Adrian Pena

P DSL Miami

Age 19 RHP 6'7" / 194 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

Scout OFP40ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	17	ROKDSL Miami	5	4	9	3.12	5.52	23.1%	33.3%	—	K 23.1% · BB 33.3% · FIP 5.37
2026	18	ROKDSL Miami	17	9	28	10.93	5.74	23.5%	30.9%	—	K 16.0% · BB 38.6% · FIP 6.64
2027PROJ	19	MLBMIA	10	10	56	5.80	5.80	21.1%	20.0%	-0.6
2028PROJ49% MLB	20	MLBMIA	8	8	43	5.38	5.25	22.1%	17.1%	-0.2
2029PROJ73% MLB	21	MLBMIA	17	17	92	5.06	4.91	22.8%	15.0%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.0M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+4

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff55Command40FB velo70

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsChris Viall (age 20) · Keegan Zinn (age 19) · Janser Lara (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 143135vR 127

ERA5.80

FIP5.80

K%21.1%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%1.1%

Proj IP56

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4055

CMD2040

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	5	4	9	39	9	13	0	80%	1.7	23.1%	33.3%	-10.3%	0.0%	3.12	5.37	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	5	4	9	39	9	13	0	80%	1.7	23.1%	33.3%	-10.3%	0.0%	3.12	5.37	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Miami	5	4	9	39	9	13	0	80%	1.7	23.1%	33.3%	-10.3%	0.0%	3.12	5.52	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	17	9	28	162	38	50	0	53%	1.6	16.0%	38.6%	-22.6%	0.0%	10.93	6.64	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	17	9	28	162	38	50	0	53%	1.6	16.0%	38.6%	-22.6%	0.0%	10.93	6.64	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	DSL Miami	17	9	28	162	38	50	0	53%	1.6	23.5%	30.9%	-7.4%	0.0%	10.93	5.74	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	19	MLB	MIA	10	10	56	236	50	47	7	100%	5.6	21.1%	20.0%	1.1%	2.9%	5.80	5.80	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	MIA	16	16	88	373	83	64	11	100%	5.5	22.1%	17.1%	5.0%	2.8%	5.46	5.33	-0.4
2029	21	MLB MLE	MIA	23	23	127	535	122	81	15	100%	5.5	22.8%	15.0%	7.7%	2.8%	5.14	4.99	-0.1
2030	22	MLB MLE	MIA	31	31	169	714	169	96	19	100%	5.5	23.7%	13.4%	10.3%	2.7%	4.84	4.67	+0.5
2031	23	MLB MLE	MIA	32	32	175	739	181	92	20	100%	5.5	24.4%	12.4%	12.1%	2.7%	4.61	4.46	+0.9
2032	24	MLB MLE	MIA	32	32	179	757	189	89	20	100%	5.6	25.0%	11.7%	13.3%	2.7%	4.43	4.31	+1.2
2033	25	MLB MLE	MIA	31	31	180	760	193	86	20	100%	5.8	25.4%	11.3%	14.1%	2.6%	4.30	4.22	+1.4
2034	26	MLB MLE	MIA	30	30	180	760	194	86	20	100%	6.0	25.6%	11.3%	14.3%	2.6%	4.24	4.20	+1.5
2035	27	MLB MLE	MIA	30	30	177	749	191	85	20	100%	5.9	25.6%	11.3%	14.2%	2.7%	4.24	4.23	+1.4
2036	28	MLB MLE	MIA	29	29	172	726	185	83	20	100%	5.9	25.5%	11.5%	14.0%	2.8%	4.29	4.32	+1.2
2037	29	MLB MLE	MIA	27	27	164	694	175	81	20	100%	6.1	25.2%	11.7%	13.5%	2.9%	4.39	4.45	+0.9
2038	30	MLB MLE	MIA	26	26	154	652	162	78	20	100%	5.9	24.9%	12.0%	12.8%	3.1%	4.53	4.63	+0.5
2039	31	MLB MLE	MIA	24	24	144	608	149	75	20	100%	6.0	24.5%	12.4%	12.1%	3.4%	4.71	4.83	+0.1
2040	32	MLB MLE	MIA	22	22	133	562	135	72	20	100%	6.1	24.0%	12.8%	11.2%	3.6%	4.92	5.05	-0.2
2028	20	MLB CTX	MIA	8	8	43	182	40	31	5	100%	5.4	22.1%	17.1%	5.0%	2.7%	5.38	5.25	-0.2
2029	21	MLB CTX	MIA	17	17	92	388	88	58	10	100%	5.4	22.8%	15.0%	7.7%	2.6%	5.06	4.91	-0.1
2030	22	MLB CTX	MIA	26	26	143	604	143	81	16	100%	5.5	23.7%	13.4%	10.3%	2.6%	4.77	4.60	+0.4
2031	23	MLB CTX	MIA	29	29	157	663	162	82	17	100%	5.4	24.4%	12.4%	12.1%	2.6%	4.54	4.39	+0.8
2032	24	MLB CTX	MIA	29	29	165	697	174	82	18	100%	5.7	25.0%	11.7%	13.3%	2.5%	4.36	4.24	+1.1
2033	25	MLB CTX	MIA	29	29	168	709	180	80	18	100%	5.8	25.4%	11.3%	14.1%	2.5%	4.23	4.15	+1.3
2034	26	MLB CTX	MIA	28	28	171	722	185	81	18	100%	6.1	25.6%	11.3%	14.3%	2.5%	4.17	4.13	+1.4
2035	27	MLB CTX	MIA	28	28	168	709	181	80	18	100%	6.0	25.6%	11.3%	14.2%	2.6%	4.17	4.16	+1.3
2036	28	MLB CTX	MIA	27	27	163	688	175	79	18	100%	6.0	25.5%	11.5%	14.0%	2.7%	4.21	4.24	+1.1
2037	29	MLB CTX	MIA	26	26	156	659	166	77	18	100%	6.0	25.2%	11.7%	13.5%	2.8%	4.31	4.37	+0.8
2038	30	MLB CTX	MIA	24	24	147	621	154	75	19	100%	6.1	24.9%	12.0%	12.8%	3.0%	4.44	4.54	+0.5
2039	31	MLB CTX	MIA	23	23	137	578	142	72	19	100%	6.0	24.5%	12.4%	12.1%	3.2%	4.62	4.74	+0.1
2040	32	MLB CTX	MIA	21	21	127	536	129	68	18	100%	6.0	24.0%	12.8%	11.2%	3.4%	4.82	4.95	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		322	322	1838	7760	1921	948	212	100%	5.7	24.8%	12.2%	12.5%	2.7%	4.46	4.05	+18.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	209	103	23	100%	5.7	24.8%	12.2%	12.5%	2.7%	4.46	4.05	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		22	13	37	201	35	76	0	59%	1.7	17.3%	37.6%	-20.2%	0.0%	9.08	6.39	+8.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		120	71	200	1096	190	412	0	59%	1.7	17.3%	37.6%	-20.2%	0.0%	9.08	6.39	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Adrian Pena (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.80	21.1%	20.0%	2.9%	—	4.93	23.0%	8.2%	384	-0.87	—	—	—
Chris Viall R 2016 · 5.86 FIP	20	SP-	5.86	18.9%	21.9%	2.9%	.314	5.06	21.3%	5.8%	88	-0.80	4.89	108	83
Keegan Zinn R 2024 · 6.40 FIP	19	SP-	6.40	19.1%	19.5%	4.4%	.318	5.80	19.0%	-1.9%	112	-0.60	4.88	145	81
Janser Lara R 2016 · 5.61 FIP	19	SP-	5.61	20.1%	17.3%	3.7%	.354	5.04	17.9%	4.8%	118	-0.57	2.84	220	81
Jace Beck R 2021 · 5.13 FIP	21	SP-	5.13	21.1%	23.7%	1.5%	.347	5.32	25.7%	2.8%	50	+0.19	4.03	216	80
Wellington Aracena R 2024 · 5.43 FIP	19	SP-	5.43	18.9%	24.7%	1.5%	.343	3.94	20.0%	4.8%	196	-1.49	3.20	304	79
Miguel Ullola R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	19	SP-	4.90	24.4%	24.8%	1.3%	.239	4.54	24.8%	7.6%	290	-0.36	3.87	511	78
Eddy Peralta R 2023 · 4.65 FIP	20	SP-	4.65	22.0%	19.8%	1.6%	.342	3.96	21.0%	1.7%	86	-0.69	3.73	117	78
Luis Rujano R 2023 · 4.68 FIP	20	SW	4.68	17.1%	16.6%	1.7%	.309	4.71	17.6%	1.2%	150	+0.03	4.54	203	78
Junior Mieses R 2019 · 4.87 FIP	19	SP-	4.87	19.9%	19.2%	1.9%	.296	6.10	18.9%	-1.2%	134	+1.23	4.87	236	77
Yoniel Curet R 2022 · 5.18 FIP	19	SP-	5.18	21.8%	17.5%	3.1%	.205	3.80	23.9%	8.1%	273	-1.38	3.40	394	77
Eriq Swan R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	22	SP-	4.85	19.7%	17.3%	2.2%	.371	5.28	19.7%	0.9%	109	+0.43	4.85	132	76
Jaydenn Estanista R 2021 · 4.72 FIP	19	SP-	4.72	18.1%	19.2%	1.3%	.254	5.35	21.0%	2.6%	109	+0.63	4.59	230	76
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.13	23.2%	9.3%	203	-1.71	3.51	226	76
Trayson Kubo R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	21	SW	5.01	19.8%	15.6%	2.9%	.450	4.82	17.7%	1.4%	66	-0.19	4.48	107	76
Joseph Hernandez R 2018 · 5.37 FIP	18	SW	5.37	15.6%	15.0%	3.1%	.296	4.39	24.7%	8.0%	31	-0.98	4.39	260	75
Sunayro Martina R 2023 · 4.79 FIP	19	SP-	4.79	17.6%	21.9%	0.7%	.247	5.46	14.4%	-4.0%	90	+0.67	4.57	118	75
Alex Makarewich R 2024 · 6.15 FIP	22	SP-	6.15	19.7%	26.7%	2.4%	.425	5.15	26.4%	-3.3%	83	-1.00	4.26	110	75
Cesar Espinal R 2024 · 5.75 FIP	18	SW	5.75	16.8%	25.5%	1.5%	.300	6.38	15.7%	-1.8%	36	+0.63	4.28	109	75
Ben Peoples R 2019 · 6.28 FIP	18	SW	6.28	21.8%	27.5%	2.8%	.227	4.51	23.0%	9.1%	103	-1.77	3.56	365	75
Jesús Palacios R 2024 · 5.24 FIP	19	SP-	5.24	19.7%	20.5%	2.2%	.279	4.92	20.4%	-0.6%	36	-0.32	2.43	128	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	10.5	150	24.6%	12.6%	1.11	4.60
Tommy Byrne ('43-'57, 6 WAR*)	6.8	124	23.8%*	13.6%*	0.98*	4.39*
Roy Parmelee ('29-'39, 4 WAR*)	5.6	124	24.0%*	12.7%*	1.20*	4.75*
Bobby Witt ('86-'01, 17 WAR*)	12.3	164	22.7%*	11.8%*	1.00*	4.69*
Francisco Liriano ('19)	9.1	130	23.3%	10.5%	0.91	4.15
Daisuke Matsuzaka ('14)	4.0	99	20.9%	11.2%	0.97	4.45
Edinson Volquez ('20)	7.7	129	19.5%	10.8%	0.93	4.45