Eli Saul — OGILVIE

Eli Saul P Amarillo Sod Poodles

Age 24 RHP 6'5" / 215 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 3 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 144136vR 128

ERA5.83

FIP5.83

K%15.2%

BB%16.9%

K-BB%-1.7%

ROS IP3

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 3 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†3045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	20	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs Red	3	0	3	16	3	4	0	0%	1.0	18.8%	25.0%	-6.2%	0.0%	3.00	4.68	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs Red	3	0	3	16	3	4	0	0%	1.0	18.8%	25.0%	-6.2%	0.0%	3.00	5.10	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	44	7	69	316	55	36	6	16%	1.6	12.6%	14.2%	-1.6%	2.9%	4.98	5.41	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	44	7	69	316	55	36	6	16%	1.6	12.6%	14.2%	-1.6%	2.9%	4.98	5.41	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	44	7	69	316	55	36	6	16%	1.6	17.4%	11.4%	6.0%	1.9%	4.98	4.21	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	36	0	35	165	26	15	4	0%	1.0	12.1%	10.5%	1.7%	3.5%	5.40	5.30	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	36	0	35	165	26	15	4	0%	1.0	12.1%	10.5%	1.7%	3.5%	5.40	5.30	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	Hillsboro Hops	36	0	35	165	26	15	4	0%	1.0	15.8%	9.1%	6.7%	2.4%	5.40	4.39	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	1	63	304	57	55	5	2%	1.2	14.8%	20.2%	-5.5%	1.9%	4.74	5.44	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	1	63	304	57	55	5	2%	1.2	14.8%	20.2%	-5.5%	1.9%	4.74	5.44	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	53	1	63	304	57	55	5	2%	1.2	18.8%	18.1%	0.7%	1.6%	4.74	4.95	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	24	MLB	ARI	3	0	3	13	2	2	0	0%	1.0	15.2%	16.9%	-1.7%	2.7%	5.83	5.83	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	ARI	54	0	57	241	42	35	7	0%	1.1	17.3%	14.6%	2.7%	2.7%	5.49	5.37	-0.5
2028	26	MLB MLE	ARI	54	0	57	241	45	34	7	0%	1.1	18.5%	14.2%	4.4%	2.8%	5.30	5.22	-0.4
2027	25	MLB CTX	ARI	24	0	25	106	18	15	3	0%	1.0	17.3%	14.6%	2.7%	2.7%	5.49	5.37	-0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	ARI	36	0	38	160	30	23	4	0%	1.1	18.5%	14.2%	4.4%	2.8%	5.30	5.22	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		60	0	63	267	48	38	7	0%	1.1	18.0%	14.3%	3.7%	2.7%	5.38	4.90	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	152	120	22	0%	1.1	18.0%	14.3%	3.7%	2.7%	5.38	4.90	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		136	8	169	801	108	128	20	6%	1.2	13.5%	15.9%	-2.5%	2.6%	4.94	5.38	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		161	9	200	946	127	151	24	6%	1.2	13.5%	15.9%	-2.5%	2.6%	4.94	5.38	-1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Eli Saul (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.83	15.2%	16.9%	2.7%	—	5.30	17.9%	3.5%	114	-0.53	—	—	—
Yordy Cabrera R 2016 · 4.99 FIP	25	SU	4.99	15.8%	17.2%	1.9%	.321	4.17	13.7%	2.7%	140	-0.82	3.43	159	88
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	87
Jeff Soptic R 2015 · 5.30 FIP	24	SU	5.30	15.5%	17.2%	2.5%	.237	5.52	13.6%	-1.7%	68	+0.22	5.30	124	87
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	87
Kelvin Vasquez R 2017 · 6.26 FIP	24	SU	6.26	15.0%	23.2%	2.7%	.247	5.06	14.5%	-0.2%	48	-1.20	5.01	180	87
Jonathan Teaney R 2019 · 5.65 FIP	23	SU	5.65	16.4%	15.7%	3.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	108	87
Jack Hartman R 2022 · 5.78 FIP	24	SU	5.78	15.1%	20.3%	2.5%	.357	3.99	19.5%	8.6%	143	-1.79	3.46	161	86
Ocean Gabonia R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SU	5.04	15.4%	14.6%	2.5%	.283	3.29	19.1%	10.9%	91	-1.75	2.79	144	86
Roman Phansalkar R 2022 · 6.38 FIP	24	SU	6.38	13.5%	18.4%	3.8%	.245	4.77	17.4%	4.0%	147	-1.61	4.33	164	85
Jairo Beras R 2019 · 5.47 FIP	24	SU	5.47	15.0%	20.3%	1.9%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	110	85
Aroni Nina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	25	SU	4.90	16.8%	20.5%	1.1%	.312	3.04	18.8%	8.7%	64	-1.86	2.68	115	85
Jacob Morris R 2015 · 5.43 FIP	24	SU	5.43	18.0%	19.6%	2.5%	.218	4.77	18.7%	-2.4%	46	-0.66	4.77	102	84
Tanner Duncan R 2019 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	17.5%	14.8%	3.4%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.28	123	84
Rob Huber R 2016 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.7%	14.7%	2.0%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.90	117	84
Taylor Floyd R 2022 · 4.84 FIP	24	SU	4.84	19.6%	18.4%	1.9%	.305	4.30	19.8%	10.2%	184	-0.54	3.48	359	83
Leandro Linares R 2018 · 5.49 FIP	24	SU	5.49	16.2%	22.0%	1.8%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	1.93	134	83
Miguel Nunez R 2017 · 5.12 FIP	24	SU	5.12	13.2%	13.7%	2.6%	.257	—	—	—	—	—	3.72	154	83
Miguel Rosario R 2017 · 4.83 FIP	24	SU	4.83	16.4%	18.6%	1.4%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	197	82
Conner O'Neil R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	24	SU	5.78	12.8%	13.6%	3.7%	.340	6.92	16.4%	4.1%	26	+1.14	2.89	115	82
Ryan Sublette R 2023 · 5.72 FIP	24	SU	5.72	21.4%	22.3%	2.9%	.278	5.09	18.9%	3.4%	102	-0.63	3.74	203	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	51	17.2%	15.0%	1.06	5.50
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48