Jose Pena Jr. — OGILVIE

Jose Pena Jr. P Jersey Shore BlueClaws

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 200 lbs A+ peak 0.1 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 25 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 108

ERA4.82

FIP4.82

K%21.3%

BB%12.6%

K-BB%8.7%

ROS IP26

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 25 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	4	0	3	14	5	3	0	0%	0.7	35.7%	21.4%	14.3%	0.0%	13.50	2.80	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	FCL Phillies	4	0	3	14	5	3	0	0%	0.7	35.7%	21.4%	14.3%	0.0%	13.50	2.73	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	9	7	27	127	28	19	2	78%	3.0	15.0%	18.7%	-3.7%	2.3%	6.59	5.48	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	FCL Phillies	9	7	27	127	28	19	2	78%	3.0	22.0%	15.0%	7.1%	1.6%	6.59	4.09	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	14	2	32	155	31	32	3	14%	2.3	13.6%	25.8%	-12.2%	2.6%	6.68	6.67	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	14	2	32	155	31	32	3	14%	2.3	13.6%	25.8%	-12.2%	2.6%	6.68	6.67	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	FCL Phillies	14	2	32	155	31	32	3	14%	2.3	20.0%	20.6%	-0.6%	1.9%	6.68	5.36	—
2024	21	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	32	0	51	235	71	30	4	0%	1.6	22.4%	15.1%	7.3%	2.0%	5.47	4.21	—
2024	21	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	32	0	51	235	71	30	4	0%	1.6	22.4%	15.1%	7.3%	2.0%	5.47	4.21	—
2024	21	A RAW	Clearwater Threshers	32	0	51	235	71	30	4	0%	1.6	30.2%	12.8%	17.4%	1.7%	5.47	3.10	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	41	158	41	13	2	0%	1.2	19.5%	9.6%	9.9%	1.5%	1.54	3.50	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	41	158	41	13	2	0%	1.2	19.5%	9.6%	9.9%	1.5%	1.54	3.50	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	0	41	158	41	13	2	0%	1.2	25.9%	8.2%	17.7%	1.3%	1.54	2.69	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	19	0	24	97	34	13	1	0%	1.3	27.0%	15.4%	11.6%	1.3%	2.59	3.48	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	19	0	24	97	34	13	1	0%	1.3	27.0%	15.4%	11.6%	1.3%	2.59	3.48	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	PHI	19	0	24	97	34	13	1	0%	1.3	35.1%	13.4%	21.6%	1.0%	2.59	2.40	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	PHI	45	0	47	198	44	23	6	0%	1.0	22.1%	11.3%	10.7%	2.8%	4.66	4.59	-0.0
2028	25	MLB MLE	PHI	45	0	48	201	45	21	6	0%	1.1	22.5%	10.6%	12.0%	2.8%	4.53	4.45	+0.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	PHI	45	0	48	201	46	21	6	0%	1.1	22.8%	10.5%	12.3%	2.8%	4.46	4.42	+0.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	PHI	45	0	47	198	45	21	6	0%	1.0	22.8%	10.5%	12.3%	2.9%	4.46	4.46	+0.0
2027	24	MLB CTX	PHI	19	0	20	84	19	10	2	0%	1.1	22.1%	11.3%	10.7%	2.8%	4.66	4.59	-0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	PHI	30	0	32	135	30	14	4	0%	1.1	22.5%	10.6%	12.0%	2.8%	4.53	4.45	+0.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	PHI	36	0	38	160	37	17	5	0%	1.1	22.8%	10.5%	12.3%	2.8%	4.46	4.42	+0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	PHI	38	0	40	169	38	18	5	0%	1.1	22.8%	10.5%	12.3%	2.9%	4.46	4.46	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		123	0	130	547	124	58	15	0%	1.1	22.6%	10.6%	12.0%	2.8%	4.51	4.09	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	191	90	23	0%	1.1	22.6%	10.6%	12.0%	2.8%	4.51	4.09	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		112	9	179	786	155	132	15	8%	1.6	19.7%	16.8%	2.9%	2.0%	4.68	4.64	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		125	10	200	880	173	148	17	8%	1.6	19.7%	16.8%	2.9%	2.0%	4.68	4.64	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jose Pena Jr. (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.82	21.3%	12.6%	2.8%	—	4.49	22.5%	11.7%	142	-0.33	—	—	—
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	91
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	90
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	90
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	90
Sean Isaac R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	23	SU	4.27	19.5%	12.3%	2.3%	.342	3.76	25.0%	10.7%	128	-0.51	3.27	155	90
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	90
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	89
Hunter Dula R 2022 · 3.91 FIP	23	SU	3.91	22.0%	12.3%	2.0%	.340	4.54	20.0%	8.9%	91	+0.63	3.91	132	89
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	89
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	88
Brett Standlee R 2022 · 4.13 FIP	23	SU	4.13	19.7%	11.1%	2.4%	.322	4.45	17.0%	8.9%	75	+0.32	4.13	128	88
Bailey Dees R 2022 · 4.26 FIP	23	SU	4.26	21.3%	13.2%	2.4%	.248	4.35	21.3%	9.7%	278	+0.09	3.41	330	88
Tanner Jacobson R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.8%	13.8%	2.1%	.313	4.89	21.1%	5.4%	115	+0.80	4.09	168	88
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	88
Vince Arobio R 2018 · 4.47 FIP	23	SU	4.47	20.5%	12.0%	2.9%	.365	3.67	24.1%	16.2%	55	-0.80	3.67	118	88
Kyle Marman R 2019 · 3.97 FIP	22	SU	3.97	22.2%	12.8%	2.0%	.270	5.16	22.5%	8.4%	71	+1.19	3.97	117	88
Peyton Williams R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	23	SU	3.69	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.82	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.13	3.69	123	88
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	87
Davison Palermo R 2023 · 4.32 FIP	23	SU	4.32	19.0%	12.4%	2.3%	.246	5.02	18.8%	6.8%	174	+0.70	4.32	218	87
Jonathan Brand R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	4.79	19.7%	9.4%	160	+0.84	3.34	198	86

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	43	22.4%	10.9%	1.09	4.56
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19