Justino Francisco

Justino Francisco P DSL Pirates Black

Age 19 RHP 6'2" / 178 lbs ROK peak 0.3 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 17 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 103

ERA4.55

FIP4.55

K%22.9%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%12.1%

ROS IP17

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 17 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Black	3	2	4	18	2	2	0	67%	1.2	11.1%	11.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.57	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Black	3	2	4	18	2	2	0	67%	1.2	11.1%	11.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.57	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Pirates Black	3	2	4	18	2	2	0	67%	1.2	11.1%	11.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.65	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Black	11	10	24	97	22	12	0	91%	2.2	15.4%	15.5%	-0.0%	0.0%	2.96	3.76	—
YTD	19	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Black	11	10	24	97	22	12	0	91%	2.2	15.4%	15.5%	-0.0%	0.0%	2.96	3.76	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	19	ROK RAW	PIT	11	10	24	97	22	12	0	91%	2.2	22.7%	12.4%	10.3%	0.0%	2.96	2.75	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	PIT	5	5	25	106	25	11	3	100%	5.0	23.4%	10.1%	13.3%	2.9%	4.44	4.39	+0.1
2027	20	MLB CTX	PIT	2	2	12	51	12	5	1	100%	6.0	23.4%	10.1%	13.3%	2.9%	4.44	4.39	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		3	3	12	52	12	5	2	100%	4.1	23.4%	10.1%	13.3%	2.9%	4.44	4.01	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		43	43	200	844	195	81	33	100%	4.6	23.4%	10.1%	13.3%	2.9%	4.44	4.01	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		14	12	28	115	17	17	0	86%	2.0	14.7%	14.8%	-0.0%	0.0%	2.57	3.73	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		100	86	200	821	121	121	0	86%	2.0	14.7%	14.8%	-0.0%	0.0%	2.57	3.73	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Justino Francisco (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.55	22.9%	10.8%	3.0%	—	4.39	23.4%	13.3%	25	-0.16	—	—	—
Jonathan Stiever R 2018 · 4.39 FIP	21	SP	4.39	22.9%	9.7%	3.6%	.308	4.25	20.7%	14.2%	219	-0.14	4.23	247	83
Carson Fulmer R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	21	SP	4.15	21.4%	11.5%	2.5%	.259	4.96	17.1%	4.0%	364	+0.81	3.88	899	79
Caleb Sampen R 2018 · 3.46 FIP	22	SP	3.46	21.7%	8.3%	2.1%	.358	3.49	15.2%	6.8%	139	+0.03	3.09	213	79
Clarke Schmidt R 2018 · 3.53 FIP	22	SP	3.53	23.1%	8.5%	2.4%	.324	3.26	21.3%	13.1%	108	-0.27	2.77	537	78
Reny Artiles R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	19	SP	4.34	24.2%	12.4%	3.1%	.419	5.64	14.8%	-6.5%	109	+1.30	4.34	165	77
Shawndrick Oduber R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	18	SP	3.99	22.0%	7.2%	3.4%	.337	5.40	15.2%	3.4%	72	+1.41	3.99	104	77
Ricardo Yan R 2022 · 4.00 FIP	19	SP	4.00	20.5%	14.6%	1.4%	.271	4.43	20.2%	4.3%	211	+0.43	3.62	300	76
Aneury Lora R 2022 · 3.95 FIP	18	SP	3.95	16.6%	11.1%	1.5%	.339	3.72	15.1%	5.9%	114	-0.23	3.69	192	75
Felix Arronde R 2022 · 4.74 FIP	19	SP	4.74	20.7%	9.9%	3.9%	.371	4.23	16.7%	7.3%	278	-0.51	4.16	442	75
Luis Serna R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	19	SP	4.34	18.4%	11.8%	2.4%	.288	4.07	21.0%	11.8%	188	-0.27	2.80	289	75
Zach Haake R 2018 · 4.13 FIP	21	SP	4.13	16.4%	8.6%	2.4%	.205	4.54	20.2%	6.8%	121	+0.41	3.44	272	75
Jeff Criswell R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	22	SP	4.14	18.5%	9.2%	2.6%	.242	5.28	21.4%	11.3%	306	+1.14	4.14	349	75
Tahnaj Thomas R 2018 · 5.06 FIP	19	SP-	5.06	23.0%	15.6%	3.5%	.268	6.04	17.0%	2.7%	61	+0.98	3.81	214	75
Richard Fernandez R 2022 · 5.10 FIP	19	SP	5.10	15.1%	9.3%	3.8%	.309	4.25	16.5%	-0.2%	85	-0.85	3.66	137	74
Anderson Cardenas R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	17	SP	4.22	17.3%	12.6%	1.8%	.319	4.04	21.2%	8.3%	92	-0.18	3.52	129	74
Miguel Díaz R 2015 · 3.40 FIP	20	SP-	3.40	19.3%	7.7%	1.7%	.365	4.40	19.4%	8.2%	233	+1.00	2.18	573	74
Jharold Clemente R 2023 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	17.5%	13.6%	3.0%	.258	5.11	13.3%	4.3%	92	+0.14	4.09	116	73
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	73
Carlos Jimenez R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP-	4.08	20.6%	12.9%	2.0%	.274	5.21	20.4%	-0.0%	141	+1.13	4.07	257	73
Marco Raya R 2022 · 4.77 FIP	19	SP	4.77	21.4%	10.3%	4.0%	.250	4.44	19.5%	8.3%	254	-0.33	3.99	380	73