Eli Saul
P
Amarillo Sod Poodles
Age 24
RHP
6'5" / 215 lbs
AA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 37 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136127vR 118
ERA5.20
FIP5.20
K%18.6%
BB%14.2%
K-BB%4.4%
ROS IP38
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 37 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | ACL D-backs Red | 3 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.8% | 25.0% | -6.2% | 0.0% | 3.00 | 4.68 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | ACL D-backs Red | 3 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.8% | 25.0% | -6.2% | 0.0% | 3.00 | 5.10 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 44 | 7 | 69 | 316 | 55 | 36 | 6 | 16% | 1.6 | 12.6% | 14.2% | -1.6% | 3.0% | 4.98 | 5.49 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 44 | 7 | 69 | 316 | 55 | 36 | 6 | 16% | 1.6 | 17.4% | 11.4% | 6.0% | 1.9% | 4.98 | 4.21 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | 36 | 0 | 35 | 165 | 26 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 12.1% | 10.5% | 1.7% | 4.0% | 5.40 | 5.62 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | 36 | 0 | 35 | 165 | 26 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.8% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 2.4% | 5.40 | 4.39 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 53 | 1 | 63 | 304 | 57 | 55 | 5 | 2% | 1.2 | 14.8% | 20.2% | -5.5% | 1.8% | 4.74 | 5.40 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 53 | 1 | 63 | 304 | 57 | 55 | 5 | 2% | 1.2 | 18.8% | 18.1% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 4.74 | 4.95 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | ARI | 36 | 0 | 38 | 160 | 30 | 23 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.6% | 14.2% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 5.20 | 5.20 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 36 | 0 | 38 | 162 | 32 | 20 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.8% | 12.6% | 7.2% | 2.7% | 4.99 | 4.91 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 16 | 0 | 17 | 72 | 14 | 9 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.8% | 12.6% | 7.2% | 2.7% | 4.99 | 4.91 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 16 | 0 | 17 | 71 | 14 | 9 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.8% | 12.6% | 7.2% | 2.7% | 4.99 | 4.53 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 167 | 107 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.8% | 12.6% | 7.2% | 2.7% | 4.99 | 4.53 | +2.0 | ||
| Career | — | 136 | 8 | 169 | 801 | 108 | 128 | 22 | 6% | 1.2 | 13.5% | 15.9% | -2.5% | 2.7% | 4.94 | 5.47 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 161 | 9 | 200 | 946 | 127 | 151 | 26 | 6% | 1.2 | 13.5% | 15.9% | -2.5% | 2.7% | 4.94 | 5.47 | -0.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Eli Saul (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.20 | 18.6% | 14.2% | 2.7% | — | 4.91 | 19.8% | 7.2% | 38 | -0.29 | — | — | — |
| Grayson Thurman R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.38 | 19.5% | 14.1% | 2.1% | .319 | 4.85 | 19.9% | 10.5% | 87 | +0.47 | 4.38 | 132 | 93 |
| Kevin Kopps R 2027 · 4.78 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.78 | 20.2% | 15.1% | 2.7% | .278 | 4.59 | 16.5% | 2.8% | 182 | -0.19 | 3.64 | 237 | 91 |
| Billy Seidl R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.87 | 18.3% | 14.2% | 2.8% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.34 | 102 | 90 |
| Cody Scroggins R 2026 · 5.62 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.62 | 17.4% | 15.1% | 3.8% | .263 | 4.25 | 18.6% | 4.4% | 59 | -1.37 | 3.67 | 108 | 89 |
| Morgan McSweeney R 2026 · 5.18 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.18 | 18.0% | 13.9% | 3.4% | .278 | 4.55 | 17.0% | 5.3% | 107 | -0.63 | 3.94 | 189 | 89 |
| Max Alba R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.24 | 20.6% | 12.6% | 2.3% | .290 | 5.06 | 17.4% | 10.5% | 207 | +0.82 | 4.24 | 262 | 89 |
| Jacob Webb R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.50 | 19.8% | 15.3% | 2.1% | .283 | 4.49 | 19.0% | 8.6% | 139 | -0.01 | 3.34 | 252 | 88 |
| Bryce McGowan R 2026 · 5.30 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.30 | 19.8% | 14.3% | 3.8% | .304 | 3.59 | 18.8% | 6.7% | 55 | -1.71 | 3.59 | 178 | 87 |
| Reid Schaller R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.73 | 20.2% | 13.1% | 3.0% | .298 | 3.84 | 22.0% | 11.4% | 90 | -0.89 | 3.49 | 186 | 87 |
| Craig Schlitter R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.76 | 22.7% | 15.4% | 3.0% | .298 | 4.44 | 14.7% | 4.2% | 171 | -0.32 | 4.07 | 222 | 87 |
| Tanner Duncan R 2026 · 5.45 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.45 | 17.5% | 14.8% | 3.6% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 123 | 87 |
| Harrison Cohen R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.55 | 22.4% | 13.4% | 3.0% | .282 | 4.01 | 23.3% | 9.5% | 99 | -0.54 | 2.09 | 146 | 87 |
| Marc Brakeman R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.71 | 18.3% | 13.7% | 2.6% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 156 | 86 |
| Cayne Ueckert R 2025 · 4.26 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.26 | 17.5% | 14.9% | 1.4% | .306 | 5.89 | 22.7% | 5.0% | 78 | +1.63 | 3.88 | 205 | 86 |
| Matt Lollis R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.59 | 18.5% | 12.2% | 2.8% | .237 | 5.05 | 19.2% | 4.7% | 56 | +0.46 | 4.59 | 120 | 86 |
| Ryan Ledbetter R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.63 | 18.5% | 12.3% | 2.8% | .338 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.63 | 124 | 86 |
| Pat Light R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.34 | 20.9% | 14.5% | 2.1% | .270 | 4.39 | 16.4% | 2.8% | 110 | +0.05 | 4.11 | 172 | 86 |
| Antonio Knowles R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.51 | 20.9% | 15.1% | 2.3% | .250 | 3.13 | 21.9% | 13.9% | 61 | -1.38 | 2.73 | 218 | 86 |
| Jake Gilbert R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.18 | 22.1% | 15.2% | 1.9% | .314 | 4.59 | 18.2% | 2.0% | 53 | +0.41 | 4.18 | 103 | 86 |
| Jay Driver R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.43 | 21.4% | 13.3% | 2.6% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 135 | 86 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 38 | 19.2% | 13.4% | 1.06 | 5.09 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |