Yeiber Cartaya — OGILVIE

Yeiber Cartaya P Frederick Keys

+0.4 WAR

Age 23 RHP 6'5" / 165 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.6 · 2029

ERA4.64

FIP4.64

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%21.9%

BB%13.0%

K-BB%9.0%

IP98

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.6peak

2029

K†5055

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2022	19	ROK	DSL BAL Black	10	3	16	71	15	12	1	14.4%	21.1%	2.8%	7.47	6.12	-0.2
2023	20	ROK	FCL Orioles	13	4	32	153	37	26	2	16.4%	21.2%	1.7%	5.85	5.35	-0.1
2024	21	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	17	12	65	291	89	40	4	21.4%	16.9%	1.9%	2.92	4.50	+0.4
2025	22	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	24	16	98	436	117	65	3	20.0%	17.5%	0.9%	3.75	4.13	+1.3
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	A+	Frederick Keys	2	1	8	37	10	4	1	—	—	—	2.16	—	—
ROS	23	MLB	BAL	18	18	98	415	91	54	10	21.9%	13.0%	2.5%	4.64	4.64	+0.7
2026 Total	23	MLB	BAL	—	—	107	452	101	58	11	22.3%	12.8%	2.5%	4.45	4.28	+1.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	24	MLB	BAL	21	21	117	493	111	57	12	22.5%	11.5%	2.5%	4.50	4.42	+1.2
2028	25	MLB	BAL	24	24	130	550	126	58	14	22.8%	10.6%	2.5%	4.37	4.29	+1.5
2029	26	MLB	BAL	25	25	137	580	133	60	15	23.0%	10.4%	2.6%	4.31	4.27	+1.6
2030	27	MLB	BAL	26	26	140	592	136	61	15	23.0%	10.4%	2.6%	4.29	4.28	+1.6
2031	28	MLB	BAL	25	25	140	592	136	62	16	22.9%	10.4%	2.6%	4.30	4.30	+1.6
2032	29	MLB	BAL	25	25	137	578	132	61	15	22.8%	10.5%	2.7%	4.33	4.35	+1.5
2033	30	MLB	BAL	24	24	133	561	127	60	15	22.6%	10.6%	2.7%	4.38	4.41	+1.3
2034	31	MLB	BAL	23	23	128	541	121	58	15	22.4%	10.7%	2.8%	4.44	4.49	+1.2
2035	32	MLB	BAL	22	22	123	520	115	57	15	22.1%	10.9%	2.9%	4.52	4.57	+1.0
2036	33	MLB	BAL	21	21	118	497	108	55	15	21.8%	11.1%	3.0%	4.61	4.67	+0.8
2037	34	MLB	BAL	20	20	112	472	101	53	14	21.4%	11.3%	3.1%	4.71	4.78	+0.7
2038	35	MLB	BAL	19	19	105	445	94	51	14	21.1%	11.5%	3.2%	4.82	4.90	+0.5
2039	36	MLB	BAL	18	18	98	416	86	49	14	20.6%	11.7%	3.3%	4.95	5.04	+0.3
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			66	36	219	988	195	177	15	19.7%	17.9%	1.5%	4.02	4.55	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—			60	33	200	901	178	161	14	19.7%	17.9%	1.5%	4.02	4.55	+1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Yeiber Cartaya (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.64	21.9%	13.0%	2.5%	—	4.32	22.8%	12.0%	384	-0.32	—	—	—
Jimmy Endersby R 2026 · 4.24 FIP	23	SP-	4.24	20.9%	14.1%	2.0%	.310	5.78	16.4%	3.7%	225	+1.54	2.86	357	95
Matt Ruppenthal R 2026 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.25	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.26	3.75	283	93
Nolan DeVos R 2025 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP-	4.17	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.82	12.3%	-1.5%	12	+1.65	4.17	110	93
Corey Black R 2026 · 4.18 FIP	23	SP-	4.18	22.1%	13.9%	2.1%	.310	3.55	22.1%	6.0%	53	-0.63	3.55	139	93
Max Bain R 2026 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP-	5.17	20.5%	15.2%	3.4%	.291	6.72	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.55	5.17	174	93
Will Schomberg R 2026 · 4.84 FIP	23	SP-	4.84	21.4%	15.6%	2.9%	.266	3.85	23.3%	11.7%	90	-0.99	3.85	206	92
Kyle Bradish R 2025 · 4.55 FIP	22	SP-	4.55	20.8%	13.7%	2.7%	.309	3.87	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.68	2.16	615	92
Zach McCambley R 2026 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.4%	13.6%	3.3%	.277	3.30	25.0%	12.6%	123	-1.69	2.58	314	90
Zach Fruit R 2027 · 4.28 FIP	24	SP-	4.28	19.3%	14.1%	1.9%	.258	5.07	15.4%	-0.2%	44	+0.79	4.28	151	90
Gabriel Encinas R 2026 · 4.28 FIP	23	SP-	4.28	20.9%	17.0%	1.5%	.291	5.47	17.3%	-10.3%	47	+1.19	2.92	145	89
Connor Staine R 2026 · 4.78 FIP	23	SP-	4.78	20.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.266	5.31	14.0%	1.0%	106	+0.53	3.85	291	88
Brody Hopkins R 2026 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	23.2%	13.4%	1.9%	.275	5.49	23.1%	0.8%	18	+1.63	3.46	249	88
R.J. Freure R 2025 · 5.14 FIP	22	SP-	5.14	21.7%	18.5%	2.8%	.286	5.83	21.4%	4.2%	107	+0.69	5.14	196	88
Trace Bright R 2026 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	19.9%	13.5%	2.5%	.314	4.43	18.0%	0.6%	99	-0.08	4.24	311	87
Bryce Conley R 2026 · 4.72 FIP	23	SP-	4.72	20.2%	12.2%	3.3%	.269	4.89	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.28	448	87
Dean Deetz R 2026 · 4.33 FIP	23	SP-	4.33	22.2%	13.7%	2.5%	.298	4.74	29.1%	10.7%	68	+0.41	2.61	281	87
J.P. Massey R 2026 · 4.96 FIP	23	SP-	4.96	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.11	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.15	4.70	195	87
Austin Brice R 2026 · 4.61 FIP	23	SP-	4.61	18.5%	13.7%	2.4%	.295	3.70	19.0%	12.0%	222	-0.91	3.45	542	87
Dinelson Lamet R 2026 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP-	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.77	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.59	1.92	778	86
James McArthur R 2025 · 5.06 FIP	22	SP-	5.06	18.8%	15.5%	2.9%	.304	4.44	20.0%	10.7%	131	-0.62	3.54	352	86

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+1.6	$14M	+$14M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+1.6	$15M	+$14M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+1.5	$14M	+$13M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+1.3	$13M	+$11M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$3M	+1.2	$12M	+$9M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$3M	+1.0	$10M	+$7M
Totals		$11M		$79M	+$68M