Stephen Jones — OGILVIE

Stephen Jones P Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp

Age 29 RHP 6'4" / 230 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION64 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128119vR 111

ERA4.97

FIP4.97

K%16.9%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%7.6%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	49	201	63	19	4	0%	1.1	23.8%	11.0%	12.8%	2.1%	3.86	3.62	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	49	201	63	19	4	0%	1.1	31.3%	9.5%	21.9%	2.0%	3.86	2.75	—
2022	25	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	47	0	58	239	67	24	6	0%	1.2	22.7%	11.0%	11.7%	3.0%	2.64	4.25	—
2022	25	AA RAW	Hartford Yard Goats	47	0	58	239	67	24	6	0%	1.2	28.0%	10.0%	18.0%	2.5%	2.64	3.38	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	0	63	305	83	35	9	0%	1.2	22.3%	11.0%	11.2%	3.1%	7.86	4.34	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	0	63	305	83	35	9	0%	1.2	22.3%	11.0%	11.2%	3.1%	7.86	4.34	—
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	53	0	63	305	83	35	9	0%	1.2	27.2%	11.5%	15.7%	3.0%	7.86	3.99	—
2024	27	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	20	0	21	135	26	24	5	0%	1.1	16.0%	16.0%	-0.0%	3.7%	13.08	5.82	—
2024	27	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	20	0	21	135	26	24	5	0%	1.1	16.0%	16.0%	-0.0%	3.7%	13.08	5.82	—
2024	27	AAA RAW	Albuquerque Isotopes	20	0	21	135	26	24	5	0%	1.1	19.3%	17.8%	1.5%	3.7%	13.08	7.08	—
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	1	62	259	55	19	6	2%	1.3	17.9%	7.4%	10.4%	3.4%	3.94	4.41	—
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	1	62	259	55	19	6	2%	1.3	17.9%	7.4%	10.4%	3.4%	3.94	4.41	—
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	1	62	259	55	19	6	2%	1.3	21.2%	7.3%	13.9%	2.3%	3.94	3.51	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	29	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	47	0	64	286	86	44	4	0%	1.4	24.8%	14.8%	10.1%	1.6%	3.96	3.74	—
YTD	29	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	47	0	64	286	86	44	4	0%	1.4	24.8%	14.8%	10.1%	1.6%	3.96	3.74	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	29	AA RAW	MIA	10	0	17	74	19	13	1	0%	1.7	25.7%	17.6%	8.1%	1.4%	3.24	3.90	—
2026	29	AAA RAW	MIA	37	0	47	212	67	31	3	0%	1.3	31.6%	14.6%	17.0%	1.4%	4.21	3.06	—
ROS	29	MLB MLE	MIA	6	0	6	24	4	2	1	0%	1.0	16.9%	9.4%	7.6%	3.2%	4.97	4.97	-0.0
2026 TOT	29	MLB MLE	MIA	—	—	69	310	90	46	5	—	—	29.0%	14.9%	14.1%	1.5%	4.04	3.84	+0.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	MIA	61	0	64	272	47	26	9	0%	1.1	17.2%	9.7%	7.6%	3.3%	5.01	5.09	-0.4
2028	31	MLB MLE	MIA	57	0	60	254	44	25	9	0%	1.1	17.3%	10.0%	7.3%	3.5%	5.12	5.23	-0.5
2027	30	MLB CTX	MIA	23	0	24	101	17	10	3	0%	1.0	17.2%	9.7%	7.6%	3.3%	5.01	5.09	-0.1
2028	31	MLB CTX	MIA	31	0	33	139	24	14	5	0%	1.1	17.3%	10.0%	7.3%	3.5%	5.12	5.23	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		55	0	57	242	42	24	8	0%	1.0	17.3%	9.8%	7.4%	3.5%	5.07	4.79	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	146	84	28	0%	1.1	17.3%	9.8%	7.4%	3.5%	5.07	4.79	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		258	1	317	1425	309	165	39	0%	1.2	21.7%	11.6%	10.1%	2.8%	5.09	4.25	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		163	1	200	900	195	104	25	0%	1.2	21.7%	11.6%	10.1%	2.8%	5.09	4.25	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Stephen Jones (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.97	16.9%	9.4%	3.2%	—	5.16	17.3%	7.5%	125	+0.19	—	—	—
Ryan Cook R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	16.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.297	3.96	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.77	3.96	102	92
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	89
Pedro Beato R 2016 · 4.20 FIP	29	SU	4.20	19.2%	8.5%	3.0%	.275	3.72	18.5%	11.1%	152	-0.48	3.47	295	88
Tanner Scheppers R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SU	4.37	17.7%	11.2%	2.5%	.263	4.86	15.7%	9.0%	48	+0.49	4.37	101	86
Edwin Jackson R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	31	SU	3.77	17.5%	8.8%	1.9%	.244	4.71	17.6%	7.8%	377	+0.94	3.77	521	86
Alexi Ogando R 2015 · 5.11 FIP	31	SU	5.11	19.1%	9.4%	4.4%	.253	3.95	17.2%	8.0%	67	-1.16	3.79	132	85
Collin Balester R 2015 · 4.22 FIP	29	SU	4.22	14.2%	9.3%	2.1%	.240	3.20	21.2%	15.4%	43	-1.02	3.20	116	85
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	84
Eder Llamas R 2015 · 4.84 FIP	29	SU	4.84	12.3%	8.8%	3.0%	.261	3.64	11.3%	4.6%	120	-1.20	3.23	171	84
Bo Schultz R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	29	SU	4.30	18.3%	7.9%	3.2%	.218	3.49	15.1%	8.9%	77	-0.81	2.73	141	83
Francisco Mendoza R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	28	SU	3.81	17.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	120	82
Gregory Infante R 2016 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	19.0%	12.3%	2.6%	.333	3.43	22.5%	15.8%	120	-1.04	2.97	230	81
Ryan Doolittle R 2016 · 4.38 FIP	28	SU	4.38	13.9%	7.1%	2.8%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	4.03	101	81
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	81
Adrian Garza R 2017 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	16.0%	7.0%	3.4%	.351	5.18	9.7%	4.1%	113	+0.71	3.94	229	81
Drew Hayes R 2016 · 3.99 FIP	28	SU	3.99	13.8%	10.1%	1.4%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.35	117	80
Francisco Rodriguez R 2015 · 4.79 FIP	32	SU	4.79	11.1%	8.1%	2.9%	.281	4.04	12.1%	4.4%	139	-0.75	3.16	273	80
Jose Casilla R 2016 · 4.65 FIP	27	SU	4.65	13.0%	8.0%	3.0%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.06	104	80
Grant Black R 2023 · 5.54 FIP	29	SU	5.54	15.4%	11.3%	4.2%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	215	80
Beck Wheeler R 2017 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	15.3%	12.2%	3.7%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	173	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	64	17.2%	9.7%	1.29	5.03
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38