Sandy Gaston — OGILVIE

Sandy Gaston P Harrisburg Senators

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 224 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION53 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 138130vR 122

ERA5.53

FIP5.53

K%21.6%

BB%18.8%

K-BB%2.7%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL3030

CMD4545

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	17	ROK MLE	GCL Rays	11	6	27	129	31	27	1	55%	2.5	16.3%	26.2%	-9.8%	1.1%	6.00	5.63	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	GCL Rays	11	6	27	129	31	27	1	55%	2.5	24.0%	20.9%	3.1%	0.8%	6.00	4.29	—
2021	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	10	50	211	70	35	3	71%	3.6	23.6%	20.0%	3.6%	1.9%	3.60	4.68	—
2021	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	10	50	211	70	35	3	71%	3.6	33.2%	16.6%	16.6%	1.4%	3.60	3.18	—
2022	20	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	31	4	55	255	77	56	3	13%	1.8	22.3%	25.9%	-3.6%	1.6%	4.61	5.39	—
2022	20	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	31	4	55	255	77	56	3	13%	1.8	30.2%	22.0%	8.2%	1.2%	4.61	4.07	—
2023	21	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	38	7	47	230	53	48	7	18%	1.2	17.7%	24.0%	-6.3%	3.6%	7.09	6.60	—
2023	21	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	38	7	47	230	53	48	7	18%	1.2	17.7%	24.0%	-6.3%	3.6%	7.09	6.60	—
2023	21	A+ RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	38	7	47	230	53	48	7	18%	1.2	23.0%	20.9%	2.2%	3.0%	7.09	5.84	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	10	0	11	61	11	17	0	0%	1.1	13.9%	32.0%	-18.2%	0.0%	9.00	5.99	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	10	0	11	61	11	17	0	0%	1.1	13.9%	32.0%	-18.2%	0.0%	9.00	5.99	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	10	0	11	61	11	17	0	0%	1.1	18.0%	27.9%	-9.8%	0.0%	9.00	5.74	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	71	316	89	46	6	0%	1.8	22.6%	16.1%	6.5%	1.7%	4.84	4.17	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	71	316	89	46	6	0%	1.8	22.6%	16.1%	6.5%	1.7%	4.84	4.17	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	71	316	89	46	6	0%	1.8	28.2%	14.6%	13.6%	1.9%	4.84	3.64	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	47	0	53	247	75	41	9	0%	1.1	24.6%	18.3%	6.3%	4.4%	4.89	5.74	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	47	0	53	247	75	41	9	0%	1.1	24.6%	18.3%	6.3%	4.4%	4.89	5.74	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AA RAW	WSH	47	0	53	247	75	41	9	0%	1.1	30.4%	16.6%	13.8%	3.6%	4.89	4.64	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	WSH	5	0	5	22	5	4	1	0%	1.0	21.6%	18.8%	2.7%	2.7%	5.53	5.53	-0.1
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	WSH	—	—	59	269	80	45	10	—	—	29.6%	16.8%	12.9%	3.6%	4.95	5.72	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	WSH	65	0	68	287	63	46	8	0%	1.0	22.1%	16.2%	5.9%	2.7%	5.25	5.15	-0.5
2028	26	MLB MLE	WSH	65	0	68	287	64	45	8	0%	1.0	22.4%	15.6%	6.8%	2.7%	5.12	5.07	-0.4
2029	27	MLB MLE	WSH	64	0	67	283	64	43	8	0%	1.0	22.4%	15.3%	7.1%	2.8%	5.07	5.07	-0.4
2030	28	MLB MLE	WSH	62	0	65	274	61	42	8	0%	1.0	22.4%	15.3%	7.0%	2.9%	5.10	5.13	-0.4
2027	25	MLB CTX	WSH	29	0	30	127	28	20	3	0%	1.0	22.1%	16.2%	5.9%	2.7%	5.25	5.15	-0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	WSH	43	0	45	190	43	30	5	0%	1.0	22.4%	15.6%	6.8%	2.7%	5.12	5.07	-0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	WSH	50	0	52	220	49	34	6	0%	1.0	22.4%	15.3%	7.1%	2.8%	5.07	5.07	-0.3
2030	28	MLB CTX	WSH	52	0	55	232	52	36	7	0%	1.1	22.4%	15.3%	7.0%	2.9%	5.10	5.13	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		174	0	182	769	172	120	22	0%	1.0	22.4%	15.5%	6.8%	2.8%	5.12	4.72	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	189	132	24	0%	1.1	22.4%	15.5%	6.8%	2.8%	5.12	4.72	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		191	27	314	1449	309	313	34	14%	1.6	21.4%	21.6%	-0.2%	2.3%	5.19	5.32	-1.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		122	17	200	924	197	199	22	14%	1.6	21.4%	21.6%	-0.2%	2.3%	5.19	5.32	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sandy Gaston (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.53	21.6%	18.8%	2.7%	—	5.10	22.3%	6.6%	203	-0.43	—	—	—
Taylor Floyd R 2022 · 4.84 FIP	24	SU	4.84	19.6%	18.4%	1.9%	.305	4.30	19.8%	10.2%	184	-0.54	3.48	359	87
Ryan Sublette R 2023 · 5.72 FIP	24	SU	5.72	21.4%	22.3%	2.9%	.278	5.09	18.9%	3.4%	102	-0.63	3.74	203	87
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.42	16.0%	3.7%	182	-0.14	3.46	237	87
Kris Hall R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	18.3%	17.8%	1.5%	.281	7.01	12.7%	-7.8%	34	+2.38	4.63	106	86
Jacob Webb R 2023 · 4.55 FIP	24	SU	4.55	19.8%	15.3%	2.1%	.283	4.56	18.8%	8.2%	155	+0.01	3.33	268	86
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	86
Caleb Simpson R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	23.7%	17.2%	3.8%	.263	3.93	23.5%	5.1%	71	-1.44	3.57	197	85
Noah Murdock R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	19.8%	17.1%	1.8%	.314	3.18	22.5%	9.0%	144	-1.38	2.60	306	85
Tommy DeJuneas R 2019 · 5.15 FIP	23	SU	5.15	20.8%	18.8%	2.6%	.324	5.65	13.7%	-3.9%	51	+0.50	3.93	178	84
Jacob Morris R 2015 · 5.43 FIP	24	SU	5.43	18.0%	19.6%	2.5%	.218	4.77	18.7%	-2.4%	46	-0.66	4.77	102	83
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	83
Pat Light R 2015 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	20.9%	14.5%	2.1%	.270	4.37	16.4%	2.8%	110	+0.03	4.10	172	83
Sal Biasi R 2019 · 5.22 FIP	23	SU	5.22	20.1%	15.8%	3.3%	.295	7.66	15.3%	-0.2%	23	+2.44	4.68	188	83
Livan Reinoso R 2023 · 4.36 FIP	24	SU	4.36	20.1%	19.7%	0.8%	.331	5.40	15.7%	-2.3%	154	+1.04	4.36	219	83
Yunior Montero R 2017 · 5.21 FIP	24	SU	5.21	21.3%	17.6%	3.1%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	127	83
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	82
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.80	21.5%	10.0%	115	-0.58	4.73	183	82
Dakota Mekkes R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	24	SU	4.58	23.1%	15.4%	2.7%	.290	4.85	16.7%	1.8%	70	+0.27	2.94	246	82
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.49	22.0%	11.9%	189	-0.45	3.35	250	82
Josh Graham R 2018 · 4.80 FIP	24	SU	4.80	20.4%	15.1%	2.8%	.327	4.35	18.0%	10.1%	70	-0.45	2.15	254	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	67	22.2%	16.3%	1.07	5.21
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91