Yeiber Cartaya — OGILVIE

Yeiber Cartaya P Frederick Keys

Age 23 RHP 6'5" / 165 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.9 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION72 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140132vR 123

ERA5.61

FIP5.61

K%19.7%

BB%19.1%

K-BB%0.6%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 78 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL2525

CMD4040

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-1	$0.8M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-3	$1M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL BAL Black	10	3	16	71	15	12	1	30%	1.6	14.4%	21.1%	-6.8%	2.4%	7.47	5.86	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	DSL BAL Black	10	3	16	71	15	12	1	30%	1.6	21.1%	16.9%	4.2%	1.4%	7.47	4.31	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	13	4	32	153	37	26	2	31%	2.5	16.4%	21.2%	-4.8%	1.8%	5.85	5.38	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	13	4	32	153	37	26	2	31%	2.5	16.4%	21.2%	-4.8%	1.8%	5.85	5.38	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	FCL Orioles	13	4	32	153	37	26	2	31%	2.5	24.2%	17.0%	7.2%	1.3%	5.85	4.03	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	12	65	291	89	40	4	71%	3.8	21.4%	16.9%	4.5%	1.9%	2.92	4.49	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	12	65	291	89	40	4	71%	3.8	21.4%	16.9%	4.5%	1.9%	2.92	4.49	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	12	65	291	89	40	4	71%	3.8	30.6%	13.7%	16.8%	1.4%	2.92	3.01	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	16	98	436	117	65	3	67%	4.1	20.0%	17.5%	2.5%	0.9%	3.75	4.12	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	16	98	436	117	65	3	67%	4.1	20.0%	17.5%	2.5%	0.9%	3.75	4.12	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	16	98	436	117	65	3	67%	4.1	26.8%	14.9%	11.9%	0.7%	3.75	3.10	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Frederick Keys	18	14	72	317	83	42	6	78%	4.0	20.2%	15.2%	4.9%	2.4%	3.38	4.63	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Frederick Keys	18	14	72	317	83	42	6	78%	4.0	20.2%	15.2%	4.9%	2.4%	3.38	4.63	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	BAL	18	14	72	317	83	42	6	78%	4.0	26.2%	13.2%	12.9%	1.9%	3.38	3.61	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	BAL	1	1	6	24	5	5	1	100%	5.8	19.7%	19.1%	0.6%	2.5%	5.61	5.61	-0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	BAL	—	—	78	341	88	47	7	—	—	25.7%	13.7%	12.0%	1.9%	3.54	4.70	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	BAL	16	16	91	383	78	62	10	100%	5.7	20.5%	16.3%	4.2%	2.5%	5.31	5.20	-0.3
2028	25	MLB MLE	BAL	16	16	92	388	81	56	10	100%	5.7	21.0%	14.5%	6.5%	2.5%	5.06	4.94	-0.0
2029	26	MLB MLE	BAL	15	15	92	388	82	55	10	100%	6.1	21.2%	14.1%	7.1%	2.6%	4.94	4.89	+0.0
2030	27	MLB MLE	BAL	15	15	90	382	81	54	10	100%	6.0	21.2%	14.0%	7.2%	2.6%	4.91	4.91	-0.0
2031	28	MLB MLE	BAL	15	15	88	370	78	53	10	100%	5.8	21.1%	14.2%	6.9%	2.7%	4.96	4.99	-0.1
2032	29	MLB MLE	BAL	14	14	84	354	74	51	10	100%	6.0	20.8%	14.4%	6.4%	2.9%	5.06	5.12	-0.2
2033	30	MLB MLE	BAL	13	13	79	333	75	46	10	100%	6.1	22.5%	13.9%	8.6%	3.1%	5.04	5.03	-0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	BAL	7	7	39	165	34	27	4	100%	5.6	20.5%	16.3%	4.2%	2.6%	5.37	5.26	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	BAL	10	10	61	258	54	37	7	100%	6.1	21.0%	14.5%	6.5%	2.7%	5.12	5.00	-0.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	BAL	12	12	73	308	65	44	8	100%	6.1	21.2%	14.1%	7.1%	2.7%	5.00	4.95	+0.0
2030	27	MLB CTX	BAL	13	13	77	325	69	46	9	100%	5.9	21.2%	14.0%	7.2%	2.7%	4.97	4.97	-0.0
2031	28	MLB CTX	BAL	13	13	78	329	69	47	9	100%	6.0	21.1%	14.2%	6.9%	2.8%	5.03	5.06	-0.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	BAL	13	13	76	321	67	46	10	100%	5.8	20.8%	14.4%	6.4%	3.0%	5.13	5.19	-0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	BAL	12	12	73	308	69	43	10	100%	6.1	22.5%	13.9%	8.6%	3.2%	5.12	5.11	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		80	80	477	2013	428	289	57	100%	6.0	21.2%	14.4%	6.9%	2.8%	5.09	4.69	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	180	121	24	100%	6.0	21.2%	14.4%	6.9%	2.8%	5.09	4.69	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		82	49	283	1268	249	221	21	60%	3.5	19.6%	17.5%	2.2%	1.7%	3.91	4.58	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		58	35	200	896	176	156	15	60%	3.5	19.6%	17.5%	2.2%	1.7%	3.91	4.58	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Yeiber Cartaya (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.61	19.7%	19.1%	2.5%	—	5.01	20.9%	5.9%	274	-0.60	—	—	—
Wills Montgomerie R 2018 · 5.10 FIP	23	SP-	5.10	19.3%	19.1%	2.2%	.275	4.51	20.1%	6.0%	105	-0.59	4.51	153	90
R.J. Freure R 2019 · 5.13 FIP	22	SP-	5.13	21.7%	18.5%	2.8%	.286	6.05	21.4%	4.2%	107	+0.92	5.13	196	87
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	86
Ike Buxton R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	23	SP-	4.67	16.8%	15.2%	1.9%	.241	4.64	14.8%	-0.6%	123	-0.03	4.45	196	85
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	85
James McArthur R 2019 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	18.8%	15.5%	2.9%	.304	4.41	20.0%	10.7%	131	-0.63	3.53	352	82
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	82
Matt Ruppenthal R 2019 · 4.50 FIP	23	SP-	4.50	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.32	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.18	3.74	283	81
Cobi Johnson R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	16.0%	14.8%	3.5%	.257	4.54	19.9%	1.4%	41	-0.98	4.54	140	81
Phillippe Aumont R 2015 · 4.61 FIP	26	SP-	4.61	19.6%	18.2%	1.6%	.262	5.01	22.3%	10.4%	64	+0.40	4.61	147	80
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	79
Alex Vallecillo R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	21	SP-	4.75	18.6%	16.3%	2.1%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	4.51	152	79
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.16	23.1%	9.1%	200	-1.68	3.51	223	79
Fernando Baez R 2015 · 6.56 FIP	23	SP-	6.56	18.6%	18.8%	4.8%	.322	4.51	26.9%	7.8%	94	-2.05	3.45	129	78
Nick Gallagher R 2019 · 4.56 FIP	23	SP-	4.56	22.0%	17.9%	1.9%	.274	5.02	21.0%	7.0%	73	+0.46	4.10	196	78
Nic Swanson R 2022 · 6.18 FIP	23	SP-	6.18	18.5%	15.9%	4.8%	.302	4.74	18.6%	7.7%	284	-1.44	4.29	438	77
Connor Sadzeck R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	17.8%	16.5%	2.2%	.288	4.40	20.1%	10.1%	272	-0.50	3.20	549	77
Keith Weisenberg R 2019 · 4.75 FIP	23	SP-	4.75	15.5%	19.0%	1.0%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.21	162	77
Jacob Watters R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	22	SP	4.87	18.3%	17.1%	2.1%	.319	4.38	17.0%	5.1%	81	-0.49	3.85	165	76
Adrian Chaidez R 2022 · 5.75 FIP	23	SP-	5.75	20.1%	15.0%	4.5%	.281	4.96	19.4%	3.1%	45	-0.79	4.96	144	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.4	85	21.0%	15.0%	1.03	5.10
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91