Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 21 | ROK | Idaho Falls Chukars | 7 | 6 | 15 | 58 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 86% | 2.2 | 16.4% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 2.4% | 1.76 | 4.13 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | ROK | Idaho Falls Chukars | 7 | 6 | 15 | 58 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 86% | 2.2 | 24.1% | 6.9% | 17.2% | 1.7% | 1.76 | 2.90 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A | Lexington Legends | 18 | 18 | 76 | 315 | 90 | 36 | 2 | 100% | 4.2 | 21.1% | 13.5% | 7.7% | 0.7% | 2.85 | 3.40 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A | Lexington Legends | 18 | 18 | 76 | 315 | 90 | 36 | 2 | 100% | 4.2 | 28.6% | 11.4% | 17.1% | 0.6% | 2.85 | 2.49 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 14 | 54 | 221 | 58 | 23 | 9 | 93% | 3.6 | 18.8% | 13.2% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 3.35 | 6.31 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 14 | 54 | 221 | 58 | 23 | 9 | 93% | 3.6 | 26.2% | 10.4% | 15.8% | 4.1% | 3.35 | 4.40 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 4 levels | 25 | 7 | 56 | 263 | 59 | 28 | 5 | 28% | 2.2 | 15.6% | 12.0% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 4.82 | 4.87 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 4 levels | 25 | 7 | 56 | 263 | 59 | 28 | 5 | 28% | 2.2 | 22.4% | 10.6% | 11.8% | 1.9% | 4.82 | 3.65 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 4 levels | 16 | 14 | 69 | 301 | 63 | 26 | 9 | 88% | 4.3 | 16.8% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 2.8% | 4.83 | 4.38 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 4 levels | 16 | 14 | 69 | 301 | 63 | 26 | 9 | 88% | 4.3 | 20.9% | 8.6% | 12.3% | 3.0% | 4.83 | 4.10 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 4 | 49 | 227 | 56 | 31 | 6 | 11% | 1.4 | 20.8% | 14.8% | 6.1% | 2.6% | 5.11 | 4.62 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 4 | 49 | 227 | 56 | 31 | 6 | 11% | 1.4 | 24.7% | 13.7% | 11.0% | 2.6% | 5.11 | 4.30 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | PHI | 5 | 5 | 29 | 124 | 28 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.5% | 10.7% | 11.8% | 2.9% | 4.52 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | PHI | 5 | 5 | 28 | 116 | 26 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 5.5 | 22.2% | 10.8% | 11.4% | 3.1% | 4.60 | 4.68 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | PHI | 2 | 2 | 9 | 38 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 4.5 | 22.2% | 10.8% | 11.4% | 3.1% | 4.60 | 4.68 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 1 | 1 | 9 | 36 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 8.6 | 22.3% | 10.8% | 11.4% | 3.1% | 4.60 | 4.29 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 186 | 93 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.3% | 10.8% | 11.4% | 3.1% | 4.60 | 4.29 | +2.6 | ||
| Career | — | 116 | 63 | 319 | 1385 | 257 | 169 | 38 | 54% | 2.7 | 18.5% | 12.2% | 6.3% | 2.7% | 4.01 | 4.59 | +3.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 73 | 39 | 200 | 868 | 161 | 106 | 24 | 54% | 2.7 | 18.5% | 12.2% | 6.3% | 2.7% | 4.01 | 4.59 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Zach Haake (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.52 | 22.5% | 10.7% | 2.9% | — | 4.68 | 22.2% | 11.4% | 28 | +0.16 | — | — | — |
| Carlos Frías R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.59 | 16.9% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .369 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.64 | 204 | 73 |
| Esmil Rogers R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.51 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .348 | 2.88 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.63 | 2.88 | 199 | 72 |
| Steve Johnson R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.30 | 20.3% | 8.9% | 3.2% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 152 | 70 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 69 |
| Bud Norris R 2027 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 69 |
| Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.84 | 17.3% | 10.9% | 1.5% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 272 | 69 |
| Mike Wright Jr. R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.76 | 19.9% | 7.2% | 2.6% | .347 | 3.99 | 17.6% | 7.3% | 169 | +0.23 | 3.73 | 725 | 67 |
| Ramon Delgado R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.73 | 13.8% | 5.9% | 3.7% | .332 | 4.45 | 11.2% | 7.2% | 74 | -0.28 | 4.45 | 135 | 66 |
| Justin Masterson R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.06 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .307 | 3.76 | 17.3% | 6.4% | 196 | -0.30 | 3.51 | 269 | 66 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2028 · 4.02 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.02 | 15.1% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.39 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 270 | -0.63 | 3.19 | 485 | 66 |
| Aldo Montes R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.41 | 18.2% | 10.6% | 2.8% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.41 | 210 | 65 |
| Tim Dillard R 2029 · 3.70 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.70 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.83 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 144 | +0.13 | 3.15 | 352 | 65 |
| Trevor Cahill R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.10 | 22.8% | 11.5% | 4.5% | .321 | 4.41 | 21.3% | 11.7% | 251 | -0.69 | 3.33 | 556 | 65 |
| Paul Clemens R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.76 | 14.9% | 11.0% | 2.8% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.76 | 247 | 64 |
| Mike Bolsinger R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.30 | 20.2% | 9.4% | 3.1% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 327 | 64 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.88 | 15.8% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 221 | 64 |
| Nathan Eovaldi R 2026 · 5.49 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.49 | 23.2% | 11.6% | 5.2% | .309 | 3.24 | 24.6% | 20.4% | 340 | -2.25 | 2.49 | 1,354 | 64 |
| Dinelson Lamet R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.82 | 27.3% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .339 | 4.62 | 20.9% | 7.7% | 176 | +0.80 | 2.21 | 778 | 64 |
| Mayckol Guaipe R 2025 · 3.74 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.74 | 26.0% | 7.6% | 3.4% | .432 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.88 | 136 | 63 |
| Bradin Hagens R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.85 | 14.9% | 9.9% | 3.2% | .341 | 5.33 | 13.2% | 0.6% | 66 | +0.48 | 3.78 | 254 | 63 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 28 | 22.4% | 10.7% | 1.16 | 4.56 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Keegan Thompson ('24) | 4 | 57 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 1.19 | 3.64 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |