Stephen Jones
P
Pensacola Blue Wahoos
+0.0
WAR
Age 29
RHP
6'4" / 230 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.81
FIP4.81
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.6%
BB%10.4%
K-BB%10.2%
IP44
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
STUF4040
CTRL5555
CMD5050
K†4545
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 24 | A+ | Spokane Indians | 45 | 0 | 49 | 201 | 63 | 19 | 4 | 23.8% | 11.0% | 2.0% | 3.86 | 3.60 | +0.7 |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | 47 | 0 | 58 | 239 | 67 | 24 | 6 | 22.7% | 11.0% | 3.0% | 2.64 | 4.25 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | 53 | 0 | 63 | 305 | 83 | 35 | 9 | 22.8% | 12.2% | 3.1% | 7.86 | 4.44 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | 20 | 0 | 21 | 135 | 26 | 24 | 5 | 16.9% | 18.7% | 3.8% | 13.08 | 6.12 | -0.3 |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 46 | 1 | 62 | 259 | 55 | 19 | 6 | 17.9% | 7.4% | 3.5% | 3.94 | 4.45 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 5 | 0 | 8 | 32 | 9 | 4 | 1 | — | — | — | 1.08 | — | — |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | MIA | 44 | — | 44 | 187 | 36 | 19 | 6 | 19.4% | 10.1% | 3.2% | 4.88 | 4.88 | +0.0 |
| 2026 Total | 29 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 53 | 219 | 45 | 23 | 7 | 20.7% | 10.5% | 3.2% | 4.28 | 4.11 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 43 | — | 43 | 182 | 36 | 18 | 6 | 19.6% | 10.2% | 3.2% | 4.86 | 4.88 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 42 | — | 42 | 176 | 35 | 18 | 6 | 19.7% | 10.2% | 3.3% | 4.88 | 4.91 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | MIA | 40 | — | 40 | 168 | 33 | 17 | 6 | 19.6% | 10.3% | 3.3% | 4.92 | 4.97 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | MIA | 38 | — | 38 | 161 | 31 | 17 | 6 | 19.4% | 10.4% | 3.4% | 4.99 | 5.05 | -0.0 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | MIA | 36 | — | 36 | 153 | 29 | 16 | 5 | 19.0% | 10.7% | 3.5% | 5.09 | 5.16 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | MIA | 34 | — | 34 | 144 | 27 | 16 | 5 | 18.6% | 10.9% | 3.6% | 5.21 | 5.28 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 36 | MLB | MIA | 32 | — | 32 | 135 | 24 | 15 | 5 | 18.2% | 11.1% | 3.8% | 5.33 | 5.42 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 216 | 1 | 261 | 1171 | 250 | 134 | 36 | 21.3% | 11.5% | 3.1% | 5.23 | 4.44 | +2.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 165 | 1 | 200 | 896 | 191 | 103 | 28 | 21.3% | 11.5% | 3.1% | 5.23 | 4.44 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Stephen Jones (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.88 | 19.4% | 10.1% | 3.2% | — | 4.92 | 19.6% | 9.4% | 125 | +0.04 | — | — | — |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2027 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 90 |
| Ryan Cook R 2025 · 4.78 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.78 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .297 | 3.85 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.93 | 3.85 | 102 | 85 |
| Zack Segovia R 2029 · 4.81 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.5% | .314 | 3.37 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.44 | 3.37 | 144 | 85 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.75 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .347 | 3.12 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 54 | -0.63 | 2.31 | 187 | 85 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.6% | .241 | 3.99 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.34 | 3.47 | 149 | 84 |
| Pedro Beato R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.25 | 19.2% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .275 | 3.71 | 18.5% | 11.1% | 152 | -0.54 | 3.46 | 295 | 83 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2025 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.38 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.82 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.44 | 4.38 | 101 | 83 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.72 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.6% | .287 | 3.88 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.16 | 3.38 | 129 | 82 |
| Angel Castro R 2029 · 4.53 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.53 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .268 | 4.27 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.26 | 3.50 | 292 | 82 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2025 · 4.82 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.82 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .275 | 6.70 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +1.88 | 3.88 | 180 | 81 |
| Adrian Garza R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.44 | 16.0% | 7.0% | 3.3% | .351 | 5.10 | 9.7% | 4.1% | 113 | +0.66 | 3.95 | 229 | 81 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2028 · 3.75 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.75 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 1.9% | .244 | 4.71 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 377 | +0.96 | 3.75 | 521 | 81 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2028 · 5.21 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.21 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .253 | 3.95 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.26 | 3.80 | 132 | 81 |
| Marc Magliaro R 2025 · 4.01 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.01 | 19.6% | 7.3% | 3.0% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.00 | 125 | 80 |
| Drew Storen R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.81 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .289 | 4.32 | 19.4% | 8.4% | 10 | +0.51 | 2.26 | 172 | 80 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2027 · 5.16 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.16 | 18.6% | 7.6% | 4.9% | .373 | 3.54 | 18.5% | 9.3% | 93 | -1.62 | 3.45 | 170 | 80 |
| Joe Colón J R 2024 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.5% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 113 | 80 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.10 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 3.2% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 253 | 80 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.49 | 16.5% | 10.4% | 2.7% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 187 | 80 |
| David Hernandez R 2027 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.62 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.5% | .287 | 3.18 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.44 | 2.56 | 268 | 80 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.