Ocean Gabonia — OGILVIE

Ocean Gabonia P Hudson Valley Renegades

Age 25 RHP 6'1" / 175 lbs A+ peak 0.1 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 105

ERA4.66

FIP4.66

K%17.7%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%7.8%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	20	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	5	2	9	39	9	7	0	40%	1.9	23.1%	17.9%	5.1%	0.0%	1.93	3.42	—
2021	20	ROK RAW	FCL Yankees	5	2	9	39	9	7	0	40%	1.9	23.1%	17.9%	5.1%	0.0%	1.93	3.42	—
2022	21	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	9	0	12	48	14	1	0	0%	1.3	29.2%	2.1%	27.1%	0.0%	3.86	0.90	—
2022	21	ROK RAW	FCL Yankees	9	0	12	48	14	1	0	0%	1.3	29.2%	2.1%	27.1%	0.0%	3.86	0.96	—
2023	22	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	36	0	54	235	49	29	5	0%	1.5	15.4%	14.6%	0.9%	2.5%	5.03	5.04	—
2023	22	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	36	0	54	235	49	29	5	0%	1.5	15.4%	14.6%	0.9%	2.5%	5.03	5.04	—
2023	22	A RAW	Tampa Tarpons	36	0	54	235	49	29	5	0%	1.5	20.9%	12.3%	8.5%	2.1%	5.03	4.11	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	59	247	62	17	5	0%	1.5	19.7%	6.8%	12.8%	2.6%	3.84	3.71	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	59	247	62	17	5	0%	1.5	19.7%	6.8%	12.8%	2.6%	3.84	3.71	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	59	247	62	17	5	0%	1.5	25.1%	6.9%	18.2%	2.0%	3.84	2.96	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	31	0	41	176	42	15	0	0%	1.3	18.4%	9.8%	8.6%	0.0%	3.27	2.79	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	31	0	41	176	42	15	0	0%	1.3	18.4%	9.8%	8.6%	0.0%	3.27	2.79	—
2025	24	A+ RAW	Hudson Valley Renegades	31	0	41	176	42	15	0	0%	1.3	23.9%	8.5%	15.3%	0.0%	3.27	2.16	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	25	MLB	NYY	5	0	5	21	4	2	1	0%	1.0	17.7%	9.8%	7.8%	2.6%	4.66	4.66	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	NYY	57	0	60	251	46	24	7	0%	1.0	18.5%	9.7%	8.7%	2.6%	4.61	4.61	-0.0
2028	27	MLB MLE	NYY	56	0	59	247	47	24	7	0%	1.0	18.8%	9.8%	9.1%	2.7%	4.61	4.62	-0.0
2027	26	MLB CTX	NYY	25	0	26	110	20	11	3	0%	1.0	18.5%	9.7%	8.7%	2.6%	4.61	4.61	-0.0
2028	27	MLB CTX	NYY	35	0	37	156	29	15	4	0%	1.1	18.8%	9.8%	9.1%	2.7%	4.61	4.62	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		59	0	62	264	49	26	7	0%	1.1	18.7%	9.8%	8.9%	2.7%	4.61	4.23	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	157	83	22	0%	1.1	18.7%	9.8%	8.9%	2.7%	4.61	4.23	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		120	2	175	745	140	76	12	2%	1.5	18.8%	10.3%	8.6%	1.7%	3.97	3.72	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		137	2	200	853	160	87	14	2%	1.5	18.8%	10.3%	8.6%	1.7%	3.97	3.72	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ocean Gabonia (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.66	17.7%	9.8%	2.6%	—	4.61	18.6%	8.9%	118	-0.05	—	—	—
David Goforth R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	26	SU	3.98	17.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.287	4.58	14.1%	3.6%	184	+0.60	3.98	256	92
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	25	SU	3.84	17.2%	9.8%	1.7%	.289	4.21	24.7%	12.1%	62	+0.37	3.84	181	91
Confesor Lara R 2016 · 4.26 FIP	25	SU	4.26	16.4%	11.0%	2.1%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.74	111	89
Cole Johnson R 2015 · 3.52 FIP	26	SU	3.52	17.4%	8.4%	1.5%	.311	3.61	14.0%	9.2%	49	+0.09	3.52	101	89
Stephen Villines R 2019 · 3.96 FIP	24	SU	3.96	16.8%	8.5%	2.2%	.280	3.15	20.6%	14.7%	40	-0.81	2.14	156	89
Alex Palsha R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	25	SU	3.95	16.0%	10.9%	1.5%	.293	3.40	12.8%	1.8%	17	-0.55	3.40	134	88
Hunter McMahon R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	25	SU	4.25	16.4%	8.0%	2.8%	.301	5.84	5.7%	1.8%	14	+1.59	2.23	174	88
Junior Lopez R 2016 · 3.89 FIP	25	SU	3.89	15.7%	9.9%	1.6%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	128	88
Kyle Whitten R 2023 · 4.35 FIP	24	SU	4.35	18.0%	9.5%	2.9%	.296	5.17	17.6%	7.7%	37	+0.82	4.32	152	88
Jason Ruffcorn R 2023 · 4.02 FIP	25	SU	4.02	17.8%	10.7%	1.9%	.315	4.20	18.5%	8.7%	173	+0.18	4.01	280	88
Pedro Echemendia R 2016 · 4.79 FIP	25	SU	4.79	15.0%	8.0%	3.5%	.286	4.31	11.0%	5.9%	72	-0.48	4.31	141	88
Logan Bawcom R 2015 · 3.85 FIP	26	SU	3.85	15.8%	9.1%	1.7%	.320	4.35	15.9%	6.2%	259	+0.50	3.73	399	88
Alex Hermeling R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	24	SU	3.96	16.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	127	88
Roman Mendez R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	25	SU	4.31	19.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.275	4.52	20.2%	10.4%	118	+0.21	4.12	230	88
Bryan Pope R 2023 · 3.96 FIP	24	SU	3.96	19.4%	9.5%	2.4%	.332	5.20	12.7%	-0.3%	22	+1.24	3.96	148	88
Brad Schreiber R 2016 · 4.06 FIP	25	SU	4.06	16.5%	7.9%	2.5%	.304	4.23	17.3%	4.6%	57	+0.17	3.81	171	88
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	88
Austin Ross R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.19	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.78	4.41	121	87
Raul Fernandez R 2015 · 4.03 FIP	25	SU	4.03	14.2%	9.4%	1.7%	.285	4.79	16.1%	5.0%	103	+0.76	4.03	165	87
Stephen Kohlscheen R 2015 · 3.83 FIP	26	SU	3.83	15.6%	8.1%	1.9%	.311	3.98	22.8%	15.0%	90	+0.15	2.52	167	87

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	59	18.3%	9.8%	1.03	4.63
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97