Yeiber Cartaya

P Frederick Keys

Age 24 RHP 6'5" / 165 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.4 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP35OGV rank#811ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	MIX2 levels	17	12	65	2.92	3.01	30.6%	13.7%	—	K 21.4% · BB 16.9% · FIP 4.49
2025	22	MIX2 levels	24	16	98	3.75	3.10	26.8%	14.9%	—	K 20.0% · BB 17.5% · FIP 4.12
2026	23	A+BAL	18	14	72	3.38	3.63	26.2%	13.2%	—	K 20.2% · BB 15.2% · FIP 4.63
2027PROJ	24	MLBBAL	—	—	0	5.35	5.35	22.0%	17.9%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBBAL	7	7	39	5.15	5.05	22.9%	15.5%	0.2
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBBAL	10	10	60	5.00	4.94	23.3%	14.9%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$0.8M2032Arb-2$1M2033Arb-3$0.6M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 1.8, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 91%

CompsZach Linginfelter (age 24) · Matt Ruppenthal (age 23) · Nolan DeVos (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135127vR 119

ERA5.35

FIP5.35

K%22.0%

BB%17.9%

K-BB%4.1%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$8M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2031	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.4M
2032	Arb-2	$1M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$0.6M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL BAL Black	10	3	16	71	15	12	1	30%	1.6	14.4%	21.1%	-6.8%	2.4%	7.47	5.86	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	DSL BAL Black	10	3	16	71	15	12	1	30%	1.6	21.1%	16.9%	4.2%	1.4%	7.47	4.31	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	13	4	32	153	37	26	2	31%	2.5	16.4%	21.2%	-4.8%	1.8%	5.85	5.38	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	FCL Orioles	13	4	32	153	37	26	2	31%	2.5	24.2%	17.0%	7.2%	1.3%	5.85	4.03	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	12	65	291	89	40	4	71%	3.8	21.4%	16.9%	4.5%	1.9%	2.92	4.49	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	12	65	291	89	40	4	71%	3.8	21.4%	16.9%	4.5%	1.9%	2.92	4.49	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	12	65	291	89	40	4	71%	3.8	30.6%	13.7%	16.8%	1.4%	2.92	3.01	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	16	98	436	117	65	3	67%	4.1	20.0%	17.5%	2.5%	0.9%	3.75	4.12	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	16	98	436	117	65	3	67%	4.1	20.0%	17.5%	2.5%	0.9%	3.75	4.12	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	16	98	436	117	65	3	67%	4.1	26.8%	14.9%	11.9%	0.7%	3.75	3.10	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Frederick Keys	18	14	72	317	83	42	6	78%	4.0	20.2%	15.2%	4.9%	2.4%	3.38	4.63	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Frederick Keys	18	14	72	317	83	42	6	78%	4.0	20.2%	15.2%	4.9%	2.4%	3.38	4.63	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	Frederick Keys	18	14	72	317	83	42	6	78%	4.0	26.2%	13.2%	12.9%	1.9%	3.38	3.63	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	BAL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.0%	17.9%	4.1%	2.7%	5.35	5.35	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	BAL	15	15	90	380	87	59	10	100%	6.0	22.9%	15.5%	7.4%	2.7%	5.08	4.98	+0.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	BAL	15	15	90	380	89	56	10	100%	6.0	23.3%	14.9%	8.5%	2.7%	4.93	4.87	+0.5
2030	27	MLB MLE	BAL	13	13	80	339	79	49	9	100%	6.2	23.2%	14.6%	8.7%	2.8%	4.89	4.88	+0.5
2031	28	MLB MLE	BAL	13	13	76	320	74	47	9	100%	5.8	23.1%	14.6%	8.5%	2.9%	4.92	4.95	+0.4
2032	29	MLB MLE	BAL	12	12	70	296	68	44	9	100%	5.8	22.9%	14.8%	8.1%	3.0%	5.02	5.08	+0.3
2033	30	MLB MLE	BAL	11	11	64	269	60	41	9	100%	5.8	22.5%	15.1%	7.4%	3.2%	5.16	5.26	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	BAL	7	7	39	165	38	25	5	100%	5.6	22.9%	15.5%	7.4%	2.8%	5.15	5.05	+0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	BAL	10	10	60	253	59	38	7	100%	6.0	23.3%	14.9%	8.5%	2.8%	5.00	4.94	+0.4
2030	27	MLB CTX	BAL	10	10	62	262	61	38	8	100%	6.2	23.2%	14.6%	8.7%	2.9%	4.96	4.95	+0.4
2031	28	MLB CTX	BAL	11	11	64	270	62	39	8	100%	5.8	23.1%	14.6%	8.5%	3.0%	4.99	5.02	+0.3
2032	29	MLB CTX	BAL	10	10	61	258	59	38	8	100%	6.1	22.9%	14.8%	8.1%	3.2%	5.09	5.15	+0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	BAL	10	10	57	241	54	36	8	100%	5.7	22.5%	15.1%	7.4%	3.4%	5.24	5.34	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		57	57	343	1447	333	215	44	100%	6.0	23.0%	14.8%	8.1%	3.0%	5.06	4.70	+2.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	194	125	26	100%	6.0	23.0%	14.8%	8.1%	3.0%	5.06	4.70	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		82	49	283	1268	249	221	21	60%	3.5	19.6%	17.5%	2.2%	1.7%	3.91	4.58	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		58	35	200	896	176	156	15	60%	3.5	19.6%	17.5%	2.2%	1.7%	3.91	4.58	+0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Frederick Keys · 72 IPFIP 3.61 → 4.63 (+1.02)K% 26.2% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.18%	—	×0.770	20.16%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.25%	—	×1.150	15.24%
HR / BF /BF	1.89%	÷1.000	×1.250	2.37%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.61 → 4.63, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 78 IPFIP 2.91 → 3.98 (+1.08)K% 27.7% → 20.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.67%	—	×0.740	20.47%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.41%	—	×1.180	17.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.58%	÷0.899	×1.300	0.83%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 80).

Result: FIP 2.91 → 3.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 20 IPFIP 3.86 → 4.65 (+0.79)K% 23.6% → 18.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.60%	—	×0.770	18.17%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.85%	—	×1.150	19.38%
HR / BF /BF	1.12%	÷1.229	×1.250	1.14%

Result: FIP 3.86 → 4.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKFCL Orioles · 40 IPFIP 3.62 → 5.45 (+1.83)K% 31.4% → 21.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.35%	—	×0.680	21.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.68%	—	×1.250	19.59%
HR / BF /BF	2.16%	÷0.995	×1.400	3.04%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 99).

Result: FIP 3.62 → 5.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 24 IPFIP 1.94 → 2.82 (+0.88)K% 29.2% → 21.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.25%	—	×0.740	21.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.38%	—	×1.180	12.25%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.952	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.94 → 2.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKFCL Orioles · 32 IPFIP 3.93 → 5.38 (+1.45)K% 24.2% → 16.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.18%	—	×0.680	16.44%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.99%	—	×1.250	21.24%
HR / BF /BF	1.31%	÷1.027	×1.400	1.78%

Result: FIP 3.93 → 5.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKDSL BAL Black · 16 IPFIP 4.23 → 5.86 (+1.63)K% 21.1% → 14.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.13%	—	×0.680	14.37%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.90%	—	×1.250	21.13%
HR / BF /BF	1.41%	÷0.834	×1.400	2.36%

Result: FIP 4.23 → 5.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Yeiber Cartaya (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.7%	—	4.91	23.1%	8.2%	260	-0.44	—	—	—
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	84
Matt Ruppenthal R 2019 · 4.50 FIP	23	SP-	4.50	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.32	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.18	3.74	283	83
Nolan DeVos R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP-	4.21	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.66	19.0%	8.3%	111	+1.45	4.21	210	82
Cobi Johnson R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	16.0%	14.8%	3.5%	.257	4.54	19.9%	1.4%	41	-0.98	4.54	140	78
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	78
R.J. Freure R 2021 · 6.10 FIP	24	SP-	6.10	21.7%	16.2%	5.1%	.298	5.89	20.3%	0.1%	26	-0.21	5.13	196	78
Cole Percival R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.0%	14.3%	1.6%	.335	4.23	18.6%	8.6%	99	-0.10	3.58	327	77
Reid Johnston R 2023 · 5.00 FIP	24	SP-	5.00	19.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.256	5.86	17.2%	2.4%	31	+0.86	3.74	234	77
Jackson Finley R 2024 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP-	4.16	18.0%	12.8%	1.7%	.361	3.97	20.9%	9.8%	67	-0.19	3.97	150	77
Angel Guzman R 2006 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP-	4.73	22.1%	13.2%	3.3%	.353	3.88	19.6%	12.0%	91	-0.85	3.13	147	77
Alonzo Tredwell R 2024 · 4.43 FIP	22	SP-	4.43	19.3%	17.4%	1.4%	.336	4.19	22.0%	9.9%	100	-0.24	4.19	166	77
Deylen Miley R 2022 · 4.59 FIP	24	SP-	4.59	21.7%	18.4%	1.8%	.320	5.34	22.3%	4.8%	88	+0.75	2.07	185	77
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	76
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	76
Carlos Tavera R 2023 · 5.86 FIP	24	SP-	5.86	19.6%	17.3%	4.0%	.267	5.20	19.2%	6.0%	114	-0.66	3.85	263	76
Zach Fruit R 2024 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	19.3%	14.1%	1.9%	.258	5.03	15.4%	-0.2%	44	+0.74	4.29	151	76
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	75
Andrew Lee R 2018 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	21.4%	22.6%	1.6%	.232	4.44	19.1%	7.3%	169	-0.58	2.43	364	75
Bryce Conley R 2019 · 5.40 FIP	24	SP-	5.40	17.0%	16.0%	3.1%	.227	4.28	17.4%	5.6%	142	-1.12	4.22	560	75
Kevin Abel R 2023 · 5.01 FIP	24	SP-	5.01	21.1%	17.2%	2.8%	.347	4.70	18.3%	4.6%	347	-0.31	4.50	450	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	80	22.8%	15.4%	1.09	5.05
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Bob Gibson ('83-'87, -0 WAR*)	1.3	67	20.4%*	14.0%*	1.14*	4.52*
Doug Capilla ('76-'81, 1 WAR*)	1.5	73	20.1%*	13.5%*	0.98*	4.78*
Touki Toussaint ('25)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.24	5.42
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57