Ocean Gabonia
P
Hudson Valley Renegades
+0.2
WAR
Age 25
RHP
6'1" / 175 lbs
A+
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.26
FIP4.26
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.6%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%12.3%
IP38
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
STUF4040
CTRL5050
CMD4545
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 20 | ROK | FCL Yankees | 5 | 2 | 9 | 39 | 9 | 7 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.93 | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | ROK | FCL Yankees | 9 | 0 | 12 | 48 | 14 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 3.86 | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Tampa Tarpons | 36 | 0 | 54 | 235 | 49 | 29 | 5 | 15.4% | 14.6% | 2.6% | 5.03 | 5.07 | -0.1 |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | 39 | 0 | 59 | 247 | 62 | 17 | 5 | 19.7% | 6.8% | 2.6% | 3.84 | 3.72 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | 31 | 0 | 41 | 176 | 42 | 15 | 0 | 18.4% | 9.8% | 0.0% | 3.27 | 2.79 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | NYY | 38 | — | 38 | 161 | 33 | 16 | 4 | 20.4% | 9.7% | 2.6% | 4.41 | 4.41 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | NYY | 38 | — | 38 | 161 | 34 | 16 | 4 | 20.9% | 9.6% | 2.6% | 4.39 | 4.38 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | NYY | 38 | — | 38 | 160 | 34 | 15 | 4 | 21.1% | 9.6% | 2.7% | 4.39 | 4.39 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | NYY | 37 | — | 37 | 157 | 33 | 15 | 4 | 21.2% | 9.6% | 2.7% | 4.40 | 4.41 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | NYY | 36 | — | 36 | 154 | 33 | 15 | 4 | 21.1% | 9.7% | 2.8% | 4.43 | 4.45 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | NYY | 35 | — | 35 | 149 | 31 | 15 | 4 | 20.9% | 9.8% | 2.8% | 4.48 | 4.51 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | NYY | 34 | — | 34 | 144 | 30 | 14 | 4 | 20.7% | 9.9% | 2.9% | 4.55 | 4.59 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | NYY | 33 | — | 33 | 138 | 28 | 14 | 4 | 20.4% | 10.1% | 3.0% | 4.63 | 4.68 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | NYY | 31 | — | 31 | 132 | 27 | 14 | 4 | 20.1% | 10.3% | 3.1% | 4.72 | 4.77 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | NYY | 30 | — | 30 | 125 | 25 | 13 | 4 | 19.8% | 10.5% | 3.2% | 4.82 | 4.88 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 120 | 2 | 175 | 745 | 140 | 76 | 12 | 18.8% | 10.3% | 1.7% | 3.97 | 3.73 | +3.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 137 | 2 | 200 | 853 | 160 | 87 | 14 | 18.8% | 10.3% | 1.7% | 3.97 | 3.73 | +3.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ocean Gabonia (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.41 | 20.4% | 9.7% | 2.6% | — | 4.39 | 21.1% | 11.5% | 113 | -0.02 | — | — | — |
| Chris Jefferson R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.49 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 1.8% | .330 | 4.95 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 101 | +1.46 | 3.49 | 140 | 91 |
| Roman Mendez R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.38 | 19.1% | 8.1% | 3.4% | .275 | 4.54 | 20.2% | 10.4% | 118 | +0.16 | 4.12 | 230 | 90 |
| Brad Deppermann R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.48 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 2.9% | .289 | 3.53 | 20.0% | 7.8% | 45 | -0.95 | 1.94 | 131 | 90 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2027 · 3.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.60 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.2% | .267 | 3.51 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | -0.09 | 3.51 | 103 | 89 |
| Jacob Bosiokovic R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.83 | 17.2% | 9.8% | 1.7% | .289 | 4.21 | 24.7% | 12.1% | 62 | +0.38 | 3.83 | 181 | 88 |
| Dakota Donovan R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.49 | 21.9% | 10.3% | 1.7% | .291 | 3.65 | 18.9% | 6.4% | 50 | +0.16 | 3.16 | 153 | 87 |
| Nathanael Santiago R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.43 | 20.3% | 11.4% | 1.1% | .286 | 3.56 | 23.2% | 10.9% | 71 | +0.13 | 2.48 | 138 | 87 |
| Joe Colón J R 2026 · 3.24 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.24 | 19.4% | 7.4% | 1.5% | .312 | 4.04 | 20.7% | 7.8% | 65 | +0.80 | 3.24 | 113 | 86 |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.85 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.24 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 116 | +0.39 | 3.85 | 149 | 86 |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.38 | 17.2% | 7.5% | 3.2% | .238 | 4.78 | 19.4% | 8.2% | 263 | +0.40 | 3.84 | 299 | 86 |
| Tyler Mitzel R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.01 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 2.1% | .323 | 4.17 | 23.4% | 17.9% | 58 | +0.16 | 4.01 | 142 | 85 |
| Blake Goldsberry R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.39 | 23.6% | 8.3% | 2.2% | .257 | 5.29 | 23.6% | 12.0% | 44 | +1.90 | 3.39 | 117 | 85 |
| Micah Dallas R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.61 | 17.5% | 8.5% | 1.7% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.61 | 147 | 85 |
| Luis De La O R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.37 | 17.0% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .370 | 3.72 | 15.3% | 10.8% | 81 | -0.65 | 3.22 | 145 | 85 |
| Cameron Gann R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.21 | 21.4% | 12.4% | 2.4% | .296 | 5.37 | 21.1% | 6.8% | 23 | +1.16 | 3.60 | 146 | 85 |
| Orlando Rodriguez R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.53 | 20.8% | 10.1% | 3.5% | .380 | 4.49 | 19.3% | 7.9% | 101 | -0.04 | 4.37 | 119 | 85 |
| Dylan Hall R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.98 | 21.0% | 13.2% | 1.8% | .305 | 7.30 | 15.1% | 2.4% | 58 | +3.32 | 3.48 | 153 | 85 |
| Will Latcham R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.42 | 18.8% | 11.5% | 2.6% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 134 | 84 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2027 · 3.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.70 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 2.7% | .232 | 5.13 | 18.0% | 7.0% | 180 | +1.43 | 3.70 | 223 | 84 |
| Reid Schaller R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.20 | 19.6% | 10.8% | 2.5% | .355 | 3.63 | 24.2% | 13.8% | 47 | -0.57 | 3.63 | 186 | 84 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.