Yeiber Cartaya
P
Frederick Keys
Age 23
RHP
6'5" / 165 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 1.0 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION63 act + 68 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 142133vR 124
ERA5.48
FIP5.48
K%19.7%
BB%18.0%
K-BB%1.7%
ROS IP68
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 131 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | DSL BAL Black | 10 | 3 | 16 | 71 | 15 | 12 | 1 | 30% | 1.6 | 14.4% | 21.1% | -6.8% | 2.9% | 7.47 | 6.18 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | DSL BAL Black | 10 | 3 | 16 | 71 | 15 | 12 | 1 | 30% | 1.6 | 21.1% | 16.9% | 4.2% | 1.4% | 7.47 | 4.31 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | FCL Orioles | 13 | 4 | 32 | 153 | 37 | 26 | 2 | 31% | 2.5 | 16.4% | 21.2% | -4.8% | 1.7% | 5.85 | 5.35 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | FCL Orioles | 13 | 4 | 32 | 153 | 37 | 26 | 2 | 31% | 2.5 | 24.2% | 17.0% | 7.2% | 1.3% | 5.85 | 4.03 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 12 | 65 | 291 | 89 | 40 | 4 | 71% | 3.8 | 21.4% | 16.9% | 4.5% | 1.9% | 2.92 | 4.50 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 12 | 65 | 291 | 89 | 40 | 4 | 71% | 3.8 | 30.6% | 13.7% | 16.8% | 1.4% | 2.92 | 3.01 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 16 | 98 | 436 | 117 | 65 | 3 | 67% | 4.1 | 20.0% | 17.5% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 3.75 | 4.14 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 16 | 98 | 436 | 117 | 65 | 3 | 67% | 4.1 | 26.8% | 14.9% | 11.9% | 0.7% | 3.75 | 3.10 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Frederick Keys | 15 | 12 | 63 | 275 | 71 | 35 | 3 | 80% | 4.2 | 19.9% | 14.6% | 5.2% | 1.4% | 2.71 | 4.02 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | BAL | 13 | 13 | 68 | 287 | 57 | 52 | 7 | 100% | 5.2 | 19.7% | 18.0% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 5.48 | 5.48 | -0.6 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 19.7% | 18.0% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 5.53 | 5.53 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 131 | 562 | 128 | 87 | 10 | — | — | 22.7% | 15.4% | 7.3% | 1.8% | 4.15 | 4.78 | +1.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 19.7% | 18.0% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 5.53 | 5.15 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | BAL | 12 | 12 | 70 | 298 | 61 | 47 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.6% | 15.6% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 5.21 | 5.11 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | BAL | 12 | 12 | 71 | 301 | 64 | 43 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.2% | 14.1% | 7.1% | 2.5% | 4.98 | 4.87 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | BAL | 12 | 12 | 71 | 301 | 65 | 42 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.5% | 13.8% | 7.7% | 2.6% | 4.88 | 4.82 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 12 | 12 | 70 | 297 | 64 | 41 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.5% | 13.8% | 7.8% | 2.6% | 4.86 | 4.85 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 11 | 11 | 68 | 288 | 62 | 40 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 21.4% | 13.9% | 7.5% | 2.7% | 4.90 | 4.93 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | BAL | 5 | 5 | 30 | 127 | 26 | 20 | 3 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.6% | 15.6% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 5.26 | 5.16 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | BAL | 8 | 8 | 47 | 198 | 42 | 28 | 5 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.2% | 14.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | 5.03 | 4.92 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | BAL | 10 | 10 | 57 | 241 | 52 | 33 | 6 | 100% | 5.7 | 21.5% | 13.8% | 7.7% | 2.7% | 4.93 | 4.87 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 10 | 10 | 60 | 253 | 55 | 35 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.5% | 13.8% | 7.8% | 2.7% | 4.91 | 4.90 | -0.2 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 10 | 10 | 61 | 258 | 55 | 36 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.4% | 13.9% | 7.5% | 2.8% | 4.96 | 4.99 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 43 | 43 | 255 | 1078 | 230 | 152 | 29 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.3% | 14.1% | 7.2% | 2.7% | 4.99 | 4.57 | +2.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 180 | 119 | 23 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.3% | 14.1% | 7.2% | 2.7% | 4.99 | 4.57 | +1.9 | ||
| Career | — | 79 | 47 | 274 | 1226 | 240 | 213 | 18 | 59% | 3.5 | 19.5% | 17.4% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 3.78 | 4.47 | +3.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 58 | 34 | 200 | 895 | 175 | 156 | 13 | 59% | 3.5 | 19.5% | 17.4% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 3.78 | 4.47 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Yeiber Cartaya (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.48 | 19.7% | 18.0% | 2.5% | — | 4.93 | 21.1% | 6.6% | 213 | -0.55 | — | — | — |
| Wills Montgomerie R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.03 | 19.3% | 19.1% | 2.1% | .275 | 4.55 | 20.1% | 6.0% | 105 | -0.48 | 4.55 | 153 | 90 |
| R.J. Freure R 2025 · 5.19 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.19 | 21.7% | 18.5% | 2.9% | .286 | 5.88 | 21.4% | 4.2% | 107 | +0.69 | 5.19 | 196 | 88 |
| Gabriel Encinas R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.45 | 20.9% | 17.0% | 1.8% | .291 | 5.52 | 17.3% | -10.3% | 47 | +1.07 | 2.92 | 145 | 87 |
| Aaron Hernandez R 2025 · 4.92 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.92 | 18.6% | 15.7% | 2.5% | .340 | 4.59 | 20.2% | 6.4% | 111 | -0.33 | 4.45 | 194 | 87 |
| Ike Buxton R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.93 | 16.8% | 15.2% | 2.4% | .241 | 4.68 | 14.8% | -0.6% | 123 | -0.25 | 4.52 | 196 | 86 |
| Ramsey David R 2027 · 5.23 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.23 | 18.6% | 17.4% | 2.7% | .219 | 7.27 | 19.1% | -0.7% | 30 | +2.04 | 5.23 | 107 | 85 |
| Zach Linginfelter R 2027 · 5.72 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.72 | 19.1% | 16.0% | 4.0% | .295 | 4.94 | 18.8% | -0.6% | 46 | -0.78 | 3.58 | 109 | 83 |
| Matt Ruppenthal R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.55 | 19.1% | 14.3% | 2.3% | .290 | 4.24 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 143 | -0.31 | 3.72 | 283 | 82 |
| Carlson Reed R 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.27 | 16.9% | 15.4% | 3.0% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 237 | 82 |
| Cobi Johnson R 2026 · 5.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.34 | 16.0% | 14.8% | 3.1% | .257 | 4.62 | 19.9% | 1.4% | 41 | -0.72 | 4.62 | 140 | 81 |
| James McArthur R 2025 · 5.37 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.37 | 18.8% | 15.5% | 3.5% | .304 | 4.20 | 20.0% | 10.7% | 131 | -1.17 | 3.53 | 352 | 81 |
| Channing Austin R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.43 | 15.0% | 15.6% | 1.1% | .304 | 3.58 | 23.2% | 7.3% | 38 | -0.85 | 3.58 | 109 | 81 |
| Aidan Foeller R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.74 | 22.7% | 19.1% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.45 | 23.4% | 12.8% | 50 | -0.29 | 4.45 | 149 | 81 |
| Jacob Meador R 2026 · 5.28 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.28 | 15.6% | 14.0% | 3.1% | .301 | 6.83 | 14.7% | -6.6% | 50 | +1.55 | 5.28 | 139 | 81 |
| Phillippe Aumont R 2029 · 4.64 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.64 | 19.6% | 18.2% | 1.6% | .262 | 5.31 | 22.3% | 10.4% | 64 | +0.67 | 4.64 | 147 | 80 |
| J.P. Massey R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.91 | 18.2% | 16.0% | 2.4% | .259 | 5.03 | 15.9% | 0.6% | 115 | +0.12 | 4.62 | 195 | 80 |
| Alex Vallecillo R 2024 · 4.68 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.68 | 18.6% | 16.3% | 2.0% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.47 | 152 | 79 |
| Nick Gallagher R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.78 | 22.0% | 17.9% | 2.3% | .274 | 4.87 | 21.0% | 7.0% | 73 | +0.09 | 4.09 | 196 | 78 |
| Adrian Chaidez R 2026 · 5.66 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.66 | 20.1% | 15.0% | 4.3% | .281 | 4.68 | 19.4% | 3.1% | 45 | -0.98 | 4.68 | 144 | 78 |
| Fernando Baez R 2026 · 6.58 FIP | 23 | SP- | 6.58 | 18.6% | 18.8% | 4.9% | .322 | 4.51 | 26.9% | 7.8% | 94 | -2.07 | 3.43 | 129 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 70 | 21.0% | 14.9% | 1.00 | 5.05 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |