0.59	3.75	154	84
Seth Frankoff R 2015 · 4.01 FIP	26	SU	4.01	19.6%	7.4%	2.9%	.312	4.29	20.0%	11.3%	177	+0.28	2.88	263	83
Esmerling De La Rosa R 2017 · 3.40 FIP	26	SU	3.40	20.5%	7.2%	2.0%	.313	4.86	14.1%	5.8%	66	+1.46	2.89	237	83
Daniel Corcino R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	21.7%	11.4%	2.2%	.292	4.91	19.0%	7.9%	223	+0.98	3.84	299	83
Sean Donatello R 2017 · 3.64 FIP	26	SU	3.64	17.8%	7.4%	2.0%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	141	83
Jonathan Hughes R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	26	SU	4.31	17.1%	9.2%	2.7%	.283	3.54	17.1%	4.9%	50	-0.77	3.44	219	83
Juan Ramon Noriega R 2017 · 4.45 FIP	26	SU	4.45	21.3%	8.3%	3.8%	.243	3.44	24.8%	17.1%	57	-1.01	3.44	198	83
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	82
Conor Mullee R 2015 · 3.26 FIP	27	SU	3.26	17.7%	7.2%	1.4%	.290	2.64	24.2%	16.3%	55	-0.62	2.17	110	82
Colton Murray R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	26	SU	3.97	21.2%	9.4%	2.7%	.295	4.27	21.8%	13.1%	41	+0.30	3.34	187	82
Ronald Peña R 2018 · 4.19 FIP	26	SU	4.19	23.4%	11.6%	2.9%	.273	4.52	18.7%	7.1%	88	+0.33	3.72	187	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.6	39	20.0%	8.8%	1.12	4.47
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86