Ocean Gabonia
P
Hudson Valley Renegades
Age 25
RHP
6'1" / 175 lbs
A+
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 59 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125116vR 106
ERA4.67
FIP4.67
K%17.7%
BB%9.9%
K-BB%7.8%
ROS IP60
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 20 | ROK | FCL Yankees | 5 | 2 | 9 | 39 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 40% | 1.9 | 23.1% | 17.9% | 5.1% | 0.0% | 1.93 | 3.42 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK | FCL Yankees | 5 | 2 | 9 | 39 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 40% | 1.9 | 23.1% | 17.9% | 5.1% | 0.0% | 1.93 | 3.42 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | ROK | FCL Yankees | 9 | 0 | 12 | 48 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 29.2% | 2.1% | 27.1% | 0.0% | 3.86 | 0.90 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | ROK | FCL Yankees | 9 | 0 | 12 | 48 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 29.2% | 2.1% | 27.1% | 0.0% | 3.86 | 0.96 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Tampa Tarpons | 36 | 0 | 54 | 235 | 49 | 29 | 5 | 0% | 1.5 | 15.4% | 14.6% | 0.9% | 2.4% | 5.03 | 4.94 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Tampa Tarpons | 36 | 0 | 54 | 235 | 49 | 29 | 5 | 0% | 1.5 | 20.9% | 12.3% | 8.5% | 2.1% | 5.03 | 4.11 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 59 | 247 | 62 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.5 | 19.7% | 6.8% | 12.8% | 2.6% | 3.84 | 3.75 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 59 | 247 | 62 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.5 | 25.1% | 6.9% | 18.2% | 2.0% | 3.84 | 2.96 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | 31 | 0 | 41 | 176 | 42 | 15 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 18.4% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 0.0% | 3.27 | 2.79 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | 31 | 0 | 41 | 176 | 42 | 15 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 23.9% | 8.5% | 15.3% | 0.0% | 3.27 | 2.16 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | NYY | 57 | 0 | 60 | 251 | 44 | 25 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.7% | 9.9% | 7.8% | 2.6% | 4.67 | 4.67 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | NYY | 57 | 0 | 60 | 251 | 46 | 25 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.5% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 2.6% | 4.62 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | NYY | 56 | 0 | 59 | 247 | 47 | 24 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.8% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 2.7% | 4.62 | 4.63 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | NYY | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 20 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.5% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 2.6% | 4.62 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | NYY | 35 | 0 | 37 | 156 | 29 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.8% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 2.7% | 4.62 | 4.63 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 59 | 0 | 62 | 264 | 49 | 26 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.7% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 2.7% | 4.62 | 4.24 | +0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 157 | 83 | 22 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.7% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 2.7% | 4.62 | 4.24 | +2.7 | ||
| Career | — | 120 | 2 | 175 | 745 | 140 | 76 | 12 | 2% | 1.5 | 18.8% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 1.6% | 3.97 | 3.70 | +3.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 137 | 2 | 200 | 853 | 160 | 87 | 14 | 2% | 1.5 | 18.8% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 1.6% | 3.97 | 3.70 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ocean Gabonia (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.67 | 17.7% | 9.9% | 2.6% | — | 4.62 | 18.6% | 8.8% | 118 | -0.05 | — | — | — |
| David Goforth R 2027 · 4.11 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.11 | 17.4% | 9.8% | 2.3% | .287 | 4.58 | 14.1% | 3.6% | 184 | +0.47 | 3.92 | 256 | 93 |
| Jacob Bosiokovic R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.68 | 17.2% | 9.8% | 1.4% | .289 | 4.20 | 24.7% | 12.1% | 62 | +0.52 | 3.68 | 181 | 90 |
| Confesor Lara R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.32 | 16.4% | 11.0% | 2.2% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 111 | 89 |
| Alex Palsha R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.04 | 16.0% | 10.9% | 1.7% | .293 | 3.40 | 12.8% | 1.8% | 17 | -0.64 | 3.40 | 134 | 89 |
| Cole Johnson R 2027 · 3.56 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.56 | 17.4% | 8.4% | 1.6% | .311 | 3.48 | 14.0% | 9.2% | 49 | -0.08 | 3.48 | 101 | 89 |
| Jason Ruffcorn R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.23 | 17.8% | 10.7% | 2.3% | .315 | 4.45 | 19.6% | 9.2% | 141 | +0.22 | 3.97 | 248 | 89 |
| Hunter McMahon R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.03 | 16.6% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .301 | 6.46 | 5.7% | 1.8% | 14 | +2.43 | 2.23 | 174 | 89 |
| Stephen Villines R 2025 · 3.99 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.99 | 16.8% | 8.5% | 2.2% | .280 | 3.05 | 20.6% | 14.7% | 40 | -0.94 | 2.16 | 156 | 89 |
| Roman Mendez R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.12 | 19.1% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .275 | 4.62 | 20.2% | 10.4% | 118 | +0.50 | 4.12 | 230 | 88 |
| Scott Oberg R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.71 | 17.0% | 11.2% | 3.0% | .273 | 2.80 | 22.8% | 15.6% | 188 | -1.91 | 2.42 | 302 | 88 |
| Pedro Echemendia R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.76 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 3.5% | .286 | 4.02 | 11.0% | 5.9% | 72 | -0.74 | 4.02 | 141 | 88 |
| Junior Lopez R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.82 | 15.7% | 9.9% | 1.4% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 128 | 88 |
| Stephen Kohlscheen R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.95 | 15.6% | 8.1% | 2.1% | .311 | 4.02 | 22.8% | 15.0% | 90 | +0.07 | 2.39 | 167 | 88 |
| Alex Hermeling R 2025 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.87 | 16.5% | 8.1% | 2.1% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 127 | 87 |
| Brad Schreiber R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.95 | 16.5% | 7.9% | 2.3% | .304 | 4.10 | 17.3% | 4.6% | 57 | +0.15 | 3.91 | 171 | 87 |
| Logan Bawcom R 2027 · 3.76 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.76 | 15.8% | 9.1% | 1.5% | .320 | 4.36 | 15.9% | 6.2% | 259 | +0.60 | 3.76 | 399 | 87 |
| Nick Trogrlic-Iverson R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.49 | 15.1% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.22 | 218 | 87 |
| Juan Paniagua R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.75 | 15.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .262 | 4.62 | 16.2% | 1.8% | 93 | -0.13 | 4.51 | 151 | 87 |
| Jordan Milbrath R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.04 | 19.9% | 10.4% | 2.4% | .272 | 3.57 | 19.6% | 9.7% | 129 | -0.47 | 3.26 | 386 | 87 |
| Raul Fernandez R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.95 | 14.2% | 9.4% | 1.6% | .285 | 4.86 | 16.1% | 5.0% | 103 | +0.91 | 3.95 | 165 | 87 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 59 | 18.3% | 9.9% | 1.03 | 4.64 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |